Reverse Standings and the 2014 MLB Draft

[Brandon]

At this point i am actually rooting for a last place finish as with another strong draft we will have that much more talent available in a few years as the Twins start to win again. Also if the Twins can sign 1 or both of the FA international players Masahiro Tanaka or Alexander Guerrero that would fill the remaining questions marks of ACE pitcher and SS for a while. I wonder if these FA players can see that we are that close to being a dominant team again. And if all things being equal would either pick Minnesota for that reason.

[Mike Sixel]

I can't see anyone picking MN for it's possible goodness....money is going to be the only thing that gets players here.

[pierre75275]

Deduno went on the DL as did Ramirez. Not sure if that hurts or helps our quest to pick third next June

[Mr. Brooks]

I can't see anyone picking MN for it's possible goodness....money is going to be the only thing that gets players here.

 

Why is that? Minnesota is a great place to live.

You could do a whole lot worse than Minnesota.

[cmb0252]

After taking 2 of 3 from the rangers the Twins fell from 5th to 6th in the reverse standing. The draft day has been announced and will be help on June 5th.

 

Date set for 2014 First-Year Player Draft | MLB.com: News

[cmb0252]

After dropping 4 straight games, 1 to the lastros and 3 to the blue jays, the Twins are 5th in the reverse standing. With 22 games left the twins only have 4 games verse teams under .500 so we have a chance to move up a few picks. The #1 and #2 picks are out of reach but we are 4.5 behind the white Sox, whom we play 3 times, and 1.5 behind the cubs.

 

Is pick #3 and #5 all that different value wise? Historically there is not really a statistical difference between the two but under the new system where money is capped I would argue there is a huge difference. Take last year for example. Would you rather have Stewart at slot or Gray at under slot? Only a pick difference.

[diehardtwinsfan]

The cubs have played 3 more games than us too, so in a way the destiny is in our hands to lose those games. I don't think at this point that the WS are going to leap us, but I'd rather pick 4 overall than 6. The Brewers are right there with us too.

[cmb0252]

The cubs have played 3 more games than us too, so in a way the destiny is in our hands to lose those games. I don't think at this point that the WS are going to leap us, but I'd rather pick 4 overall than 6. The Brewers are right there with us too.

 

Good call mentioning the Brewers. I forgot to mention they are .5 games behind us. With how deep this draft looks currently as long as we are in the top 8 I see us getting a true elite talent. For those who care more about need the BPA will be happy seeing currently the drafts strength is pitching/SS. Might be another HS guy but getting elite talent is getting elite talent.

[gunnarthor]

Good call mentioning the Brewers. I forgot to mention they are .5 games behind us. With how deep this draft looks currently as long as we are in the top 8 I see us getting a true elite talent. For those who care more about need the BPA will be happy seeing currently the drafts strength is pitching/SS. Might be another HS guy but getting elite talent is getting elite talent.

 

I agree but I think I'm secretly rooting for us to lose these games.

[Oxtung]

Minnesota's schedule coming up: 7 with Oakland, 3 with Tampa Bay, 3 with Detroit, 4 with Cleveland and 3 with the White Sox. That's 3 games with teams under .500.

 

The Cubs have a very difficult schedule remaining as well, arguably more difficult than the Twins. 3 with Cincinnati, 7 with Pittsburgh, 3 with Atlanta, 3 with St. Louis and 4 with Milwaukee. So that is 4 games against sub-.500 teams.

 

Milwaukee's schedule is a little easier but they still play mostly >.500 teams. 6 with St. Louis, 3 with Cincinnati, 3 with Atlanta, 4 with Cubs and 4 with Mets. So that's 8 games with teams <.500.

 

The White Sox schedule is not quite as hard as Minnesota or the Cubs but still difficult. They have 6 games with Detroit, 6 with Cleveland, 4 with the Royals, 3 with Minnesota and 1 with Toronto. That's 4 games with teams under .500.

 

Looking at those schedules I would say the Cubs have the hardest followed by Minnesota, the White Sox, and Milwaukee with the "easiest".

[cmb0252]

Minnesota's schedule coming up: 7 with Oakland, 3 with Tampa Bay, 3 with Detroit, 4 with Cleveland and 3 with the White Sox. That's 3 games with teams under .500.

 

The Cubs have a very difficult schedule remaining as well, arguably more difficult than the Twins. 3 with Cincinnati, 7 with Pittsburgh, 3 with Atlanta, 3 with St. Louis and 4 with Milwaukee. So that is 4 games against sub-.500 teams.

 

Milwaukee's schedule is a little easier but they still play mostly >.500 teams. 6 with St. Louis, 3 with Cincinnati, 3 with Atlanta, 4 with Cubs and 4 with Mets. So that's 8 games with teams <.500.

 

The White Sox schedule is not quite as hard as Minnesota or the Cubs but still difficult. They have 6 games with Detroit, 6 with Cleveland, 4 with the Royals, 3 with Minnesota and 1 with Toronto. That's 4 games with teams under .500.

 

Looking at those schedules I would say the Cubs have the hardest followed by Minnesota, the White Sox, and Milwaukee with the "easiest".

 

Oh balls, I didn't notice our schedule was comparable to the other teams. Hopefully we stay in the top 5 for one more year before showing some improvement next year.

[cmb0252]

Twins are #5 in the reverse standings with 12 games to go. 1 more vs the white suxs, 4 vs Cleveland and Oakland, and 3 vs Detroit. Only 1 game vs a team not in the playoff hunt. They are 1.5 games back of the cubs for the 4th overall pick and 1.5 games ahead of the mariners.

[Oxtung]

Twins are #5 in the reverse standings with 12 games to go. 1 more vs the white suxs, 4 vs Cleveland and Oakland, and 3 vs Detroit. Only 1 game vs a team not in the playoff hunt. They are 1.5 games back of the cubs for the 4th overall pick and 1.5 games ahead of the mariners.

 

To update the other teams as well:

 

Chicago Cubs:

2 @ Milwaukee, 3vs. Atlanta, 3 vs. Pittsburgh, 3 @ St. Louis. Brutal.

 

Seattle Mariners:

2 @ Detroit, 3 @ Angels, 3 vs. Royals, 3 vs. Oakland. A bit easier than the Twins.

 

Milwaukee Brewers:

2 vs. Cubs, 3 vs. St. Louis, 3 @ Atlanta, 4 @ Mets. That bodes well for the Twinkies.

 

Chicago White Sox:

3 @ Detroit, 1 vs. Toronto, 2 @ Cleveland, 4 vs. Royals. Slightly easier than the Twins.

 

Prognosticator Ox says the Twins end up with the 5th pick. Man, the Twins aren't the only team tanking this September. Winning percentages this month: White Sox .235, Mariners .250, Cubs .375, Twins .375.

[nicksaviking]

Prognosticator Ox says the Twins end up with the 5th pick. Man, the Twins aren't the only team tanking this September. Winning percentages this month: White Sox .235, Mariners .250, Cubs .375, Twins .375.

 

And every one of those managers is on the hot seat, which means they actually have incentive to put the best team on the field. Pretty sad there's such a talant gap with the bottom tier teams.

[cmb0252]

5th sounds about right and with how deep this years draft looks It could lead to a pretty darn good prospect. At this point a pitcher or SS look likely.

[TRex]

I got all excited because we are only 1 W from 4th place, then I wondered what happened when two teams tie? I looked it up, and the team with the worse record from the year before wins (loses?). That means Chicago wins the tie, and we are actually 2 W back... with only 10 games to go:( . However, we have the tiebreaker over Milwaukee, so there is now almost no way that we are worse than fifth (i.e. even if Milwaukee goes 0-10, we would need to go 4-6).

[Major League Ready]

I got all excited because we are only 1 W from 4th place, then I wondered what happened when two teams tie? I looked it up, and the team with the worse record from the year before wins (loses?). That means Chicago wins the tie, and we are actually 2 W back... with only 10 games to go:( . However, we have the tiebreaker over Milwaukee, so there is now almost no way that we are worse than fifth (i.e. even if Milwaukee goes 0-10, we would need to go 4-6).

 

I have been watching the box scores specifically for Chicago, Milwaukee, and a couple others who were close. Milwaukee pulled away this last week as they played head to head. I will be pulling for them down the stretch but it looks like we will be 5th. I am going to be disappointed if a top notch college SP goes 4th if there is not a similar prospect at 5. This pick could be really important to rounding out this team in a couple years. I like our odds of having very good position players by the middle of the 2015 season. We need a SP or two from this next draft.

[Brandon]

as of yesterday we were 1.5 games out of 4th pick from the Cubs and Seattle was only 1 game back of us for the 6th pick. It seems a safe bet we won't drop any lower than that. right now just rootin for the Cubs so we can get the 4th pick next year.

[twinsfan34]

To update the other teams as well:

 

Chicago Cubs:

2 @ Milwaukee, 3vs. Atlanta, 3 vs. Pittsburgh, 3 @ St. Louis. Brutal.

 

Seattle Mariners:

2 @ Detroit, 3 @ Angels, 3 vs. Royals, 3 vs. Oakland. A bit easier than the Twins.

 

Milwaukee Brewers:

2 vs. Cubs, 3 vs. St. Louis, 3 @ Atlanta, 4 @ Mets. That bodes well for the Twinkies.

 

Chicago White Sox:

3 @ Detroit, 1 vs. Toronto, 2 @ Cleveland, 4 vs. Royals. Slightly easier than the Twins.

 

Prognosticator Ox says the Twins end up with the 5th pick. Man, the Twins aren't the only team tanking this September. Winning percentages this month: White Sox .235, Mariners .250, Cubs .375, Twins .375.

 

As long as we're no worse than 5th. I'm pretty happy about it. It looks like the Brewers and Mariners have favorable schedules to stay with a better record than the Twins. I'd love for the Cubs to end up worse, but they play ATL, STL, & PIT - top 3 teams in the NL - all still vying for better seedings in the playoffs.

 

I like both the NC State products, LHP and the SS. However, for the Twins...not sure SS is a higher priority. The LHP will likely go top 3. The big power righty, Tyler Kolek, a high schooler from TX, might be a possibility at #4 or #5. He would fit in with their timetable of developing arms, e.g. Stewart, Barrios, etc.

 

Scout.com: Top 5 Prep Arms For The 2014 Draft

[diehardtwinsfan]

Trea Turner might not be a bad grab at 4/5 as he should be an above average regular and much quicker to the majors, but I think they should know by June if Dozier/Rosario can be a decent MI combo. I think I'd rather take the HS SS Gatewood (higher ceiling than Turner) if they want a SS prospect or another power pitcher, because quite frankly, you cannot ever had enough of those. The nice thing about this draft is that it is appearing to be top heavy in elite talent at SS and SP, both of which the Twins can use desparately. I'm not going to cry if they walk away with an SP or a SS with that pick, and from what I've seen, they should have no problems doing that.

[howieramone1406390264]

The Twins will take the BPA. That said, I believe they will take a college player who can make his way to Target Field ASAP. When Ryan took 30 days of Morneau, and wallet full of 2.3M in large bills to spend 4 days in Indianapolis, I don't believe he was looking for Presly and a PTBNL. He was trying to snatch one of the Pirates top starting pitching prospects. IMO the Twins will sacrifice ceiling to get players on the field, sooner rather than later.

[Siehbiscuit]

I definitely would prefer a college shortstop over a higher upside high school kid. Kids bodies develop differently and keep growing. See Cuddyer and T. Plouffe.

 

I'm still in draft bpa college pitcher camp, though. Twins need arms soon.

[cmb0252]

Twins will take BPA regardless of need. Luckily, this year need and BPA should be one and the same. Now, if it will be a college player or HS player that's a different story. As of now my top 5 has 2 college pitchers, a college SS, a HS pitcher, and a HS catcher/of. Twins might end up taking the best HS player for the third year in a row.

[cmb0252]

One thing to note is not only is there possibly 8 elite talents at the top of the draft but the draft looks to be a deep one too. Especially with HS pitching. Last years perfect games all-american game, showcase for the best HS prospects, only one pitcher hit 94 (our own Kohl Stewart). This year 10 pitchers threw harder than 95. 10! Just something to keep in mind.

[ThePuck]

SI says this about HS shortstop Jacob Gatewood:

 

Perkin likens Gatewood (6-foot-5, 190 pounds) to a young Troy Tulowitzki and calls him a "once-in-a-decade talent," noting his fastball reaches 92 mph on the mound, his "ballet-like fielding skills" and his prodigious power.

[diehardtwinsfan]

One thing to note is not only is there possibly 8 elite talents at the top of the draft but the draft looks to be a deep one too. Especially with HS pitching. Last years perfect games all-american game, showcase for the best HS prospects, only one pitcher hit 94 (our own Kohl Stewart). This year 10 pitchers threw harder than 95. 10! Just something to keep in mind.

 

Yep... hoping one is still there in round 2.

[diehardtwinsfan]

The Twins will take the BPA. That said, I believe they will take a college player who can make his way to Target Field ASAP. When Ryan took 30 days of Morneau, and wallet full of 2.3M in large bills to spend 4 days in Indianapolis, I don't believe he was looking for Presly and a PTBNL. He was trying to snatch one of the Pirates top starting pitching prospects. IMO the Twins will sacrifice ceiling to get players on the field, sooner rather than later.

 

We've had the BPA debate, not sure to redo it here. I don't doubt they will go with their BPA... That said, the best players (so far), fit nicely to our needs, though truth be told, ace pitching is always BPA... at least in my opinion.

 

That said, the issue here is that BPA is a factor of many things, including closeness. Obviously, the college ace is desired, but there's a reason he goes 1-1. The next wave is weak in the infield and pitching. If you can count on a Dozier/Rosario MI for the next few years, then grabbing Trea Turner at the expense of Gatewood or a pitcher isn't the right choice.

[Kwak]

SI says this about HS shortstop Jacob Gatewood:

 

Perkin likens Gatewood (6-foot-5, 190 pounds) to a young Troy Tulowitzki and calls him a "once-in-a-decade talent," noting his fastball reaches 92 mph on the mound, his "ballet-like fielding skills" and his prodigious power.

 

I noticed Gatewood too (in another write-up). HS Jr, 6'5" and 190#--I see 230# very soon. If Gatewood's (high) value to the Twins was as a SS, I am convinced he will grow out of that position. Sano was "signed" as a SS--and is about 240#. Sano will need some serious weight control just to stay at 3B. However, if Gatewood is a true ++ power-hitter, then that's different. Another position can be found for a real slugger.

[cmb0252]

Yep... hoping one is still there in round 2.

 

The Twins are going to finish in the top 10 and have a protected pick, if we sign a good free agent we might lose our 2nd round pick. While for fans it is easy to say who cares get the FA now I'm not sure our front office will feel the same way. Just makes the off season a little more interesting.

[nicksaviking]

The Twins will take the BPA. That said, I believe they will take a college player who can make his way to Target Field ASAP. When Ryan took 30 days of Morneau, and wallet full of 2.3M in large bills to spend 4 days in Indianapolis, I don't believe he was looking for Presly and a PTBNL. He was trying to snatch one of the Pirates top starting pitching prospects. IMO the Twins will sacrifice ceiling to get players on the field, sooner rather than later.

 

Those statements completely contradict each other.

 

Any GM who goes the later route with a top 5 pick needs to be removed from his duties. While I am critical of Ryan, I do not believe he would actually do that with a #4 or #5 pick.