The Twins don't use advanced metrics

[AlwaysinModeration]

I've been working on my own advanced metric to measure specific blown save situations called Times In Trouble In Ninth With Run Issued - Not Game Ending Reliever. (TITINWRINGER.) Ron Davis had a very high TITINWRINGER value.

 

I'm also working on one to calculate Wins Incremental to Mike Pelfrey's or WIMP.

 

 

Just speculation here, but I think you pulled these out of your Advanced Sabermetric Stash.

[drjim]

I completely agree that an experience, well developed scouting staff is the meat and potatos of a good baseball team. But that doesn't mean you can't be looking for some ways to spice it up. The Twins appear to scoff at anything that isn't salt.

 

I don't think the Twins necessarily scoff at everything, but I completely agree with the sentiment. The Twins absolutely need to expand in this area and embrace some of the findings.

[drjim]

Those who dont think Bill James and Theo were not using advanced metrics to build the teams that win those championships really are blind are fooling themselves.

 

Baseball clubs are loaded with as much intellectual talent as some wall street firms and think tanks. Some of the freelance guys you say are pulling stats off pitch fx in their mommas basement are really trading 9 figure derivatives on Wall Street and doing this on the side. Hell, the most famous numbers guy in the country now is Nate Silver and he freaking wrote at Baseball Prospectus BEFORE going to work for the NY Times.

 

Some clubs are throwing all this intellectual weight to find a few runs here and save a few runs there. The margins (like derivatives) are miniscule but matter in a 162 game season.

 

The reason advanced metrics "work" is because baseball is largely a fixed repeatable process with a large enough sample to help filter the noise and drill down to what really matters. Unlike any other sport. 4 balls is a walk, 3 strikes is an out, you get 3 outs an inning and 27 outs in a standard game....162 times a year. No clock, no turnovers....you get 3 little measly outs in your half an inning to make something happen and 27 outs in a game.\

 

All the pushback is largely based on the romantic notion of baseball (which btw is another cool thing about the sport). However, its gets so overblown that it gets to be largely BS and becomes a life raft for those unwilling to budge on that notion to desperately cling too. You hear it all the time. Baseball is test of will, and character, an fortitude and blather blather blather....like ballplayers are some kind of knight in shining armor. We win in Minnesota because gosh darn it we try harder and battle our tail off and play small ball....blech

 

I think this is the right conclusion. The core of the game is not going to change from team to team, but failure to embrace new information will leave value on table at the margins, which can result in a couple of runs/wins which add up over a season.

[drjim]

And they got Correa who looks to be damn good and they were able to use that money to also get McCullers

I don't think they are complaining too much in Houston about passing on Buxton.

Houston had a pretty good '12 draft.

 

I wasn't necessarily criticizing Houston's draft They definitely added talent and were strategic how they did so, and it will surely pay dividends down the road. But in that process they left a beast on the table that was right in front of their face, and I'm quite pleased that they did. The dopey Twins took advantage.

[E. Andrew]

Advanced metrics is not voodoo. Its not witchcraft. IMO it's not even at odds with the "eye test". In many ways it's a template for putting what shows up in the "eye test" into data that can be used to compare multiple players.

 

That's the key. The more baseball you watch, the more your anecdotal memories and human emotions cloud your perceptions of a player's overall value. Stats quantify the data mined from the eye test, and keep you 'level-headed'. It's a bit ridiculous for anyone to believe they can properly quantify all of the situations they've witnessed over 162 games in a season.

 

Brad Pitt's 'Moneyball' wasn't really my thing, but I loved when he said 'I don't watch the games.'

[jay]

The Twins appear to scoff at anything that isn't salt.

 

Oh yeaaah, dontcha know, that pepper there is spicy!

 

I don't know exactly where the Twins fall on the stat-using spectrum, but it would seem foolish not to invest heavily in any sort evaluation method. The cost of hiring a whole team of professional statisticians would be maybe, what? A million? Given the immense pay disparities between the fields of stats and professional baseball, it sure doesn't take much to make that back in MLB payroll or on-field contributions...

[JB_Iowa]

Is it the refusal of Goin to be interviewed due to "competitive advantage", which sounds almost as silly as the Top Gun "I could tell you, but then I'd have to kill you" thing?

 

 

I just want to say that, while he may have refused to be interviewed at an earlier time, I do appreciate the interviews that Mr. Goins has been willing to give to TD writers (two by Parker if I remember correctly).

 

And, I believe that some of what was said in those articles was fairly enlightening on the Twins stance on advanced metrics.

 

I would summarize it as: they've made some progress in the last few years but still have a LONG way to go.

[Mike Sixel]

Terry Ryan on why they signed Correia "he's better than his numbers, scouts I trust told me that".....that's the one piece of evidence I can site with any certainty on this topic.

 

The distaste many have for using math and sciene to understand probabilities and to improve performance is amazing. Especially for a group of people that spend so much time on internet connected computers, probably drive a care with advanced computing (who needs a computer ot help an engine, it's just internal combustion, right?), probably fly in planes.....MATH AND SCIENCE MAKE THE WORLD A BETTER PLACE.

 

I don't get the aversion to making yourself/your team, smarter.

[Thegrin]

Terry Ryan on why they signed Correia "he's better than his numbers, scouts I trust told me that".....that's the one piece of evidence I can site with any certainty on this topic.

 

"scouts I trust " could be a euphemism for Goins and the Twins stats guys. Wouldn't that be a prudent way for Ryan to speak of them ?

[Marta Shearing]

I see this again and again on the forums.

Would someone please post where they read that the entire Twins organization ignores this information?

 

I'd be satisfied with just a Terry Ryan Ron Gardenhire expose.

 

Thanks.

 

Meh. Not using sabermetrics is the least of their worries.

[Mike Sixel]

"scouts I trust " could be a euphemism for Goins and the Twins stats guys. Wouldn't that be a prudent way for Ryan to speak of them ?

 

That's now what he said at all, he said he talked to Goins, but scouts I trust said he's better than his numbers. There are not stats guys, there is 1, and an intern.

[Alex]

"scouts I trust " could be a euphemism for Goins and the Twins stats guys. Wouldn't that be a prudent way for Ryan to speak of them ?

 

Not really, considering that sounds like he's referring to the eye test and not, you know, numbers.

 

EDIT: He's pretty much been his numbers this season again.

 

Moreover, what is baffling to me is that there is some kind of narrative that the Twins are using advanced metrics but are benefiting (to the tune of 3 consecutive 90+ loss seasons) by keeping it secret.

 

Does their pattern of moves really suggest they do a good job analyzing/valuing numbers? Consider their use of spring training as a key evaluative tool in choosing players to make the roster (Hicks/Ramirez, among others), keeping players who seem to deserve a chance based on their numbers down in the minors (Slama, Colabello, Richardson etc..). Illogically keeping players up while sending others down (Hicks and Dozier both received longer looks than Parmelee, Colabello, and Arcia before getting sent back) From my observations, they are far more into scouting and what they see in a player than what that player has actually done.

[Craig Arko]

Any angst I could possibly feel about this issue is trivial next to the knowledge that Ben Affleck is the new Batman.

[Monkeypaws]

I do remember reading something about how Perkins was into advanced metrics, and even applied some of that knowledge on the mound.

[Mike Sixel]

I do remember reading something about how Perkins was into advanced metrics, and even applied some of that knowledge on the mound.

 

Great interview on Fangraphs.....

[E. Andrew]

Any angst I could possibly feel about this issue is trivial next to the knowledge that Ben Affleck is the new Batman.

 

I'll start a thread in the Sports Bar, we can fix it.

[Alex]

I do remember reading something about how Perkins was into advanced metrics, and even applied some of that knowledge on the mound.

 

Yeah, and it's pretty clear it's on his own. Diamond talked about how Perk was the one talking to him about that. It wasn't his pitching coach, it was another player that was taking the initiative. More evidence that it's not an organizational philosophy.

[Oxtung]

Oh yeaaah, dontcha know, that pepper there is spicy!

 

I don't know exactly where the Twins fall on the stat-using spectrum, but it would seem foolish not to invest heavily in any sort evaluation method. The cost of hiring a whole team of professional statisticians would be maybe, what? A million? Given the immense pay disparities between the fields of stats and professional baseball, it sure doesn't take much to make that back in MLB payroll or on-field contributions...

 

If you want top of the line statisticians it would be considerably more than "a million" for "a team" of them. In the world of finance these guys can make big bucks. As professors they typically make a little less but have other benefits. Your point is still valid though, the Astros pay their Decision Sciences division considerably less than their players and that is a very small amount in the ocean that is MLB.

[AROG]

I feel like I will leave two cents.

 

The Twins do use advanced metrics. That is obvious. Do they use them enough? Only time will tell. Did Billy Beane's advance metrics blow it when they let Willingham go? I bet they would have like his stat line last year. Did they predict he would get hurt and suffer this year? I don't know. Is it fair to say that Ryan isn't using them because his team has lost 90 games the last 3 years. Absolutely not. First of all, he took over at the end of the first season and has increased the talent in the minors a ton. All the praise people give Houston is due to them. They have lost a lot more then the Twins have.

 

The true issue at hand is if they Twins are using enough of the advanced metrics and since none of us are baseball executives, we need to go by the results. Any advanced statistical analysis would tell you that our sample size is too small. We need more time and data to determine if they way they are using enough advanced metrics is right.

 

Ryan obviously puts a lot of faith in Goin, the article is clear on that. Whether or not Ryan understands the metrics is a different story, but from what I have gathered and based on my opinions of the man, he likes to play dumb in certain arenas to get the old school "one up" or "poker hand" approach. Gardenhire is a different story all together and that I will not touch, I just don't like him at all.

 

I believe like most things, there is a happy medium that isn't discussed. The Astros also spend a ton of money on their scouts and put a lot of credence to them.

 

Stats are very helpful and will provide a ton of insight. At the end of the day, stats can only tell you with clarity what has happened and what is likely to happen if the stats are repeated. They can not tell you if the player will continue to increase their ability or if they will maintain that ability to put up the same stats. That is where scouts come in.

 

So, in conclusion, I am somewhere in the middle. Stats are very helpful but are based on interpretation. I believe the Twins should have more "stats guys". But, I wouldn't want someone making decisions on player development, drafting, signings, or lineups based solely on stats. There has to be a mixture of evaluation and stats.

[Mike Sixel]

Agreed, it is not "either or"....it is both.

[drjim]

That's the key. The more baseball you watch, the more your anecdotal memories and human emotions cloud your perceptions of a player's overall value. Stats quantify the data mined from the eye test, and keep you 'level-headed'. It's a bit ridiculous for anyone to believe they can properly quantify all of the situations they've witnessed over 162 games in a season.

 

Brad Pitt's 'Moneyball' wasn't really my thing, but I loved when he said 'I don't watch the games.'

 

This may be true if you are a casual fan but even a mildly competent scout or judge of talent wouldn't fall for this. Even teams that eschew advanced metrics would check a player against stats.

[jay]

Twins are totally on top of cybermetrics. Piece of cake.

 

I thought it was a joke in the other thread, but now I'm not so sure.

 

Sabermetrics?

[drjim]

I feel like I will leave two cents.

 

The Twins do use advanced metrics. That is obvious. Do they use them enough? Only time will tell. Did Billy Beane's advance metrics blow it when they let Willingham go? I bet they would have like his stat line last year. Did they predict he would get hurt and suffer this year? I don't know. Is it fair to say that Ryan isn't using them because his team has lost 90 games the last 3 years. Absolutely not. First of all, he took over at the end of the first season and has increased the talent in the minors a ton. All the praise people give Houston is due to them. They have lost a lot more then the Twins have.

 

The true issue at hand is if they Twins are using enough of the advanced metrics and since none of us are baseball executives, we need to go by the results. Any advanced statistical analysis would tell you that our sample size is too small. We need more time and data to determine if they way they are using enough advanced metrics is right.

 

Ryan obviously puts a lot of faith in Goin, the article is clear on that. Whether or not Ryan understands the metrics is a different story, but from what I have gathered and based on my opinions of the man, he likes to play dumb in certain arenas to get the old school "one up" or "poker hand" approach. Gardenhire is a different story all together and that I will not touch, I just don't like him at all.

 

I believe like most things, there is a happy medium that isn't discussed. The Astros also spend a ton of money on their scouts and put a lot of credence to them.

 

Stats are very helpful and will provide a ton of insight. At the end of the day, stats can only tell you with clarity what has happened and what is likely to happen if the stats are repeated. They can not tell you if the player will continue to increase their ability or if they will maintain that ability to put up the same stats. That is where scouts come in.

 

So, in conclusion, I am somewhere in the middle. Stats are very helpful but are based on interpretation. I believe the Twins should have more "stats guys". But, I wouldn't want someone making decisions on player development, drafting, signings, or lineups based solely on stats. There has to be a mixture of evaluation and stats.

 

Great post. I especially like the bolded section.

 

I generally fall in the category that the Twins use advanced metrics more than we probably think, but like all things in the organization there is room for improvement and for additional resources to be committed.

 

Does anyone know anything about Brad Steil? In an interview with Mackey Ryan hinted that Steil is from a more modern analytical approach. If there is one place the organization has seen a significant jump this year it is the minor leagues. Maybe there is something to that.

[Brock Beauchamp]

And you know there is no one else working with him?

 

Twins Daily interviewed him. He is the only guy.

 

Assessing numbers once the database is in place is not an overwhelming job. Assessing numbers punched through a computer does not take a lot of time. Hell, Puck can find out stuff in a matter of seconds because he knows where to look. Give people credit for learning what to look at and how to look at it.

 

I'm going to guess that you don't work with computers a lot. There is more to analyzing hundreds of thousands (probably millions, actually) of data points than clicking "find a jewel in the rough" button and waiting for it to magically churn out a player name. There is a reason why the Rays have a team of people working on this stuff. It's not easy and it's not done in mere moments, particularly if your task is to create better and more accurate metrics that no one else is using.

[old nurse]

So... You knew exactly what's going on in the Twins organization because you read (did you?) the article? Twins are totally on top of cybermetrics. Piece of cake.

 

But when someone points out that the article actually paints a discouraging picture of how the Twins use, or rather don't use, advanced metrics, then the article is suddenly meaningless and the someone is totally uninformed?

 

Is that how it works?

 

Also, I'll be happy to PM you some suggestions for what you can do with your "piss and vinegar".

The first article mentioned was old. Changes have been made since then. The article I pointed out was clearly written after the one that stated the Twins do not use metrics. To many the second article would lead one to believe they are working on it. To some, they will believe what they want. After all, there is a flat earth society.

[LaBombo]

I thought it was a joke in the other thread, but now I'm not so sure.

 

Sabermetrics?

It is, and its name is Gardenhire. Someday he's probably going to be rich just from the royalties alone.

[LaBombo]

After all, there is a flat earth society.

That's the one founded by people who set believers in math and science on fire, right?

[nicksaviking]

No team that significantly uses advanced metrics would put a rotation like this together. Feel free to contradict me if there is evidence to the contrary, but in no way shape or form is Kevin Correia a Sabr Sweetheart.

 

Not a chance a team that embraces advanced metrics fields a staff that has next to no ability to strike anyone out. Allowing baserunners to this magnatude is absolutely not something Bill James would advocate. I don't know how this isn't proof enough that the Twins are quite poor when it comes to using complicated numbers.

 

Amendment: Perhaps there is a small chance the Twins do check out advanced statistics, however if they do, they don't know how to interpret them or put them to use.

[jay]

It is, and its name is Gardenhire. Someday he's probably going to be rich just from the royalties alone.

 

Front office or not, the dugout is certainly one place where the Twins could use a few philosophical shifts. Gardy gets respect in the league, but it's painful to watch him get outmanaged by some of the forward thinkers.

[Alex]

I just want to add that it's a strawman argument to say those of us advocating more statistical evaluation means we want less scouting.