Business of Baseball: Gibson, Hicks, Arcia

[Seth Stohs]

In spring training, there was a ton of talk about service time as it related to Aaron Hicks and if he should be on the Opening Day roster. As was discussed, there were some key dates/timelines.

 

1.) For a player not to be a free agent for an extra season,- 20 days

2.) For a player not to be a Super-2 arbitration candidate - sometime around June 5th maybe.

 

So, here is the update:

 

Aaron Hicks - would need 20 days to retain him for an extra season.

Oswaldo Arcia - would need 5 days to retain him for an extra season.

Kyle Gibson - would need about 2 more weeks in AAA to not be a Super-2 guy.

 

I know the Twins are talking about the right things, but they were never going to compete in 2013, so it makes more sense to me to be smart and keep guys around longer term when they're a little better.

 

I enjoy watching Hicks and Arcia. I can't wait to see Gibson debut. But I'm a Twins fan through and through and will be for the long term, and I want to see them better longer. That's why I'd be completely fine with Hicks spending 3 weeks (or two months) in AAA as I believe it is better for him long-term as well as for the Twins. I'm comfortable with Arcia going down for a week. And, although I think Gibson will debut in like 10 days at home against the Brewers, I would be fine with waiting two more weeks.

 

I know many disagree, but in a year where the Twins won't compete, a couple of weeks is not going to make a difference.

[Mike Sixel]

So much for "money not being an issue" for this team. Who cares if they are ever fun to watch in the present, as long as they plan for the future (which never comes, as Torii and Johann reminded us). so, ya, I disagree. This team is flooded with money, with almost no future committments at all, actually, none other than Mauer. And people are worried about money.....Gibson is 25, if Super two is an issue, who cares? The team will be Mauer and 24 minimum wage guys, how is this even an issue, for a team that cares about winning?

[johnnydakota]

would be different if the 2 outfielders were playing like Harper or Trout.

Waldo is hitting ok , but reminds me of a faster Willingham in the field , as for Mr. Hicks

he should get some time in AAA with a callup in september , if he goes down and works at his craft...

[Seth Stohs]

To be fair, Mike, the Twins did call up Hicks and Arcia without "money" being the issue. I believe they should have waited. The Twins didn't wait.

 

Gibson? He's 25, but he's still developing. He would have been up two years ago, but he had a little thing called Tommy John surgery. Like I said, I expect him to replace Hernandez in the rotation one of the next two starts. I would prefer they wait one more start beyond that, but I sense that the Twins will call him up sooner, not worrying about the Super-2 thing.

[Nick Nelson]

I thought I heard that the Super 2 arb deadline was now much later in the year, like sometime in July. I believe Gibson would need to stay in the minors much longer than two weeks to reach it. I could be wrong.

[Seth Stohs]

I thought I heard that the Super 2 arb deadline was now much later in the year, like sometime in July. I believe Gibson would need to stay in the minors much longer than two weeks to reach it. I could be wrong.

 

I hadn't heard that. Last year it was early June still... but I'm not sure.

[Mike Sixel]

I agree, Seth, they did not care about money (assuming bringing them up was about ability, not about bringing on minimum wage guys instead of vets, which I believe it was about ability) with the OFers, and I'm hoping they do that with Gibson. He's the best pitcher in their entire system, maybe not at the MLB yet, but soon. And he's certainly better than Hernandez, and likely Pelfrey, and probably Diamond and Worley too eventually. And yet, he sits in AAA, leading me to wonder at the Twins' motivation here.

 

It would be a lot easier to believe it wasn't about money if they made a move before it mattered.....otherwise there will always be doubt among those of us that believe Ryan cares more about money than winning*

 

*and no, I have never said they should spend so much they lose money, never....

[nicksaviking]

I'I would imagine since it's based on a curve, the Twins early promotions of Hicks and Arcia would actually help the Twins in that it would tilt the deadline a little earlier.

 

These situations are different though. I could care less if Gibson gets another arbitration year. On the other hand, I DON'T want to lose a year of Hicks and Arcia. Why does it seem this team bungles every situation lately?

[gunnarthor]

I think they are being unfair to Gibson. He's done everything they asked, including waiting 3 months to have TJ surgery. He's already 25 so a lot of his ML earnings power is already gone. Even if they brought him up now, he won't be a free agent until after his age 31 season so he might get one shot at a free agency lotto. Considering he's easily one of our 5 best starters and the team doesn't have major payroll commitments going forward, I think the Twins owe it to him and the fans to bring him up now, esp since they plan on only having him make 14 or so more starts this year.

 

As for Hicks and Arcia, I think the Twins have been fair to both and both could do well with some seasoning in AAA so if they decide to do that (and maybe give Benson a shot to grab a 4th OFer position), I'd be ok with that.

[jay]

Would it be unreasonable for the Twins to bring Gibson up for Hernandez's next start and if things go well, option him back to AAA when he hits his inning cap for the season? Maybe mid August?

[stringer bell]

I am not clear on Arica. He was a fairly early option in March--does it matter if he's optioned early before the teams start playing regulation games? On Hicks, I think the Twins need to first do what is right for the player. If his development could be increased by sending him to AAA, batting leadoff without the pressure of doing that as a big-league rookie, they should do it and save a year from free agency. On Gibson, I'll say it is only money. As Nick noted, there was a change that makes more 2+ guys eligible for arbitration. Gibson won't be eligible to be a Free Agent until he's well past 30, so the only bone of contention is arbitration. I'm pretty much with Seth on the outfielders, but let Gibson get his feet wet.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I know many disagree, but in a year where the Twins won't compete, a couple of weeks is not going to make a difference.

 

But by the same token, those couple weeks aren't going to make much of a difference in the future either. If these guys are any good at all, they're almost certain to sign multi-year deals covering those seasons anyway. When was the last time the Twins went year-to-year with a guy like this?

 

(And a player's salary in his last year of arbitration isn't likely to be much different than his annual salary in free agency. Heck, going year-to-year in search of savings through arbitration might cost you MORE if the player has a fluke performance spike.)

 

Moreover, any potential contract lengthening or cost savings correlate with player quality. Judging by what we have seen thus far, Hicks might be fortunate to still be a MLB regular by the time he hits free agency -- his service time should be the least of our concerns right now.

 

Arcia has obviously looked a lot better (on one side of the ball), and Gibson has promise, but I think people are forgetting that neither one of those guys ever projected to be a superstar. I think Kubel and Radke are better comps, and those guys just don't offer a lot of service time savings opportunities.

[drjim]

This thread is more evidence that no matter what the Twins front office does it will be criticized. If they call up young guys it is either too early or they are cheap because they didn't sign a veteran. If they don't call someone up they are cheap because they don't want to start the clock. Or you could take the position of judging each move individually while making sure to point out that the decision of the front office is the wrong one.

[drjim]

Would it be unreasonable for the Twins to bring Gibson up for Hernandez's next start and if things go well, option him back to AAA when he hits his inning cap for the season? Maybe mid August?

 

Yes. That would be a huge issue with the union and is generally an unethical move.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Would it be unreasonable for the Twins to bring Gibson up for Hernandez's next start and if things go well, option him back to AAA when he hits his inning cap for the season? Maybe mid August?

 

Interesting idea. Don't know if I've seen that before, a demotion without any pretense of performance tied to it. Don't think it would fly -- best case, you get a grievance and piss the player off. Worst case, you get all that plus he's awarded full service time anyway as a result of the grievance.

 

I seem to recall that the Cubs demoted Steve Trachsel in 1994 just before the strike:

 

Trachsel Sent To Minors - Chicago Tribune

 

Not sure exactly what happened, but as best as I can tell, he got full service time credit that year.

[Boom Boom]

I wonder what Gardenhire, who is allegedly managing for his job this season, thinks of the Twins keeping Gibson at AAA in order to potentially save a couple million dollars a few years down the road.

[ThePuck]

I don't know why anyone would criticize the FO...I mean clearly this year's rotation has been substantially improved as promised.

[nicksaviking]

This thread is more evidence that no matter what the Twins front office does it will be criticized. If they call up young guys it is either too early or they are cheap because they didn't sign a veteran.

 

There is usually some middle ground in these kinds of decisions. The Twins just don't typically land in it. There probably would have been little reaction had the Twins called Hicks, Arcia and Gibson up before the Super 2 cut off but after the service time exemption.

 

Likewise, fans likely would not have gotten upset had they not persued Grinke had they gone after Dempster, Haren or Jackson instead of the bottom of the barrell options the team chose.

 

We also likely would not be upset if the Twins gave players two days to test out an injury before putting them on the DL instead of waiting a week and playing with a 24-man-roster during that time.

 

Similarly they have almost no ability to find pitchers who can manage an acceptable K% and BB%, they seem to always find guys who are very good at one while terrible at the other.

 

So perhaps if this team started operating within an accepted margin of error, we would be more forgiving.

[Twins Twerp]

Gibson has not pitched well enough to deserve a promotion until the last week or so. His first complete game was against the worst hitting team in all of the minors (and possibly some college teams). This last game was the real deal. But if he comes out with a clunker on Thursday, he does not warrant a call up. All these people talking about saving money is redonk. Why even cheer for the Twins, move to New York, buy some pinstripes, and spend 500 dollars for an upper deck ticket if you want your team to spend 800 million dollars/year. They are not doing a disservice to Gibby by keeping him down, they are doing what is best for the team and him.

[Brodin4Calder]

In spring training, there was a ton of talk about service time as it related to Aaron Hicks and if he should be on the Opening Day roster. As was discussed, there were some key dates/timelines.

 

1.) For a player not to be a free agent for an extra season,- 20 days

2.) For a player not to be a Super-2 arbitration candidate - sometime around June 5th maybe.

 

So, here is the update:

 

Aaron Hicks - would need 20 days to retain him for an extra season.

Oswaldo Arcia - would need 5 days to retain him for an extra season.

Kyle Gibson - would need about 2 more weeks in AAA to not be a Super-2 guy.

 

I know the Twins are talking about the right things, but they were never going to compete in 2013, so it makes more sense to me to be smart and keep guys around longer term when they're a little better.

 

I enjoy watching Hicks and Arcia. I can't wait to see Gibson debut. But I'm a Twins fan through and through and will be for the long term, and I want to see them better longer. That's why I'd be completely fine with Hicks spending 3 weeks (or two months) in AAA as I believe it is better for him long-term as well as for the Twins. I'm comfortable with Arcia going down for a week. And, although I think Gibson will debut in like 10 days at home against the Brewers, I would be fine with waiting two more weeks.

 

I know many disagree, but in a year where the Twins won't compete, a couple of weeks is not going to make a difference.

 

I agree 100%, this is one of those seasons that you just want to finish and move on to next year.

[nicksaviking]

Why even cheer for the Twins, move to New York, buy some pinstripes, and spend 500 dollars for an upper deck ticket if you want your team to spend 800 million dollars/year.

 

You know the arguement is not going to end in the Twins favor if you really want to start comparing what it costs to go to the various staduims compared to team payroll right?

[SwainZag]

I wonder what Gardenhire, who is allegedly managing for his job this season, thinks of the Twins keeping Gibson at AAA in order to potentially save a couple million dollars a few years down the road.

 

Before his shutout on the 8th he hadn't exactly been lighting the world on fire in AAA. Now that he has thrown efficient shut outs in 2 of his last 3 starts RIGHT NOW is probably the time where calling up him is seen as the probable action. I really don't think it's a situation where he has dominated all season in AAA and been ignored.

[Mike Sixel]

Gibson has not pitched well enough to deserve a promotion until the last week or so. His first complete game was against the worst hitting team in all of the minors (and possibly some college teams). This last game was the real deal. But if he comes out with a clunker on Thursday, he does not warrant a call up. All these people talking about saving money is redonk. Why even cheer for the Twins, move to New York, buy some pinstripes, and spend 500 dollars for an upper deck ticket if you want your team to spend 800 million dollars/year. They are not doing a disservice to Gibby by keeping him down, they are doing what is best for the team and him.

 

 

A: are you sure it is best for the team?

B: how is this best for him, and how do you know?

C: it is true, I am not a true, good, right kind of, fan....

[Riverbrian]

Personally... I'd be disappointed (actually pissed) if any decisions on prospects are based upon 2013 being a lost cause.

 

At this point 6 games behind is not a lost cause and Hicks and Arcia decisions should be based on if they help us win right now. If they don't help us win now... Send them down. I think Arcia helps us win right now... Not so sure about Hicks.

 

We can talk about the season being a lost cause when the season is actually... A lost cause. It's not a lost cause right now and teams fortunes can change on a dime but if the team doesn't find inspiration soon... We will hit the lost cause moment.

 

The team doesn't seem very inspired right now.

 

Pitching has to be addressed and very very soon. If Deduno or Gibson will pitch better than Hernandez... Make the move now. Pelfrey and Worley are complicated but they are next...

 

Any toleration of ERA's over 6 is intolerable. Yes we need them to find themselves... But we can't wait much longer. These decisions are hard.

[nicksaviking]

Any toleration of ERA's over 6 is intolerable. Yes we need them to find themselves... But we can't wait much longer. These decisions are hard.

 

I only disagree in the fact that this number should be lowered to 5.

[snepp]

I only disagree in the fact that this number should be lowered to 5.

 

Somewhere Scott Diamond breathes a sigh of relief, "I'm safe!"

[drjim]

There is usually some middle ground in these kinds of decisions. The Twins just don't typically land in it. There probably would have been little reaction had the Twins called Hicks, Arcia and Gibson up before the Super 2 cut off but after the service time exemption.

 

Likewise, fans likely would not have gotten upset had they not persued Grinke had they gone after Dempster, Haren or Jackson instead of the bottom of the barrell options the team chose.

 

We also likely would not be upset if the Twins gave players two days to test out an injury before putting them on the DL instead of waiting a week and playing with a 24-man-roster during that time.

 

Similarly they have almost no ability to find pitchers who can manage an acceptable K% and BB%, they seem to always find guys who are very good at one while terrible at the other.

 

 

So perhaps if this team started operating within an accepted margin of error, we would be more forgiving.

 

These are of course separate issues. I actually think the timing mentioned regarding Arcia and Gibson are not quite accurate. I thought Arcia cleared the threshold and Gibson would need more time than suggested. I am especially curious on Arcia. In general I take the let them play and let service time issues sort themselves out later. Twins have plenty of money to play with.

[drjim]

And as mentioned why not let the kids try to win. Gibson should have been up two starts ago.

[snepp]

Arcia definitely didn't clear the 20-day threshold, he originally came up after just 14 days.

[jokin]

I don't know why anyone would criticize the FO...I mean clearly this year's rotation has been substantially improved as promised.

 

Lots of selective memory by the Twin-spinners lately, at least the ones still posting, anyway.