Article: Twins Can Improve Rotation Through Free Agency

[Parker Hageman]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=2305-Twins-rotation-needs-strikeouts

[jay]

We know Target Field favors RH pull hitters. If Lincecum is giving up his homers to RH pull hitters, he sure doesn't sound like a very good fit...

 

I have a hard time believing that any team (especially the Twins) will be able to sign Ervin away from the Royals without a significant overpay. Some will argue that doesn't matter given our payroll situation.

 

I'd rather remember the old Johan than this Johan. His odds of being even effective again are exceptionally low. I'd like to see someone with at least a little more certainty. If he's a third acquisition, it could make some sense.

 

Phil Hughes looks like the best option in this group to me.

[Rosterman]

Hughes could be a good long-term option if the Twins are willing to go 3-5 years and trust their instincts, Johann would be a public relations plus and should be considered...even if he throws no innings, he'd be worth more to the team than Scott Baker last year and Nick Blackburn this year.

 

What is truly amazing is how Terry Ryan did doge a bullet with so many of the 2013-class of free agent starters tanking in their own overpaid ways.

[Tibs]

I wouldn't mind signing Hughes and taking a chance on Big Time Timmy Jim and Johan. I would assume Lincecum working with our pitching staff would result in less walks. He would also be someone fans could get excited to see, even if he isn't what he used to be.

[SpitefulRabbit617]

Sign them all except Phil Hughes. We need one pticher to tee off of.

[ThePuck]

 

What is truly amazing is how Terry Ryan did doge a bullet with so many of the 2013-class of free agent starters tanking in their own overpaid ways.

 

IMO, that's hardly amazing. Terry Ryan would have to actually 'overpay' first before he could get burnt by overpaying.

[OldTwinky]

The Twins won't even pursue any of these guys. I would bet the farm on it. They will sign a couple bums or maybe only 1 FA starter this off season but they won't be a guy who misses bats at an MLB average or higher. It just won't happen because those guys want $$$. Terry Ryan is simply in a competition with himself to shrink payroll as much as possible, judge him by his actions not his words because they are to completely different things, and that is the only logical reason for his actions since returning to the GM's chair.

[Badsmerf]

I would be on board with all these guys. Free agency is so long away.....

[Willihammer]

Part of that may have to do with facing the beasts of the AL East while another half of that is performing in Yankee Stadium with the favorable hitting conditions. How badly has Yankee Stadium victimized him? Since 2000, Hughes’ home run-to-fly ball ratio of 13.1% has been the 14th highest in baseball among those with 300 innings. Meanwhile, away from Yankee Stadium, Hughes has had a 7% home run-to-fly ball ratio, the second-lowest among starting pitchers (only Clayton Kershaw is better). Clearly, moving him away from the Bronx and say moving into a home run suppressing venue like Target Field would be in his best interest.

 

I wonder about this.

 

A quick glance at ESPN's HR tracker for 2013 shows a 351 foot "Just enough" home run to right field by Chris Parmelee on July 1:

 

ESPN Home Run Tracker :: Player and Field Detail

 

This is the shortest home run hit to right field at TF this year.

 

Hughes has allowed 2 home runs in Yankee Stadium shorter than that distance this year, of the 23 total he's allowed. And its possible both of those would have hit the wall and gone for doubles at Target Field.

[jay]

I wonder about this.

 

A quick glance at ESPN's HR tracker for 2013 shows a 351 foot "Just enough" home run to right field by Chris Parmelee on July 1:

 

ESPN Home Run Tracker :: Player and Field Detail

 

This is the shortest home run hit to right field at TF this year.

 

Hughes has allowed 2 home runs in Yankee Stadium shorter than that distance this year, of the 23 total he's allowed. And its possible both of those would have hit the wall and gone for doubles at Target Field.

 

Without narrowing the sample size down that far, there's plenty of evidence to make it more than reasonable to assume Hughes would give up fewer homers to RF if pitching in TF.

 

Park factors provide easy numbers (118 in NY vs 90 in MN). Guts! | FanGraphs Baseball

 

Using this with the Target Field overlay provides an easy visual. ESPN Home Run Tracker :: Player and Field Detail

 

We also know the walls are both farther and higher in TF and the wind commonly comes in from right field.

[Steve Penz]

Does anybody have guesses on what kind of $ these guys will demand?

[Parker Hageman]

Does anybody have guesses on what kind of $ these guys will demand?

 

We will have a complete estimate on all the free agents in our forthcoming GM Handbook, which will come out shortly after the World Series.

[jay]

We will have a complete estimate on all the free agents in our forthcoming GM Handbook, which will come out shortly after the World Series.

 

Mmmmmmm, salivation.

[old nurse]

IMO, that's hardly amazing. Terry Ryan would have to actually 'overpay' first before he could get burnt by overpaying.

 

Ryan gets no credit for knowing what he was doing in picking through the bottom half of the pile. He overpaid on Correia with a 2 year contract.

[ThePuck]

Ryan gets no credit for knowing what he was doing in picking through the bottom half of the pile. He overpaid on Correia with a 2 year contract.

 

Well, Correia has already outplayed this years contract by 1.1M, so we can't really say that.

 

In any event, 2yrs/10M is only considered overpaying in the FA market by the cheapest of teams...it's like telling someone they overpaid because they spent 1 dollar when they could have paid 98 cents. It's not even worth bringing up as overpaying....cause it's a dollar.

[2wins87]

Without narrowing the sample size down that far, there's plenty of evidence to make it more than reasonable to assume Hughes would give up fewer homers to RF if pitching in TF. Park factors provide easy numbers (118 in NY vs 90 in MN). Guts! | FanGraphs BaseballUsing this with the Target Field overlay provides an easy visual. ESPN Home Run Tracker :: Player and Field DetailWe also know the walls are both farther and higher in TF and the wind commonly comes in from right field.

 

And how about, according to the same ESPN home run tracker, hughes has given up 5 homers in Yankee stadium (all to right field) that would have been a home run in 8 or fewer parks under "normal" conditions (including one that shouldn't have even been a home run in Yankees Stadium). I think it's reasonable to assume that none of those would have been home runs at Target Field.

[Parker Hageman]

He overpaid on Correia with a 2 year contract.

 

Depending on how much stock you place on Fangraphs.com's valuation system, Correia has actually outperformed his first year of his contract. He is being paid $4.5M meanwhile he has been valued at $5.6M.

 

There is a definite possibility he under-performs the second year of his deal but, so far, it ain't all bad.

[ThePuck]

Depending on how much stock you place on Fangraphs.com's valuation system, Correia has actually outperformed his first year of his contract. He is being paid $4.5M meanwhile he has been valued at $5.6M.

 

There is a definite possibility he under-performs the second year of his deal but, so far, it ain't all bad.

 

Even if he does, it's 5.5M...that's nothing for a FA pitcher. No one is going to say, wow, they overpaid him by 2 or 3M over the life of his contract, what an overpay! :-) It would fall under the 'technicality an overpay', but seriously absolutely no big deal at all.

[2wins87]

Also add Josh Johnson to the list of interesting free agents who can miss bats but is difficult to value.

 

Looks like a good "buy low" candidate due to bad luck.

[Mike Sixel]

He may or may not be overpaid, but he's hardly the answer to building a strong rotation as your leader.....that's my issue (and the 2nd year, which I still don't get).

[Mike Sixel]

On Tanaka today:

What is your take on the ceiling for Tanaka? Most seem to think he can be a #2, not quite Darvish, but still a high level SP, what say you?

[h=6]Klaw (1:44 PM)

[/h]

 

I have not seen him myself. What I have heard from scouts is that he's less than that.

[nicksaviking]

Ryan gets no credit for knowing what he was doing in picking through the bottom half of the pile. He overpaid on Correia with a 2 year contract.

 

That's the issue though. Why was he looking at the bottom of the pile in the first place when he had yet to grab a needed asset from the middle? Note I didn't say top.

[Major League Ready]

Ryan gets no credit for knowing what he was doing in picking through the bottom half of the pile. He overpaid on Correia with a 2 year contract.

 

He looks like a pretty good value to me. I remember quite a few people advocating for Dempster & Blanton. Jackson got 4/52M. He is 7-15 w/4.91 ERA. Dempster got 2/26.5M. He is 8-9 w/4.79 ERA. Correia @ 2/10 is 9-10 w/4.18 ERA.

 

We could also talk about the long list of guys that got contracts for 50-100% more annually who's numbers are worse, in some cases much worse, than Correia.

 

It's easy to talk about FA in the abstract and say the Twins refuse to get it done. There a re a few problems with that position. First, there really were only a couple FA SPs that there were highly sought after. If there ever would be a correct time for the Twins to go out and sign a $25M/yr FA SP to a six-year deal, this phase of rebuilding is a s far away from the right time as possible. We also don't have the supporting cast, in other words, we have a bad team and that makes it even harder.

 

Sanchez, the other prime taget stayed with his old team. Should we have significantly overpaid for 5 years. Again, not now, at least not on a long-term deal. The vast majority of the others have failed. Nobody expected Feldman and Colon to be great. So, what could they have realistically done?

 

How about the top FA position players from last year.

Josh Hamilton 5/125 - 236 .297 .422 .719

 

Michael Bourne 4/48 - 262 .315 .344 .659

 

BJ Upton 5/75 - 199 .281 .314 .595

 

Nick Swisher 4/48 - 237 .333 .392 .726

 

At least Doumit & Willingham were good in the first years of their contracts.

Doumit 275 .320 .461 .781

Willingham 3/21 260 .366 .524 .890

 

As fans, we have the luxury of complaining when GMs don't go out on a limb and sign high dollar free agents and then also complain when they don't pan out and the team is stuck with their poor performance and anchor contracts.

[beckmt]

Would be good with Lincecum or Johnson. Hughes will have to be overpaid to come here. Erwin Santana = no chance and Johan Santana would be a big risk and he still may want to pitch in a major venue. Pelfrey might work as a 4-5 type. Correira will be here along with one of Albers or Diamond. Twins need a front line upgrade for at least one to two years, best chance of that is Johnson. Lincecum might even be qualified with an offer. It is what the state of pitching will be with clubs getting about $25 million in additional revenue next year.

[DAM DC Twins Fans]

He looks like a pretty good value to me. I remember quite a few people advocating for Dempster & Blanton. Jackson got 4/52M. He is 7-15 w/4.91 ERA. Dempster got 2/26.5M. He is 8-9 w/4.79 ERA. Correia @ 2/10 is 9-10 w/4.18 ERA.

 

We could also talk about the long list of guys that got contracts for 50-100% more annually who's numbers are worse, in some cases much worse, than Correia.

 

It's easy to talk about FA in the abstract and say the Twins refuse to get it done. There a re a few problems with that position. First, there really were only a couple FA SPs that there were highly sought after. If there ever would be a correct time for the Twins to go out and sign a $25M/yr FA SP to a six-year deal, this phase of rebuilding is a s far away from the right time as possible. We also don't have the supporting cast, in other words, we have a bad team and that makes it even harder.

 

Sanchez, the other prime taget stayed with his old team. Should we have significantly overpaid for 5 years. Again, not now, at least not on a long-term deal. The vast majority of the others have failed. Nobody expected Feldman and Colon to be great. So, what could they have realistically done?

 

 

I agree--this year's class is no better. Lincecum is on a 3 year downtrend. Hughes and Johnson may be worth a gamble--but 3 year 25mill is the max. Don't expect either to be better than 10-12 wins and an ERA of 4.5...pretty much what we got for Corriea...free agency is not the way to go.

[Willihammer]

Without narrowing the sample size down that far, there's plenty of evidence to make it more than reasonable to assume Hughes would give up fewer homers to RF if pitching in TF.

 

Park factors provide easy numbers (118 in NY vs 90 in MN). Guts! | FanGraphs Baseball

 

Using this with the Target Field overlay provides an easy visual. ESPN Home Run Tracker :: Player and Field Detail

 

We also know the walls are both farther and higher in TF and the wind commonly comes in from right field.

 

I pulled the HRs hit at Yankees Stadium since 2009. Hughes has allowed 40 HRs that were pulled to the right side (under 90 degree horizontal angle).

 

Of these, 10 have a Park # greater than 26. Meaning, 10 would be home runs in TF and 30 would not (using fangraphs' Park Factor for TF, it is the 4th most difficult park for LH HR power). That is 6 HRs per year, on average, which might have been saved playing at TF instead of New Yankee Stadium.

 

I admit that's more than I expected, but I'm still skeptical TF would turn Hughes into a substantially better pitcher than the 4.5 ERA guy he's been to this point. Freddy Garcia, another RH flyball guy, managed a 4.5 ERA for the Yankees in two seasons too.

 

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B5pIzP28qdp-TkdVUGRsZXYzNk0/edit?usp=sharing

[old nurse]

That's the issue though. Why was he looking at the bottom of the pile in the first place when he had yet to grab a needed asset from the middle? Note I didn't say top.

 

The middle of the pile sucked, too. If you think you can get a player in search of a championship to the Twins with no other additions, then it is pointless to discuss why they did not sign a top level pitcher.

[jay]

I pulled the HRs hit at Yankees Stadium since 2009. Hughes has allowed 40 HRs that were pulled to the right side (under 90 degree horizontal angle).

 

Of these, 10 have a Park # greater than 26. Meaning, 10 would be home runs in TF and 30 would not (using fangraphs' Park Factor for TF, it is the 4th most difficult park for LH HR power). That is 6 HRs per year, on average, which might have been saved playing at TF instead of New Yankee Stadium.

 

I admit that's more than I expected, but I'm still skeptical TF would turn Hughes into a substantially better pitcher than the 4.5 ERA guy he's been to this point. Freddy Garcia, another RH flyball guy, managed a 4.5 ERA for the Yankees in two seasons too.

 

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B5pIzP28qdp-TkdVUGRsZXYzNk0/edit?usp=sharing

 

If we assume all 30 of those HRs would be doubles instead, they are worth .825 runs less a piece and Hughes would have given up 25 fewer runs over the last 5 years. He's pitched 665 innings since 2009 and allowed 323 runs for an ERA of 4.37.

 

So, while 25 fewer runs is a 4.03 ERA, it would be even lower if we assumed some of those to be caught as outs instead of doubles. I see a lot to like.

[Willihammer]

If we assume all 30 of those HRs would be doubles instead, they are worth .825 runs less a piece and Hughes would have given up 25 fewer runs over the last 5 years. Forgive if this isn't exact not knowing what numbers you used... he's pitched 665 innings since 2009 and allowed 323 runs for an ERA of 4.37. So, while 25 fewer runs is a 4.03 ERA, it would be even lower if we assumed some of those to be caught as outs instead of double.

 

I see a lot to like.

 

Some might also be triples.

 

Let's say he's a 4.00 ERA pitcher at TF. That's an improvement, I guess.

 

Not much though.

[jay]

Some might also be triples.

 

Let's say he's a 4.00 ERA pitcher at TF. That's an improvement, I guess.

 

Not much though.

 

I think you could throw out his 2011 as he was injured (Phil Hughes - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia) and get that number down a little further. I'm splitting hairs a bit, but I'd maybe call it 3.80.

 

I'd be happy to see that in the Twins rotation. That's a solid #3 on a playoff team and the Twins' ace with our current squad.