Article: Trading Perkins Makes Too Much Sense

[twinstalker]

I'll throw something out there:

 

Archie Bradley and Chris Owings from Arizona for Doumit and Perkins.

 

Maybe a bit unrealistic, but I'd jump all over it.

 

Well, yeah, but realistically the only way the Twins get Bradley is to give them Mauer and pay for his salary*...and I'm not exaggerating. He's a franchise pitcher.

 

 

*I'm not saying this is necessarily a bad idea.

[TheLeviathan]

Well, yeah, but realistically the only way the Twins get Bradley is to give them Mauer and pay for his salary*...and I'm not exaggerating. He's a franchise pitcher.

 

 

*I'm not saying this is necessarily a bad idea.

 

Maybe, but Bauer was talked about the same way. In any case, I think that is the kind of deal I shop for if I am Ryan. High demand can do crazy things to prices.

[Brad Swanson]

Maybe, but Bauer was talked about the same way. In any case, I think that is the kind of deal I shop for if I am Ryan. High demand can do crazy things to prices.

 

How gritty is Perkins? If gritty enough, the Diamondbacks might be interested.

 

Also, I agree with others who have argued that closers are not valuable. In fact, if I was in charge of a bad team, I'd basically turn my "closer" spot into an ever-changing Academy of New Closers®. Once a pitcher proved their worth as a closer, I'd trade him at the blink of an eye. Sure, it would lead to a gaggle of blown saves and sadness at times, but think of the value that these new closers could return.

[ThePuck]

Well, yeah, but realistically the only way the Twins get Bradley is to give them Mauer and pay for his salary*...and I'm not exaggerating. He's a franchise pitcher.

 

 

*I'm not saying this is necessarily a bad idea.

 

Yeah, no. If Ryan made a trade like that, all evidence of him every being GM would be wiped from the Twins records and he'd be a punching bag from sport commentators for years. For good reason.

[Vervehound]

I'll throw something out there:

 

Archie Bradley and Chris Owings from Arizona for Doumit and Perkins.

 

Maybe a bit unrealistic, but I'd jump all over it.

 

 

i was going to post that chris owings should be a prime target of the twins - the dbacks have redundancy at short and perkins would be a great improvement over bell.

 

as for bradley....he's the best pitching prospect in baseball and the dbacks would be nuts to consider trading him for a closer.

[snepp]

Yeah, pretty much all of this.

 

Will it be hard to find a pitcher as good as Perkins? Probably. Given the ridiculous constraints put on closers by managers, do you need a pitcher as good as Perkins? Absolutely not.

 

Well, they could dump the entire ridiculousness of rigid roles and actually pitch him more often when it matters, rather than facing half of his hitters in low leverage situations.

[TheLeviathan]

i was going to post that chris owings should be a prime target of the twins - the dbacks have redundancy at short and perkins would be a great improvement over bell.

 

as for bradley....he's the best pitching prospect in baseball and the dbacks would be nuts to consider trading him for a closer.

 

I started with Owings but the problem with Arizona is a real lack of interesting pitching specs after Skaggs/Bradley. (Who are likely too highly rated) Have any better suggestions?

[beckmt]

Doesn't Boston have a SS in waiting at AAA? Do not want to see Perkins go, but desperate time could make for a good deal for the Twins. Outside out that what about the Arizona guy that they got from Cinn. Send Florimon or Escobar with Perkins and get back another A type pitcher with an upside. Doubt Arizona will do that, but the Dodgers are coming. One other note maybe Ethier for Perkins. At least a thought.

[Dilligaf69]

Maybe this is just denial, but with several years left on his contract he should still be cheap and dominant in a couple years when, with any luck, the Twins have completed their rebuild, at which point he's quite useful.

 

Agree..and I'm not sure his value is that big to a team unless they desperately need a closer...

[Jham]

First post guys. Love the blog.

 

As 1 thought slightly outside the box that I'm sure I will get hammered on...

 

If the Twins are not blown away by an offer for Perkins who is an All-Star closer in the prime of his career with new-found velocity and a swing-and-miss slider, I think the Twins should strongly consider stretching him out with the intention of adding him to the rotation next season.

 

Note, Perkins has been ok as a starter in the past. Many have suggested that the move to the pen caused his success rather than coincided with his success. I know he has suggested he likes pitching from the pen as it keeps him engaged and focused.

 

However there are other potential factors to his success other than a change in role. 1) would have to check the program guide, but Perkins looks to be in better shape than he used to. I think he's shed some baby weight. 2) He seems to have scapped the slow curve for a hard slider, perhaps his best pitch, particularly against righties. 3) Simple maturity, he's past the me-first attitude that held him back in prior stints.

 

In somewhat recent past, pitchers such as Smoltz, Schilling, David Price, Adam Wainwright, and Chris Sale have successfully moved from Starter to Pen back to Starter. Perkins would be an absolute steal at $3 mil and change/season. We could actually utilize our best pitcher. His trade value would go up if successful, or he could lead a young staff next year as a potential ace. He'd make the product more watchable the rest of the season. And we can always move him back to closing if he proves less effective starting.

 

Finally, no chance Perkins bought supplements from Biogenesis right?

[Dilligaf69]

It would have to be a pretty big deal for me to think it's a good idea. Normally, I'm all about flipping closers for prospects/every day help, but Perkins is actually on a contract that is a good one for a solid relief guy and is excellent for an elite one. Moreover, he's on that contract through the 2016 season.

 

Unless the Twins are overwhelmed by an offer, I don't see the urgency to sell high on him. It's doubtful anyone would be willing to give up a quality starting pitcher unless they're still an A-ball roll of the dice, which I might be interested in if Perk was going into the last year of his deal, but less than enthusiastic about with 3 years left.

 

The Twins would need to be getting a shortstop who is MLB-ready or a starting pitcher who is also close to really consider this.

 

Again I agree but i don't see the Twins getting that much in return

[Guest USAFChief]

Sorry Dave T, completely disagree. Good closers are NOT hard to find. Joe Nathan was a failed starter (mediocre player) and the Twins converted him to a closer. Eddie Guardado, failed starter. Glen Perkins, failed starter. We have plenty of these type of guys in the system that can be converted to closers. Jason Wheeler or Hudson Boyd are guys I could see eventually fitting that mold. Plus, we have Michael Tonkin and AJ Achter waiting for their opportunity as closers. Not even counting guys in the low minors such as Mason Melotakis, Zach Jones, Tyler Duffey, Brandon Peterson etc. that all used to be closers in college. Closers hard to find? not at all in my opinion. What's hard to find is a top-end starting pitcher. And if we can get one by trading a closer like Perkins, you MUST do it.

If good relief pitchers are so easy to find why are so many posters convinced Ryan can get a big haul for him? Why wouldn't all these other GMs just install a failed started and keep their prospects?

[twinstalker]

Finally, no chance Perkins bought supplements from Biogenesis right?

No, but the thought has crossed my mind that Plouffe works out with Braun in the offseasons.

[Otto von Ballpark]

If good relief pitchers are so easy to find why are so many posters convinced Ryan can get a big haul for him? Why wouldn't all these other GMs just install a failed started and keep their prospects?

 

I don't know if folks here are convinced he WILL get a big haul, but if a big haul is available, they'd want TR to take it.

[twinstalker]

How rare is Perkins? It's really a subject that could be debated quite a bit, with ample evidence for the positions of very rare and not so rare. The obvious problem teams have is that the guy they give the role to doesn't have much room for error, so finding someone with both the success and matching peripherals that predict future success lends to a real comfort level that at important times (like the playoffs) the end of your bullpen won't implode. That's worth a lot, and it's why Perkins' value is higher now than it would be in the offseason when team think they might be able to develop their own successful closer (like Rondon in Detroit).

[Otto von Ballpark]

Those are the best returns for relievers moved midseason in the last three years. Perkins merits the top end of those deals.

 

I think using Perkins' contract status (3.5 cheap years remaining) would be a better way to find comps, rather than the time of year he's getting dealt.

 

Now, it's quite likely that there are far fewer guys of Perkins quality and contract getting traded, and that suggests that teams aren't willing to give up good value for them. So we basically agree. But most other deadline deals aren't good direct comparables, because Perkins is more of a long-term acquisition (which is why I think he could just as well be dealt in the offseason).

[Brad Swanson]

If good relief pitchers are so easy to find why are so many posters convinced Ryan can get a big haul for him? Why wouldn't all these other GMs just install a failed started and keep their prospects?

 

I'm not sure it's as easy to find a good relief pitcher as some posit (me included), but I think it is easy to develop a good relief pitcher. However, that takes time. If a team is contending in July and needs a late-inning reliever, I can understand why they might trade for one. There's not enough time to develop a new reliever, so pounce on one that another team has developed already. Conversely, if a bad team has a good reliever, I can see why they would trade that good pitcher to get back something different and perhaps more valuable in the long run.

[pab]

Perkins will still be cheap and in his prime when the wave of talent is up and ready. Unless they can get a huge haul for him, that has more value than a A-ball prospect that won't be ready yet in '15.

[cmb0252]

I'll throw something out there:

 

Archie Bradley and Chris Owings from Arizona for Doumit and Perkins.

 

Maybe a bit unrealistic, but I'd jump all over it.

 

While we are at it why don't we throw in Duensing so they will throw in Skaggs? I don't know who coined it on here, have seen it posted several times, but calling fan trades where they add in extra pieces to justify asking for the moon the Duensing rule is brilliant. As fans we naturally over value our own players but you have to look at both sides.

 

The Dbacks have already come out and said they won't be trading either Bradley (best pitching prospect in baseball) or Skaggs. If those are the main guys you want from the DBacks you are going to be disappointed. I believe Perkins can bring a great package but I think my idea package is different from most of you here.

[Vervehound]

I started with Owings but the problem with Arizona is a real lack of interesting pitching specs after Skaggs/Bradley. (Who are likely too highly rated) Have any better suggestions?

 

skaggs is still rich, but it doesn't hurt to ask. i'd have to have one of holmberg or chafin back along with owings to make me pull the trigger. that'd be a decent haul made better by matching up need for need.

[Vervehound]

Doesn't Boston have a SS in waiting at AAA? Do not want to see Perkins go, but desperate time could make for a good deal for the Twins. Outside out that what about the Arizona guy that they got from Cinn. Send Florimon or Escobar with Perkins and get back another A type pitcher with an upside. Doubt Arizona will do that, but the Dodgers are coming. One other note maybe Ethier for Perkins. At least a thought.

 

bogaerts? lol, if he was on the table that'd be a no brainer. he'd fit in pretty nicely in between buxton and sano in our epic future line-up.

[Nick Nelson]

If the Twins are not blown away by an offer for Perkins who is an All-Star closer in the prime of his career with new-found velocity and a swing-and-miss slider, I think the Twins should strongly consider stretching him out with the intention of adding him to the rotation next season.

I actually asked him about this on Twitter a while back, because I'm so irritated by how little usage he gets and was curious to know if he thought better health + gained knowledge might lead to better results as a starter.

 

His response was pretty blunt: "Didn't work last time, why would it now?"

[Kwak]

Ryan is in a pickle with respect to trading Perkins. He must "be blown away" with the offer else it is an admission that the Twins aren't close to contending--despite the sweet words otherwise. Said "blown away offer" must not only be accepted by the Twins faithful--those guys have to perform at said "blown away level" Finally, the next closer had better succeed and definately not be the reason why the team's performance didn't match expectations. More risk there than signing a free agent who only costs money.

[jay]

I think using Perkins' contract status (3.5 cheap years remaining) would be a better way to find comps, rather than the time of year he's getting dealt.

 

Now, it's quite likely that there are far fewer guys of Perkins quality and contract getting traded, and that suggests that teams aren't willing to give up good value for them. So we basically agree. But most other deadline deals aren't good direct comparables, because Perkins is more of a long-term acquisition (which is why I think he could just as well be dealt in the offseason).

 

Yes, this. We can't try to use comps that were only under contract for less than a half season when Glen's situation is much different.

 

It might seem counter-intuitive to think that Perkins could bring back more than Greinke did, but it's completely accurate. 3+ years of a top closer at far below market rate salaries is worth just as much and more than two months of Zach Greinke.

 

However, those 3+ years are exactly why they shouldn't trade Perk. Everyone here expects us to contend long before then. If we don't, we'll have much larger failures to worry about than whether or not we maximized Glen's trade value 2-3 years ago.

[TheLeviathan]

I don't know who coined it on here, have seen it posted several times, but calling fan trades where they add in extra pieces to justify asking for the moon the Duensing rule is brilliant.

 

Um, I did back on BYTO.

 

The talk here is of a Top50 spec, by BA's rankings, Bradley and Skags are the only candidates on Arizona. I also clearly said it was unrealistic, but that's the kind of offer I'd be aggressively shopping for.

 

If you had told me Didi Gregarious could land Trevor Bauer I'd have also called you crazy. Arizona appears to be our most ideal fit, maybe Verve is right that Holmberg is the more appropiate guy to pair with the SS, but I'd sure be asking about Bradley.

 

The whole point here is to shop and see if you get blown away, not deal him for a pile of middling guys.

[TheLeviathan]

skaggs is still rich, but it doesn't hurt to ask. i'd have to have one of holmberg or chafin back along with owings to make me pull the trigger. that'd be a decent haul made better by matching up need for need.

 

I don't like Chafin - too "twins pitcher"ish to me. I could live with Holmberg, but I'm not blown away by that package. I'd need more I think.

[ThePuck]

Ryan is in a pickle with respect to trading Perkins. He must "be blown away" with the offer else it is an admission that the Twins aren't close to contending--despite the sweet words otherwise. Said "blown away offer" must not only be accepted by the Twins faithful--those guys have to perform at said "blown away level" Finally, the next closer had better succeed and definately not be the reason why the team's performance didn't match expectations. More risk there than signing a free agent who only costs money.

 

I doubt he cares what the Twins faithful think in regards to the moves he makes, to be perfectly blunt. Like Gardy and his in-game strategic moves, whether they work or not, they are the right call in his eyes and goodness forbid you question him. He's torn more than one reporter up for daring to questions him.

 

And, of course, our announcers will set the fans straight if the complaints are too loud and public, let us know we mere mortals don't know anything.

[cmathewson]

Because of all the intangibles, I think they will need to be blown away to trade him. But if they are blown away, they should trade him. I would start with Brock's proposal and add that the top 50 pitcher needs to be in AA or higher. He needs to be someone who could pitch in the majors next year.

[Monkeypaws]

Ryan can just sit on this situation; he'll know if he's blown away.

 

It's up to the other GMs to do it, and you never know how fool crazy they get as the deadline approaches.

 

If there ends up being a bidding war, and someone coughs up a top 20 prospect, well, hard to say no.

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

You have to get an above average return or no deal. If any trade is a little bit iffy, the answer should be no.