Grading Terry Ryan

[Willihammer]

When you figure most MLs start their careers at 23 or 24, and often their first year isn't counted as service time cause it's a partial year, it makes sense most FAs are 28 or older, since teams control them for 6 years.

 

It basically means to get a true quality player, we'll have to sign a guy till he's in his mid 30s, which many don't advocate.

 

And that throws out the whole argument of waiting on a 28 year old in 2013 because there will be comparable 28 year olds available "when we're ready." It very well could play out that a 30 year old Anibal is as good as anyone else on this list, aside from maybe Kershaw.

 

Only of course you have the benefit of using him now, and paying him 2013 money instead of 2014 or 2015 money, and committing to his 28-33 year old years, instead of his 30-35 year old years.

[zenser]

Which is why the Twins should be pursuing better free agents, just not ones that require a five year commitment.

I'm all for spending the money. I'm for spending money on 1-3 year contracts starting last offseason and I'm for spending big money on free agents in 1-2 years.

I hope that in 2-3 years we won't have to spend big in free agency to fix our rotation. I wish they would have pursued Sanchez harder so there was a reliable veteran in the rotation when the younger wave of starters come up. Then when his five year deal is up, you could have Gibson, Meyer, or whoever emerges as our ace at the front of the rotation.

 

I am not saying that Sanchez would have been the savior but he is better then the retreads we are so used to seeing year in and year out.

[TheLeviathan]

It very well could play out that a 30 year old Anibal is as good as anyone else on this list, aside from maybe Kershaw.

 

Especially since some on your list are likely to get resigned/extended and never make the market.

[TheLeviathan]

But isn't the extra money and chances that teams will lock up their own players the reason for making smart trades now? Such as the Revere and Span deals to bring in pitching prospects with a high upside who will hopefully be ready in a couple years?

 

I'll keep saying it until this false argument stops: It is not an either/or situation. Please stop mislabeling it.

 

I guess I agree with this much - when this magical injury-free, 28 or younger starter hits the market at just the perfect time before we contend - he would be wise to sign. I guess I'm just not content to put all my eggs in that basket.

 

Seems like just a wee bit of wishful thinking.

[ThePuck]

Especially since some on your list are likely to get resigned/extended and never make the market.

 

And since the ones that remain will be sucked up by teams willing to spend the money and commit the years needed to get them.

[ThePuck]

I'll keep saying it until this false argument stops: It is not an either/or situation. Please stop mislabeling it.

 

I guess I agree with this much - when this magical injury-free, 28 or younger starter hits the market at just the perfect time before we contend - he would be wise to sign. I guess I'm just not content to put all my eggs in that basket.

 

Seems like just a wee bit of wishful thinking.

 

And no one else will look at that unicorn and spend more and commit more years to get him :-)

[Willihammer]

Especially since some on your list are likely to get resigned/extended and never make the market.

 

Right, Kershaw being probably the most likely one too.

[JB_Iowa]

I'm not sure this is a fair shot at Ryan. When he was GM in his first go-round, he was extremely hindered by payroll issues but was still able to build a couple different core teams. That's a positive for him. Payroll went up under a different GM. When he came back, it was rebuilding time (it's why they got him) so spending a lot didn't make sense. We don't know if he'll spend big in FA in a few years or keep payroll low but basing it on how he managed the team under a different financial situation doesn't make sense.

 

And I think it's rather silly for Ryan to make a splashy move just to show some people that he might do something. If you can't see that Ryan isn't making moves to make this team better now, then signing Sanchez wouldn't do it either.

 

What do we have to judge Terry Ryan by EXCEPT his past record and what he has NOT done since he has returned?

 

WHAT, if any, evidence do you have that he will be willing to sign 1 or more big dollar free agents?

 

He is conservative down to the core (he is not Paul Ryan's relative for nothing). Yes, I'm a skeptic. I'll have to SEE it to believe it.

 

 

(Oh, and I didn't say he had to make a particularly splashy move but cutting payroll is not the way to convince me).

[gunnarthor]

I guess I agree with this much - when this magical injury-free, 28 or younger starter hits the market at just the perfect time before we contend - he would be wise to sign. I guess I'm just not content to put all my eggs in that basket.

 

Seems like just a wee bit of wishful thinking.

 

No one is clamoring for a magical starter. Some wisely think that 29 yr old pitchers with shoulder injuries and no track record of durability are probably a bad investment. Esp in a rebuilding year.

[TheLeviathan]

No one is clamoring for a magical starter. Some wisely think that 29 yr old pitchers with shoulder injuries and no track record of durability are probably a bad investment. Esp in a rebuilding year.

 

If you look at the projected FA starters for the next two years, I would dare you to find more than three that wouldn't have equal or greater red flags like: injuries, poor performances, aging, conversion to the AL, etc.

 

I'm being realistic here, you are relying on some pretty wishful thinking if you're picking apart Sanchez as a model of a bad investment.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I guess I agree with this much - when this magical injury-free, 28 or younger starter hits the market at just the perfect time before we contend - he would be wise to sign. I guess I'm just not content to put all my eggs in that basket.

 

You're strawman-ing my argument a bit, Levi. No starter is injury-proof or perfect; that's my entire point. They're all a pretty big risk. The only reasonable way to *slightly* mitigate that risk is to try to get a young-ish guy around the time you need him the most.

 

There's no reason to think that Anibal Sanchez is particularly durable or a better risk than, say, Josh Johnson next season or the upcoming jewel of free agency, Clayton Kershaw. Hell, Sanchez is already injured. He has never pitched even 200 innings in a season (and he won't this season, either).

 

It's not about the "perfect" free agent or perfect timing (though that would be nice), it's about getting as close as possible. Maybe you're a year off if you try to time it exactly but had the Twins signed Sanchez last season, they'd be at least one season off, probably more like two or three seasons off with their timing. You don't have to time it perfectly, you just have to try to get close.

 

Good pitchers in the 27-30 year old range are always available if you're willing to spend the money. I don't see anything particularly special about Anibal Sanchez that warranted him spending a couple of prime seasons on a team that just isn't going to win the division.

 

With that said, I'd love to see the Twins start courting Josh Johnson this offseason. Given the performances of Arcia, Hicks, and Gibson with Sano and Buxton looking more ready by the day, I think it's time to start exploring free agency a bit and given that Johnson is from Minneapolis, it might be easier to get him to come to the team than it would be a Sanchez or Jackson or whatever.

[gunnarthor]

If you look at the projected FA starters for the next two years, I would dare you to find more than three that wouldn't have equal or greater red flags like: injuries, poor performances, aging, conversion to the AL, etc.

 

I'm being realistic here, you are relying on some pretty wishful thinking if you're picking apart Sanchez as a model of a bad investment.

 

So maybe the answer to making a solid pitching staff isn't through free agency? Maybe the team should draft well, make some strong trades and build up through a core? Sort of like what the GM is clearly doing?

 

If the best argument against Ryan's plan is "pay a lot of money and hope" I'm ok with the GMs plan.

[TheLeviathan]

The only reasonable way to *slightly* mitigate that risk is to try to get a young-ish guy around the time you need him the most.

 

My argument is not leveled at you. I understand (though not totally agree) with your point. But others are taking your point farther than that.

 

My bone with your argument is about the timing. November of last year, would you have expected Arcia to have a couple hundred at-bats already in July? Or that Rosario and Sano would already be in AA with a good chance of a June call-up next year? (Buxton not far behind)

 

Timetables can accelerate quickly and given how tenuous talent levels in FA can be, I wouldn't wait if there is a youngish starter available who can help settle things for your organization. Given how bleak this year's FA crop looks....I wouldn't have waited three offseasons to start that process personally.

[TheLeviathan]

So maybe the answer to making a solid pitching staff isn't through free agency? Maybe the team should draft well, make some strong trades and build up through a core? Sort of like what the GM is clearly doing?

 

This team hasn't shown the ability to draft and develop an elite starter in...well...I have no idea how long it's been. But it's been a damn long time.

 

Again, you defer back to the either/or claim. He should be adding players in trades and drafting more starters like Stewart and Berrio...but that is unlikely to be enough.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Timetables can accelerate quickly and given how tenuous talent levels in FA can be, I wouldn't wait if there is a youngish starter available who can help settle things for your organization. Given how bleak this year's FA crop looks....I wouldn't have waited three offseasons to start that process personally.

 

I edited my post so you didn't have a chance to respond:

 

Timetables absolutely accelerate and it appears that the Twins may be on an accelerated timeline at this point. Which is why I think it's wise to pursue Johnson this offseason. He's from the Twin Cities so the "no way in hell am I playing for the Twins" card almost certainly isn't a problem. He's not having a particularly good season so his price should be down a bit from where it was in previous seasons. He's not young but he's not old, either.

 

He's not going to be an ace but that's okay. The extra, say, $100m it costs to get a real "ace" versus a solid #2 is tough to swallow and if the Twins are going to front a superstar ace pitcher, it's going to come from within.

[Mike Sixel]

They are likely to lose more than 90 games again. That part is an F to me. Worley and Pelfrey suck. They cannot hit, and are mediocre in the field. They did not commit to either a rebuild or contend plan, in other words, they seem to have no clear strategy. Where there are choices between vets and young players, the vets are playing.

 

As for the trades, I remain hopeful about both May and Meyer, but we will see. As for the minors, the only thing Ryan is doing to really help is making sure they suck, so they get a shot at more elite players, but he does not make the choices.

 

I would give him a c minus, that will be a b plus if one of May, Meyer is legit, and an F if neither are. An A if both are legit starters soon.

 

Admittedly I am posting fom the hospital with a broken leg, so maybe I am taking out my frustration in this post.....

[ThePuck]

This team hasn't shown the ability to draft and develop an elite starter in...well...I have no idea how long it's been. But it's been a damn long time.

 

Again, you defer back to the either/or claim. He should be adding players in trades and drafting more starters like Stewart and Berrio...but that is unlikely to be enough.

 

yeah, sometimes it's nice to add a pitcher who has actually proven he can do very well at the major league level. Like you said, we haven't drafted and developed an elite pitcher in forever. When we trade for minor league pitchers, they still haven't proven anything at the ML level. When you toss out the ability to actually get a player you've seen have very good success at the ML level, you're playing way more into the 'hope' game than signing a guy you know can do very well and hope doesn't get hurt or digress too much.

[TheLeviathan]

I Which is why I think it's wise to pursue Johnson this offseason.

 

Completely agree. We're going to have to wait and see what Ryan does. But Johnson screams as a good fit even with lengthy rap sheet of concerns, but that's irrelevant. We need him/

[BabyJesusBuxton]

I guess I agree with this much - when this magical injury-free, 28 or younger starter hits the market at just the perfect time before we contend - he would be wise to sign. I guess I'm just not content to put all my eggs in that basket.

 

Seems like just a wee bit of wishful thinking.

 

I am not against signing an older pitcher. I think that signing a good pitcher around 30 to 34 to a 3 year deal for 20 million a year could be really good when the timing is right. It's the 5+ year deals for anyone showing injury history I have trouble arguing for. This forum would blow up with comments about all the money wasted if the pitcher ends up needing Tommy John or shoulder surgery and is out for a year while collecting a 15-20 million dollar check. Sure this might not happen and the contract works out but there is a good probability that it could. This is where the risk vs reward debate comes into play.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Completely agree. We're going to have to wait and see what Ryan does. But Johnson screams as a good fit even with lengthy rap sheet of concerns, but that's irrelevant. We need him/

 

Yep, he has quite a few injury concerns but damn, it's hard to pass up on a guy from Minneapolis. He won't require an extra $10m to come home and his upside is still really high.

[ThePuck]

Completely agree. We're going to have to wait and see what Ryan does. But Johnson screams as a good fit even with lengthy rap sheet of concerns, but that's irrelevant. We need him/

 

Talk about a risky player to get. And he'll be a whopping 30 years old! And why try if we waste his first two years when we aren't competitive. And do we want to sign him for the years he'll require with his injury history :-)

[Willihammer]

Good pitchers in the 27-30 year old range are always available if you're willing to spend the money. I don't see anything particularly special about Anibal Sanchez that warranted him spending a couple of prime seasons on a team that just isn't going to win the division.

 

For starters, there would have been denial value in stopping the Tigers securing the 2nd best pitcher of the 2013 class for 5 years. Secondly, Sanchez would have accelerated the Twins timeline for contention. And thirdly, his aging curve isn't even that out of whack from the best pitchers likely available for the next 1 or 2 offseasons. If you're willing to commit 5 years to a 30 year old in 2014, then why not commit 5 years to a 28 year old in 2013?

[TheLeviathan]

I am not against signing an older pitcher.

 

5 year deal for moderate injury concerns >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 3 year deals for players well into their decline phase.

 

Every day of the week.

[jay]

And yet another thread devolves to payroll and signing free agents...

 

The silly part is that basically every argument here says the Twins should have signed a pitcher with the potential to be better than our current lot this off-season. Every single post I've read wants the Twins to be ready to sign a FA to help us contend. Yet, we still lambast any one who says TR should lay out a multi-year, high-dollar contract in the near future as opposed to 6 months ago.

 

We're working up a lot of dust over some split hairs.

[ThePuck]

For starters, there would have been denial value in stopping the Tigers securing the 2nd best pitcher of the 2013 class for 5 years. Secondly, Sanchez would have accelerated the Twins timeline for contention. And thirdly, his aging curve isn't even that out of whack from the best pitchers likely available for the next 1 or 2 offseasons. If you're willing to commit 5 years to a 30 year old in 2014, then why not commit 5 years to a 28 year old in 2013?

 

Bingo

[ThePuck]

And yet another thread devolves to payroll and signing free agents...

 

 

 

.

 

Why wouldn't it, since it's about grading the GM?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Talk about a risky player to get. And he'll be a whopping 30 years old! And why try if we waste his first two years when we aren't competitive. And do we want to sign him for the years he'll require with his injury history :-)

 

Yeah, just go ahead and ignore the entire "he's from Minnesota" thing, which is probably more important than anything else.

 

For all we know, Anibal Sanchez would have told the Twins to piss off if they offered him $25m a season. Unlikely, but it takes two to tango and Johnson would almost certainly come home to Minneapolis if the price is right (and may even take a slight discount to do it).

 

We have no idea what kind of motivation drives these players. Sometimes, it's winning. Sometimes, it's market size. Sometimes, it's comfort level. And when it comes to the 2013 Twins, they have nothing going for them except with Johnson, who would almost certainly be comfortable playing 81 games in Minneapolis. Most players can be had by offering them the most money but that's not always the case and we can't assume that Player X is willing to go to Team X just because they throw money at him.

 

So when a player comes along where you naturally have a leg up on the competition to attain said player, you have to dip your toe in the water and give it a shot.

[ThePuck]

Yeah, just go ahead and ignore the entire "he's from Minnesota" thing, which is probably more important than anything else.

 

For all we know, Anibal Sanchez would have told the Twins to piss off if they offered him $25m a season. Unlikely, but it takes two to tango and Johnson would almost certainly come home to Minneapolis if the price is right (and may even take a slight discount to do it).

 

We have no idea what kind of motivation drives these players. Sometimes, it's winning. Sometimes, it's market size. Sometimes, it's comfort level. And when it comes to the 2013 Twins, they have nothing going for them except with Johnson, who would almost certainly be comfortable playing 81 games in Minneapolis.

 

That's speculation, so I absolutely ignore it. Not everyone cares about playing for the hometown team. You assume he does. Not every player is going to make the Twins pay a boatload more than anyone else because they are in Minny or because they haven't been good for a couple years when before they were for a decade. You seem to assume they will, or at least all the good ones which sure is a convenient argument.

 

Obviously i know there are different motivating factors for players, I just don't bend them all the time to fit my argument. You start a paragraph saying we don't know what motivates a player to sign somewhere, but end the same paragraph saying it's almost assured Johnson would want to play half hsi games in Minny.

 

I'm from California, I don't know what it would take for someone to get me to move back there, but man it'd have to be something huge.

[Brock Beauchamp]

That's speculation, so I absolutely ignore it. Not everyone cares about playing for the hometown team. You assume he does. Not every player is going to make the Twins pay a boatload more than anyone else because they are in Minny or because they haven't been good for a couple years when before they were for a decade. You seem to assume they will, or at least all the good ones which sure is a convenient argument.

 

Obviously i know there are different motivating factors for players, I just don't bend them all the time to fit my argument.

 

Yeah, I'm bending the argument by saying that it's worth the Twins' time to talk to Johnson to see if he's willing to come back to the city where he was born and play for the Twins.

 

I didn't say they would sign him. I didn't say that he'd listen. I merely said that the Twins have an "in" with Johnson that they don't have with most other players, some of which can't find Minnesota on a map even though they've pitched in Target Field.

 

At the end of the day, money matters more than anything and the offer has to be competitive. But if you have a leg up on acquiring a guy for any reason, you pursue that avenue to see if it bears fruit.

[jay]

Why wouldn't it, since it's about grading the GM?

 

You're right and there is no amount of surprise here.