Reverse Standings and the 2014 MLB Draft

[cmb0252]

BaseballAmerica released their top 10 players from the Area CodeGames. Here is the link:

 

Area Code Games Top 10 Prospects - BaseballAmerica.com

[Guest USAFChief]

You can scout well all you want, but you can't get the elite of the elite picking late in the draft....

That's a bit strong, Mike. Albert Pujols went in the 13th round.

 

Mike Trout went with the 25th pick.

 

I could go on.

 

It's certainly easier the higher you draft, but you can find talent, including the "elite of the elite" if you're good and perhaps a bit lucky.

 

I would be fine with the Twins drafting near the bottom of the list for the next couple decades...including dead last a couple three times.

[cmb0252]

For any of you out there that are interested in seeing some of the best young HS prospects and have the MLB Network, they will be playing the under armor all-star game. A lot of possible draft picks will be playing.

[ScottyB]

As of this morning (8/28) the Twins are just 2 1/2 games from the 3rd pick, with the 5th pick in the draft. But it's still stacked up with a 5 1/2 game swing between the 3rd pick and the 15th. So right now we're 2 1/2 games and 2 picks out of 3rd and 3 games and 10 picks out of 15th. What a jam-up of crappy teams this year!

[Mike Sixel]

That's a bit strong, Mike. Albert Pujols went in the 13th round.

 

Mike Trout went with the 25th pick.

 

I could go on.

 

It's certainly easier the higher you draft, but you can find talent, including the "elite of the elite" if you're good and perhaps a bit lucky.

 

I would be fine with the Twins drafting near the bottom of the list for the next couple decades...including dead last a couple three times.

 

 

Yup, agreed, should have typed "its more likely" rather than "can't"......but again, how's that going for the Twins in the last 5-10 years? Not so well......

[bird]

Yup, agreed, should have typed "its more likely" rather than "can't"......but again, how's that going for the Twins in the last 5-10 years? Not so well......

 

Again, it's too early to make a definitive statement, but there's some evidence that it's been going better than "not so well" over the last 10 years, especially if one compares the results against the rest of baseball.

[ThePuck]

Yup, agreed, should have typed "its more likely" rather than "can't"......but again, how's that going for the Twins in the last 5-10 years? Not so well......

 

Not so well indeed, then again, St Louis has been in the same boat as us during that time frame and they seem to be doing just fine in that department. Maybe it has more to do with who we pick when we do pick AND how we develope them.

[cmb0252]

As of this morning (8/28) the Twins are just 2 1/2 games from the 3rd pick, with the 5th pick in the draft. But it's still stacked up with a 5 1/2 game swing between the 3rd pick and the 15th. So right now we're 2 1/2 games and 2 picks out of 3rd and 3 games and 10 picks out of 15th. What a jam-up of crappy teams this year!

 

Pretty crazy how close everyone is at the bottom. There is a huge difference in value in the #3 pick and a pick in the mid teens.

[Mike Sixel]

Again, it's too early to make a definitive statement, but there's some evidence that it's been going better than "not so well" over the last 10 years, especially if one compares the results against the rest of baseball.

 

three conseecutive 90 loss seasons, no one on AAA to even call up for a tryout two years in a row, right? 1 player under 28 on the roster for more than 1 year that is any good at all.....how am I to judge the minors, other than if they turn out players that help the team win?

[gunnarthor]

three conseecutive 90 loss seasons, no one on AAA to even call up for a tryout two years in a row, right? 1 player under 28 on the roster for more than 1 year that is any good at all.....how am I to judge the minors, other than if they turn out players that help the team win?

 

I'm honestly not sure what to make of this post. It seems to be making end points to fit a theme rather than reflect reality. The Twins have brought up a lot of players in the last two years (even some from AAA although why should we care if they are coming from AA or AAA?), Dozier, Florimon, Hicks, Arcia, Gibson, Diamond, Colebllo, Albers, Fein etc. Dozier (3.2 WAR) and Florimon (2.5) are both good, under 28 and seem to have settled in to set up a nice MI for the first time in a decade.

 

The Twins are clearly building a new core to go around the next wave of talent. The first part of the wave showed up this year in Hicks, Arcia and Gibson (Dozier and Florimon are nice pieces to go with it). Wait until the rest of the wave shows up. The 2000 Twins lost 93 games with 27 year old Radke and Koskie, 25 year old Jones, 24 yr old Milton, Mays, Ortiz, Hunter and under 22 guys like Guzman, Santana and Rivas. Give it time. Do you honestly think Ryan isn't rebuilding correctly? Do you think a future foundation of Buxton, Sano, Gibson, Meyer, Hicks, Arcia, Rosario, Mauer, etc is a bad plan?

[ashbury]

Pretty crazy how close everyone is at the bottom. There is a huge difference in value in the #3 pick and a pick in the mid teens.

 

If last night's bullpen blowup is any indication, we should be "fine" the rest of the way.

[cmb0252]

If last night's bullpen blowup is any indication, we should be "fine" the rest of the way.

 

22 games of our last 32 are against teams with winning records. Several of them fighting for play off spots.

[Mike Sixel]

Good for more than 1 year was the key part there.....Valencia was good for a year, Plouffe was for a year......I'm hopeful on Dozier, but I'd like more than 1 year of success, maybe I was not clear enough there.

[jokin]

If last night's bullpen blowup is any indication, we should be "fine" the rest of the way.

 

You may have spotted a developing trend. 5 of the 8 Twins relievers are having a worse second half in terms of ERA than the first half. But surprisingly, the Twins RP ERA is 2.90 for the second half and 3.17 in the first half, as Swarzak, Duensing and Roenicke are significantly better since the All Star break, and coupled with much better SP going deeper into games (4.67 ERA in 2nd half vs. 5.23 ERA in 1st half).

 

In the big picture germane to the thread topic, and sharpening the parameters for trend-detection, only the White Sox have a better RP ERA for the month of August than the Twins amongst their 8 "competitors" for the #3 spot in the draft (2.41ERA vs 3.35). This has been key to the Whities recent resurgence and suggests that they could very well pass the Twins in the standings going up and in the draft slot going down. The "bad news" is that there are plenty of teams just "behind" the Twins in the draft slot standings whose bullpens are falling apart in August- Angels (5.35 ERA), Blue Jays (4.71), Giants (4.68) and Mariners (4.67).

[Monkeypaws]

The Twins are one game behind/ahead of the 4th pick (Cubs/Brewers), but if they start winning they are four games off the 14th pick (Rockies). So lots of volatility.

 

That is incredible and somewhat depressing to think a modest and meaningless winning streak at this point could move this team near the top half of the MLB standings.

 

BTW, notice how Morneau's production is drying up as we approach another trade deadline? If he stays, expect a spike in September's numbers.

[cmb0252]

That is incredible and somewhat depressing to think a modest and meaningless winning streak at this point could move this team near the top half of the MLB standings.

 

BTW, notice how Morneau's production is drying up as we approach another trade deadline? If he stays, expect a spike in September's numbers.

 

While everyone enjoys when the Twins win it does bring up an interesting situation. Win a few meaningless games and finish strong or end horrid and get a good pick.

[cmb0252]

East Carolina's Jeff Hoffman has been sky rocketing up draft boards after his solid performance in the cape league 33k/5 bb in 24.1 innings. His fastball sits in the mid 90s and has reportedly hit 98. Add in a solid curve ball and change up from a 6'4 200 lbs frame and you have a front of the rotation starter. He was considered a mid first round talent before the cape but some experts have him in their top 5 currently with an off chance to challenge Rodan for #1.

 

The top 5 this year has a chance to be amazing.

[cmb0252]

Also, here is Kiley McDaniels early top 50 list:

 

Scout.com: Top 50 Prospects for 2014 MLB Draft

 

McDaniels top 5 is the same as Jim Callis top 5.

[kab21]

A 3rd high upside SS in the top half of the first rd to go with Turner and Gatewood. I don't care if HS'ers take 3-5 yrs to make it I like the upside. Several arms look real nice also.

 

15. Ti'quan Forbes, SS, Columbia HS (MS), Ole Miss commit

 

Quick Take: Athletic 6'4 prep shortstop has huge potential: he racks up hits in games off top pitching and is one of the youngest players in the draft class.

[cmb0252]

A 3rd high upside SS in the top half of the first rd to go with Turner and Gatewood. I don't care if HS'ers take 3-5 yrs to make it I like the upside. Several arms look real nice also.

 

15. Ti'quan Forbes, SS, Columbia HS (MS), Ole Miss commit

 

Quick Take: Athletic 6'4 prep shortstop has huge potential: he racks up hits in games off top pitching and is one of the youngest players in the draft class.

 

Don't forget Gordon. But yeah, Forbes is a solid prospect. This could be the deepest first round short stop class in 10 years. Add in all the great arms and twins have a good chance to score a stud prospect at a need position.

 

Here are Matt Garrioch's write ups on the two SS prospects.

 

Ti'Quan Forbes is an elite athlete. He has that loose swagger that I've only seen a few times, most memorably in Randy Moss. He just has that aura. His speed is plus-plus. He has a really good arm, good defensive ability and his power projects plus as well. Defensively, he needs to improve but has the athleticism to be a true five tool player.

 

Nick Gordon has all the tools. He is fast, extremely good defensively and has the family rocket attached to the upper right side of his body. He has more pop than his brother. He strikes the ball better than Dee and should be a well above average shortstop offensively and defensively.

[kab21]

gordon is a legit 1st rd'er but Forbes is mouth watering.

[gunnarthor]

Thanks for the updates cmb. I don't think we can lose enough to get Rodon but Hoffman sounds enticing.

[pierre75275]

We might be able to if we package both Willingham and JM in a waiver deal

[ashbury]

We might be able to if we package both Willingham and JM in a waiver deal

 

I wonder how well the main fan base would react to receiving "just" a low-minors stud pitching prospect at the cost of two aging starters. My guess is: not well.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I wonder how well the main fan base would react to receiving "just" a low-minors stud pitching prospect at the cost of two aging starters. My guess is: not well.

 

There's some truth to that, especially since both are well liked by the fans... Though I think from a business perspective, it's worth the risk.

[jay]

I wonder how well the main fan base would react to receiving "just" a low-minors stud pitching prospect at the cost of two aging starters. My guess is: not well.

 

This is very real and often understated here. Anyone posting on these boards is in an extremely minor percentile of knowledge and rabidness. While we can mostly support shipping off veterans in the name of a rebuild, the vast majority of the fan base (and, for that matter, $ generators) would be incredibly upset.

 

This just isn't a video game where you can do whatever, trade whatever, sign whatever... although I seem to recall using that strategy quite well in the franchise mode of MLB '04 for the PS2.

[InfraRen]

Instead of me asking every-so-often, is there a site that tracks the current 2014 Draft order each day?

[jay]

Those top 4 on Kiley and Callis' lists are a tier to themselves, IMO. Plenty of names throughout those list though that have the potential to breakout even more with a strong year.

 

Nice to see lots of P, SS, C. Still have to go BPA, but OF is the only spot to even consider shying from with that top pick.

[Vervehound]

Instead of me asking every-so-often, is there a site that tracks the current 2014 Draft order each day?

 

you're opposed to looking at the standings page on every baseball website? get a sortable list and go smallest to largest on win pct.

[ScottyB]

Instead of me asking every-so-often, is there a site that tracks the current 2014 Draft order each day?

 

Reverse Standings (MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com)