Jose Abreu defects

[Thrylos]

If he's not going for more than $10M/per, I think a guy with a floor of a middle-of-the-road 1B is a pretty good bargain.

 

I think what makes me hesitant with Abreu is that Kennys Vargas can be that and more than that potentially, and the Twins' first baseman of the future is Joe Mauer. That said, I think that someone like Kendrys Morales at $5-7M per for 2 years, is more what the Twins need right now, until they are ready to transition to their next first baseman. At this point Morales is a bit more than middle of the road...

[old nurse]

I think what makes me hesitant with Abreu is that Kennys Vargas can be that and more than that potentially, and the Twins' first baseman of the future is Joe Mauer. That said, I think that someone like Kendrys Morales at $5-7M per for 2 years, is more what the Twins need right now, until they are ready to transition to their next first baseman. At this point Morales is a bit more than middle of the road...

 

Morales has primarily been a DH since breaking his leg. It would appear that the Twins prefer to use the DH as a way of resting position players. Not a bad idea if you have enough good position players.

Seattle has so little talent with any power they could make him a qualifying offer

[nicksaviking]

Morales has primarily been a DH since breaking his leg. It would appear that the Twins prefer to use the DH as a way of resting position players. Not a bad idea if you have enough good position players.

Seattle has so little talent with any power they could make him a qualifying offer

 

Agreed. Plus he's on the wrong side of 30 with bad legs. If the Twins had more young pieces set in stone he might be a decent 1-2 year veteran pressence, but the Twins need to get younger as it is. He might be a better signing in 2015 if the Twins have a roster full of players under 26 all with defined roles and positions.

[DaveW]

If the twins are going to be giving out fat contracts it shouldn't be for 1st basemen, it should be for SP, SP, Sp and maybe a SS

[nicksaviking]

If the twins are going to be giving out fat contracts it shouldn't be for 1st basemen, it should be for SP, SP, Sp and maybe a SS

 

No disagreement other than perhaps with the idea that $10M per year maybe isn't such a fat contract considering he'd only be the second highest paid guy on the team.

 

Either way they do it, I'll applaud them if they spend their money on a few actual upgrades as opposed to spreading it out to a bunch of filler as they have in years past.

[Mike Sixel]

I'd have no problem spending it on good filler....a decent LFer gets you 1-2 wins, a decent CF gets you 1-2 wins, 2 decent starters get you another 4-6 wins.....you can win (look at Boston and Oakland this year) by just making every position a win or two better.....

[diehardtwinsfan]

If the twins are going to be giving out fat contracts it shouldn't be for 1st basemen, it should be for SP, SP, Sp and maybe a SS

 

Tend to agree, though it's looking more and more like a 1B/DH spot will be open. I hope they go after Tanaka, but truth be told, Abreau still fits at a position of need.

[nicksaviking]

I'd have no problem spending it on good filler....a decent LFer gets you 1-2 wins, a decent CF gets you 1-2 wins, 2 decent starters get you another 4-6 wins.....you can win (look at Boston and Oakland this year) by just making every position a win or two better.....

 

I guess we have a difference of opinion on filler. The Red Sox gave Victorino, Napoli and Drew a higher per year deal than any external free agent has ever gotten from the Twins. David Ross and Johnny Gomes would likely be similar filler but filler seems a lot more forgivable when you already have a solid team around them. I don't think Ross and Gomes improve the 2013 Twins much if at all.

[cmb0252]

Wolfson tweeted that the Twins will have multiple scouts at Abreu's showcase next week. This is the first time I have seen the Twins linked to him in anyway.

[howieramone1406390264]

Wolfson tweeted that the Twins will have multiple scouts at Abreu's showcase next week. This is the first time I have seen the Twins linked to him in anyway.

 

I agree this is the first time I have heard they are showing interest. I believe I also read there is a showcase in the DR for those who were previously underage.

[TheLeviathan]

Just signing one of these key IFAs would be enough for me to call the offseason a success.

[nicksaviking]

Wolfson tweeted that the Twins will have multiple scouts at Abreu's showcase next week. This is the first time I have seen the Twins linked to him in anyway.

 

Wolfson also says he thinks the Twins are unlikely to sign him as the money (he suggested $55 million) was too much.

 

This attitude has to change. $10 million per year is not too much for the second highest paid player on a MLB team. Ryan and everybody supporting the concept that the Twins are in the finacial class of Pittsburgh, Tampa and Oakland have to stop looking at the total contract and start looking at the money per year. Each year is budgeted independently; after all, the Twins won't carry over any money they DIDN'T use the previous year and add it to the next.

[howieramone1406390264]

Wolfson also says he thinks the Twins are unlikely to sign him as the money (he suggested $55 million) was too much.

 

This attitude has to change. $10 million per year is not too much for the second highest paid player on a MLB team. Ryan and everybody supporting the concept that the Twins are in the finacial class of Pittsburgh, Tampa and Oakland have to stop looking at the total contract and start looking at the money per year. Each year is budgeted independently; after all, the Twins won't carry over any money they DIDN'T use the previous year and add it to the next.

Maybe, maybe not. It was recently brought to my attention on another thread, that the Pohlads made a commitment whereby on average payroll would be 50% of revenue. It one believes they made a firm commitment, it only follows that any shortages are added to the following years. It's a double-edged sword. You either believe they made a commitment to taxpayers for help with the funding of the new stadium, or you don't.

[TheLeviathan]

Maybe, maybe not. It was recently brought to my attention on another thread, that the Pohlads made a commitment whereby on average payroll would be 50% of revenue. It one believes they made a firm commitment, it only follows that any shortages are added to the following years. It's a double-edged sword. You either believe they made a commitment to taxpayers for help with the funding of the new stadium, or you don't.

 

It doesn't follow. They don't do it. It would make sense to, but thy aren't the only team that doesn't operate that way. It's just 100% false that they will carry money forward.

[howieramone1406390264]

It doesn't follow. They don't do it. It would make sense to, but thy aren't the only team that doesn't operate that way. It's just 100% false that they will carry money forward.

Why would the Pohlads renege on their sacred oath to the taxpayers of Hennepin County based on hypothetical other teams? I have no reason to believe they do not carry the money forward. Surely the media would report such a transgression.

[kab21]

Wolfson also says he thinks the Twins are unlikely to sign him as the money (he suggested $55 million) was too much.

 

This attitude has to change. $10 million per year is not too much for the second highest paid player on a MLB team. Ryan and everybody supporting the concept that the Twins are in the finacial class of Pittsburgh, Tampa and Oakland have to stop looking at the total contract and start looking at the money per year. Each year is budgeted independently; after all, the Twins won't carry over any money they DIDN'T use the previous year and add it to the next.

 

I don't have problems with the Twins not spending big on 30-35 yr old FA's. Abreu, tanaka and Guerrero are different cases though since they are in their mid 20's.

[ThePuck]

Why would the Pohlads renege on their sacred oath to the taxpayers of Hennepin County based on hypothetical other teams? I have no reason to believe they do not carry the money forward. Surely the media would report such a transgression.

 

People in the organization, including Pohlad himself, HAVE said that they go year to year and money doesn't carry over. This had been discussed and is well known. Why that is being challenged now is curious.

[TheLeviathan]

Why would the Pohlads renege on their sacred oath to the taxpayers of Hennepin County based on hypothetical other teams? I have no reason to believe they do not carry the money forward. Surely the media would report such a transgression.

 

This has been explained many times but let me preface it with something that will help you listen. This is not a rip on the Twins. This is not being negative. Most every sports team that I'm aware of operates like a business, so it operates on revenues and deficits on a year-by-year basis. It closes the books in this way also. The Twins are no different than anyone else in that they don't take excess revenues and stockpile it for future years. They just don't do it.

 

I'm not making any comment about the taxpayers or payroll obligations in light of that. None. I'm telling you that you're just 100% wrong to think that excess revenues will be carried forward. It's just not how they choose to operate their business, not a transgression. Hopefully snepp or one of the other guys that has the FO's qquotes on this can dig them up to once again bury this notion.

[S.]

Why would the Pohlads renege on their sacred oath to the taxpayers of Hennepin County based on hypothetical other teams? I have no reason to believe they do not carry the money forward. Surely the media would report such a transgression.

Do you truly think that in a few years if/when we're competitive, the Twins are suddenly going to blast payroll up to to $150M or something with a glut of free agent signings to make up for money not spent from other years? If so, why?

[kab21]

Everybody can debate on how much the Twins 'should' spend based on revenues but 2-3 yrs ago they set a budget at 100 or so million and late in the offseason they approved a late signing (pavano) pushing the payroll over 110M.

 

Money from one year doesn't directly carryover to another year but there are times where a team could increase a budget to add an extra player late in the offseason or at the trade deadline. However the Twins are so far away from that being a potential issue that's it's not a consideration as far as this year's (or next year's) budget goes.

 

This team simply needs to get younger so as I have said before spending like like drunken sailors to bring in old vets is silly but Abreu, Guerrero and Tanaka aren't old. The only reason to not spend on them is if the team thinks there is a good chance they are below average players. Overpaying for an average (or better) player in his prime is not a big issue with the Twins payroll flexibility for the next half decade. Overpaying (10-15M/yr) for a borderline starter/reserve would be silly. I just hope they take the chance on one of these guys or someone similar.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Just signing one of these key IFAs would be enough for me to call the offseason a success.

 

Honestly, other than some bullpen trades, I see them doing very little. I'm hoping that very little includes getting one of Tanaka/Abreau... Perferably Tanaka.

[Chance]

This team simply needs to get younger so as I have said before spending like like drunken sailors to bring in old vets is silly but Abreu, Guerrero and Tanaka aren't old. The only reason to not spend on them is if the team thinks there is a good chance they are below average players. Overpaying for an average (or better) player in his prime is not a big issue with the Twins payroll flexibility for the next half decade.

 

This. Thank you!! The Twins front office needs to stop looking at individual caps on what they are willing to spend on a player and start holding themselves to a stricter overall payroll dollar amount. If that number is 100 million there is no reason why the Twins can't over spend (on an individual bases not on an overall payroll) on a couple of these IFAs if they believe that they could positively impact our team. If the players flop, big deal. They were still within their overall budget. There really is no reason to not dish out enough money to bring in Abreu to play first when we don't have a lock to start first next season. Same with Guerrero. I don't call for coaches or GMs jobs, but if we get out bid for Tanaka and he goes elsewhere and looks close to dominate I will be writing articles about holding scouts and the GM accountable for continually failing to make the necessary moves to improve this team. I don't call for jobs because I know it doesn't do any good. No one with control will care what I have to say, but I will feel compelled to say it none-the-less.

[Chance]

Honestly, other than some bullpen trades, I see them doing very little. I'm hoping that very little includes getting one of Tanaka/Abreau... Perferably Tanaka.

 

I honestly hope you are right. I don't want us to do too much and create more average to below average clutter when we can just use our already cluttered top of the minors to fill in if need be. There is no reason, when you have prospects getting close (mid next season) to add more players to the mix. Unless of course the player added is a true, clear cut upgrade at the position.

[Willihammer]

Article on ESPN about Abreu. Jerry Crasnick talked to 4 scouts who were not big fans.

 

 

 

 

 

The scouts were not impressed to say the least. One scout tossed out a contract in the range of 4 years $32-40 million. Of course he also said:

 

 

 

 

It would be interesting to know if this tempers enthusiasm a bit.

 

Its still very early, but for all the talk about Abreu's "slider bat speed" here are the fangraphs pitch values:

 

[TABLE=width: 500]

[TABLE=width: 1024]

[TD=class: xl64, width: 64]Season

[TD=class: xl64, width: 64]Team[/TD]

[TD=class: xl65, width: 64]wFB[/TD]

[TD=class: xl65, width: 64]wSL[/TD]

[TD=class: xl65, width: 64]wCT[/TD]

[TD=class: xl65, width: 64]wCB[/TD]

[TD=class: xl65, width: 64]wCH[/TD]

[TD=class: xl65, width: 64]wSF[/TD]

[TD=class: xl65, width: 64]wKN[/TD]

[TD=class: xl65, width: 64]wFB/C[/TD]

[TD=class: xl65, width: 64]wSL/C[/TD]

[TD=class: xl65, width: 64]wCT/C[/TD]

[TD=class: xl65, width: 64]wCB/C[/TD]

[TD=class: xl65, width: 64]wCH/C[/TD]

[TD=class: xl65, width: 64]wSF/C[/TD]

[TD=class: xl65, width: 64]wKN/C[/TD]

[TD=class: xl66, width: 64, align: right]2014[/TD]

[TD=class: xl66, width: 64]White Sox[/TD]

[TD=class: xl67, width: 64]6[/TD]

[TD=class: xl67, width: 64]3.8[/TD]

[TD=class: xl67, width: 64][/TD]

[TD=class: xl67, width: 64]0.1[/TD]

[TD=class: xl67, width: 64]-2.8[/TD]

[TD=class: xl67, width: 64]-0.4[/TD]

[TD=class: xl67, width: 64][/TD]

[TD=class: xl67, width: 64]2.8[/TD]

[TD=class: xl67, width: 64]4.84[/TD]

[TD=class: xl67, width: 64][/TD]

[TD=class: xl67, width: 64]0.33[/TD]

[TD=class: xl67, width: 64]-4.72[/TD]

[TD=class: xl67, width: 64]-7.48[/TD]

[TD=class: xl67, width: 64][/TD]

[/TABLE]

[/TD]

[/TD]

[TD]

[/TABLE]

 

Seems to be handling fastballs ok too

[ashbury]

I re-read the title, and asked, "really? They finally found any in him?"

[Mike Sixel]

I just re-read the entire thread.....kind of a depressing read actually. very little actual discussion about Abreu......

 

oh, and.....

 

Inner half fastballs seem to tie him up some, but apparently not everyone can throw those consistently. I wish this thread had not come back.....it depresses me.

[twinsfan34]

I think he's greatly exceeded expectations (mine included).

 

Amazing how drastic the changeup to his fastball success is. Based on that...and his aforementioned struggles against inside heat (anything about 92-93 mph according to those scouts Crasnick mentioned) would wager he's probably guessing...to get around on those inside fastballs.

 

At least that seems to be what I see from someone doing SO WELL against fastballs and equally worse against changeups.

[twinsfan34]

Good post btw Willihammer.

[jokin]

Its still very early, but for all the talk about Abreu's "slider bat speed" here are the fangraphs pitch values:

 

[TABLE=width: 500]

[TABLE=width: 1024]

[TD=class: xl64, width: 64]Season

[TD=class: xl64, width: 64]Team[/TD]

[TD=class: xl65, width: 64]wFB[/TD]

[TD=class: xl65, width: 64]wSL[/TD]

[TD=class: xl65, width: 64]wCT[/TD]

[TD=class: xl65, width: 64]wCB[/TD]

[TD=class: xl65, width: 64]wCH[/TD]

[TD=class: xl65, width: 64]wSF[/TD]

[TD=class: xl65, width: 64]wKN[/TD]

[TD=class: xl65, width: 64]wFB/C[/TD]

[TD=class: xl65, width: 64]wSL/C[/TD]

[TD=class: xl65, width: 64]wCT/C[/TD]

[TD=class: xl65, width: 64]wCB/C[/TD]

[TD=class: xl65, width: 64]wCH/C[/TD]

[TD=class: xl65, width: 64]wSF/C[/TD]

[TD=class: xl65, width: 64]wKN/C[/TD]

[TD=class: xl66, width: 64, align: right]2014[/TD]

[TD=class: xl66, width: 64]White Sox[/TD]

[TD=class: xl67, width: 64]6[/TD]

[TD=class: xl67, width: 64]3.8[/TD]

[TD=class: xl67, width: 64][/TD]

[TD=class: xl67, width: 64]0.1[/TD]

[TD=class: xl67, width: 64]-2.8[/TD]

[TD=class: xl67, width: 64]-0.4[/TD]

[TD=class: xl67, width: 64][/TD]

[TD=class: xl67, width: 64]2.8[/TD]

[TD=class: xl67, width: 64]4.84[/TD]

[TD=class: xl67, width: 64][/TD]

[TD=class: xl67, width: 64]0.33[/TD]

[TD=class: xl67, width: 64]-4.72[/TD]

[TD=class: xl67, width: 64]-7.48[/TD]

[TD=class: xl67, width: 64][/TD]

[/TABLE]

[/TD]

[/TD]

[TD]

[/TABLE]

 

Seems to be handling fastballs ok too

 

It sounds like Oxtung's 4 scouts were clueless, or (more likely), there was an awful lot of sandbagging going on. I go with the latter, his comp numbers to current major league ex-cuban league players were too good. I posted that this one really hurt at the time of the White Sox signing. It still hurts, knowing you'd have him for the next 6 years batting right behind Sano.....

[jokin]

The White Sox are clearly campaigning for Abreu for ROY:

 

Abreu has said he isn’t a big fan of the cold April conditions, yet it’s hard to imagine him being even more productive when the summer finally arrives.

 

“He’s good,” White Sox manager Robin Ventura said. “I think he likes to hit with guys on base. I think the last few home games haven’t been ideal conditions. Even today is a little windy and cold, but he’s just a good hitter. When he hits it on the barrel, it can get out of any park. I don’t think it was necessarily carrying to left field but he has enough power to get it out of here.”

 

What has convinced the White Sox that Abreu will continue to flourish is his ability to make adjustments on the fly.

 

“He's up there with anybody in the league in being able to do that,” Ventura said. “I think his first go-around, pitchers probably have more of a report on him than he does of actually seeing pitchers. He's making adjustments and doing it between at-bats, between pitches. Everything has kind of been an adjustment for him. He just continues to impress.”

 

Scary how good he can become with more Cuban-like weather conditions, indeed.

 

http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/white-sox/post/_/id/19305/jose-abreus-achievements-multiplying-fast

 

 

(Check out the fan comments in reaction to the article, very rarely in the last few years do you see Sox fans this giddy)