Article: Are the Twins a .500 club?

[Cody Christie]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1711-Are-the-Twins-a-500-club

[Brodin4Calder]

The Twins are currently in the top 10 Runs per game in the league. This is what we have been missing out while Morneau was strugling with injuries and trying to get back to himself again. Hes finaly looking like himself, hes on pace for 130RBI and has a .296AVG. Yea his power numbers are still down but that doesnt matter if hes hitting for average and driving in runs like he is. 2 MVPs in the same lineup playing their best baseball is always gonna be a good lineup. Imagine if Willingham was also producing, and Plouffe and the others struggling?

[gunnarthor]

Before the season started, I said that I thought the Twins would be surprisingly competitive and hanging around .500 until the trade deadline when Ryan ships off Willingham and Morneau. I still think that happens.

[Brandon]

Florimon hasnt been the offensive flop we thought he would be and has contributed. so have the bench bats Wilkinson and Escobar. The biggest hole in the lineup thus far hit 2 homeruns last night and has 16 runs and 16 RBIs in around 105 at bats so even with a .150 average he is producing. Dozier and Parmelee have been below average and Arcia is off to a nice start. I hope he wins rookie of the year.

[jay]

Assuming continued health, the starting pitching looks like the key question. Shocker, I know. The staff needs to get about a run better in ERA just to be in the middle of the AL. If that were to magically happen, we'd definitely be above .500.

[Danchat]

I say we drop. The rotation is still really bad, and although Diamond and Correia look to be decent, Pelfrey, Worley, and Hernandez have been awful. I also see the batting dropping off, with so many guys batting under .230. Eventually our bad stats and injuries will catch up with us. (and sorry for being so pessimistic. I'm trying to be realistic.)

[Mike Sixel]

I still think not, but my certainty in this belief has dropped considerably.

[Winston Smith]

According to Fan Graph take it for what you wish, compared to the American League teams

Twins are 12 in hitting, 15 in fielding, 10 in starting pitching and 1 in relief pitching. My eye ball test has been that the bullpen has kept them in a lot of games. Unless the other 3 aspects pick up the pace the bullpen will quickly run out of gas as we've seen before.

One thing they have going for them is there appears to be a lot of mediocre teams in the AL this year.

[Seth Stohs]

People thought I was overly optimistic when I said they would win 73 games this year... I think I'm going to stick with that number, but it's been an impressive season (in my mind) so far!

[jokin]

....and Plouffe and the others struggling?

 

Plouffe is virtually Top Ten among all 3B in OPS for May @ .827 and 15 points above 3B OPS average on the season .737 vs .722. And he's bound to have at least some version of last summer's home run binge again this summer; he's taking many more better ABs than he was taking just a year ago at this point in May, when he was barely batting over .100. (His current OBP is higher than last year's full season number). As a long-term placeholder, the Twins could do a lot worse.

[Don't Feed the Greed Guy]

Reposted from the blog page:

The key, as Cody proposed, is the starting pitching--and the possibility that Gibson, Deduno, Devries or another arm could bolster the rotation. I would love to see Hernandez convert to a lefty option out of the bullpen. Worley needs some time in AAA, it appears.

 

As for the offense, I could see an uptick in production. Just to use the 8th spot in AL runs scored as an example, I could see the Twins move up two or three spots here, especially when Hicks, Willingham, and Doumit and Plouffe are tied for 3-5 in runs scored. They haven't exactly been filling the bases. We could easily see more production here.

[snepp]

I thought low-70's was a pretty common win estimate among the TD masses?

[Oxtung]

I think their ultimate W/L record will be heavily influenced by what they do at the trade deadline. If they keep the team intact they could finish with 75ish wins. If they trade Morneau, Willingham and Perkins they will probably fade significantly.

[DaveW]

I wish I would have bet more on the 64 game over/under

[Carneal&Gordon]

Worley should be fine, his fortune will turn soon.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Judging by their record, I'd say the Twins are a .500 team.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I like most thought this was a 70-80 win team, and thus far, they are slightly exceeding expectations. I'm quite happy for that, especially given that their lineup will likely continue to improve. I expect improvement in some manner from Parm, Plouffe, Hicks, Morneau, and Willingham, and I still think that Parm and Plouffe can crack an .800 OPS. The pitching has been as expected. Worley has been disappointing to say the least. I wouldn't be surprised based on the way things played out that the Twins remained fringe contenders, though it would be my hope that all this would do is drive up the price for those looking to acquire Willingham or Morneau.

[beckmt]

Depends on whether the Twins even around .500 drop out of the race as some of the teams start to run away and get to 10-15 over in the next month or so and the Twins now are 7-8 games from the last wild card spot. The bottom teams are really bad and the west figures with 18 games each against the Astros to have teams get well over .500. My guess is unless Parmalee starts to hit, Twins will try and extend Morneau and start the end of Parmalee. Too many players are starting to pass him and AB's will be hard to get unless he starts hitting and when you are not hitting it is hard to find more than 2 starts a week for you. Viscous circle.

[glunn]

I wish I would have bet more on the 64 game over/under

 

The line was 68 when I bet the over, and like you I now wish that I had bet more.

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

According to Fan Graph take it for what you wish, compared to the American League teams

Twins are 12 in hitting, 15 in fielding, 10 in starting pitching and 1 in relief pitching. My eye ball test has been that the bullpen has kept them in a lot of games. Unless the other 3 aspects pick up the pace the bullpen will quickly run out of gas as we've seen before.

One thing they have going for them is there appears to be a lot of mediocre teams in the AL this year.

 

The Twins are the worst fielding team in the AL? Considering they are #6 for Fielding % in the entire MLB, that's surprising and questionable.

[ThePuck]

The Twins are the worst fielding team in the AL? Considering they are #6 for Fielding % in the entire MLB, that's surprising and questionable.

 

Only if you think errors and fielding % is a good way to judge defense...

[snepp]

Fielding %, even on its best day, makes for a pretty lousy measure of overall defensive quality.

[ThePuck]

Fielding %, even on its best day, makes for a pretty lousy measure of overall defensive quality.

 

Exactly...any stat that tells me Peralta is a better fielding shortstop than Ozzie Smith was is flawed...especially since Peralta isn't close to what Ozzie was on defense.

[johnnydakota]

The Twins are currently in the top 10 Runs per game in the league. This is what we have been missing out while Morneau was strugling with injuries and trying to get back to himself again. Hes finaly looking like himself, hes on pace for 130RBI and has a .296AVG. Yea his power numbers are still down but that doesnt matter if hes hitting for average and driving in runs like he is. 2 MVPs in the same lineup playing their best baseball is always gonna be a good lineup. Imagine if Willingham was also producing, and Plouffe and the others struggling?

 

Arnt there only 15 teams in the leaque?

[RedBull34]

Arnt there only 15 teams in the leaque?

Major Leagues I do believe.

[stringer bell]

The Twins, as presently constructed, aren't a .500 team. The starting pitching is too weak, with little hope that the current guys will improve as the season goes along. The bullpen is overachieving and will regress, although, as a whole, it is an asset. Offensively, the Twins are producing a fair number of runs, despite poor power numbers. There are too many low OBP positions currently to sustain such production. The club has improved defensively, despite dealing two above-average defensive outfielders.