Grading Terry Ryan

[chopper0080]

In my mind Terry Ryan's grade goes hand in hand with the Twins major league production which has been poor. Sure our farm system seems stocked, but that doesn't mean these prospects will turn into major league contributors.

 

Do we have a better farm system? Yes.

 

Are we in a good financial situation heading into 2014? Yes.

 

Has any of these things led to a better professional record? No, and that is what matters. You have to take into consideration that many of Ryan's best moves haven't played out yet which means you can argue to give him more time, but the production so far as been belowe average. The end grade will come with how he uses the money he will have in 2014 and if the prospects he has acquired can make it to the Pros. I also hope he uses this offseason to give Gardy a serious evaluation and not just extend him because he is the "devil we know".

 

My grade = C-

[zenser]

I would have to give my grade as a C- as well. TR has had some nice signing with Willingham, Doumit, Burton, Fein, and even KC. I will be the first to admit that I hated the KC signing and that he would be worthless. I stand corrected on that.

 

My problem with his handling of the major league roster is that the rotation was always turned over and never upgraded. Guys like KC, Pelfrey, and Marquis should be complements to the rotation. If those guys were are fourth or fifth starter, I could live with that if they had quality at the top of the rotation. Right now, they don't have that. They are lacking a guy that can take the ball every fifth day and stop a three or four game losing streak and you have the confidence that they will end it.

 

I guess my point is that if you are only planning on spending 4-8 million per year on a starter, they better expect the results that they have been receiving from Pelfrey, KC, and last year with Marquis. They will either need to develop some front of the rotation guys (Gibson, Meyer, Barrios, Stewart) or be willing to give a guy like Anibal Sanchez the type of contract he received. Unfortunately, I don't know if I would give a Sanchez like contract to anyone in this next years class.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Like someone else said, I'm not sure you can simply divorce the minor and the major league portions of the club. TR runs the organization, not one piece of the organization. It was clear after this offseason that TR was looking at a rebuild, and in a matter of a few months, managed to strengthen the glaring weakness in the farm system, and while I don't think he's accumulated enough pitching (as you can never have enough), there are now higher/high upside arms in the system (Meyer, May, Stewart, Eades, Thorpe, Gonsalves, and Berrios) where there were none a two years earlier. To do that, he had to sacrifice from the major league roster (Span and Revere) along with a losing seasons.

 

Whether you agree or not, it is clear that Ryan had no plans on any long term signings that would get in the way of guys coming up through the system, and next year, we will likely begin to see the fruits of this, as at one point, the rotation will likely have Gibson, Meyer, May, and Darnell in it with guys like Worley, Deduno, Diamond, and Hendricks clamoring for spots. Corriea at 2 years (though I suspect he gets flipped) is going to clog this. Imagine what Sanchez for another 4 years would do, especially when Berrios, Stewart, Thorpe, Eades, and Gonsalves are all looking for spots?

 

The bottom line is that the current ML roster was constructed in that light. I suspect next year's will be too, with no pitching signings at all other than a reclamation project.

[nicksaviking]

I'm at a loss how Ryan defenders can point to the Scott Baker singning as a poor one when his zero WAR is superior to the negative WAR of Mike Pelfrey. Baker, who has not played, has not produced negative results for his club. Both were a waste of money but at least Baker hasn't hurt his club.

[zenser]

Whether you agree or not, it is clear that Ryan had no plans on any long term signings that would get in the way of guys coming up through the system, and next year, we will likely begin to see the fruits of this, as at one point, the rotation will likely have Gibson, Meyer, May, and Darnell in it with guys like Worley, Deduno, Diamond, and Hendricks clamoring for spots. Corriea at 2 years (though I suspect he gets flipped) is going to clog this. Imagine what Sanchez for another 4 years would do, especially when Berrios, Stewart, Thorpe, Eades, and Gonsalves are all looking for spots?

IMO, Sanchez would have looked really nice at the front of that rotation.

[drjim]

I'm at a loss how Ryan defenders can point to the Scott Baker singning as a poor one when his zero WAR is superior to the negative WAR of Mike Pelfrey. Baker, who has not played, has not produced negative results for his club. Both were a waste of money but at least Baker hasn't hurt his club.

 

Because WAR is a flawed stat?

 

Pelfrey is probably the "R" of that equation despite what numbers might say. The fact he has actually thrown some innings and even been effective on occasion makes him more valuable than Baker.

[jay]

I'm at a loss how Ryan defenders can point to the Scott Baker singning as a poor one when his zero WAR is superior to the negative WAR of Mike Pelfrey. Baker, who has not played, has not produced negative results for his club. Both were a waste of money but at least Baker hasn't hurt his club.

 

The contentious point here is why the Twins FO hasn't engaged in flipping FAs for prospects.

 

A guy who is still injured and will not pitch isn't even tradeable. A guy who has been mediocre yet improving, but perhaps even below replacement level by some metrics, is definitively worth more (but still, not much) should TR try to flip him.

[diehardtwinsfan]

IMO, Sanchez would have looked really nice at the front of that rotation.

 

This assumes a few things:

 

1) That he signs.

2) That he's still pitching well when the Twins are relevant again. He certainly would look good now, but that would matter not.

[BabyJesusBuxton]

When grading TR and his lack of adding SP everyone should remember a couple things.

1. Not too many FA pitchers were interested in pitching for the Twins in 2013.

2. TR was not going to commit to a long term contract for a pitcher which rules out the interesting options who would bring significant value IMO.

 

My personal take on this approach is mixed. I would have liked to see something more than Correia added to the rotation although he has been a pleasant surprise. I also thought the Vanimal would have been close to league average. At the same time I thought that I'd rather be sitting where we were at the start of the season than have an overpaid, underperforming pitcher on our roster that is immovable because of the contract.

 

I'd say due to the lack of SP options interested in the Twins, the performance of the other FA pitchers to date, and the bullpen's quality I would give TR an A- on the pitching staff. Next year I would expect more pitchers will show interest in talking with the Twins as they should start to trend upward next year (Twins fan's optimism at play here).

 

If TR repeats the same type of moves next offseason I will have an issue and begin questioning his plan. For now I think he has a vision of what the club can look like in 2014 and will give him another offseason before I abandon ship.

[ThePuck]

2) That he's still pitching well when the Twins are relevant again. He certainly would look good now, but that would matter not.

 

It always matters. Any time you can improve your club, it matters. Especially with money to spend just sitting there.

[Brock Beauchamp]

It always matters. Any time you can improve your club, it matters. Especially with money to spend just sitting there.

 

Unless it's 2016, Sanchez is either not pitching or ineffective, and the Twins are handing him $17m every season to do little or nothing.

 

The typical veteran decline arc means it's a pretty bad idea to sign a guy to a five year deal when you can't realistically compete until year three of said contract.

 

If you're going to lose, just lose... Keep that money for a guy when you're ready to compete and then get the best 1-2 years out of that player while you're competitive.

 

Of course, none of this stops the front office from taking on shorter term, higher risk contracts to make the team not-awful during those bridge years.

[jokin]

Unless it's 2016, Sanchez is either not pitching or ineffective, and the Twins are handing him $17m every season to do little or nothing.

 

The typical veteran decline arc means it's a pretty bad idea to sign a guy to a five year deal when you can't realistically compete until year three of said contract.

 

If you're going to lose, just lose... Keep that money for a guy when you're ready to compete and then get the best 1-2 years out of that player while you're competitive.

 

Of course, none of this stops the front office from taking on shorter term, higher risk contracts to make the team not-awful during those bridge years.

 

Didn't you mean "lower-risk contracts"?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Didn't you mean "lower-risk contracts"?

 

Eh, bad choice of words. I meant "higher risk" in the sense of signing someone like Ryan "My Arm Might Fall Off in Spring Training Because I'm Old" Dempster to a two year deal. The type of deal where you overpay to get someone with significant risk but only for a year or two. Overall, the contract is lower risk but the player is higher risk.

[Thrylos]

Grading Terry Ryan:

 

2012 : 4th from the bottom in baseball : D-

2013 : 5-10th from the bottom in baseball: D+

 

Blaming 2011 and 2012 on Jerry and Stelly and keeping Gardy/Andy/Vavry/Scotty around: F

[ThePuck]

Unless it's 2016, Sanchez is either not pitching or ineffective, and the Twins are handing him $17m every season to do little or nothing.

 

The typical veteran decline arc means it's a pretty bad idea to sign a guy to a five year deal when you can't realistically compete until year three of said contract.

 

If you're going to lose, just lose... Keep that money for a guy when you're ready to compete and then get the best 1-2 years out of that player while you're competitive.

 

Of course, none of this stops the front office from taking on shorter term, higher risk contracts to make the team not-awful during those bridge years.

 

I don't buy into that premise, especially the part about saving that money until 2016, as if they do that. As if they save money for a couple years then invest all of it later. They don't. It's year to year. A team should always look to improve their team, especially when the money is available. His contract wouldn't put them in a bind one bit, now or in the future. His salary would be able to be handled right now and payroll is going to continue to go down for the next 3 years, at least, as the veterans are replaced by pre-arbitration guys.

 

Sanchez is signed until he's 34. Cliff Lee is 34 right now and still awesome. No signs of slowing down. He's still an asset on the field and a tradeable asset, just like Sanchez will still likely be in 2016.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I don't buy into that premise, especially the part about saving that money until 2016, as if they do that. As if they save money for a couple years then invest all of it later. They don't. It's year to year. A team should always look to improve their team, especially when the money is available. His contract wouldn't put them in a bind one bit, now or in the future. His salary would be able to be handled right now and payroll is going to continue to go down for the next 3 years, at least, as the veterans are replaced by pre-arbitration guys.

 

Sanchez is signed until he's 34. Cliff Lee is 34 right now and still awesome. No signs of slowing down. He's still an asset on the field and a tradeable asset, just like Sanchez will still likely be in 2016.

 

I never implied that the Twins were saving money for later seasons. My point is that the Twins aren't going to spend $15m a season on a pitcher now AND pay another $15m a season for another pitcher in three seasons. Time your big FA acquisitions to match your competitiveness.

 

As for Cliff Lee, well... I'm not going to argue decline phase with you. Players, by and large, get worse with age. That's a fact. For every Cliff Lee, I can show you two Johan Santanas.

 

And it'd be a damned shame to waste a 2008 Johan Santana on this team only to be stuck with the 2011 version when the team is ready to be competitive.

[gunnarthor]

Sanchez is signed until he's 34. Cliff Lee is 34 right now and still awesome. No signs of slowing down. He's still an asset on the field and a tradeable asset, just like Sanchez will still likely be in 2016.

 

Bit of a stretch to compare the two. I could just as easily point to a pitcher that was good at 29 and done at 34. Say Johan Santana.

 

Sanchez has never thrown 200 innings in a season, Lee had done it 3x by his age 29 season. Sanchez already went to the DL this season with a strained shoulder. That isn't a the type of guy you'd normally bet to have a long durable career. No reason for the Twins to outbid Detroit for him and watch him waste roster/payroll when the next core is ready.

[TheLeviathan]

So much of this "wait for three years" presumes there will be something there in three years. Not to mention presumes we'll know the perfect time to strike.

 

The "sign good players when you can", at the very least, does away with some mighty big presumptions.

[ThePuck]

I never implied that the Twins were saving money for later seasons. My point is that the Twins aren't going to spend $15m a season on a pitcher now AND pay another $15m a season for another pitcher in three seasons. Time your big FA acquisitions to match your competitiveness.

 

As for Cliff Lee, well... I'm not going to argue decline phase with you. Players, by and large, get worse with age. That's a fact. For every Cliff Lee, I can show you two Johan Santanas.

 

And it'd be a damned shame to waste a 2008 Johan Santana on this team only to be stuck with the 2011 version when the team is ready to be competitive.

 

You didn't imply it? You wrote: 'If you're going to lose, just lose... Keep that money for a guy when you're ready to compete'. How is that not saying save that money for later?

 

34 is not too old. If you're gonna say that, you might as well never sign a free agent to any type of semi-long to long free agent contract...because most hit FA around the same age Sanchez did this year.

 

People talked about how Hunter wasn't worth the contract he got either, and he's still rolling. He would have helped us big time, but Ryan wouldn't extend him prior to the 2007 season, and he was one of our guys.

 

Right now, if they can afford to take the chance, and the Twins clearly can, you do it. It won't stop their ability to spend later. Not one bit.

 

All this is hypothetical anyway. Ryan will never spend the money or give the years needed to sign a star free agent anyway. Whether we are competitive or not.

[gunnarthor]

So much of this "wait for three years" presumes there will be something there in three years. Not to mention presumes we'll know the perfect time to strike.

 

The "sign good players when you can", at the very least, does away with some mighty big presumptions.

 

Well, if there's nothing there in 3 years then Sanchez wouldn't have helped anyway.

[TheLeviathan]

Well, if there's nothing there in 3 years then Sanchez wouldn't have helped anyway.

 

Depends on his trade value. He's certainly got a good chance of not hurting them either.

[ThePuck]

Well, if there's nothing there in 3 years then Sanchez wouldn't have helped anyway.

 

Better the Pohlads just pocket the money instead of taking a chance...as if he wouldn't be an asset later in his contract, either as a pitcher or a player to be traded.

[gunnarthor]

Better the Pohlads just pocket the money instead of taking a chance...as if he wouldn't be an asset later in his contract, either as a pitcher or a player to be traded.

 

Or, better the GM construct another playoff caliber team.

[gunnarthor]

Depends on his trade value. He's certainly got a good chance of not hurting them either.

 

Shoulder injuries at 29 aren't normally the guys you want to bet on down the road.

[jokin]

Or, better the GM construct another playoff caliber team.

 

I guess I missed the "Under Construction" signs posted at Target Field and on their website. The "message" this year, from Jim Pohlad on down, was that this was going to be a "pretty competitive" team, NOW, in 2013, not at some yet to be determined date down the road.

[TheLeviathan]

Shoulder injuries at 29 aren't normally the guys you want to bet on down the road.

 

Maybe not. My retort would be that most FAs that hit the market have some warts and all players (prospects, trade targets, your own players) come with risks.

 

As much as I appreciate Ryan's ability to build an organization, FA is going to have to be utilized at some point to help build that playoff caliber team you talked about above. Waiting for that perfect moment (as if it is a neon sign that starts flashing) or for that perfect player is built on far too many presumptions to me.

 

Hell, I'd argue it's far riskier to wait and hope than it is to sign and hope.

[ThePuck]

Shoulder injuries at 29 aren't normally the guys you want to bet on down the road.

 

That's a hindsight argument right there. I'm sure you know that.

[ThePuck]

Or, better the GM construct another playoff caliber team.

 

Building a playoff caliber team requires using all ways possible to improve your team. Ryan basically punts on FA, and will continue to do so.

[Top Gun]

The grade is F mighty fine mess we are in. The worst is yet to come. He has got to go that would be a improvement.

[ThePuck]

 

Hell, I'd argue it's far riskier to wait and hope than it is to sign and hope.

 

 

That's because it is.