Predicting Twins Prospects in the top 100

[Larsbars08]

As the minor league seasons are coming to a close, I've been thinking about the strength of our farm system, particularly the top-end talent. Now that Hicks, Arcia, and Gibson are probably no longer eligible to be on the K-Law, BA, Sickels, Mayo, and Baseball Prospectus' top 100 prospect lists, I think the no doubter top 100 guys have to be:

 

1. Buxton

2. Sano

3. Meyer

4. Stewart

5. Rosario

 

I think Berrios is on the bubble, but doesn't make it due to his late season swoon.

 

Is there anyone else in the system I've missed who will crack any of the top 100 lists?

[pierre75275]

How about Adam Walker? Or Josmil Pinto in AAA. My guess is they dont quite make the cut. Or how about Stephen Gonsalves? His numbers were as good as stewarts

[cmb0252]

As the minor league seasons are coming to a close, I've been thinking about the strength of our farm system, particularly the top-end talent. Now that Hicks, Arcia, and Gibson are probably no longer eligible to be on the K-Law, BA, Sickels, Mayo, and Baseball Prospectus' top 100 prospect lists, I think the no doubter top 100 guys have to be:

 

1. Buxton

2. Sano

3. Meyer

4. Stewart

5. Rosario

 

I think Berrios is on the bubble, but doesn't make it due to his late season swoon.

 

Is there anyone else in the system I've missed who will crack any of the top 100 lists?

 

Gibson (have to double check), Arcia, and Hicks are no longer eligible. I think that's the list but several lists will have Stewart higher than Meyers. Buxton #1, Sano in the top 7, Meyers/Stewart in the 30s, and Rosario in the 45-65 range.

 

Berrios has pitched OK this year but he isn't a top 100 guy right now. If Kepler wasn't injured I could have seen him make it on ceiling alone. Walker killed a league that he shouldn't have even been in as a college guy. As for Gonsalves, while his numbers were as good as Stewarts in the low minors tools are more important than just stats. I could see Gonsalves being a top 100 in 2015 though.

[nicksaviking]

Most evaluators love them some SS. The Twins likely did him a disservice by not playing him there more but Jorge Polanco may be a bubble guy.

[Pitz]

Any chance Lewis Thorpe or Felix Jorge will get some consideration despite only pitching in rookie leagues and not having the top draft pick status?

[diehardtwinsfan]

I could see Thorpe, Jorge, Berrios, Pinto, and Kepler all as bubble guys here.

 

I think Pinto is the most likely to make it.

[Larsbars08]

Any chance Lewis Thorpe or Felix Jorge will get some consideration despite only pitching in rookie leagues and not having the top draft pick status?

 

I thought about those guys, but unless they're already highly regarded, they're unlikely to have a real shot till they've pitched in full season ball.

[lightfoot789]

Walker killed a league that he shouldn't have even been in as a college guy.

 

Walker was one of the youngest college players in the 2012 draft. Why is everyone so caught up in his placement in the MWL. He is only 21 and could be 23 or 24 in his MLB debut. Is that truly too old to have a long productive MLB career. Most of the guys on his team are older than him. This years 2nd (Eades) and 3rd (Turner) round picks are both only 2 months younger than Walker. If he hadn't had such a poor Cape Cod (2011) experience, he would have been a first round pick and everyone would be cheering a different tone.

 

My point is, you shouldn't compare Walker with the Buxton's and Sano's of the world, because they are the young freaks that every franchise wished they had. Walker should arrive to the MLB around the average age of most prospects in baseball. Let's hope he can dominate at each of his upcoming levels and we can all stop dwelling on an unjust minor detail of his development (age). Let's enjoy his production for what it is and was this season (dominating). He should be the MVP of the league this year and I'm sure he won't be the oldest MVP in Midwest League history if fortunate enough to do so.

 

Who ever thought we would call a guy who hasn't been legalto drink in this country for an entire year yet - old?

[diehardtwinsfan]

What's the average age of the MWL players? That to me is probably the biggest factor for or against Walker's prospect status. He was a flawed player when drafted, so taking it slow isn't necessarily a bad option. It will be interesting to see how he adjusts to high A next year and if they are willing to push him a bit more if he puts up similar numbers.

[2wins87]

What's the average age of the MWL players?

Average age for batters is 21.3 (not sure if that was in April or now). So he's around average. I still don't think he'll be sniffing any top 100 lists, I don't think he'd be a top 3 prospect in many systems.

 

I think Gibson will be on some lists if he's still eligible. Other than that May will probably be a bubble guy sitting on the outside based on the attention payed to him in the past and some flashes of really good stuff this year. Polanco could also be just on the outside of 100, though I haven't heard too much about him from any of the national media outlets.

[jay]

I think that's the list but several lists will have Stewart higher than Meyers. Buxton #1, Sano in the top 7, Meyers/Stewart in the 30s, and Rosario in the 45-65 range.

 

Berrios has pitched OK this year but he isn't a top 100 guy right now. If Kepler wasn't injured I could have seen him make it on ceiling alone. Walker killed a league that he shouldn't have even been in as a college guy. As for Gonsalves, while his numbers were as good as Stewarts in the low minors tools are more important than just stats. I could see Gonsalves being a top 100 in 2015 though.

 

Have to agree with most of this. I think Rosario is going to be Arcia-like in his rankings... higher end of that range on most, but a few that give him respect for hitting well at every level. I could see Berrios sneaking onto the back end of a list or two, but I agree he's probably a bubble guy for the top 100.

 

It's nice to see that we also seem to have a good bit of depth in that 100-250 range that are still legit prospects and could very well make an MLB impact in due time.

[Steve Penz]

I would say that Walker and May have a good shot. As far as the others I don't know. Its an interesting opinion to express because I know nothing. I look at stats pages and see a video or two. Therefore to judge ceiling on guys like Thorpe, Jorge and Kepler is not possible. Emotionally speaking, I was hoping that Kepler was going to kill it this year and have national baseball nerds like Olney and Law talking about him. That did not happen but I still read that the tools, ability and body type are there. To me he is very fun story.

[Mr. Brooks]

Average age for batters is 21.3 (not sure if that was in April or now). So he's around average. I still don't think he'll be sniffing any top 100 lists, I don't think he'd be a top 3 prospect in many systems.

 

I think Gibson will be on some lists if he's still eligible. Other than that May will probably be a bubble guy sitting on the outside based on the attention payed to him in the past and some flashes of really good stuff this year. Polanco could also be just on the outside of 100, though I haven't heard too much about him from any of the national media outlets.

 

Gibson is not eligible. He is 1 inning over the cutoff.

[AROG]

I think Gonsalves is an easy Top 100 guy. He has shown a lot more velocity then they originally thought he would have. I think that Felix Jorge has a shot at it and I think that Lewis Thorpe has a shot at it but both as fringe.

[Steve Lein]

Walker is young for a college guy, but he also played 3 full college seasons. That means he should be far more advanced than the guys he faced last year in the Rookie leagues and this year in the Midwest League.

 

I've posted this several times about Walker, from a Keith Law chat a month or more ago:

 

Jesse (Minny)

 

 

 

Any opions on Adam Bret Walker in Cedar Rapids? He's over 20 HRs with a good AVG. Solid regular 1st baseman?

Klaw (1:59 PM)

 

 

 

He's also 21 and a college product in low-A, with a poor walk rate and a K rate too high for a player of his age/experience. He's not a zero, but again, the stat line here is pretty misleading - and he should be in high-A.

 

 

Klaw (1:59 PM)

 

 

 

Seriously, don't draft a good college player in the first few rounds and send him to low-A in his first full year. You're wasting everyone's time.

 

 

 

I'm not trying to disrespect the guy, I like him a lot and spent a good amount of time paying attention to him at Spring Training and throughout this year. Very athletic, very powerful, but he also has a ton to work on.

 

There's a great article on Baseball America about him right now and I highly recommend many of you read it if you have the subscription:

 

Adam Brett Walker's Potential Divides Scouts - BaseballAmerica.com

 

But definitely Buxton, Sano, Meyer, Stewart, Rosario, and Berrios, with May and Kepler on the bubble for next years Top 100 lists.

[Steve Penz]

Steve Lein....great post. Thanks.

[Oxtung]

May will not be on anyone's top 100 lists. He didn't make it on the 2013 lists and hasn't improved his stats, and presumably his stuff or reputation, by returning to AA for a second season.

 

I think Berrios depends on how closely the evaluators look at his season. I think it's pretty clear he hit a wall or has been injured in his first full season. After throwing just 33 innings last season, plus whatever he threw in PR, he has now thrown 105 innings this year.

 

First 61 IP- 3.25 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 10.5 K/9, 4.4 K:BB

Last 44 IP- 4.87 ERA, 4.9 BB/9, 5.9 K/9, 1.2 K:BB

 

If they just look at his overall line I don't see how he makes it. If they look close they might decide the first half is the real Berrios and he has been injured/spent and still rank him based off of his "stuff".

 

Rookie ball players don't make these lists unless they are highly regarded internationals like Sano or drafted high like Stewart. So it will be a couple years before anyone not named Stewart to be ranked.

 

I think Berrios is the most likely of the fringe prospects followed by Jorge Polanco. He has had an a very good first year at full season ball following an awesome year at Elizabethton. Kepler probably still fits with this group. While he hasn't had the season we hoped his peripherals are still very good. He is striking out only 16% of the time while walking 9.6%. His babip of .261 is holding him down quite a bit. The only concern I have is his splits against left handed pitchers. Ouch.

[DaveW]

Buxton will be #1, Sano will be #2

[gunnarthor]

Buxton will be #1, Sano will be #2

 

Could be.

Meyer in the low 30s (could be higher with a strong AFL performance)

Stewart in the 50s

Rosario in the 50-60 range

 

I don't think anyone else makes it.

 

I wonder if Ryan has another off season trade to make around Perkins to bring in more milb talent.

[cmb0252]

Could be.

Meyer in the low 30s (could be higher with a strong AFL performance)

Stewart in the 50s

Rosario in the 50-60 range

 

I don't think anyone else makes it.

 

I wonder if Ryan has another off season trade to make around Perkins to bring in more milb talent.

 

I just can't see them trading Perkins. There best chance to get a big haul was this trade deadline but most reports indicated the Twins weren't really listening to offers on him. RPers normally get more during the season. Either way, we got a handful of studs who will be in the bigs, outside of Stewart, next year at some point.

[Mr. Brooks]

There is zero chance that May makes any top 100 list. In fact I think he'll drop significantly on our organizational lists. I don't think he'll even crack our top 10, and could be closer to 15 than 10.

When a prospect his age, repeating a level, fails to make a step forward, that is the equivalent of taking a huge step back, at least in the eyes of those who compile these lists.

[gunnarthor]

There is zero chance that May makes any top 100 list. In fact I think he'll drop significantly on our organizational lists. I don't think he'll even crack our top 10, and could be closer to 15 than 10.

When a prospect his age, repeating a level, fails to make a step forward, that is the equivalent of taking a huge step back, at least in the eyes of those who compile these lists.

 

I agree that he won't be on any top 100 lists but the rest is far too hard on him. He'll comfortably be in our top 10 lists. He's only 23 this year. His krate has improved a bit and his walks have improved a bit more so now his k/bb rate is better this year. His FIP (if you value that at all in the minors) has improved a full run. He's given up fewer homers. And he's remained healthy while throwing a crap load of innings. I figure he's probably our 8th best prospect (Mayo has him 7th).

[CGNikolic]

A lineup within the next couple of years featuring: Hicks (LF), Buxton (CF), Arcia (RF), Sano (3B), Santana/Dozier/Polanco/Goodrum (SS), Rosario (2B), and a combination of Vargas, Mauer, FA and Pinto at first base, catcher, and DH (with Beresford and Escobar as UIF, Herrmann as C/OF, and any fringe prospect or cheap FA as 4th OF) sounds pretty dangerous to me - obviously all determined by the health and success of these players of course. The question will be the pitching staff (not worried about the bullpen whatsoever), and what players the Twins add (or don't add?) to improve it by the time all of these position players are ready. Obviously Meyer and Gibson are locks, along with possibly Berrios, but I am not so sure about anyone else being ready by 2016. As always, starting pitching will likely be a question mark unless the Twins front office does something to fix it. That will determine our success of the timeframe that many have talked about will be the turn of the franchise.

[Mr. Brooks]

I agree that he won't be on any top 100 lists but the rest is far too hard on him. He'll comfortably be in our top 10 lists. He's only 23 this year. His krate has improved a bit and his walks have improved a bit more so now his k/bb rate is better this year. His FIP (if you value that at all in the minors) has improved a full run. He's given up fewer homers. And he's remained healthy while throwing a crap load of innings. I figure he's probably our 8th best prospect (Mayo has him 7th).

 

We shall see.

I think these guys penalize a lot more than you think they do when a guy repeats a level and doesn't destroy it.

[howieramone1406390264]

A lineup within the next couple of years featuring: Hicks (LF), Buxton (CF), Arcia (RF), Sano (3B), Santana/Dozier/Polanco/Goodrum (SS), Rosario (2B), and a combination of Vargas, Mauer, FA and Pinto at first base, catcher, and DH (with Beresford and Escobar as UIF, Herrmann as C/OF, and any fringe prospect or cheap FA as 4th OF) sounds pretty dangerous to me - obviously all determined by the health and success of these players of course. The question will be the pitching staff (not worried about the bullpen whatsoever), and what players the Twins add (or don't add?) to improve it by the time all of these position players are ready. Obviously Meyer and Gibson are locks, along with possibly Berrios, but I am not so sure about anyone else being ready by 2016. As always, starting pitching will likely be a question mark unless the Twins front office does something to fix it. That will determine our success of the timeframe that many have talked about will be the turn of the franchise.

 

For what it's worth, Jim Callis said in his Wednesday draft chat, a month before the draft, Stewart would make it to the bigs by 2015. I hope to see Eades up sometime in 2016 and if we take a college starting pitcher in the very deep 2014 draft, I'm guessing the plan would be to have that player available by 2016.

 

Starting pitching is very real concern, and actually the only one I have. If Tanaka passes the close scrutiny of our scouts, I hope we bet the farm. Good post!

[Monkeypaws]

I think the rankers will look at Berrios' second half, then his size, and say "told ya so."

[Thegrin]

Danny Santana should be on the Top 100 lists.

 

In 2012 at FtM he hit .286 .329 .410 .739 with 21 doubles & 17 stolen bases in 28 tries.

In 2013 at NB he has hit .296 .331 .387 .718 with 22 doubles & 28 stolen bases in 41 tries.

[Larsbars08]

If Santana could raise his OBP about 20 points, he'd definitely be a fringe top 100 prospect. He really needs to take a few more walks. Baseball America rated him as the best defensive SS in the Eastern League this year, but he's also got 31 errors.

[jokin]

I agree that he won't be on any top 100 lists but the rest is far too hard on him. He'll comfortably be in our top 10 lists. He's only 23 this year. His krate has improved a bit and his walks have improved a bit more so now his k/bb rate is better this year. His FIP (if you value that at all in the minors) has improved a full run. He's given up fewer homers. And he's remained healthy while throwing a crap load of innings. I figure he's probably our 8th best prospect (Mayo has him 7th).

 

I agree with your assessment. There was also an anomalous BABIP factor that accounts for some of his less-than-dominating numbers. And there are more underlying positives to take away from 2013, even if he didn't meet MrBrooks' standard for second-year dominaton at the same level ( ie, May ranked 3rd overall in the EL in K/9, and as you noted, increasing his K rate, even as he cut his BB rate dramatically). Having said that, I would probably drop him along the cusp of the top 10 now, with Polanco, Santana, and possibly Gonsalves nudging slightly ahead of him, leaving May tied or slightly ahead of Gonsalves for #9 or #10 ( I would drop Kepler out of the top 10, too, as he's destined for another year in CR to get firmer answers on his health and production...and Felix Jorge should get a big bump from up from #20, a big winter ball season for him in the DR might change the rankings quite a bit, too!).

 

Coming back to May, he definitely appears to be a good listener and learner and appears to publicly demonstrate a cerebral approach on what it's going to take for him to reach the majors, this apparent coachability was demonstrated in his successful adaptation to the Twins SP philosophy, this, plus his healthy arm, power stuff, and horse-like physique still gives him a decent shot as a very solid, "effectively wild", back-end or #3 level, inning-eating starter.

[Oxtung]

There is zero chance that May makes any top 100 list. In fact I think he'll drop significantly on our organizational lists. I don't think he'll even crack our top 10, and could be closer to 15 than 10.

When a prospect his age, repeating a level, fails to make a step forward, that is the equivalent of taking a huge step back, at least in the eyes of those who compile these lists.

 

I agree. Many of the Twins not elite prospects had significant season ending slides. From Mayo's list Berrios (will still be ranked higher than May though), Kepler, Eades, Harrison, Melotakis, Bard, Chargois and Goodrum all struggled significantly at some point this season. My guess is Kepler, Polanco, Santana, Sulbaran and Gonsalves pass him up. Harrison and Felix Jorge also have an outside shot IMO.

 

I think the rankers will look at Berrios' second half, then his size, and say "told ya so."

Entirely possible. I look at that split and think, "There is something wrong here."