Reverse Standings and the 2014 MLB Draft

[nicksaviking]

Yep... hoping one is still there in round 2.

 

That would be great, but to be able to sign him, the Twins would likely need to take a college player in round one. At this stage of the game, Gatewood or Kolek probably wouldn't enable another high profiled HS kid in round two.

 

Edit: Ha, this level of speculation in September really seems silly.

[ThePuck]

I noticed Gatewood too (in another write-up). HS Jr, 6'5" and 190#--I see 230# very soon. If Gatewood's (high) value to the Twins was as a SS, I am convinced he will grow out of that position. Sano was "signed" as a SS--and is about 240#. Sano will need some serious weight control just to stay at 3B. However, if Gatewood is a true ++ power-hitter, then that's different. Another position can be found for a real slugger.

 

That doesn't happen with every player. I was 5 foot 10 as a freshman and only added one more inch. I stayed within 5 pounds of the same weight until I stopped playing baseball in my mid-20s. Dude is already 6'5. If he gets to 215-220. he's still good to go there if he's already as fluid as is being said at 6 foot 5.

[kab21]

I don't really care if Gatewood outgrows SS. It would be great to draft an above average or better SS that could hold down the position for a long time but that's not how the draft and player development works. guys bust all the time. team needs change all. we are a year away from the draft and it will likely take 3 years minimum for a HS pick to make it to the majors. By that time this board could be begging for anyone to take over 3rd base for Sano for defensive reasons and the Twins could have found a solid SS out of nowhere.

 

The important thing in the draft is land legit above average (or better) players regardless of position. It was just 5 years ago that the Twins were churning out solid to very good starters (Baker, Slowey, Liriano, Garza, blackburn) pretty much every year out of their minor league system. At the same time they couldn't produce a hitter (not even guys that disappointed). things are completely opposite right now. 4-5 years from now team needs and farm system depth could be completely different.

 

I was a little concerned 2 weeks ago when there was a chance that the Twins could fall outside of the top ten with a hot streak but they seem to be locked into the 4-6 spot right now. Regardless of where they pick they should land a really good prospect to add to a pile of really good prospects.

 

I also don't care if the Twins lose their 2nd rd pick because they signed a legitimately good FA. As a matter of fact I would be thrilled since 2nd rd and later picks are a complete crapshoot and typically are busts.

[Brandon]

I am pretty confident the Twins won't sign one of the 12-16 FA's that get a qualifying offer this offseason. They will likely have their second round pick. At this point isn't that pick the main thing we are playing (losing) for this season? The goal based on what I am reading above is to be able to have an opportunity to get one of those 94MPH hurlers with the 2nd pick if one is even available at that point or someone who is basically late first round talent that is pushed back due to the deep draft. The first pick appears to be a solid one no matter if we pick 4, 5 or 6.

 

I wanted to add we are now only .5 game out of 4th pick (currently Cubs) in the reverse standings and 1.5 games ahead of the 6th pick (Seattle)

[Oldgoat_MN]

One thing to note is not only is there possibly 8 elite talents at the top of the draft but the draft looks to be a deep one too. Especially with HS pitching. Last years perfect games all-american game, showcase for the best HS prospects, only one pitcher hit 94 (our own Kohl Stewart). This year 10 pitchers threw harder than 95. 10! Just something to keep in mind.

 

Wow. In this context 10 is a really big number.

 

I have to believe we would take a pitcher. I am all for BPA, but sometimes what is best for your team is not what would be best for another team. I understand that when it is clear you have to do it, but it's not always clear. That the Astros passed on Buxton is still a mystery to me.

 

If Gatewood cannot stay at SS that has a huge impact on his value.

[MrHockey]

The Twins are now tied with the Cubs for 4th in the reverse standings. Stellar work Gardy and company! It doesn't look like we can catch the Whities but with 8 games left it is possible that the Twins could take 4th.

[cmb0252]

The Twins are now tied with the Cubs for 4th in the reverse standings. Stellar work Gardy and company! It doesn't look like we can catch the Whities but with 8 games left it is possible that the Twins could take 4th.

 

At this point, it is the only thing for fans to get excited about.

[twinsfan34]

'tis true. But it's all we got. Half a game behind the Cubs for #4. 3 games ahead of dropping to #6 with 7 games to go. I think we can sit no worse that #5.

 

Well, Arcia hit well. Got caught off 1B on that nice hit off that big curve...

[Monkeypaws]

The bottom teams are all tanking, hard. Over the last 10 games:

 

Houston 1-9

Miami 3-7

Sox 3-7

Cubs 3-7

Twins 2-8

Seattle 3-7

 

Only the Brewers have pulled themselves up by going 6-4.

[ashbury]

The bottom teams are all tanking, hard.

 

Welcome to the NBA, I guess. Maybe this is no worse than in past seasons. But with scouting seemingly better than ever (none of the top 10 picks in the 2012 MLB draft seems to be struggling seriously in 2013, except #10 apparently is injured), maybe this is the way it's going to be from here on. I hate it, but the NBA's pingpong ball system hasn't cured anything and I don't have a better competitive-balance solution to offer.

[James]

The Twins are now tied with the Cubs for 4th in the reverse standings. Stellar work Gardy and company! It doesn't look like we can catch the Whities but with 8 games left it is possible that the Twins could take 4th.

You're right that the Twins are only a half game behind, but in the event of a tie, the Cubs would get the better pick because they had the worse record last year. I'm really hoping the Cubs step it up and win some games.

 

I think you're absolutely right though, I think it'll be hard for the Twins to get anything worse than the #5 pick. Seattle does have 3 games against KC and then 3 games against Oakland. Hopefully Oakland rests some of their starters now that they've already clinched.

[nicksaviking]

The bottom teams are all tanking, hard. Over the last 10 games:

 

Welcome to the NBA, I guess. Maybe this is no worse than in past seasons. But with scouting seemingly better than ever (none of the top 10 picks in the 2012 MLB draft seems to be struggling seriously in 2013, except #10 apparently is injured), maybe this is the way it's going to be from here on. I hate it, but the NBA's pingpong ball system hasn't cured anything and I don't have a better competitive-balance solution to offer.

 

All the losses makes it look like they are tanking, but I really can't see that being the case. The White Sox, Cubs, Twins and Mariners all have managers who are in jeopardy of losing their jobs. While the GM may secretly want to lose for better draft picks, the manager surely doesn't, and while the GM has say on who is on the roster, the manager still gets to decide who plays. About the only play the GM has at this time of year to undermine the team, is screwing with who gets a September call up.

 

I think the losing has more to do with some really, really awful teams ending the season playing some really good teams that are still fighting for playoff spots. Additionally, many of the awful teams are playing young players to gain experience and evaluate their usefulness next year regardless of whether they are ready for the MLB or not.

[Kwak]

You're right that the Twins are only a half game behind, but in the event of a tie, the Cubs would get the better pick because they had the worse record last year. I'm really hoping the Cubs step it up and win some games.

 

I think you're absolutely right though, I think it'll be hard for the Twins to get anything worse than the #5 pick. Seattle does have 3 games against KC and then 3 games against Oakland. Hopefully Oakland rests some of their starters now that they've already clinched.

 

Hoping for the CUBS to win?--they finish the season with Pittsburgh and St. Louis.

[James]

Hoping for the CUBS to win?--they finish the season with Pittsburgh and St. Louis.

I'm aware they're playing good teams. But St. Louis already clinched a playoff spot, so if they lost a game or two to the Cubs, it wouldn't hurt them (besides possibly changing who they match up with in the playoffs).

 

But, I know. Hoping the Cubs win game is a strange feeling and I hope that I never do this again. And in reality, I don't think there's really any way that the Twins end up with the #4 pick.

[Bob Sacamento]

I'm aware they're playing good teams. But St. Louis already clinched a playoff spot, so if they lost a game or two to the Cubs, it wouldn't hurt them (besides possibly changing who they match up with in the playoffs).

 

But, I know. Hoping the Cubs win game is a strange feeling and I hope that I never do this again. And in reality, I don't think there's really any way that the Twins end up with the #4 pick.

My Cubbies are tanking the last bit of the season and there is little chance on catching them especially on who they finish the year out with and who they still have playing for them. The Cards aren't going to let up too much especially against Chicago; Cubs are 7-9 against STL so far this year and 6-10 against the Pirates.

[howieramone1406390264]

I'm aware they're playing good teams. But St. Louis already clinched a playoff spot, so if they lost a game or two to the Cubs, it wouldn't hurt them (besides possibly changing who they match up with in the playoffs).

 

But, I know. Hoping the Cubs win game is a strange feeling and I hope that I never do this again. And in reality, I don't think there's really any way that the Twins end up with the #4 pick.

James, I agree with you. King Theo was paid 18.5M to turn the loveable losers around, and he's been there longer than Ryan. Winning out so the Twins can get the 4th pick is as a good a reason as they have had in some time.

[ThePuck]

James, I agree with you. King Theo was paid 18.5M to turn the loveable losers around, and he's been there longer than Ryan. Winning out so the Twins can get the 4th pick is as a good a reason as they have had in some time.

 

First, Epstein and Ryan don't hold the same positions in their organizations.

 

Second, yes, Epstein has been with the Cubs longer than Ryan has been back as GM....but it's important everyone knows that longer, in this case, is by less than a month...same offseason. Hardly worth mentioning that Epstein has been their 'longer'...unless your agenda is to say, hey, he's had a whole three weeks longer to turn around the club.

 

Third, Ryan didn't even leave the organization....he's been part of it for a very long time...part of the culture, a person who helped define the Twins way and their philosophies on the type of players they target and the type of ball they play

 

Fourth, Epstein hadn't been with the Cubs for a boatload of years, contributing to the downfall of the farm system, prior to returning...and, again, he's not the GM.

 

Besides those things, it's a completely even comparison...

[gunnarthor]

First, Epstein and Ryan don't hold the same positions in their organizations.

 

Second, yes, Epstein has been with the Cubs longer than Ryan has been back as GM....but it's important everyone knows that longer, in this case, is by less than a month...same offseason. Hardly worth mentioning that Epstein has been their 'longer'...unless your agenda is to say, hey, he's had a whole three weeks longer to turn around the club.

 

Third, Ryan didn't even leave the organization....he's been part of it for a very long time...part of the culture, a person who helped define the Twins way and their philosophies on the type of players they target and the type of ball they play

 

Fourth, Epstein hadn't been with the Cubs for a boatload of years, contributing to the downfall of the farm system,prior to returning.

 

Besides those things, it's a completely even comparison...

 

Well, we should probably add in financial resources too. Unless we're ignoring that, too.

[ThePuck]

Well, we should probably add in financial resources too. Unless we're ignoring that, too.

 

I don't know what the other stuff we're ignoring is, I added stuff that we needed to not ignore, not the other way around, but if we wanna throw payroll in, Cubs payroll this year is 106...ours could be that big if we chose for it to be that big. Cubs payroll was 109M in 2012 and ours was 100M...not too far off there. Or is the point, hey they spend 24M more than us but are just as bad? Is that the point?

 

Again, Epstein isn't the GM of the Cubs, bringing him up in comparison to Ryan makes no sense, because they aren't doing the same job.

[nicksaviking]

Well, we should probably add in financial resources too. Unless we're ignoring that, too.

 

We shouldn't, but we then also shouldn't ignore the Pohlads' vocal affirmation that the Twins do not have any financial limitations.

 

In that scenario, the only limitations are the GM's ability or willingness to use those resources.

[howieramone1406390264]

We shouldn't, but we then also shouldn't ignore the Pohlads' vocal affirmation that the Twins do not have any financial limitations.

 

In that scenario, the only limitations are the GM's ability or willingness to use those resources.

The limitation is the GM's ability to find and sign value. King Theo recently said something interesting about how people thought you merely had to "X" a box to obtain the FA's you wanted. Only 30 GM's in all of baseball, there's a never ending supply of fans who know a better way.

[InfraRen]

Mauer shut down...helps the L column these last 8 games...

[gunnarthor]

We shouldn't, but we then also shouldn't ignore the Pohlads' vocal affirmation that the Twins do not have any financial limitations.

 

In that scenario, the only limitations are the GM's ability or willingness to use those resources.

 

I think the Pohlad's are happy to have a GM like Ryan who has had success with small payrolls and is willing to jump on a grenade for them on payroll issues. I think the Pohlad's fired Smith b/c he wanted to spend money. I don't blame Ryan for that.

[clutterheart]

So looks like #5 or 6 looks to be almost a lock

Unfortunately this means we will have to watch Det celebrate at Target Field.

At least their is no pool for them to jump into.

[Brandon]

I see us getting either the 4th pick or 5th as Seattle is now 3 games back and has the 6th pick currently but the Twins at 66-92 are only a .5 game back of the Cubs who are 66-93 for the 4th pick. Looks like this one will go down to the wire. I hope the Twins pull this one out. (and get the 4th pick)

[howieramone1406390264]

I see us getting either the 4th pick or 5th as Seattle is now 3 games back and has the 6th pick currently but the Twins at 66-92 are only a .5 game back of the Cubs who are 66-93 for the 4th pick. Looks like this one will go down to the wire. I hope the Twins pull this one out. (and get the 4th pick)

I'm just starting to take a look at the way too early projected picks. 4th would be great, but 5th will work just fine. As an OP has stated this draft is made for us. At a quick glance, I see our C or SS of the future, or an ace.

[cmb0252]

-We are only .5 games behind the Cubs. We would have to finish with a worse record because in a tie they would get the higher pick

-We have 4 games vs a team still fighting for a playoff spot while the Cubs have 3 games vs a team who has insured a spot.

-Seattle is currently up 3-0 in the 7th and if they win that makes it certain we at least get 5.

-With Mauer/Arcia out there is not much to root for except for the Twins to get the 4th overall pick two years in a row.

[gunnarthor]

-

-With Mauer/Arcia out there is not much to root for except for the Twins to get the 4th overall pick two years in a row.

 

Yep.

[nicksaviking]

Well I know most people want to see Gardy gone, me included, but he's been a good soldier for this club and fired or not, Twins fans really have no reason to actually dislike the man. I'd like to see him get his 1,000 win. Just not sure I'd prefer that over the #4 pick.

 

Missing out on both marks would probably be a disappointing scenario but disappointment abounds at Target Field lately so that's exactly what I expect to happen.

[InfraRen]

I see Seattle won, so we've got 5th in the bag with hopes for 4th. Honestly hoping we lose out and grab the 4th spot. Future is more important than 1000 wins for Gardy.