Business of Baseball: Gibson, Hicks, Arcia

[Seth Stohs]

My issue with Hicks all along has been that I don't feel he should be sent to AAA as a form of punishment for his poor play. The Twins made the decision to jump him past AAA and they had to know it would be a rough transition. I don't see a player in AAA who will honestly help the Twins team, so the punishment makes no sense as a baseball decision either.

 

If the team (or fans) want Hicks sent to AAA for seasoning or a confidence boost or whatever, then I can understand that point of view. I feel that some want Hicks sent to AAA because he is "killing the Twins" and I just don't see it that way and I don't think replacing him with Clete Thomas or Antoan Richardson will do anything to remedy that particular issue.

 

I don't think it would or should be considered a "Punishment." A punishment is getting benched. A punishment is getting scolded for not doing something 'correctly.' Optioning a player who is hitting .150 is about doing what's best for his development.

[Seth Stohs]

How many people in here would have said Manny Machado was ready for the majors based on his age and his minor league numbers? Anyone think he'd even be in AA with us by now based on his numbers and his age?

 

Machado is a fun example, and maybe Buxton or Sano can come up young and have that kind of impact. But, when Machado was promoted, he put up numbers, and obviously this year, he's putting up tremendous numbers.

 

Therein lies the difference... Aaron Hicks is not putting up numbers. He's struggling mightily. Sending him down isn't saying that he can't be a great player. It's saying, work on these things, clear your mind, come back and then do it. It worked with Hunter. It worked with Morneau. It isn't a negative to be sent down for seasoning.

[Mike Sixel]

Machado is a fun example, and maybe Buxton or Sano can come up young and have that kind of impact. But, when Machado was promoted, he put up numbers, and obviously this year, he's putting up tremendous numbers.

 

Therein lies the difference... Aaron Hicks is not putting up numbers. He's struggling mightily. Sending him down isn't saying that he can't be a great player. It's saying, work on these things, clear your mind, come back and then do it. It worked with Hunter. It worked with Morneau. It isn't a negative to be sent down for seasoning.

 

I think you missed the point....Buxton and Sano sit in A ball, while Machado is up. Name the great Twins they've developed in teh last 5 years, the process is NOT working.

[ThePuck]

Machado is a fun example, and maybe Buxton or Sano can come up young and have that kind of impact. But, when Machado was promoted, he put up numbers, and obviously this year, he's putting up tremendous numbers.

 

Therein lies the difference... Aaron Hicks is not putting up numbers. He's struggling mightily. Sending him down isn't saying that he can't be a great player. It's saying, work on these things, clear your mind, come back and then do it. It worked with Hunter. It worked with Morneau. It isn't a negative to be sent down for seasoning.

 

Seth, did you look at his minor league numbers? My question is, for all those who relentlessly defend the slower pace the Twins have with their prospects, how many would have even THOUGHT he was ready, based on age and minor league numbers? Kid had two full seasons in the minors...didn't have an OPS over .790 in either. His BA and OBP in the minors, nothing to write home about, yet he kept getting promoted and skipped AAA...

[Brad Swanson]

I think you missed the point....Buxton and Sano sit in A ball, while Machado is up. Name the great Twins they've developed in teh last 5 years, the process is NOT working.

 

I think there is some difference between Buxton and Machado and definitely a difference between Sano and Machado. Machado has a more refined pedigree. He played USA baseball for a couple seasons, and was a year younger when drafted. Machado played 38 games at low A in his first full season, then spent the rest of the year at high A. He played nearly a full season at AA before being called up last season.

 

Buxton has played 42 games at low A, and who knows, he could get a promotion to high A soon and spend the rest of the season there. Then, he may play 100 games at AA next year and be in Minnesota in August.

 

Sano has a lot to work on. He has huge power, but he still needs to work on hitting and defense. Machado didn't have holes like those. The questions about him were whether he would stay at short long-term, and when he was called up to play third, those questions were not relevant.

 

I think it is a bit unfair to compare Twins' prospects to Machado in the first place, as Machado was a really great prospect and in the last five years, the Twins have had no one on his level. Buxton might be on his level, but he's only had 42 games of full-season baseball so far.

[jay]

Seth, did you look at his minor league numbers? My question is, for all those who relentlessly defend the slower pace the Twins have with their prospects, how many would have even THOUGHT he was ready, based on age and minor league numbers? Kid had two full seasons in the minors...didn't have an OPS over .790 in either. His BA and OBP in the minors, nothing to write home about, yet he kept getting promoted and skipped AAA...

 

So, what exactly is the point? That the Twins should move their prospects faster? Aaron Hicks didn't have mindblowing numbers and the Twins let him skip AAA, but get blasted for that just the same. Arcia played a handful of games at AAA. Joe Mauer skipped AAA. I think it's more so a matter of having players with impactful talent... which we just haven't had the last few years. With the prospects we now have in the system, it wouldn't be unreasonable to see some prospects moving at different paces than we've seen recently.

[ThePuck]

So, what exactly is the point? That the Twins should move their prospects faster? Aaron Hicks didn't have mindblowing numbers and the Twins let him skip AAA, but get blasted for that just the same. Arcia played a handful of games at AAA. Joe Mauer skipped AAA. I think it's more so a matter of having players with impactful talent... which we just haven't had the last few years. With the prospects we now have in the system, it wouldn't be unreasonable to see some prospects moving at different paces than we've seen recently.

 

Who would have recognized the impactful talent of Machado based on his numbers and age. Who would have been saying, forget the numbers, bring him up, skip AA, the 20 year old can handle it?

[Mike Sixel]

I think there is some difference between Buxton and Machado and definitely a difference between Sano and Machado. Machado has a more refined pedigree. He played USA baseball for a couple seasons, and was a year younger when drafted. Machado played 38 games at low A in his first full season, then spent the rest of the year at high A. He played nearly a full season at AA before being called up last season.

 

Buxton has played 42 games at low A, and who knows, he could get a promotion to high A soon and spend the rest of the season there. Then, he may play 100 games at AA next year and be in Minnesota in August.

 

Sano has a lot to work on. He has huge power, but he still needs to work on hitting and defense. Machado didn't have holes like those. The questions about him were whether he would stay at short long-term, and when he was called up to play third, those questions were not relevant.

 

I think it is a bit unfair to compare Twins' prospects to Machado in the first place, as Machado was a really great prospect and in the last five years, the Twins have had no one on his level. Buxton might be on his level, but he's only had 42 games of full-season baseball so far.

 

 

Or they could move Sano to RF or 1B, and promote him. Or, they can just keep his power in the minors while they try to make him into a 3B. And, Buxton and Sano are both top 10 in the minors for prospects, that's pretty much the same thing as Machado.

 

Again, if the process they use is working so well, where are all the players in the majors?

[IdahoPilgrim]

How many people in here would have said Manny Machado was ready for the majors based on his age and his minor league numbers? Anyone think he'd even be in AA with us by now based on his numbers and his age?

 

The problem I have with quoting an isolated example is that, by itself, it never gives you a picture of the whole. Anecdotal evidence is always fun, but never probative. I would be curious, and if this posted somewhere else I would like to know it, what the cumulative numbers are for each franchise on average length of minor league service at time of first MLB appearance. That could even be broken down, i.e. drafted college pitchers, drafted high school batters, etc.

 

On a more general note, thank you all for an informative discussion - it's nice to read a thread that truly gives all sides of an issue without falling hopelessly into bashing.

[gunnarthor]

Who would have recognized the impactful talent of Machado based on his numbers and age. Who would have been saying, forget the numbers, bring him up?

 

Probably the scouts. There was a reason he was considered such a great prospect by pretty much everyone in baseball.

[Mike Sixel]

Well, somone posted that 52 or 62 players are in the majors from the last four drafts.....and not many are Twins.....

[Brad Swanson]

Or they could move Sano to RF or 1B, and promote him. Or, they can just keep his power in the minors while they try to make him into a 3B. And, Buxton and Sano are both top 10 in the minors for prospects, that's pretty much the same thing as Machado.

 

Again, if the process they use is working so well, where are all the players in the majors?

 

I'm not really defending their process, I just think Machado is a very unique example. He was an advanced teenage prospect and clearly is already one of the better players in all of baseball. While Buxton and Sano are great prospects, they do not fit that profile.

 

Even though this will somewhat contradict my feelings from earlier parts of this thread, aren't Hicks and Arcia up at relatively young ages? Each is struggling and many want them sent back to the Minors.

 

I'd prefer to keep Sano at 3rd for at least the rest of this season. It sounds like he is improving somewhat and his value as a 3rd baseman would be immense. I would definitely not be in favor of promoting him and sending him to a new position at the same time. That seems like a really dangerous combo.

[ThePuck]

Probably the scouts. There was a reason he was considered such a great prospect by pretty much everyone in baseball.

 

I was asking about people here. I was clear about that.

[gunnarthor]

The problem I have with quoting an isolated example is that, by itself, it never gives you a picture of the whole. Anecdotal evidence is always fun, but never probative. I would be curious, and if this posted somewhere else I would like to know it, what the cumulative numbers are for each franchise on average length of minor league service at time of first MLB appearance. That could even be broken down, i.e. drafted college pitchers, drafted high school batters, etc.

 

On a more general note, thank you all for an informative discussion - it's nice to read a thread that truly gives all sides of an issue without falling hopelessly into bashing.

 

There has been a study, sorry I don't have a link for it, and it showed that the Twins were pretty much the slowest when it came to minor leaguers. The problem with the study is that it weighed each player the same so Trevor Plouffe spent 8 seasons in the minors it skewed the Twins list older. Other orgs might have given up on a guy like Plouffe or Watkins etc.

 

The Twins have promoted people fast - Mauer, Arcia, Garza, Gibson (before his injury). And they've had guys wait until they were 25 or older to settle in - Koskie, Plouffe, Blackburn.

 

I don't think it's as big a problem as others apparently do. We haven't had many top prospects but most of them - Mauer, Liriano, Garza, Kubel were on fast tracks.

[IdahoPilgrim]

Well, somone posted that 52 or 62 players are in the majors from the last four drafts.....and not many are Twins.....

 

Well, OK, using those numbers, that means on average roughly 2 players per organization drafted in the last four years have made the majors.

 

For the Twins, that's Dozier and Herrmann (and Gibson would have been there if not for the injury and will be there soon).

 

Just using this data, it doesn't look to me that we are significantly behind the pace of other franchises.

[Mike Sixel]

The problem was just stated, they haven't had many top prospects.

 

Hicks has never been viewed in the same way as Buxton and Sano. Heck, some teams wanted to make him a pitcher. Same with Arcia. Sano could be hitting in AA or AAA or maybe even the majors right now. They'd rather have him practice being a 3B. That's their choice, but it does not mean people can't be frustrated by that. NONE of this fandom stuff is rational.....none of it.

[ThePuck]

What would be considered fast? Is it by amount of seasons, age of player, or is fast dependent on how it fits an argument?

 

Arcia spent 5+ seasons in the minors...is that fast cause he's only 22 now, or is it fast cause 5+ seasons is fast?

 

I believe many/most people, when talking about the slower promotion rate, concern themselves more with position players than pitchers, as opposed to college pitchers...

[Mike Sixel]

Ya, for a team that refuses to use FA to get good players, being happy with Dozier and Hermann is awesome.

 

If your entire strategy is built on drafting and developing players, you have to be A LOT better than the other teams, or your strategy does not work.

[gunnarthor]

The problem was just stated, they haven't had many top prospects.

 

Hicks has never been viewed in the same way as Buxton and Sano. Heck, some teams wanted to make him a pitcher. Same with Arcia. Sano could be hitting in AA or AAA or maybe even the majors right now. They'd rather have him practice being a 3B. That's their choice, but it does not mean people can't be frustrated by that. NONE of this fandom stuff is rational.....none of it.

 

Honest question. Would you rather Sano made it to the majors for good a year earlier but was forced to be a RF or would you rather he made it as a 3B, even if it meant waiting a year? I don't know if there's a wrong answer but I'd prefer the Twins try and make it work for him at third b/c we have a lot of guys who can hit well and take a corner OF spot. But we haven't had a quality offensive and defensive 3B since Koskie.

 

The answer might be different if you've already decided that he can't play third but for this question, assume with an extra year of work, he could.

[Mike Sixel]

If I knew with say, 80% certainty, he could stay at thrid, I'd be ok with 1 more year. But: a: I don't believe he can; b: I don't think the TWINS will only wait one more year.

 

It's a bit of a trick question, though. Because if they had moved him to RF last year, he'd have been in high A last year, and now might be in AA this year, and in the majors next.......Now, we are looking at how long in A ball, how long in AA ball, how long in AAA ball?

 

Really, I think if they had moved him to RF last year, he could be starting next year for the Twins. If your scenario means 2016, instead of late 2014, then no, I don't want to wait.

[golfboy1]

Or they could move Sano to RF or 1B, and promote him. Or, they can just keep his power in the minors while they try to make him into a 3B. And, Buxton and Sano are both top 10 in the minors for prospects, that's pretty much the same thing as Machado.

 

Again, if the process they use is working so well, where are all the players in the majors?

 

Where do you want them to promote Sano to? I think it's likely they will send him to AA at some point this season but most "experts" think he needs to work on his fielding & the fact he still strikes out a ton. He's certainly not ready for a higher level.

 

Buxton ...like Machado,Trout & Harper could easily be the exception to the rule & move fast but most prospects that the Twins have had don't fit that scenerio. I think it's safe to say that taking the slow approach helped Span & Hunter develop into solid players & pushing them faster would have had a negative impact on them. I think Hicks would be better off with that approach.

 

The biggest problem is starting pitching....you can't hit enough to overcome the crappy SP the Twins have. At least the future looks better than it did a year ago. Gibson, Meyer, Mays, Berrios & several others have a chance to be solid starters but I don't think rushing them is going to be a long term benefit.

[Brad Swanson]

I think we might be overestimating Sano as a hitter right now too. While he might run into 25-30 home runs at the MLB level, I'd guess he'd be hitting about .200 in doing so. He still has areas of his offensive game that he needs to work on.

[IdahoPilgrim]

This thread got me curious, so I quickly went back and using info on baseball-reference.com on the last 4 drafts found the following.

 

# of players drafted in the last 4 years in rounds 1-10 who have major league experience:

9: Detroit, Los Angeles AL

6: San Diego

5: Colorado, Milwaukee, Seattle, Texas, Toronto

4: Arizona, Chicago NL, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Washington

3: Atlanta, Chicago AL, St. Louis

2: Baltimore, Boston, Kansas City, Minnesota, Tampa

1: Houston, Los Angeles NL, Miami, New York AL, New York NL, Oakland, Pittsburgh, San Francisco

 

I know I'm missing somebody, but I've got a staff meeting and don't have time to track it down. In any case, it looks like Minnesota is slightly below the curve in developing talent but not at the bottom.

[TheLeviathan]

This thread got me curious, so I quickly went back and using info on baseball-reference.com on the last 4 drafts found the following.

 

# of players drafted in the last 4 years in rounds 1-10 who have major league experience:

9: Detroit, Los Angeles AL

6: San Diego

5: Colorado, Milwaukee, Seattle, Texas, Toronto

4: Arizona, Chicago NL, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Washington

3: Atlanta, Chicago AL, St. Louis

2: Baltimore, Boston, Kansas City, Minnesota, Tampa

1: Houston, Los Angeles NL, Miami, New York AL, New York NL, Oakland, Pittsburgh, San Francisco

 

I know I'm missing somebody, but I've got a staff meeting and don't have time to track it down. In any case, it looks like Minnesota is slightly below the curve in developing talent but not at the bottom.

 

I don't mean to totally undermine what you're doing here but one thing to consider is that only taking the last four years leaves the issue of poor drafting to undermine conclusions. For example, if you picked another four year period you might find Pitt or Oak is aggressive (just examples) because the talent they drafted warranted it.

 

It may be helpful to do this over a longer stretch. Personally, I don't get caught up in all this. Do what's right by the player - whatever that might be. Call them up quick, make them take eight years, screw service time, etc. - do what's best for the player's long term ability to help the team. I think that is far more case-by-case than this discussion is taking account for.

[Shane Wahl]

With regard to promotions and whatnot, I get the sense that many people ignore the various contingencies in promoting players and just assume that X player is going to be a bit worse after a promotion. Who knows--promoting Sano to AA might make him go off offensively. Players can have all sorts of issues with various coaches, climates, and surroundings from level to level. And promotions also serve as big votes of confidence.

 

Machado might be an extreme example of that. I don't think he had a minor league season where he put up the numbers he is putting up now in the majors, right?

 

For the record, Sano still doesn't really have a position so that is an issue. Buxton could be on a faster pace because there is not a lot left to be desired with him. Like . . . very little.

[Shane Wahl]

By the way, Sano's defense at third is returning to form after an OK start. I would be in favor of a move to first base (I know that "wastes" his arm, but there is no hole in the OF by 2014).

[ThePuck]

By the way, Sano's defense at third is returning to form after an OK start. I would be in favor of a move to first base (I know that "wastes" his arm, but there is no hole in the OF by 2014).

 

If he's fearless like Pujols, that arm would come in handy at 1B. Pujols set the assist record for 1Bs because of that arm and fearlessness. Turned himself into a top notch 1B overall.

 

On a side note, is it my imagination or do we have a bunch of guys we want to push to 1B, DH or corner OF spots and not nearly enough people to play the more skilled spots...

[Seth Stohs]

Alright, MWW, you win... call up Buxton and Sano right now... I'm good with that.

[jay]

By the way, Sano's defense at third is returning to form after an OK start. I would be in favor of a move to first base (I know that "wastes" his arm, but there is no hole in the OF by 2014).

 

I think 1B is the last move. We can say there's no OF hole in the future, but that also makes the dangerous assumption that prospects pan out. There's no reason not to put him in RF if 3B isn't working, especially with the porch out there in TF that hides some range. He can make the transition to 1B quickly if it comes to that with depth or continued defense issues.

[Mike Sixel]

I think we might be overestimating Sano as a hitter right now too. While he might run into 25-30 home runs at the MLB level, I'd guess he'd be hitting about .200 in doing so. He still has areas of his offensive game that he needs to work on.

 

This is reasonable skepticism, btw. I would not see this being wrong, for sure.