Article: Ron Gardenhire talks September roster

[LaBombo]

Maybe so and neither are okay, but I'm sensing a pretty consistent trend in posts from that user today... and more use of the ignore function might be a better approach. Just my take.

jay, if I'm your Friday buzzkill, I apologize. Not my intention. C'mon, don't put me on the ignore list, it's the crazy people who say the most interesting things...

[LaBombo]

Does that include the Twins covering the $3M? So, you think they can pay the $3M and get a Sulbaran Low-A decent arm-type in return?

Yes. And maybe they could, maybe not.

 

The point of all of this is not that the franchise will fall further into ruin if they don't do a deal like that.

 

The point is that it would be nice to hear that they'd be willing to do that kind of deal if it were available. It sure sounds so far like they're not willing to.

[Major League Ready]

That said, the Twins aren't really cheap in this instance. If they were cheap the Twins would pay the absolute minimum and move Morneau for the salary relief. I do think the Twins are overvaluing Morneau's, well I don't know what they're overvaluing but something, otherwise he would be moved for the best package available. It's clear they believe there is a benefit derived by having Morneau on this team for another 35ish games. I'll be damned if I can figure out what that is though.

 

Like you, I see no reason to let Morneau take ABs away from any prospect even if their odds of making it at the major leauge level. I seriously doubt the FO believes there is a reason to keep him here. You have to believe Ryan just has not gotten the player in return he believes he can get. We still have a week left before the deadline. The odds are he could go back and execute a deal for the player(s) that have been offered at this point.

 

I commend him for holding out. Morneau looks like he is capable of going on a really nice run right now. If that happens, we likely get a nice prospect. If he does nothing, so what, if Ryan was not getting any decent offers. Plus, who knows, someone could get injured.

 

It looks to me like the primary motivation is to net a prospect with a real chance of playing MLB and that offer has yet to be made. If this were really about money, they would have done a pure salary dump.

[Major League Ready]

Yes. And maybe they could, maybe not.

 

The point of all of this is not that the franchise will fall further into ruin if they don't do a deal like that.

 

The point is that it would be nice to hear that they'd be willing to do that kind of deal if it were available. It sure sounds so far like they're not willing to.

 

I would be very disappointed if we heard the Twins were willing to take the $3M hit because that would be an indication to me that Terry Ryan is not the negotiator I believe him to be. Whoever said other teams have already spent their budget hit the nail on the head. They want an upgrade but don't have the budget. You don't concede a primary consideration like this until the end. You use it it get the other side to up the level of prospect. You want our player and us to pay is a considerable demand. Great ... come back to that request by asking for a better prospect. You never concede that negotiating point early.

[jay]

I would be very disappointed if we heard the Twins were willing to take the $3M hit because that would be an indication to me that Terry Ryan is not the negotiator I believe him to be.

 

Exactly. If you need an example of a guy who would make deals to make deals and how that turns out, you don't have to look any further than ol' Billy Smith.

 

I seriously doubt the FO believes there is a reason to keep him here.

 

I agree with everything you said except this. Right or wrong, I do think the FO values keeping him here to an extent.

 

The point is that it would be nice to hear that they'd be willing to do that kind of deal if it were available. It sure sounds so far like they're not willing to.

 

I agree with your first point, but I just haven't seen enough to convince me of the second part. I do believe the Twins are asking for a bit more (but not a ton more) than a Sulbaran type if they're covering the $3M. If some team is desperate enough, great. If not, stick to your horses and play it out.

[drjim]

Will you ever tell us why? Or is it a trade secret, like the Twins use of cybermetrics?

 

And if you're able, can you respond without the lame snippy remarks this time?

 

Is it lame and snippy to say took a look at the return for bats so far this season? It is practically nonexistent. I don't think teams give much up for bats, much less bats that are below average.

 

Butera was a unique example because he is a catcher. Dodgers saw the wisdom of having depth at that position.

[Oxtung]

Is it lame and snippy to say took a look at the return for bats so far this season? It is practically nonexistent. I don't think teams give much up for bats, much less bats that are below average.

 

Butera was a unique example because he is a catcher. Dodgers saw the wisdom of having depth at that position.

 

Are you really making the argument here that drew Butera and $150k in salary is more valuable than Justin Morneau is free of charge? I can't believe that is true. At a bare minimum the twins could get back some A-ball flier. That to me is worth more than 30 days of Morneau at the end of a lost season where potential replacements are already sitting on the bench.

 

Major League- the problem with your theory is that every day that Ryan holds onto Morneau he loses value. At this point the only things that can change his value in a positive manner is an injury. The chances of that seem unlikely.

 

Look at I this way. If you were trying to acquire 60 days of Justin Morneau and offered up "Prospect A" and the Twins said no but came back to you a month later, now only 30 days of Justin remain, and said well we've reconsidered we'll take "Prospect A" now. Would you still give him up? I sure wouldn't.

 

Many of you also said we just hold to Morneau because the return isn't good enough. How does that help the Twins return to the top of the division?

[jay]

I think control matters more early in the year and off-season. If you were a playoff team 30 days ago and you're still one today, your purpose for Morneau remains the same. You may in fact just as well be more determined to acquire talent now than you were before.

 

Many of you also said we just hold to Morneau because the return isn't good enough. How does that help the Twins return to the top of the division?

 

I'm starting to come around on making the move... if only to support the points I've been making about TR's strength of acquiring skill in the low minors.

[terencemann]

I did chuckle at that, but you should probably remove the next sentence of your post.

 

What is a realistic return for the guys that are heavily advocating the move? Pay all of the salary and get xx? Pay some and get xx? I'd be curious to hear some examples.

 

If they can gain a player they can use in the future and they're not planning to bring Morneau back, then they should eat whatever they have to. It's a sunk cost on a losing season. It can only help them as sliding down in the standings could get them a better draft pick. As a Cubs fan, I know my other team is coming for the Twins' draft slot pretty hard

[jay]

If they can gain a player they can use in the future and they're not planning to bring Morneau back, then they should eat whatever they have to.

 

Of course. I don't think anyone here has said otherwise. It just depends on how broadly you define "player" and "use".

[darin617]

Is Gardy part of the September coaching staff should be the real discussion. Take Rick Anderson with you and start singing Happy Trails together.

[LaBombo]

Is it lame and snippy to say took a look at the return for bats so far this season? It is practically nonexistent. I don't think teams give much up for bats, much less bats that are below average.

 

Butera was a unique example because he is a catcher. Dodgers saw the wisdom of having depth at that position.

No, jmo that it is to make a blanket characterization of dissenting opinions as "angry" and "whining". Not a big deal, just doesn't add much.

 

At any rate, your supposition that Drew Butera had markedly greater trade value than Justin Morneau is an interesting takeaway from this to enjoy for the weekend. Cheers.

[Thegrin]

The Twins started the season with 4 major league hitters. Mauer, Morneau, Willingham and Doumit. If the Twins trade any of them before September, without getting a good prospect, they will prove that they are throwing in the towel and are more interested in a bad finish and a good prospect, than an improved season. Keeping them all means that the Twins want to play with integrity and win as many games as possible. Showing their prospects that they won't "quit" is the most valuable lesson the organizational players can learn.

[Major League Ready]

The Twins started the season with 4 major league hitters. Mauer, Morneau, Willingham and Doumit. If the Twins trade any of them before September, without getting a good prospect, they will prove that they are throwing in the towel and are more interested in a bad finish and a good prospect, than an improved season. Keeping them all means that the Twins want to play with integrity and win as many games as possible. Showing their prospects that they won't "quit" is the most valuable lesson the organizational players can learn.

 

This is just one man's opinion but that that type of mindset promotes persistent mediocrity. I hope the Twins FO recognizes that playing the three of them that have no part in the future of this team and taking ABs from prospects that could be part of rebuilding the pathetic state we are in today. I would be quite happy if the Twins announced before the start of the game tonight that they have traded Morneau, Willingham, and Doumit. If they got one good prospect for all three, I would say Hallelujah. Let's move on.

[Oxtung]

I think control matters more early in the year and off-season. If you were a playoff team 30 days ago and you're still one today, your purpose for Morneau remains the same. You may in fact just as well be more determined to acquire talent now than you were before.

 

More determined and of equal value are separate meanings. Even if a team is more determined to trade for a player now, though I can't see why that would be the case, there is no way 30 days of a player is more or equally valuable than 60 days.

[Oxtung]

The Twins started the season with 4 major league hitters. Mauer, Morneau, Willingham and Doumit. If the Twins trade any of them before September, without getting a good prospect, they will prove that they are throwing in the towel and are more interested in a bad finish and a good prospect, than an improved season. Keeping them all means that the Twins want to play with integrity and win as many games as possible. Showing their prospects that they won't "quit" is the most valuable lesson the organizational players can learn.

 

The second place team right now in the wild card has a .563 winning percentage. The Twins would have to go undefeated to surpass that. Literally 36-0. The season is over and has been for quite a while for all intents and purposes and trying to make some stand about never giving up won't change that. It also won't help this 90 loss tragedy from happening again in the future.

[jay]

More determined and of equal value are separate meanings. Even if a team is more determined to trade for a player now, though I can't see why that would be the case, there is no way 30 days of a player is more or equally valuable than 60 days.

 

All other variables held the same, that'd be true. However, that's simply not the case. The time frame of control may be smaller but, for one, the pool of available talent is also much smaller now due to waivers.

 

I could also come up with plenty of examples and/or reasons why a team might give up just as much or more than they would have at the July 31 deadline. Lack of production, injury, changes in the standings, and more could all lead to a clearer picture of what a team needs. We might not have a perfect example to fit Morneau today, but let's not act like it isn't possible.

[Oxtung]

All other variables held the same, that'd be true. However, that's simply not the case. The time frame of control may be smaller but, for one, the pool of available talent is also much smaller now due to waivers.

 

I could also come up with plenty of examples and/or reasons why a team might give up just as much or more than they would have at the July 31 deadline. Lack of production, injury, changes in the standings, and more could all lead to a clearer picture of what a team needs. We might not have a perfect example to fit Morneau today, but let's not act like it isn't possible.

 

My comments to this point have all been about since Aug 1. That would be ~60 days of Morneau until the end of season. If a trade happens near the end of August that is ~30 days of Morneau instead. So the waivers would have no impact since the condition would exist at both points in time. Available talent has decreased however so has available suitors when, for instance, the Yankees acquired Mark Reynolds. So in the end it seems a wash.

 

Lack of production would either be known at the beginning of August and a team would be looking then or it would come from a player that is isn't going to get replaced no matter how big a drop in production. A month late in the season isn't going to suddenly make a team question a player's hitting unless that player was already questionable.

 

I agree injury could suddenly shift the equation. I also think it is incredibly unlikely and a poor strategy to wait for it to happen to one of the handful of teams that could possibly use Morneau.

 

Changes in the standings is possible but still unlikely. If a team is on the fringe of playoff contention and starts winning they aren't going to acquire Morneau. If they start losing big they'll drop out of contention and still not acquire Morneau. The only way it would make sense to me is if a previously uncompetitive team goes on a big winning streak to put them back into contention and they suddenly are now looking for an upgrade. But again that team has to need a first baseman and Morneau has to be an upgrade, which is no given. So again, this is not particularly likely and not something I would like Ryan holding out for.

 

So yes it is possible but like I said before, I can't think of a scenario that is likely to occur where Morneau's value will increase. I do think it is likely that pretty much everyday he spends in a Twins uniform he is losing value.

[jay]

So yes it is possible but like I said before, I can't think of a scenario that is likely to occur where Morneau's value will increase. I do think it is likely that pretty much everyday he spends in a Twins uniform he is losing value.

 

One more important one to throw out there and get your take on... every day Morneau is in a Twins uniform, he's owed less money.

 

If you're the GM on a pretty certain playoff team, you wouldn't really care about getting his August production. If he fits your needs, getting him at the end of August just saved you $2M. If your first option on Aug 1 is $4M and a C prospect, you'd quite possibly consider $2M and a C+ prospect on Aug 31 to be a better deal.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I swear I've said this 100 times on this board, but part of being a good negotiator is learning to say no. Bill Smith was a lousy trader because he went out and got the guy he wanted and didn't say no when a bad deal was offered. That's how we ended up with the Santana mess. Like it or not, if Terry Ryan doesn't get what he wants, he simply says no. I hope this isn't the case with the potential Morneau trade, but if teams are offering only org filler, and expecting the Twins to pay his salary, say no... Period. If a decent prospect is offered, then I'd put it on the table.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I swear I've said this 100 times on this board, but part of being a good negotiator is learning to say no. Bill Smith was a lousy trader because he went out and got the guy he wanted and didn't say no when a bad deal was offered. That's how we ended up with the Santana mess. Like it or not, if Terry Ryan doesn't get what he wants, he simply says no. I hope this isn't the case with the potential Morneau trade, but if teams are offering only org filler, and expecting the Twins to pay his salary, say no... Period. If a decent prospect is offered, then I'd put it on the table.

 

Yep. It'd be great to get a prospect for Justin but if we're in a situation where another team won't offer anything more than org filler that might become a 40-man roster issue in a year, what's the point?

 

Or maybe JR is being stubborn and asking for too much. We simply don't have enough information to make an accurate assessment. I was pretty bent after the trade deadline came and passed but after seeing the end result of the Butera/Sulburan trade, I'm going to give Ryan the benefit of the doubt here. As you said, the most important skill of a negotiator is the ability to say no and if people aren't offering value, you stand pat. Ryan proved that he's willing to part with players if it's a good deal for him.

[Oxtung]

One more important one to throw out there and get your take on... every day Morneau is in a Twins uniform, he's owed less money.

 

If you're the GM on a pretty certain playoff team, you wouldn't really care about getting his August production. If he fits your needs, getting him at the end of August just saved you $2M. If your first option on Aug 1 is $4M and a C prospect, you'd quite possibly consider $2M and a C+ prospect on Aug 31 to be a better deal.

 

I don't see how that changes the equation. Why would you pay more for 30 days less of Morneau? You're also making a big assumption that the Twins are asking the other team to take on his salary. I sure hope Ryan is willing to eat most of that to increase his return.

 

Also, the only team that was virtually a lock to win their division in early August was Atlanta and Freeman is mashing this year. So in reality there is nobody in that position.

 

I swear I've said this 100 times on this board, but part of being a good negotiator is learning to say no. Bill Smith was a lousy trader because he went out and got the guy he wanted and didn't say no when a bad deal was offered. That's how we ended up with the Santana mess. Like it or not, if Terry Ryan doesn't get what he wants, he simply says no. I hope this isn't the case with the potential Morneau trade, but if teams are offering only org filler, and expecting the Twins to pay his salary, say no... Period. If a decent prospect is offered, then I'd put it on the table.

 

 

So you're saying that if Terry Ryan makes this trade ... what?

 

Santana was an elite pitcher that almost every team wanted (whether they could afford him is a different matter). There were multiple offers on the table and he even could be held for another year and then let go after the season and gotten a couple draft picks. There were many alternatives.

 

On the other hand Morneau has no other options. It's move him or lose him and when the Twins lose him there are no draft picks waiting. These are entirely separate trades that have absolutely nothing in common.

[Oxtung]

Yep. It'd be great to get a prospect for Justin but if we're in a situation where another team won't offer anything more than org filler that might become a 40-man roster issue in a year, what's the point?

 

Or maybe JR is being stubborn and asking for too much. We simply don't have enough information to make an accurate assessment. I was pretty bent after the trade deadline came and passed but after seeing the end result of the Butera/Sulburan trade, I'm going to give Ryan the benefit of the doubt here. As you said, the most important skill of a negotiator is the ability to say no and if people aren't offering value, you stand pat. Ryan proved that he's willing to part with players if it's a good deal for him.

 

That's a great sentiment in general, but can you explain to me the value of standing firm and holding Morneau in this case?

[Brock Beauchamp]

That's a great sentiment in general, but can you explain to me the value of standing firm and holding Morneau in this case?

 

You believe that the return offer has a zero chance of becoming a productive MLB player and his future role consists of "40 man roster annoyance".

[Oxtung]

You believe that the return offer has a zero chance of becoming a productive MLB player and his future role consists of "40 man roster annoyance".

 

In order for that to be true a nearly free Morneau would be worth less than Butera costing a few hundred thousand dollars. Do you think that is possible?

[jay]

I don't see how that changes the equation. Why would you pay more for 30 days less of Morneau? You're also making a big assumption that the Twins are asking the other team to take on his salary. I sure hope Ryan is willing to eat most of that to increase his return.

 

It seems like you completely ignored the options. You'd give up more because he's due far less salary. Your intent for Morneau was never dependent on his contributions in August, but rather throughout the playoffs. Therefore, August didn't really matter nor provide value that you cared about, but he's now due $2M less.

 

Whether the Twins were going to cover some of that salary at any time isn't really the point at all because you'd assume the Twins willingness to do that hasn't changed. If the Twins were going to cover $2M on Aug 1, you'd owe Justin $2M and give up a prospect. On Aug 31, if the Twins cover that same $2M, he's now due $0 from the acquiring team... so it seems pretty reasonable that you'd give up a better prospect since you don't have to pay that $2M.

[Otto von Ballpark]

The second place team right now in the wild card has a .563 winning percentage. The Twins would have to go undefeated to surpass that. Literally 36-0.

 

So you're saying there's a chance...

[glunn]

Will you ever tell us why? Or is it a trade secret, like the Twins use of cybermetrics?

 

And if you're able, can you respond without the lame snippy remarks this time?

 

This type of squabbling is not going to be tolerated. I am issuing a warning to cut this out, and if it continues then we are going to start issuing infractions.

[Oxtung]

It seems like you completely ignored the options. You'd give up more because he's due far less salary. Your intent for Morneau was never dependent on his contributions in August, but rather throughout the playoffs. Therefore, August didn't really matter nor provide value that you cared about, but he's now due $2M less.

 

Whether the Twins were going to cover some of that salary at any time isn't really the point at all because you'd assume the Twins willingness to do that hasn't changed. If the Twins were going to cover $2M on Aug 1, you'd owe Justin $2M and give up a prospect. On Aug 31, if the Twins cover that same $2M, he's now due $0 from the acquiring team... so it seems pretty reasonable that you'd give up a better prospect since you don't have to pay that $2M.

 

Look, I disagree with your premise in this scenario, but it doesn't matter. Since Morneau cleared waivers the only team in the situation your describing is the Atlanta Braves and they sure aren't going to trade for Morneau.

 

My points have been:

1) Morneau's value isn't likely to increase.

2) There is no benefit to the Twins tohold onto Morneau.

3) Ryan should be willing to eat as much of the contract as he needs to in order to achieve the best deal he can.

4) A Morneau whose salary is $0 is worth more than Drew Butera whose salary was ~$150k.

[The Wise One]

Look, I disagree with your premise in this scenario, but it doesn't matter. Since Morneau cleared waivers the only team in the situation your describing is the Atlanta Braves and they sure aren't going to trade for Morneau.

 

My points have been:

1) Morneau's value isn't likely to increase.

2) There is no benefit to the Twins tohold onto Morneau.

3) Ryan should be willing to eat as much of the contract as he needs to in order to achieve the best deal he can.

4) A Morneau whose salary is $0 is worth more than Drew Butera whose salary was ~$150k.

There is a concept that you ought to seriously consider. The Butera trade is and always will be a separate event from a Morneau trade.

Whatever Ryan got for Butera was a bonus. Butera plays a completely different position than Morneau. The only similarity that you can have between Morneau and Butera is that they both were employees of the same organization. One player and what happened has absolutely nothing to do with the other. The market price for Morneau is not determined by a backup minor league catcher.

The second concept is there is no value in obtaining another low ceiling player.