Kyle Gibson, Andrew Albers and consistency

[IdahoPilgrim]

Gibson was inconsistent earlier, but he has done well the past 5 starts. So has Albers. Gibson does have better numbers over the past 28 days, although not by much, so I would be happy either way.

 

Since in general I don't buy into the whole conspiracy theory or that the team has favorites and/or people they just don't like, there could be a couple of other factors involved as well. Gibson is recovering from TJ surgery, and it is entirely possible that they see something in his delivery/starts that gives them pause to pull the trigger quite yet, something that wouldn't show up in AAA numbers but would in MLB numbers. Also, Albers is a leftie, so particularly if Diamond is looking at being taken out of the rotation, that could also be a factor.

 

Again, all speculation, but I guess I just don't see this as some nefarious plot.

[nicksaviking]

The thing with Gibson is the twins want and need him to pitch like a number 2 when he is called up, so if they still have things to improve with him, there is no rush. While I don't doubt he could "hold his own" now, I want him to come up and be a game changer in the majors, not just another mid to back end guy

 

So make him wait another year before he gets regular experience at the big league level? Are we seriously waiting becuase we want him to be ready to win the Cy Young the second he gets called up?

[nicksaviking]

I have a hard time believing that there isn't still something wrong with Diamond.

 

Unless one was to think 2012 was the exception not the rule for him.

[jokin]

The handling of gibson is just Ryan preparing for arbritation, claiming hes inconsistant,

start claiming it now and save money later , attaboy Curly

 

The coast is apparently clear on Super 2 arbitration issues, as Wil Myers will be in the starting lineup tomorrow night against Boston. Wil Myers Called to Action By Tampa Bay Rays | Bleacher Report

 

How long before Gibson gets his own call now?

[jokin]

Gibson was inconsistent earlier, but he has done well the past 5 starts. So has Albers. Gibson does have better numbers over the past 28 days, although not by much, so I would be happy either way.

 

Since in general I don't buy into the whole conspiracy theory or that the team has favorites and/or people they just don't like, there could be a couple of other factors involved as well. Gibson is recovering from TJ surgery, and it is entirely possible that they see something in his delivery/starts that gives them pause to pull the trigger quite yet, something that wouldn't show up in AAA numbers but would in MLB numbers. Also, Albers is a leftie, so particularly if Diamond is looking at being taken out of the rotation, that could also be a factor.

 

Again, all speculation, but I guess I just don't see this as some nefarious plot.

 

Who said anything about nefarious?

[jm3319]

 

Lastly, whether Gibson pitchers 5, 50 or 150 innings for the Twins this year it changes nothing about next year. He is still going to open up the season with the Twins and , barring an injury or a Blackburnesque collapse, will have a spot in the rotation all season long. That will be his year to perform regardless of what he does or does not do this year. So while we might be itching for him to come up so we can "oooh" and "ahhhhh" at the pitching when you zoom out and look at the bigger picture this year means little for Gibson's career or the Twins future.

 

So you're saying big league experience is completely unimportant? I agreed with everything else you said, but I feel he would still benefit from getting MLB innings if for nothing more than the experience factor so he has something to build upon next year when he is a regular.

[jokin]

6 weeks ago I was one who wanted to see more consistency out of Gibson. At that point he was literally Good-Bad-Good-Bad. Since then he has only had one really bad start out of his last seven or so. I think at this point I think he is capable of coming up and performing as well as any other pitcher.

 

That said, Albers is having a fantastic year as well. There is nothing wrong with Ryan acknowledging that. At this point he hasn't promoted Albers instead of Gibson or anything, he only replied to a question he may or may not have been prepared for. If another pitcher was needed who knows what would actually happen.

 

Lastly, whether Gibson pitchers 5, 50 or 150 innings for the Twins this year it changes nothing about next year. He is still going to open up the season with the Twins and , barring an injury or a Blackburnesque collapse, will have a spot in the rotation all season long. That will be his year to perform regardless of what he does or does not do this year. So while we might be itching for him to come up so we can "oooh" and "ahhhhh" at the pitching when you zoom out and look at the bigger picture this year means little for Gibson's career or the Twins future.

 

Frankly, I doubt that there will be a cascade of oohing and ahhhhing possibilities this year. And that is hardly the point for getting him up to the Twins. He is on limited innings and this is the perfect situation to get his feet wet and help him prepare for opening day next season. It's like anything you do in life that's challenging, get some practice and continued reps against the real thing, you can find out now what you need to work on and address both this season and in the offseason.

 

At his current 85.2 IP already, the opportunities for doing so are rapidly dwindling.

[Badsmerf]

They are purposefully tanking.

[jorgenswest]

Lots of small sample discussion here. Hopefully the Twins aren't using stats in these size samples to make a decision. Evaluation of the coaches and staff at the games should carry much more weight. The whole season sample may be enough to look at strike out rate and ground ball/fly ball rate. It certainly isn't large enough to look at only a handful of starts. Any assessment of consistency can only be made by first hand observation.

 

If there is concern about Gibson's innings and stress, AAA innings will be less stress on the arm than major league innings. Any pitcher is going to face more difficult higher pitch count innings against a major league lineup. The innings and longer outings in AAA will help to rebuild arm strength. Every decision about Gibson has to made with the plan for him to get 30 starts in 2014. Clearly time in the majors will help him be successful next year, but he doesn't need to be up yet.

[Oxtung]

So you're saying big league experience is completely unimportant? I agreed with everything else you said, but I feel he would still benefit from getting MLB innings if for nothing more than the experience factor so he has something to build upon next year when he is a regular.

 

You think 70 innings this year is going to change how Gibson pitches in 2015 and 2016? That is when the Twins might be starting their window of contention.

 

Personally I think it will have little impact compared to the, hopefully, 200 innings next season.

 

He is on limited innings and this is the perfect situation to get his feet wet and help him prepare for opening day next season. It's like anything you do in life that's challenging, get some practice and continued reps against the real thing, you can find out now what you need to work on and address both this season and in the offseason.

 

At his current 85.2 IP already, the opportunities for doing so are rapidly dwindling.

 

What is so important about opening day 2014? They won't be contenders next season. The important date is opening day 2015, which in itself is pretty optimistic. Unless of course Ryan decides to go out and add legitimate talent via FA this offseason but I think we both know how that will turn out.

[TheLeviathan]

If there is concern about Gibson's innings and stress, AAA innings will be less stress on the arm than major league innings. Any pitcher is going to face more difficult higher pitch count innings against a major league lineup. The innings and longer outings in AAA will help to rebuild arm strength. Every decision about Gibson has to made with the plan for him to get 30 starts in 2014. Clearly time in the majors will help him be successful next year, but he doesn't need to be up yet.

 

As was said earlier, the clock is ticking quickly. If this is truly about stretching him out, then why not just say that? What benefit does it serve to make up some nonsense about consistency? I think Gibson and the fan base could understand: "we feel it serves his injury rehab best to be in AAA." Some might quibble with that, but at least it would make some minimum threshold of rationality. This?

 

Well, it's not "nefarious", but it's damn sure "dubious", "inexplicable", and increasingly "frustrating".

[nicksaviking]

You think 70 innings this year is going to change how Gibson pitches in 2015 and 2016? That is when the Twins might be starting their window of contention.

 

No, obviously the issue is that the 70 innings may change how he pitches in 2014. Then how he pitches in 2014 may change how he pitches in 2015. As it stands now, he likely doesn't have 70 innings left. Your arguement in defense of Terry Ryan seems to soley be, "It doesn't matter." If it doesn't matter then why not call him up? We have yet to hear from a front office defender a legitimetly negative consequence that would actually befall Gibson due to a call up.

[Oxtung]

No, obviously the issue is that the 70 innings may change how he pitches in 2014. Then how he pitches in 2014 may change how he pitches in 2015. As it stands now, he likely doesn't have 70 innings left. Your arguement in defense of Terry Ryan seems to soley be, "It doesn't matter." If it doesn't matter then why not call him up? We have yet to hear from a front office defender a legitimetly negative consequence that would actually befall Gibson due to a call up.

 

I think that is the first time anyone has ever called me a front office defender.

 

Regardless you are misunderstanding me. I don't care if he called up now or not. I am not attempting to defend the Ryan or the front office. I am merely pointing out that when you take a step back and look at the long term plan, whether Gibson pitches for the Twins in 2013 or not it doesn't change anything about his future or the Twins. He is going to start 2014 in the rotation and hopefully throw 200 innings. Those will be the important innings during the 2014-2015 offseason and the decisions that need to be made, not anything he does this year.

[jokin]

I think that is the first time anyone has ever called me a front office defender.

 

Regardless you are misunderstanding me. I don't care if he called up now or not. I am not attempting to defend the Ryan or the front office. I am merely pointing out that when you take a step back and look at the long term plan, whether Gibson pitches for the Twins in 2013 or not it doesn't change anything about his future or the Twins. He is going to start 2014 in the rotation and hopefully throw 200 innings. Those will be the important innings during the 2014-2015 offseason and the decisions that need to be made, not anything he does this year.

 

Nick asked for what negative consequences would be incurred by not calling him up. I noticed you didn't answer that question...

 

If he's not going to get the ~55-60 innings he has left on his limited schedule, with the Twins this year, than they may as well protect his arb value yet again in 2014. Maybe by one year from today, we can take the chance and oh so gingerly see if he's ready to implement the "long term plan" most efficiently!

[jokin]

You think 70 innings this year is going to change how Gibson pitches in 2015 and 2016? That is when the Twins might be starting their window of contention.

 

Personally I think it will have little impact compared to the, hopefully, 200 innings next season.

 

 

 

What is so important about opening day 2014? They won't be contenders next season. The important date is opening day 2015, which in itself is pretty optimistic. Unless of course Ryan decides to go out and add legitimate talent via FA this offseason but I think we both know how that will turn out.

 

Oh yes, let's already punt on next year as well. How do you propose that he's going to hit 200 innings next year if he's not with the club on opening day, and effective enough to hit 200 innings?

 

Let's not really see if he's legit or not before we absolutely have to do so, how about until 2015 when we know/don't know? we'll be competitive? The year he turns 28! Hey, it worked for Deduno! That way, we can get another 2 years, or even 3 if we avoid Super 2 and wait until June of 2015. Heck, we have to be considerate to the affiliates, why not let's make him the King of AAAA pitchers?

[twinstalker]

My guess is there is an inherent statistical bias in your numbers arising from your choice of starting point. That is, I'll wager you chose the best place to start for Gibson.

[Mike Sixel]

How are AAA innings less stressful? If it is number of pitches, put him on a pitch count. Can someone explain how throwing the ball in AAA hurts your arm less than in the majors?

 

Can someone explain why he is not up here? He's probably better than 2 or 4 of the guys here. he's healthy, or they would not let him pitch in AAA. He's 25, so it's not about control.

[nicksaviking]

I think that is the first time anyone has ever called me a front office defender.

 

I appologize for the derogatory label, I actually wasn't speaking specifically to you, I was addressing everyone on the board who appeared to believe Gibson should not be in the rotation currently.

[twinsnorth49]

Let's not really see if he's legit or not before we absolutely have to do so, how about until 2015 when we know/don't know? we'll be competitive?

 

This is the essence of it for me. Bring him up here this year and see if he can be effective and see how his stuff translates to the big hitters, instead of hitching the wagon to him in the off-season, without really knowing and risk having him fall flat on his face early on and once again have very little in the way of a backup plan.

 

If he really is better than two thirds of this rotation right now, then what the hell are we waiting for? Albers too, give him the stage, the warm-up band has been on long enough, nobody's really all that interested anyway.

[nicksaviking]

My guess is there is an inherent statistical bias in your numbers arising from your choice of starting point. That is, I'll wager you chose the best place to start for Gibson.

 

And exactly which numbers would be your starting point? Pull up their stats yourself, any way you slice it Gibson has been the better pitcher over the last month. Heck over the last ten starts.

[jimbo92107]

You're all missing a vital factor here. If you bring up Gibson and Albers, this decimates the Rochester pitching staff. Terry Ryan doesn't want to do that, right in the middle of a fairly good season.

[twinsnorth49]

You're all missing a vital factor here. If you bring up Gibson and Albers, this decimates the Rochester pitching staff. Terry Ryan doesn't want to do that, right in the middle of a fairly good season.

 

Why? Pelfrey and Walters would do just fine down there.

[beckmt]

Twins pitching has not been that bad the last few weeks. It is the hitting that is an issue. Let it ride for now and see what happens later. Starting pitchers are going deeper into the games and that will help the bullpen in the future. We do not need any new issues in the rotation, which will tax the bullpen.

[nicksaviking]

Terry Ryan. Why don't you call him and identify yourself as a Senior Member All-Star poster at Twins Daily? It's not like you're Jim Callis or Sid, but it might work.

 

Are you saying no one on this site knows of a legit reasons to keep him down? Or are you saying don't second guess the front office unless you are a 94-year-old butt-kisser?

 

Twins pitching has not been that bad the last few weeks. It is the hitting that is an issue. Let it ride for now and see what happens later. Starting pitchers are going deeper into the games and that will help the bullpen in the future. We do not need any new issues in the rotation, which will tax the bullpen.

 

Right, but most of us agreed at the start of the season that none of these place-holder pitchers should be able to justifiably block the top prospects. This was part of the reason people were disappointed with the Correia 2-year-deal. Will the Twins actually justify keeping the top prospects out of the pitcture due to vets being under contract?

 

If next year Sano is in the same position, are we to be satisfied with Plouffe simply because he's adaquate?

[Mike Sixel]

Comment From mike wants wins

Kyle Gibson, still in the minors….is there any good explanation for this?

 

[TABLE]

[TD=class: chat_time]12:09[/TD]

[TD=class: chat_desc]Dan Szymborski: The Twins actually believe they don’t have the room for him right now.

 

[/TD]

[/TABLE]

 

[TABLE]

[TD=class: chat_time]12:09[/TD]

[TD=class: chat_desc]Dan Szymborski: Which is kind of cute, like your 400-pound, bald friend that think he’s a ladies man.

 

[/TD]

[/TABLE]

 

[TABLE]

[TD=class: chat_time]12:10[/TD]

[TD=class: chat_desc]Dan Szymborski: My theory is that the Twins are worried that if Gibson strikes out batters, it could confuse the rest of the pitching staff.

[/TD]

[/TABLE]

[Brock Beauchamp]

Comment From mike wants wins

Kyle Gibson, still in the minors….is there any good explanation for this?

 

[TABLE]

[TD=class: chat_time]12:09[/TD]

[TD=class: chat_desc]Dan Szymborski: The Twins actually believe they don’t have the room for him right now.

[/TD]

[/TABLE]

 

[TABLE]

[TD=class: chat_time]12:09[/TD]

[TD=class: chat_desc]Dan Szymborski: Which is kind of cute, like your 400-pound, bald friend that think he’s a ladies man.

[/TD]

[/TABLE]

 

[TABLE]

[TD=class: chat_time]12:10[/TD]

[TD=class: chat_desc]Dan Szymborski: My theory is that the Twins are worried that if Gibson strikes out batters, it could confuse the rest of the pitching staff. [/TD]

[/TABLE]

 

Hilarious.

[Oxtung]

Nick asked for what negative consequences would be incurred by not calling him up. I noticed you didn't answer that question...

 

If he's not going to get the ~55-60 innings he has left on his limited schedule, with the Twins this year, than they may as well protect his arb value yet again in 2014. Maybe by one year from today, we can take the chance and oh so gingerly see if he's ready to implement the "long term plan" most efficiently!

 

Jokin, please read my posts before you respond to me. You have aggressively tried to back me into a corner of your making. Unfortunately for you I made almost none of the claims you are trying to attribute to me. I will respond to the few points that actually apply to my posts.

 

2014 is a lost year unless Ryan is aggressive in FA this offseason and brings in considerable talent. Since I think we both agree that isn't going to happen we are really preparing for opening day 2015 and more likely 2016 before we are competitive.

 

I think that Gibson will be in the rotation opening day of 2014, barring injury, and I think he will get the whole year to show what he has unless he completely collapses. Perhaps he won't reach 200 innings, like I said we hope he does.

 

Here is an example of what I'm trying to say. Perkins came up for 29 innings in 2007. However it would take another two seasons and 250 innings of starting before the Twins finally made the realization that Perkins was not a part of their future rotation plans. In the end those 29 innings meant almost nothing. That will also be true of however many innings Gibson throws this year.

 

I'll reiterate once again, I don't mind if Gibson is called up. I just think in the big picture it means very little to his career and to the Twins future if he is.

[twinsnorth49]

Terry Ryan. Why don't you call him and identify yourself as a Senior Member All-Star poster at Twins Daily? It's not like you're Jim Callis or Sid, but it might work.

 

It would sure as hell beat whoever's advice got them this current rotation.

[jay]

Why does it seem like the assumption is that Gibson won't pitch at all for the Twins this year? The main argument for bringing him up this very second is to get him MLB experience. The Super-2 deadline passed within the last couple of DAYS. Every last registered poster here would be shocked if he doesn't see MLB time this year.

 

He'll be here. Soon. He'll get his MLB experience this year.

 

We seem to get really worked up and lose focus over a matter of weeks or 2 months at worse. I have to side with Oxtung here. This isn't an issue. If he's still pitching well and we're in September, I'll be with the rest of you... pitchforks and all.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Why does it seem like the assumption is that Gibson won't pitch at all for the Twins this year? The main argument for bringing him up this very second is to get him MLB experience. The Super-2 deadline passed within the last couple of DAYS. Every last registered poster here would be shocked if he doesn't see MLB time this year.

 

He'll be here. Soon. He'll get his MLB experience this year.

 

We seem to get really worked up and lose focus over a matter of weeks or 2 months at worse. I have to side with Oxtung here. This isn't an issue. If he's still pitching well and we're in September, I'll be with the rest of you... pitchforks and all.

 

Gibson is on an innings count this season. That's why it matters.

 

I was all for letting Kyle get some AAA innings under his belt. I think it was a prudent decision.

 

But he doesn't need 100 AAA innings. That's just dumb.