2013 Trade Deadline

[Mr. Brooks]

Thatcher has been nearly lights out this year, while Duensing has struggled most of the year. He has been significantly better this year!

 

I get that we all want to see a trade that will help us in the future, but we need to be semi-realistic. We have a lot of junk on this team, and teams in the race are not chomping at the bit for our guys.

 

I'd chalk most of that up to small sample size (the life of a relief pitcher), and some bad luck on Duensing's part.

Duensing has given up a babip of .378 this year (60 pts higher than his career norm), which includes an absurdly fluke .415 babip to left handed hitters (which further inflates his numbers because he faces more lefties than righties), while Thatcher has given up a babip of .298 (11 pts lower than his career norm).

They have FIP's that are pretty close (thatcher's is about 0.40 better), and IMO are pretty similar pitchers.

Of course the only thing that matters is what Kevin Towers thinks, and neither of us know how he views them.

[nicksaviking]

Willingham was the obvious asset to move last year. His value was never going to be higher.

Perkins is the obvious asset this year.

 

On Morneau, I've heard that the O's offered a couple of C level lottery tickets if we ate his entire salary, but Ryan declined to do so.

 

This just proves how unbelievably cheap Terry Ryan is. The team is already $30 million under the supposed approved payroll, I don't understand what difference it makes to us if we eat the salary or not?

 

I would have moved Willingham last year too, but that's assuming a good deal was in place. I'd also move Perkins this year, but sounds like he and Mauer are out of the question. This team has a half dozen vets that in all rights should be perfect trade fodder, only they either are playing like dogs are are hurt and playing like dogs.

 

I was gung-ho for moving Perkins early on, but considering Jose Veras didn't bring the Astros very much in return I'm skeptical. Perkins should bring back more but perhaps other clubs don't want to give up more and would prefer lesser closers in order to give up lesser prospects. Personally, I wouldn't want the Twins to give up a top 50 prospect for a closer when I could give up a guy in the 150 range for a lesser closer who still gets the job done.

 

But yes, Ryan should be more than willing to eat Morneau's salary if he can get anything with upside that does not require a 40-man-roster seat.

[jay]

Of course the only thing that matters is what Kevin Towers thinks, and neither of us know how he views them.

 

This is very true. Given that Thatcher has faced Arizona 7 times this year alone, I'm assuming ol crazy Kevin has a good idea of how he views him. The results would lead me to think he'd probably favor Thatcher.

 

2013 vs ARI - 7 appearances, 5 IP, 3 hits allowed, 0 BB, 4 Ks, .188 BAA., .219 OPS against.

[LaBombo]

Thanks to that godawful popup, I will not be purchasing Blue Moon if it's the last beer on Earth.

[B Richard]

Thanks to that godawful popup, I will not be purchasing Blue Moon if it's the last beer on Earth.

 

Having issues with that ad too.

[Mr. Brooks]

I would have moved Willingham last year too, but that's assuming a good deal was in place. I'd also move Perkins this year, but sounds like he and Mauer are out of the question. This team has a half dozen vets that in all rights should be perfect trade fodder, only they either are playing like dogs are are hurt and playing like dogs.

 

I was gung-ho for moving Perkins early on, but considering Jose Veras didn't bring the Astros very much in return I'm skeptical. Perkins should bring back more but perhaps other clubs don't want to give up more and would prefer lesser closers in order to give up lesser prospects. Personally, I wouldn't want the Twins to give up a top 50 prospect for a closer when I could give up a guy in the 150 range for a lesser closer who still gets the job done.

 

But yes, Ryan should be more than willing to eat Morneau's salary if he can get anything with upside that does not require a 40-man-roster seat.

 

IMO, thinking a relief pitcher (any relief pitcher) should get you a top 50 prospect is way too high of expectations.

I don't get the reluctance of wanting to trade Perkins, at all. He is a relief pitcher. Even the very best have a tiny impact on the season as a whole.

The Twins probably have at least a half dozen pitchers in their system who could be converted into a good enough closer by the time we are going to actually need one.

I wouldn't even need a top 100 prospect to move Perkins.

Get back a couple of prospects who have a chance to someday be in the starting 9 (or starting 5 of a rotation), and it would be a great trade to me. Hope one of them hits, if not, you haven't lost much, you plug in the next guy who comes out from nowhere to be a good closer (like Guardado, and Nathan, and Perkins, etc.) and you are no worse for the wear.

Tell me what good an "elite" closer does to a 90 loss team? To me, stubbornly demanding that you have to get "fair market return" for him, or nothing at all is akin to a man losing his job and his home, finding himself on the street with no money, but refusing to sell his luxury car for 80% of it's "market value".

This team has MUCH, MUCH bigger needs than a relief pitcher, regardless of how good he is.

[Mr. Brooks]

This is very true. Given that Thatcher has faced Arizona 7 times this year alone, I'm assuming ol crazy Kevin has a good idea of how he views him. The results would lead me to think he'd probably favor Thatcher.

 

2013 vs ARI - 7 appearances, 5 IP, 3 hits allowed, 0 BB, 4 Ks, .188 BAA., .219 OPS against.

 

That's kind of my point about relief pitchers. You are talking about a sample size of 5 innings pitched.

I don't know much about Kevin Towers, but I would hope, as an MLB GM, he is smart enough to not put much, if any, stock into a 5 IP sample size. That is not even 1 entire start (unless you are a Twins pitcher) for a starting pitcher.

[rickyriolo]

Very happy the Twins did not trade any of our players at the deadline. Now we can continue on our path to +90 losses and secure a high draft pick for next year.

[James]

Thanks to that godawful popup, I will not be purchasing Blue Moon if it's the last beer on Earth.

I didn't need that ad to convince not buy Blue Moon ever again. I had already made that decision long ago.

[ThePuck]

Very happy the Twins did not trade any of our players at the deadline. Now we can continue on our path to +90 losses and secure a high draft pick for next year.

 

We have a worse record now after 103 games than we did in 2011 when we lost 99 games.

We are better than we were last year after 103 games...by one game...

It's a mirage that this season is going better than our last two....

[nicksaviking]

Very happy the Twins did not trade any of our players at the deadline. Now we can continue on our path to +90 losses and secure a high draft pick for next year.

 

Yes but if they traded their better veterans, would they not be on the path to an even higher draft pick?

[stringer bell]

I haven't seen the official word, but I assume that since it is past 3 and Twitter would instantly inform us of any trades, that the Twins didn't make any moves. Further, Terry Ryan will remind us that waiver trades can be made through the month of August. Whooppeeeee. This is a comparatively untalented and old roster that needed to be shaken up. It didn't happen. It is a waste of time to see Morneau flail to his .720 OPS and see Ryan Doumit be a bad defensive catcher and a worse outfielder. I'll cut Caraballo some slack, but we've already seen way too much of Doug Bernier and Clete Thomas and Mastro and Ramirez are getting ready. I also haven't touched the pitching staff fulls of has-been and never-will-be's. The Twins can't win with these guys and never will. There is absolutely no point in keeping half of the players around.

[nicksaviking]

We have a worse record now after 103 games than we did in 2011 when we lost 99 games.

We are better than we were last year after 103 games...by one game...

It's a mirage that this season is going better than our last two....

 

"This has got to be the worst mirage ever!"

 

-Twins fan dying in the desert.

[nicksaviking]

I haven't seen the official word, but I assume that since it is past 3 and Twitter would instantly inform us of any trades, that the Twins didn't make any moves. Further, Terry Ryan will remind us that waiver trades can be made through the month of August. Whooppeeeee. This is a comparatively untalented and old roster that needed to be shaken up. It didn't happen. It is a waste of time to see Morneau flail to his .720 OPS and see Ryan Doumit be a bad defensive catcher and a worse outfielder. I'll cut Caraballo some slack, but we've already seen way too much of Doug Bernier and Clete Thomas and Mastro and Ramirez are getting ready. I also haven't touched the pitching staff fulls of has-been and never-will-be's. The Twins can't win with these guys and never will. There is absolutely no point in keeping half of the players around.

 

Yeah, there are several vets that if claimed off waivers, I'd give away at the very least to open up a spot for a youngster.

[jay]

Stark reporting that the Dodgers acquired Drew FREAKIN Butera!

 

This alone should be enough to make many a folk here rejoice upon rejoicing.

[LaBombo]

Annoying Blue Moon "Behind the Craft" ad to the Strib sports page for a Popup to Be Named Later. Get it done.

[drjim]

Willingham was the obvious asset to move last year. His value was never going to be higher.

Perkins is the obvious asset this year.

 

On Morneau, I've heard that the O's offered a couple of C level lottery tickets if we ate his entire salary, but Ryan declined to do so.

 

This just proves how unbelievably cheap Terry Ryan is. The team is already $30 million under the supposed approved payroll, I don't understand what difference it makes to us if we eat the salary or not?

 

Willingham's value was never that high no matter what people continue to believe. Certainly not higher than Revere or Span returns.

 

What was your source? And even if this "source" is correct what does that return even mean? Perhaps that was the bigger sticking point than money. Why eat money and give Morneau away for nothing? They can do that in August just as easily.

[Willihammer]

I fully expect Willingham, if healthy, to resume being the 1st-2nd most productive hitter in this pathetic lineup after he returns. The Twins can trade him next deadline if they want to, for probably not a lot less than whatever he was worth in 2012. I just don't think teams value 2+ year encumberances even if they appear to us as bargains, more than rentals.

[Mr. Brooks]

Willingham's value was never that high no matter what people continue to believe. Certainly not higher than Revere or Span returns.

 

What was your source? And even if this "source" is correct what does that return even mean? Perhaps that was the bigger sticking point than money. Why eat money and give Morneau away for nothing? They can do that in August just as easily.

 

Regardless of how much value Willingham did or did not have, he had plenty of interest last season, both at the deadline and in the offseason. HIS value was as high as it was ever going to be, I said nothing of his value relative to Span or Revere or anyone else, I'm saying that HIS value was at its peak, whatever that was.

They could have gotten something for him, he is not going to be a part of this team the next time it competes for anything.

As it stands now, there is a chance he will play out his 3 year contract, on 3 90 loss teams, then leave for nothing.

Sure, he could have a bounce back season next year, but it will not be on par with his 2012 season.

Not trading him last year just proves, to me, that Terry Ryan did actually believe the stuff he was saying about how he thought he was putting a competitive team on the field this year. In my mind there is no other reason why you would pass on trading a player who won't be around past 2014 (when we'll still be terrible), for one or two who would have a chance to be part of the rebuild.

[Mr. Brooks]

I fully expect Willingham, if healthy, to resume being the 1st-2nd most productive hitter in this pathetic lineup after he returns. The Twins can trade him next deadline if they want to, for probably not a lot less than whatever he was worth in 2012. I just don't think teams value 2+ year encumberances even if they appear to us as bargains, more than rentals.

 

I disagree. Would Span have netted us Meyer if he was just a deadline rental? The team friendly contract was part of what made Willingham, and Span, an attractive target.

2012 was by far a career year for Willingham.

I don't doubt that he can come back healthy and have a productive season next year.

But,

A) He's battled health problems on and off throughout his career. It's no guarantee he stays healthy next year.

It's unlikely he puts up 2012 numbers ever again.

 

I just didn't see a reason for risking him getting hurt and/or falling back to earth statistically.

Perhaps there was not nearly the interest in him last year that the national and local media claimed there was (and even Terry Ryan said there was a lot of interest), but everything I have read and heard suggests we could have gotten a pretty good return for him.

 

As it stands now, there is the CHANCE that next year doesn't go well either, and we end up getting nothing for him. For an older player that won't be around next time we are competitive, I don't see the payoff in taking that risk.

[Willihammer]

I disagree. Would Span have netted us Meyer if he was just a deadline rental?

Maybe, yeah. The As gave up AJ Cole to get a year of John Jaso. Look at how the GArza trade compares to Peavy's, and some of the other deals, from where I'm standing, teams are as much interested in shedding payroll as they are in acquiring talent.

 

edit: I take that back. Jaso's under team control through 2015. My mistake.

 

I guess my point is, you compare this summer's trades where guys with multi-year, xx-million commitments are moved to the guys who are finishing out a cheap contract, and the returns generally skew in favor of the cheaper contracts. This has been my impression so far at least.

[cmb0252]

A tweet from Darren Wolfson shows exactly why Ryan never gets anything done at the trade deadline:

 

Ryan admitted he only started making a lot of calls in the last 24-48 hours. He's more a phone call taker. Should've changed this year.

[rickyriolo]

We have a worse record now after 103 games than we did in 2011 when we lost 99 games.

We are better than we were last year after 103 games...by one game...

It's a mirage that this season is going better than our last two....

The Twins are never going to get better without starting pitching. TR won't sign any top tier free agents, so the only way to get better starters is with higher draft picks(i.e. Kohl Stewart) Nobody wants our "crappy" veterans...I see it so I am sure the other 29 gm's see it as well

[Einstein]

A tweet from Darren Wolfson shows exactly why Ryan never gets anything done at the trade deadline:

 

Ryan admitted he only started making a lot of calls in the last 24-48 hours. He's more a phone call taker. Should've changed this year.

Yet another example of TR leaving no stone unturned in his quest to improve the team. Or not.

[diehardtwinsfan]

MLBTR caught both of these nuggets but did not draw the obvious correlation that the Royals were possibly scouting Brian Dozier.

[/quote

 

Well, Dozier's bat would fit in pretty well with the rest of the Royals' lineup.

 

I really wish we had matched up better with the Royals... They've made another questionable trade today.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Stark reporting that the Dodgers acquired Drew FREAKIN Butera!

 

This alone should be enough to make many a folk here rejoice upon rejoicing.

 

hehehe...of all the people that got traded, this is the one I didn't think there'd be a market for.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

The current offer from the Padres for Ian Kennedy is said to be Thatcher, Stites, and another MiLBer. Roughly equate that to Duensing, Tonkin, and xxx.

 

I'd make that deal in less than 1 second.

 

Absolutely. That would be an excellent buy low.

 

I haven't looked at his service time, but Kennedy will have 4+ years under his belt at the end of this season. While he'd be an upgrade in the rotation, and obviously has a nice ceiling, I'm not sure this would be the type trade Ryan should deal Perkins for. He'd have to lock him up, and I'd also think that Ryan would need to get one of AZ's bigger prospects to pull it off such as one of Owings/Gregorius or Bradley/Chaffin.

 

They'd have matched up well if the D'backs wanted Perkins bad enough, but I couldn't see a Kennedy for Perkins swap.

[The Wise One]

Regardless of how much value Willingham did or did not have, he had plenty of interest last season, both at the deadline and in the offseason. HIS value was as high as it was ever going to be, I said nothing of his value relative to Span or Revere or anyone else, I'm saying that HIS value was at its peak, whatever that was.

They could have gotten something for him, he is not going to be a part of this team the next time it competes for anything.

As it stands now, there is a chance he will play out his 3 year contract, on 3 90 loss teams, then leave for nothing.

Sure, he could have a bounce back season next year, but it will not be on par with his 2012 season.

Not trading him last year just proves, to me, that Terry Ryan did actually believe the stuff he was saying about how he thought he was putting a competitive team on the field this year. In my mind there is no other reason why you would pass on trading a player who won't be around past 2014 (when we'll still be terrible), for one or two who would have a chance to be part of the rebuild.

 

Some reference. Last year there were no hitters with multi year contracts traded at the deadline. Pence and Victorino, wouldn't say the long term haul was great for the trading club. Did you expect more than a c prospect?

[Mr. Brooks]

Some reference. Last year there were no hitters with multi year contracts traded at the deadline. Pence and Victorino, wouldn't say the long term haul was great for the trading club. Did you expect more than a c prospect?

 

You didn't have to trade him at the deadline, you could also have traded him in December.

 

“He’s a power righthanded bat that any contender could stick right in the middle of their lineup and get outstanding production,” said one National League GM. “You’d have to give something up, but he’d be worth the expenditure. He can really hit.”

 

Here's the latest on Philadelphia's offseason dealings, courtesy of CSNPhilly.com's Jim Salisbury...

 

• Before the Phillies acquired Ben Revere from the Twins, they attempted to also getJosh Willingham in either the same trade package or in a separate deal.
  

 

Although the Twins seem to be looking at plenty of pitching options in free agency, the team has also been more active in trade talks than expected, says Crasnick. Teams with pitchers on the block have approached the Twins about both Ben Revere and Josh Willingham.

 

Despite several teams being interested, the Twins feel strongly about holding onto 33-year-old outfielder Josh Willingham, who enters the second year of a three-year, $21 million contract.

 

The Twins could perhaps trade Willingham for a minor leaguer with upside (see: Span-for-Meyers), but that would mean throwing in the towel for 2013.

 

The Twins don't want to trade Josh Willingham but there are multiple teams interested in the leftfielder, according to Phil Mackey of 1500 ESPN (via Twitter).

 

Mariners Seek Controllable Hitters

 

By Ben Nicholson-Smith [July 29, 2012 at 2:35pm CST]

2:35pm: The Mariners are trying hard to obtain Brandon Belt, Dave Cameron of FanGraphs reports (on Twitter).

1:32pm: Mariners general manager Jack Zduriencik is looking to acquire hitters who could contribute for the next two or three seasons, Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports reports. The Mariners aim to improve an offense that currently ranks last in the American League with just 3.9 runs per game.

The Mariners are more focused on players such as Josh Willingham and Allen Craig than players like Shin-Soo Choo and Hunter Pence. Choo and Pence are eligible for free agency after the 2013 season, while Willingham is under contract through 2014 and Craig won't even be arbitration eligible before the 2013-14 offseason.

 

The Dodgers have also talked about the possibility of acquiring Justin Morneau and Josh Willingham of the Twins, Knobler reports.

 

 

• The Twins don’t seem interested in trading Josh Willingham, but a long list of teams would have interest if Minnesota makes the outfielder available.
  

 

 

• The Twins haven’t put Josh Willingham on the trade market yet, but he’s in high demand, Morosi reports (on Twitter).
  

 

• The Twins haven't made Josh Willingham off-limits to other teams, but they aren't shopping him, Phil Mackey and Darren Wolfson of 1500ESPN.com report. Willingham, who's in the first year of a three-year, $21MM contract, is "definitely" Minnesota's most valuable trade chip, 1500ESPN.com reports. However, the Twins are enjoying Willingham's production and would prefer not to trade a player so early in a multiyear contract.
  

 

• Teams have checked in on Josh Willingham but have been told that he isn't available. Some believe this could change but others believe Twins GM Terry Ryan "is, generally speaking, conservative with in-season deals" so the Twins could hold onto their slugger.
  

All from:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/josh_willingham/

The list goes on and on with well knows media members with good sources claiming there was plenty of interest in Willingham, both at the deadline and in December.

[TheLeviathan]

A tweet from Darren Wolfson shows exactly why Ryan never gets anything done at the trade deadline:

 

Ryan admitted he only started making a lot of calls in the last 24-48 hours. He's more a phone call taker. Should've changed this year.

 

That is impossible to defend. Iftrue that kind of passivity is unacceptable.