Business of Baseball: Gibson, Hicks, Arcia

[drjim]

Misses the Rays point. They appear to want their prized talent on the field ASAP, to maximize the still-undetermined "ceiling potential" added to potential trade value. I think they think they are better off having a talented, but inexperienced player on the roster with large, and potentially growing, trade value over a higher-priced veteran with shrinking trade value.

 

I'm not sure this is true. The Rays certainly have had elite prospects that they move quickly (as any team would), but they are generally in the Twins class when it comes to patience. The Rays would rather wait and have the peak years be in a Rays uniform before they trade them.

 

Look no further than Will Myers, this is the opposite of getting him on the field ASAP.

[Kwak]

I never understood how the agents were able to sneak the "Bonus Baby" rule back into the system in the first place. The players union must have been asleep there for awhile.

You are mistaken! Amateurs aren't in the union (yet). Preventing draftees from signing huge contracts with roster status favors existing ML players both in available salary dollars and in roster spots.

[jokin]

You are mistaken! Amateurs aren't in the union (yet). Preventing draftees from signing huge contracts with roster status favors existing ML players both in available salary dollars and in roster spots.

 

Amateurs aren't in the union, but the members of the Players Union are, and with only so many dollars available year-over-year, why would they want potential major league dollars that "should" be going to free agent vets tied up in unproven and possibly bust-level talent?

[diehardtwinsfan]

Misses the Rays point. They appear to want their prized talent on the field ASAP, to maximize the still-undetermined "ceiling potential" added to potential trade value. I think they think they are better off having a talented, but inexperienced player on the roster with large, and potentially growing, trade value over a higher-priced veteran with shrinking trade value.

 

Putting a guy in the bigs sooner than he should be won't grow the trade value of his contract nearly as much as it would if he was dominating at successively higher levels...

 

Putting him up early wastes service time. And service time is one biggest contributors to trade value.

[jokin]

Putting a guy in the bigs sooner than he should be won't grow the trade value of his contract nearly as much as it would if he was dominating at successively higher levels...

 

Putting him up early wastes service time. And service time is one biggest contributors to trade value.

 

Not in the Rays financial position, service time is a secondary concern. They have a long history to move guys up that they've identified with talent and then look to move them while either just entering their prime or in it, often before their ceiling has been established, to better themselves in the process, rather than letting players just walk away. The exception to the rule, BJ Upton, turned down the Rays QO (and the Rays couldn't get anyone to give them their customary one-sided deal before he became a FA), so they again made the smart move, to Atlanta's long-term detriment.

[Guest USAFChief]

Putting a guy in the bigs sooner than he should be won't grow the trade value of his contract nearly as much as it would if he was dominating at successively higher levels...

 

Putting him up early wastes time. And service time is one biggest contributors to trade value.

Service time is pretty inconsequential as far as trade value is concerned.

 

The kind of team looking to trade for David Price isn't worried about service time. A contract extension is going to be a given, so service time isn't even a factor.

[drjim]

Service time is pretty inconsequential as far as trade value is concerned.

 

The kind of team looking to trade for David Price isn't worried about service time. A contract extension is going to be a given, so service time isn't even a factor.

 

It is definitely a factor, as the more years Price is away from free agency the cheaper the extension will be for those years. Those millions saved have value to franchise and influence the package they would give up.

[jay]

Service time is pretty inconsequential as far as trade value is concerned.

 

The kind of team looking to trade for David Price isn't worried about service time. A contract extension is going to be a given, so service time isn't even a factor.

 

You're right about the extension, but service time is absolutely consequential. If it wasn't, why would they be considering trading him 2 years out from free agency? It's the many millions difference from the salary he'll end up getting that directly affects his trade value.

[Guest USAFChief]

You're right about the extension, but service time is absolutely consequential. If it wasn't, why would they be considering trading him 2 years out from free agency? It's the many millions difference from the salary he'll end up getting that directly affects his trade value.

Because Tampa doesn't want to pay for those two years.

 

The team trading for him isn't concerned about that salary, they're going to pay for an extension. So the two years of service time is moot, and adds no value to the trade value.

[ThePuck]

Kevin Gausman is due to start Thursday for Baltimore.

[jay]

Because Tampa doesn't want to pay for those two years.

 

The team trading for him isn't concerned about that salary, they're going to pay for an extension. So the two years of service time is moot, and adds no value to the trade value.

 

He's making $10m this year and let's call it $15m, then $20m before becoming a free agent. When he does get traded and signs that extension, he'll be making closer to $30m for 2016 and beyond. If the gaining team gets him this year, they aren't going to pay that full value $30m until it covers the seasons beyond his arbitration years (you see this in extensions all the time) -- hence they get to pay significantly less than his true market value until that point. We're probably talking $15-20m in savings from his true value.

 

Team thrive on positive net value -- getting more production from a player than they are paying for. If you can't see how those savings during arbitration years provide trade value, then I guess I'm at a loss...

[Mike Sixel]

Kevin Gausman is due to start Thursday for Baltimore.

 

I so want to reply to this, but am unable to do so maturely.....

[ThePuck]

I so want to reply to this, but am unable to do so maturely.....

 

send me a message, want to read it:-)

[ThePuck]

Before the start of minor league play in 2012, Machado had just finished playing playing A+ ball and headed for AA (after ONE season in the minors). He was the 11th ranked prospect in baseball by Baseball America. In August 2012 he was in the majors.

 

Before the start of minor league play in 2012, Sano had just finished playing rookie ball and was headed to A ball (after two seasons of ball). He was the 18th ranked prospect by Baseball America.

 

He still isn't in double A.

[Brad Swanson]

Before the start of minor league play in 2012, Machado had just finished playing playing A+ ball and headed for AA (after ONE season in the minors). He was the 11th ranked prospect in baseball by Baseball America. In August 2012 he was in the majors.

 

Before the start of minor league play in 2012, Sano had just finished playing rookie ball and was headed to A ball (after two seasons of ball). He was the 18th ranked prospect by Baseball America.

 

He still isn't in double A.

 

Machado is better than Sano, simple as that. He was a better prospect and he is a better player. He is a more advanced hitter and fielder. Sano has more power, but is still working through contact issues. Sano doesn't have an MLB position and Machado has several. The Orioles were also a contending team last year, and the Twins aren't right now.

 

Machado is the youngest player in the American League. He's a freak; he's an outlier.

[ThePuck]

Machado is better than Sano, simple as that. He was a better prospect and he is a better player. He is a more advanced hitter and fielder. Sano has more power, but is still working through contact issues. Sano doesn't have an MLB position and Machado has several. The Orioles were also a contending team last year, and the Twins aren't right now.

 

Machado is the youngest player in the American League. He's a freak; he's an outlier.

 

I'm not looking at age at all...I am however looking at the obscene numbers Sano keeps putting up and wondering why AA hasn't happened yet. I don't think I'm alone in wondering about that.

 

On a side not, Wil Meyers going into 2012, was ranked as the 28th prospect.

[Brad Swanson]

I'm not looking at age at all...I am however looking at the obscene numbers Sano keeps putting up and wondering why AA hasn't happened yet. I don't think I'm alone in wondering about that.

 

He's been in A ball for 40 some games. He has obvious parts of his game that still need work. It's possible that a part of the reason why he has developed so well is that the Twins have been patient with him and have made him spend a little extra time at the lower levels. He just turned 20, why is there a rush to get him to Minnesota?

[ThePuck]

He's been in A ball for 40 some games. He has obvious parts of his game that still need work. It's possible that a part of the reason why he has developed so well is that the Twins have been patient with him and have made him spend a little extra time at the lower levels. He just turned 20, why is there a rush to get him to Minnesota?

 

What constitutes rushing in your opinion? This is his 4th season in the minors. He's not in AA yet. What is rushing, exactly?

[Mike Sixel]

For me, the rush to get him in MN is that they stink, for the third year in a row. I'd like them not to stink. I think he's more ready than some here think. I think he's a special player, very special. I think he can continue to learn 3B at AA. I think the jump to AA is hard, and I want him to start that sooner, rather than later. And no, I don't think he's ready for MLB yet, but I think he's a lot closer than some others think.

[jay]

What constitutes rushing in your opinion? This is his 4th season in the minors. He's not in AA yet. What is rushing, exactly?

 

Rushing him would be advancing him to levels that he's not ready for. His power might be MLB ready, but the rest of his game needs to develop. Brad has already highlighted the ways that Machado was more advanced and where Sano needs to improve.

 

Sano has more power, but is still working through contact issues. Sano doesn't have an MLB position and Machado has several.

[IdahoPilgrim]

What constitutes rushing in your opinion? This is his 4th season in the minors. He's not in AA yet. What is rushing, exactly?

 

My guess is this was a reference to his age (20), not his minor league service time.

 

I think one can make a legitimate case either way. Yes, after 4 years of minor league service you would normally expect a player to be knocking on the door of the bigs, particularly a top prospect.

 

But normally, you don't start your minor league career when you are 16. There is still physical growth and development that takes place during that time, not just baseball growth and development. So I can see his point about not seeing someone who is just now 20 being seen as held back.

[ThePuck]

My guess is this was a reference to his age (20), not his minor league service time.

 

I don't think so...if you read his previous post, he clearly wondered if I was thinking of age (which I wasn't ) and that it was smart the Twins weren't.

 

edit, that part of his post is now edited.

[ThePuck]

amazing....just amazing...do we have a DH...one that actually hits well and for power? Do we have a 3B? I'm not saying Sano should be here right now, but he sure as heck shouldn't be in A+ ball still with the way he's hitting.

 

The defense of the snail approach to promotion is sometimes beyond belief. You can nitpick anyone's game and find flaws and reasons for non-promotion. Few players are the whole package.

[jay]

I'm not saying Sano should be here right now, but he sure as heck shouldn't be in A+ ball still with the way he's hitting.

 

There's a lot more to the game than being able to hit the ball very far. When should he have been in AA? To start the year? A few weeks ago? If he gets promoted mid-season, we're talking about the difference of a month or two. I guess I just don't see a big impact either way.

 

The Twins do have a prospect in low-A ball that has shown to be very well rounded in his first full season. He's an excellent option and example of a player that can move fast if he continues to succeed. I wouldn't be shocked to see him catch (or even beat) Sano on the path to MLB.

[ThePuck]

There's a lot more to the game than being able to hit the ball very far. When should he have been in AA? To start the year? A few weeks ago? If he gets promoted mid-season, we're talking about the difference of a month or two. I guess I just don't see a big impact either way.

 

The Twins do have a prospect in low-A ball that has shown to be very well rounded in his first full season. He's an excellent option and example of a player that can move fast if he continues to succeed. I wouldn't be shocked to see him catch (or even beat) Sano on the path to MLB.

 

ok..

[golfboy1]

amazing....just amazing...do we have a DH...one that actually hits well and for power? Do we have a 3B? I'm not saying Sano should be here right now, but he sure as heck shouldn't be in A+ ball still with the way he's hitting.

 

The defense of the snail approach to promotion is sometimes beyond belief. You can nitpick anyone's game and find flaws and reasons for non-promotion. Few players are the whole package.

 

 

After last season Sano should have started in A+, there is no way he should have started higher. He's been killing it at A+ so I would expect/hope they promote him to AA in the near future but I don't think it makes much difference if they wait until after the June draft, which is likely.

 

Machado is a rare exception, not the norm. He's a fantastic prospect..(compared to A-Rod as a teenagee)r. Baltimore had a need at 3rd & he's a superior defender...something Sano isn't. Plus, Baltimore was in a playoff race so there was a much better reason to promote him & Bundy.

 

I'm not against pushing prospects but to say.. "The Twins suck, lets see how our prospects in A & AA would do in the majors" isn't a good solution(IMHO).

[ThePuck]

After last season Sano should have started in A+, there is no way he should have started higher. He's been killing it at A+ so I would expect/hope they promote him to AA in the near future but I don't think it makes much difference if they wait until after the June draft, which is likely.

 

Machado is a rare exception, not the norm. He's a fantastic prospect..(compared to A-Rod as a teenagee)r. Baltimore had a need at 3rd & he's a superior defender...something Sano isn't. Plus, Baltimore was in a playoff race so there was a much better reason to promote him & Bundy.

 

I'm not against pushing prospects but to say.. "The Twins suck, lets see how our prospects in A & AA would do in the majors" isn't a good solution(IMHO).

 

I don't remember saying that...why is everything an extreme one way or another around here?

[IdahoPilgrim]

I think Sano will get promoted, but my guess is it will wait until the Miracle have wrapped up the first half championship and guaranteed a playoff spot.

 

And that is not an inconsequential consideration. Yes, the primary consideration has to be player development, getting them ready for the major league club. But maintaining good relations with your affiliates is also good business sense. The club started red-hot, but has tapered off a bit. I can see the Twins keeping Sano there, to prevent a first-half collapse, for the benefit of the local team. The magic number for the Miracle is at 20 - once that has been reached, I can see them moving him rather quickly.

 

Just a guess.

[Brad Swanson]

I don't remember saying that...why is everything an extreme one way or another around here?

 

Perhaps I was getting too bogged down in the specific Machado example. I do feel that the argument that the Twins hold their prospects back is a bit overstated. You can look at Oswaldo Arcia and see a pretty good example of a guy who moved quickly once he reached A ball. The Twins tend to be conservative at lower levels, but have shown the willingness to move players quicker when they get older and get to higher levels.

 

I can see the want to move Sano and other exciting prospects closer to Minnesota. That is where we will all get to watch them. I think that Sano could still end this season in AA and then start next season at AAA or even in Minnesota.

[Mike Sixel]

Everyone keeps saying Machado is some kind of aberration....of the top 10 in WAR last year, 7 were up before they were 22 (if I remember the mini study I did right). Elite players come up earlier than regular players, and Sano is an elite player, imo. I can redo that work again if people want, or do it for more years.....but elite players come up at 19-22 years old, because they are elite and ready and teams want them up here producing.