July 16, 201313 yr Here's a quick rundown of a number of pitchers that were discussed (at least somewhat) as a FA possibility by fans. I only looked at IP and WAR b/c I'm lazy today. Contracts are also included. I don't think Greinke was a realistic possibility but he keeps coming up when I did these before, so I included him. Ranked by WAR. Sanchez Det 5/80m 92 ip, 2.5 WARLiriano Pit 1/1m* 77ip 2.5 WARSaunders Sea 1/6.5m 115ip, 1.7 WARVillanueva Cubs 2/10m 80ip, 1.4 WARCorreia Min 2/10m 111ip, 1.0 WARGreinke LAD 6/147m 85ip 1.0 WARDempster Bos 2/26.5m 110ip, 0.7 WARSlowey Miami 1/.75m 90 ip 0.7 WARLannan Phi 2.5m arbitration 53 ip 0.6 WARKazmir Cle 1/1m 86ip 0.4 WARPelfrey – Min 1/4m 83ip, -0.5 WARMcCarthy Ari 2/15.5m 67ip -0.6 WARJackson. Cubs 4/52m 100ip -0.7 WARMarcum Mets 1/4m 78ip -0.8 WARBlanton. LAA 2/15m 112ip, -0.9 WARHaren Nats 1/13m 93ip, -1.1 WARBaker Cubs 1/5.5m Has not played Villanueva and Slowey have both been moved to the bullpen. I'm not sure how much of their value is as a starter as opposed to a reliever. I think Villanueava had been pitching fairly well as a starter. Liriano had a injury clause in his contract so he's making a bit more than that and has an option for next year. Still, he's having a really nice season in the NL. Very few have stayed healthy all year. Edited July 16, 201313 yr by gunnarthor Forgot to add Marcum
July 16, 201313 yr It's been said quite a bit, there havn't been too many pitchers from last year's free agent class that have impressed. However, it seems like the arms that made us scratch our heads are the ones over-performing. Many of us wanted to target Edwin Jackson, he got "overpaid" and has underperformed, though he looks like the exception. Many thought Sanchez was "overpaid" yet he is thus far pitching great (when healthy). However other smaller "overpays" are looking like good (reasonable?) deals now as well. No one was happy about Correia but he has pitched better than expected, Liriano, Feldman and Villenueva were all looked at as Twins targets until they got "overpaid" as well.
July 16, 201313 yr I don't think the Twins passed on Liriano, Feldman and Villanueva because if salary.
July 16, 201313 yr Just for comparison, I hate WAR though: Correia: 110.2 IP 1.1 WARDeduno: 62.1 IP 1.1 WARWorley: 48.2 IP-1.3 WARPelfrey: 82.2 IP -0.5 WARDiamond: 91.1 IP -0.5 WARHernandez: 37.1 IP -0.2 WAR edit: updated WAR values Edited July 16, 201313 yr by Willihammer
July 16, 201313 yr We've talked about Sanchez ad nauseum. He's a shoulda, if he was willing. According to Liriano, we had a competitive offer, but he wanted to go to the NL. Not sure about the rest. Overall, it was just a really weak class.
July 16, 201313 yr We knew Liriano & Greinke would be great, they had ace written all over them. Marcum was hurt more than we knew.
July 16, 201313 yr What do we think about the FA starting pitching class for the upcoming offseason. Is it strong or weak?
July 16, 201313 yr What do we think about the FA starting pitching class for the upcoming offseason. Is it strong or weak? My take is no one as good as Sanchez or Greinke but more depth in the next tier relative to last offseason.
July 16, 201313 yr What are the names of the pitchers you think are worth the Twins going after? Ones that they should get.
July 16, 201313 yr Saunders was the pitcher the Twins offered more money but he went to Seattle. The Twins also made an offer to Liriano, but it is easy to understand why he would want a fresh start in the NL. The pitchers Ryan had sights on certainly are doing better than the ones I had hoped for in Baker, Jackson and Marcum.
July 16, 201313 yr We knew Liriano & Greinke would be great, they had ace written all over them. Marcum was hurt more than we knew.You knew Liriano would be great? He has ace written all over him? Do tell when did you think this? Liriano gave us no reason to resign him after his last year for us and in Chicago. I do not buy anyone saying we knew Liriano would be great. We all knew he had potential, but he was never consistent enough to give us the hope he once gave.
July 16, 201313 yr My take is no one as good as Sanchez or Greinke but more depth in the next tier relative to last offseason. Which means the prices are likely to be really absurd. The year after doesnt look much better. Let's get off the "there was no one good last year!" It was a pretty average year.
July 16, 201313 yr Not to mention every team gets $25MM in free money next year.....this year's salaries will look like bargains, I'd guess. Also shows that trading Willingham at his peak, or Perkins, or whomever, for younger pitching talent is the way to go. They don't have 5 guys close to MLB ready, let alone 7-8 of them to cover for issues. If they passon FA again next offseason (at least, big time FA), then this team could look a lot like does this year. Really, the only guy I see coming up early next year is Rosario. No one else looks like they will start with the MLB team next year that hasn't already been here. May and Meyer are likely in AAA next year to start the year. And, um, hmmmmmmm. So, if they don't do much in FA, next year looks like this year, I think. At least for the first couple of months. Good luck selling tickets next year.......
July 16, 201313 yr Wasn't last year supposed to be the deepest group of free agent pitchers in several years?
July 16, 201313 yr Let's get off the "there was no one good last year!" It was a pretty average year. I think this offseason should be a lesson to many about the dangers of building through free agency. Going into the offseason, it looked really strong in pitching.Near the end of the offseason, it still looked pretty good.In the beginning of the season, the luster started to wear off.Halfway through the season, it's starting to become hard to count the "busts" on your hands because you'll run out of fingers. The Twins could have done a better job this offseason. That is without a doubt in my mind. They didn't have to scrape the absolute bottom of the barrel. On the other hand, this should be a pretty good example of why Terry Ryan is a General Manager and we are not. Most of us would have spent far more and gotten far less in return. Maybe, just maybe, Terry isn't a dumb ol' hick stuck in the 1960s. We don't have to like all of his moves (I certainly don't) but we should at least acknowledge that the guy has a pretty good idea of what he's doing.
July 16, 201313 yr Wasn't last year supposed to be the deepest group of free agent pitchers in several years? Yes...but Hamels and Cain re-upped. Still was pretty decent. To your point Brock, that only matters if the future resources aren't wasted, which we've already talked about.
July 16, 201313 yr What do we think about the FA starting pitching class for the upcoming offseason. Is it strong or weak? Bronson Arroyo (37)Scott Baker (32)Erik Bedard (35)A.J. Burnett (37)Chris Capuano (35) - $8MM mutual option with a $1MM buyoutChris Carpenter (39)Bruce Chen (37)Bartolo Colon (41)Aaron Cook (35)Jorge De La Rosa (33)Scott Feldman (30)Gavin Floyd (31)Jeff Francis (33)Freddy Garcia (37)Jon Garland (34)Matt Garza (30)Roy Halladay (37) - $20MM vesting optionJason Hammel (31)Aaron Harang (36) - $7MM+ mutual option with a $2MM buyoutDan Haren (33)Roberto Hernandez (33)Tim Hudson (38)Phil Hughes (28)Ubaldo Jimenez (30) - may void $8MM option for 2014Josh Johnson (30)Jeff Karstens (31)Scott Kazmir (30)Hiroki Kuroda (39)Jon Lester (30) - $13MM club option with a $250K buyoutColby Lewis (34)Ted Lilly (38)Tim Lincecum (30)Paul Maholm (32)Shaun Marcum (32)Jason Marquis (35)Ricky Nolasco (31)Roy Oswalt (35)Mike Pelfrey (30)Andy Pettitte (42)Wandy Rodriguez (35) - $13MM club option with a $2.5MM buyoutJonathan Sanchez (31)Ervin Santana (31)Johan Santana (34) - $25MM club option with a $5.5MM buyoutJoe Saunders (33) - mutual optionJames Shields (32) - $12MM club option with a $1MM buyoutJason Vargas (31) Ryan Vogelsong (36) - $6.5MM club option with a $300K buyoutEdinson Volquez (30)Tsuyoshi Wada (33) - $5MM club optionJake Westbrook (36) -- $9.5MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout.Chien-Ming Wang (34)Suk-min Yoon (27)Chris Young (35)Barry Zito (36) - $18MM vesting option with a $7MM buyout
July 16, 201313 yr Bronson Arroyo (37)Scott Baker (32)Erik Bedard (35)A.J. Burnett (37)Chris Capuano (35) - $8MM mutual option with a $1MM buyoutChris Carpenter (39)Bruce Chen (37)Bartolo Colon (41)Aaron Cook (35)Jorge De La Rosa (33)Scott Feldman (30)Gavin Floyd (31)Jeff Francis (33)Freddy Garcia (37)Jon Garland (34)Matt Garza (30)Roy Halladay (37) - $20MM vesting optionJason Hammel (31)Aaron Harang (36) - $7MM+ mutual option with a $2MM buyoutDan Haren (33)Roberto Hernandez (33)Tim Hudson (38)Phil Hughes (28)Ubaldo Jimenez (30) - may void $8MM option for 2014Josh Johnson (30)Jeff Karstens (31)Scott Kazmir (30)Hiroki Kuroda (39)Jon Lester (30) - $13MM club option with a $250K buyoutColby Lewis (34)Ted Lilly (38)Tim Lincecum (30)Paul Maholm (32)Shaun Marcum (32)Jason Marquis (35)Ricky Nolasco (31)Roy Oswalt (35)Mike Pelfrey (30)Andy Pettitte (42)Wandy Rodriguez (35) - $13MM club option with a $2.5MM buyoutJonathan Sanchez (31)Ervin Santana (31)Johan Santana (34) - $25MM club option with a $5.5MM buyoutJoe Saunders (33) - mutual optionJames Shields (32) - $12MM club option with a $1MM buyoutJason Vargas (31) Ryan Vogelsong (36) - $6.5MM club option with a $300K buyoutEdinson Volquez (30)Tsuyoshi Wada (33) - $5MM club optionJake Westbrook (36) -- $9.5MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout.Chien-Ming Wang (34)Suk-min Yoon (27)Chris Young (35)Barry Zito (36) - $18MM vesting option with a $7MM buyout Thanks. Saved me the trouble. There are some good names there. No aces, per se. But a lot of solid mid-rotation guys. My sense is it is much deeper than 2012. Between Santana, Garza and Hughes, the Twins could have a shot at a guy who would be a number 3 on most teams but would be our ace.
July 16, 201313 yr To your point Brock, that only matters if the future resources aren't wasted, which we've already talked about. Pretty much.
July 16, 201313 yr Which means the prices are likely to be really absurd. The year after doesnt look much better. Let's get off the "there was no one good last year!" It was a pretty average year. Yes on high prices but teams arw still relatively savvy. The price on mediocrity won't explode but it will high. And when Correia is the fifth best guy it is a weak class.
July 16, 201313 yr Bronson Arroyo (37)Scott Baker (32)Erik Bedard (35)A.J. Burnett (37)Chris Capuano (35) - $8MM mutual option with a $1MM buyoutChris Carpenter (39)Bruce Chen (37)Bartolo Colon (41)Aaron Cook (35)Jorge De La Rosa (33)Scott Feldman (30)Gavin Floyd (31)Jeff Francis (33)Freddy Garcia (37)Jon Garland (34)Matt Garza (30)Roy Halladay (37) - $20MM vesting optionJason Hammel (31)Aaron Harang (36) - $7MM+ mutual option with a $2MM buyoutDan Haren (33)Roberto Hernandez (33)Tim Hudson (38)Phil Hughes (28)Ubaldo Jimenez (30) - may void $8MM option for 2014Josh Johnson (30)Jeff Karstens (31)Scott Kazmir (30)Hiroki Kuroda (39)Jon Lester (30) - $13MM club option with a $250K buyoutColby Lewis (34)Ted Lilly (38)Tim Lincecum (30)Paul Maholm (32)Shaun Marcum (32)Jason Marquis (35)Ricky Nolasco (31)Roy Oswalt (35)Mike Pelfrey (30)Andy Pettitte (42)Wandy Rodriguez (35) - $13MM club option with a $2.5MM buyoutJonathan Sanchez (31)Ervin Santana (31)Johan Santana (34) - $25MM club option with a $5.5MM buyoutJoe Saunders (33) - mutual optionJames Shields (32) - $12MM club option with a $1MM buyoutJason Vargas (31) Ryan Vogelsong (36) - $6.5MM club option with a $300K buyoutEdinson Volquez (30)Tsuyoshi Wada (33) - $5MM club optionJake Westbrook (36) -- $9.5MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout.Chien-Ming Wang (34)Suk-min Yoon (27)Chris Young (35)Barry Zito (36) - $18MM vesting option with a $7MM buyout I appreciate the list, it's informative, but I was asking drjim's opinion of the class and maybe a list of pitchers he thinks the Twins should target.
July 16, 201313 yr The thing that jumps out at me, there were 2 names under 30 on that list, one of whom (Suk-min Yoon) I had honestly never heard of before. Such a crapshoot, free agency. You have to do it, but getting it right is an adventure.
July 16, 201313 yr Yes on high prices but teams arw still relatively savvy. The price on mediocrity won't explode but it will high. And when Correia is the fifth best guy it is a weak class. And next year if the results come back with Jon Garland as the fifth best with his performance is tht how you will choose to judge it? That seems odd.
July 16, 201313 yr The thing that jumps out at me, there were 2 names under 30 on that list, one of whom (Suk-min Yoon) I had honestly never heard of before. Such a crapshoot, free agency. You have to do it, but getting it right is an adventure. Most free agents are close to if not 30 or over. Most players don't hit the big till they are 24, 25. 6 years of team control...
July 16, 201313 yr Looking at that list I wonder if Hiroki Kuroda would be signable next year...Of course, the Yanks will sign him for $20M a year. Hopefully we can find a #3-4 starter in this FA class.
July 16, 201313 yr And next year if the results come back with Jon Garland as the fifth best with his performance is tht how you will choose to judge it? That seems odd. I'm pulling for Ryan to get both Garland and Pettitte next season. Proven winners.
July 16, 201313 yr I appreciate the list, it's informative, but I was asking drjim's opinion of the class and maybe a list of pitchers he thinks the Twins should target. I like Hughes and Johnson. There are some options in that tier.
July 16, 201313 yr They can sign any of those guys to a one year contract. It isn't the time to go multiple years only to have that guy injured when the team is ready to compete. There are a lot of innings and injuries on those arms.
July 16, 201313 yr I like Hughes and Johnson. There are some options in that tier. Just those two? Not Lincecum or Nolasco or Vargas?
July 16, 201313 yr They can sign any of those guys to a one year contract. It isn't the time to go multiple years only to have that guy injured when the team is ready to compete. There are a lot of innings and injuries on those arms. When will this team be ready to compete? Wouldn't getting quality pitching accelerate that time frame.
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