Twins 2023 Position Analysis: First Base

[Nick Nelson]

Who's on first? 

This year, the question shapes up as more of an existential dilemma for the Twins than comedic riff.

Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Projected Starter: Alex Kirilloff
Likely Backup: Joey Gallo
Depth: Donovan Solano, José Miranda, Tyler White
Prospects: Edouard Julien, Aaron Sabato

THE GOOD
In an ideal scenario, the Twins would be regularly rotating Kirilloff, Miranda and Solano at first base this year, giving the team a pair of young hitting stars along with a veteran line drive machine, and the ability to optimize against any pitching matchup.

Of course, as the strong side of the platoon mix and highest-upside hitter of the bunch, Kirilloff holds the key to that appealing scenario. He's also the biggest question mark on the team in terms of health. 

But if his second wrist surgery proves effective, as he and the team hope, the 25-year-old has the ability to provide ideal production at first base: mashing line drives all over the field, powering the middle of the lineup, producing runs consistently.

We've seen these propensities on display in the majors before, albeit in brief spurts interrupted by recurring wrist problems that completely sabotaged Kirilloff's majestic swing.

Getting that swing back on track would be a game-changing development for the Twins. But it's one they've made themselves less dependent on with the additions of Gallo and Solano. These two could form a solid platoon in Kirilloff's absence.

Even in a very rough 2022 campaign, Gallo held his own against righties, hitting 17 home runs with an OPS+ of 96; in his career he has an .804 OPS versus RHP. Meanwhile, Solano is a reputed lefty masher, having batted above .300 against them in four straight seasons. Both are considered solid defenders at first.

Ultimately, if Kirilloff can't go, the eventuality may well be Miranda as primary first baseman. His defense at third was already questionable before a shoulder injury this spring set him back. It feels like more a matter of when, not if, Miranda will move to first, and depending on how things play out with Kirilloff, Gallo, and Solano, the Twins could be motivated to accelerate that timeline.

Not the worst thing in the world. Miranda profiles as a middle-of-the-order bat befitting the first baseman assignment. But it could have negative ripple effects.

THE BAD
As amazing as it would be to see Kirilloff's swing back in its prime form over a sustained period, that feels like a difficult thing to count on, at least in the short term. To my knowledge, he has yet to even take live BP this spring, much less get into a game, although he's been working in the cages. 

 

Phil Miller had an update on Kirilloff in the Star Tribune over the weekend, and it contained some mixed messages.  

Said Kirilloff: "I still feel it every once in a while, but it's not painful." The "it" in that sentence looms large for a player whose wrist issues have made it impossible for him to swing the way he wants to in the past two seasons.

Said Derek Falvey: "He's on track. The plan is, if he's healthy at the end of camp, he's competing for a spot." If he's on track, then wouldn't the plan be for him to firmly make the team if healthy? We're not talking about some unproven minor-leaguer here. This is Alex Kirilloff.

It seems ridiculous to be dissecting quotes like this but given the vital importance of AK to this club's outlook, and the dearth of information we've gotten so far this spring, we're left with little choice. Taking all the comments at face value, I'm going to assume Kirilloff is on the unlikely side of being on the Opening Day roster, though I'd love to be wrong.

The options behind him are potentially quite compelling, but fraught with downside. Gallo was a star player in 2021, but he was terrible last year, and has played only one game at first base since 2018. Solano has been a consistently solid hitter, but he's 35, and had played zero big-league innings at first prior to last year.

Shifting Miranda across the diamond is a decent fallback, but his defense at first base pretty rough as a rookie, and this would also mean needing to find another bat to replace him at third base. A more inviting proposition if it's an ascendent top prospect like Brooks Lee or Royce Lewis than Kyle Farmer.

Speaking of prospects, the Twins are conspicuously light at this position. It'd be hard to say they have no first base prospects, because in theory they have quite a few top prospects who could end up there – it's at the bottom of the defensive spectrum, after all. But, notably, none of our top 20 from this year currently play there in any sort of regular capacity. 

The most prototypical first base slugger in the system is probably Sabato, whom the Twins drafted in the first round out of college in 2020 with hopes he'd rise fast as an impact bat. Things haven't gone exactly to plan, with Sabato's extreme contact struggles negating the value of his standout power and patience, but he's been playing a lot in big-league camp this year and could be an immediate factor at age 24 if he takes a step forward in the high minors this year.

THE BOTTOM LINE
Rocco Baldelli has indicated that he "expects first base to be a revolving door similar to designated hitter," as Dan Hayes of The Athletic put it. 

"We don’t have a first baseman,” the manager said earlier this spring. “We have several guys that are going to play first base. We don’t need one guy that’s going to play first base.” 

They certainly have options, albeit ones with limited experience. (Nick Gordon, owner of zero innings of first base experience at any level, was evidently mentioned as a possibility in the same discussion.)

Then again, if Luis Arraez's emergence as an All-Star and Gold Glove finalist at first taught us anything, it's that experience is no prerequisite. Tell em Wash.

The upside of this position feels capped without a healthy and thriving Kirilloff (in which case it's sky-high), but the Twins have built in enough floor to maintain a relatively high floor if things go amiss once again with their former number one prospect.

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[Karbo]

I wonder if they would try Julian there if he hits well this spring?

[Doctor Gast]

Thanks Nick, always enjoy your perspective. Alex Kiriloff is the only one that Twins have given much time at 1B, except Sabato (which probably won't see any MLB time) . The others the Twins haven't been worried about it, that they can easily transition. (Except for full time 1B like Sabato, the Twins like to throw hopeful catchers there). Which is fine with me because Arraez who had 0 experience at 1B and is less athletic was able to transition on the fly & did fine. So those who are more experienced, more athletic & bigger should be  better.

Yet, I'd still like them see more time at 1B especially Julien. 1B isn't such a premium position IMO we have abundance of adequate depth there. For a long time I believe that Kiriloff won't make the active roster breaking camp. Because he started swinging late and they want to take him slow.

[miracleb]

Arraez an all-star level performer at 1st base....not really.  Which is why Miami is probably playing journeyman Garret Cooper there this year.   It just reinforces the fact that 1st base is one of the easier positions to "plug a guy in" if needed........

[High heat]

The biggest impact and potential on the lineup starts here.  If Miranda has to move to 1B his value plummets.  The difference between finding a 3B bat and finding a 1B bat is huge.  
It also allows Kirilloff to play everyday at 1B.  

If this Twins team is going to be any good  they are going to need Kirilloff healthy and productive and Miranda to play as well offensively as he did in 22. 

[arby58]

48 minutes ago, Karbo said:

I wonder if they would try Julian there if he hits well this spring?

Why not? He's 6'2" so would have the size you prefer there. He hits, he plays, right?

[Trov]

The current FO has treated 1B as a not needed defender there.  They will throw anyone over there.  This has been a clear plan that outside of Sabato, who has not been good in minors overall, they have no one you would slot into 1B in minors.  Over the last few years we have rotated several different people there.  

Personally, I do not like this plan, as a good defending 1B will save your team a ton of errors and extra bases.  It is not so much about the stops they make, but the way they field bad throws from other guys.  Sure, if a throw is good, just about any MLB talent should be able to play the position.  However, when you have a bad defender there you notice it.  However, clearly this FO feels you can live with a bad defender there in the long run as they have had no plan to address it. 

I would not be surprised at all if they give Julian some time there if he hits his way onto the roster and AK is not ready to play. 

[gunnarthor]

I think this article is about right. Kiriloff is the obvious difference maker but the wrist is a huge problem. If he could be healthy, I'd swear he'd be a consistent middle of the order bat. But the injuries have really messed it up. It's depressing. 

I think Rocco's quote is accurate, the Twins will use DH and 1B as a "mix-and-match" position. I'm not sure that's ideal but it's what they are going to do. They have enough bats to find some decent production out of first base but they won't be top 10 there.

[JD-TWINS]

Seems Gallo would be short-term LH bat solution at 1B if Kirilof isn’t ready April 1. No question.

LH bat solution if Kirilof is washed for months, would be to get Gordon up to speed. Fielding balls isn’t an issue - footwork around the base would take a month or more while Gallo holds down the position for 6-8 weeks against RH pitching.

At some point is leaving Gallo at 1B OK & Gordon in LF OK…….less risky?

Obviously, hope Kirilof is up with Big Club very soon!

[CRF]

At some point, KIrilloff has to get out there and see if he can play. Hopefully soon. If he hasn't even faced live pitching yet, he's got a ways to go. If Kirilloff can't make it, it'll probably be a different guy every game at first. I kind of like the Julien idea at 1B. That might be a great way to get his bat in the line up. 

[Byrdman]

There is still 3 weeks left of spring training.  I am not worried.  AK is just getting used to it.  They did cut some of his bone off.  Your body and mind is getting used to it not being there.  AK will get a good 2 weeks in this spring and ready to roll.  If not he will start on the IL and Solono will start there for us until AK is ready.  

[Mike h]

The thing about a first baseman is he doesn't need to run like an outfielder, he doesn't need the arm of a third baseman, he doesn't need the reflexes of a middle infielder, and if he hasn't trained as a catcher he can't just slot in there either. So 1B is the only place left. Which is no disgrace. You could carve out a Hall of Fame career playing there. Harmon Killebrew played there. Every MLB player is a gifted athlete with incredible talent. Still, playing 1B well requires special practice, like scooping errant throws out of the dirt and charging in for bunts. I assume our potential 1B players are getting daily reps practicing those things.

Regarding Miranda's defense at 3B, I think he'll be fine. Didn't Derek Jeter make something like 40 errors in one year? They stuck with him though and the rest is history. The Twins had a young 3B named Craig Nettles, who they traded to the Yankees. Calvin G, the owner at the time, had commented that Nettles was 500 ground balls away from (being a ML 3B? From being any good? Sorry, I don't remember the exact ending, but this is the gist of it.) Nettles went on to have a great career, but it took some patience for him to develope. If the Twins are patient with Mirandai think he will develop into a better defensive 3B as well. Some of us want him to be a finished product right now, and if hest not, then we want him to sit or be traded. I say keep him, let him play, and we'll be rewarded.

[mikelink45]

I worry and hope with Kiriloff, but wonder why Wallner is not an option here too?  

My one comment on defense at 1B - it is the position that is involved in more action than any position except catcher and we should give it more defensive consideration.  

[jmlease1]

The good thing is there are options that are available either as short-term or longer if needed right now. ideally, we'd have Kirilloff installed from Day One, healthy and productive, smashing line drives all over the park and playing a quality 1B. But it might not get there on the perfect schedule. So far, I don't think the news on Kirilloff is bad: no, he's not playing in games yet, but he also hasn't been shut down to rest it up either. So the recovery seems to be going ok? It's a process. I get how after the last two injury-filled seasons for the Twins everyone is hyper-sensitive to every droplet of news about an injury or rehab note, and with injuries that were supposed to have taken only a few weeks to rehab turning into months-long epics that sometimes led to surgeries. but right now, even if Kirilloff isn't quite ready for Opening Day, he seems to be on the path to go in April, not May or June.

Gallo as a backup seems ok if not ideal (losing his defensive value in the OF seems wasteful). i don't think they want to run Miranda out there unless they have to: they clearly want him at 3B and it feels like they believe (and I don't disagree) that it will be better for his development if he slots in at one position rather than flip back and forth. If his arm isn't quite ready, I think it's more likely we see him at DH than slotting in at 1B. Solano seems to be the first choice to roll in there in the short term, and I think that's ok. But he's probably not the best long term fit.

The pipeline for 1B prospects doesn't have a lot of guys lined up there, but the Twins philosophy does seems to avoid drafting players that slot in at 1B early in their career. They'd rather draft a hitter at another spot and slide him down as they develop than limit themselves from a prospect lane, and i think that's the right choice. Julien looks like he might end up at 1B and be fine there, and there are options in the lower minors from some of the OF that could end up at 1B too. It's also a position where there's almost always a CJ Cron type available in the free agent market if you're willing to commit $8-10M+ to the spot, so it's not that hard to fill the gap if you have the payroll to do it. (I'm sure the twins would love Sabato to break out and push his way up, but that's sadly looking unlikely.) Someone like Emmanuel Rodriguez may end up being a better fit for corner OF/1B by the time he (hopefully) hits his way up to MLB too. So I'm not too worried about the pipeline right now.

[jmlease1]

8 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

I worry and hope with Kiriloff, but wonder why Wallner is not an option here too?  

My one comment on defense at 1B - it is the position that is involved in more action than any position except catcher and we should give it more defensive consideration.  

I'm guessing they see defensive value in Wallner's arm in the OF and are hoping that work on his fielding in the OF now will make him a more effective defender out there. 

[Mike h]

The thing about a first baseman is he doesn't need to run like an outfielder, he doesn't need the arm of a third baseman, he doesn't need the reflexes of a middle infielder, and if he hasn't trained as a catcher he can't just slot in there either. So 1B is the only place left. Which is no disgrace. You could carve out a Hall of Fame career playing there. Harmon Killebrew played there. Every MLB player is a gifted athlete with incredible talent. Still, playing 1B well requires special practice, like scooping errant throws out of the dirt and charging in for bunts. I assume our potential 1B players are getting daily reps practicing those things.

Regarding Miranda's defense at 3B, I think he'll be fine. Didn't Derek Jeter make something like 40 errors in one year? They stuck with him though and the rest is history. The Twins had a young 3B named Craig Nettles, who they traded to the Yankees. Calvin G, the owner at the time, had commented that Nettles was 500 ground balls away from (being a ML 3B? From being any good? Sorry, I don't remember the exact ending, but this is the gist of it.) Nettles went on to have a great career, but it took some patience for him to develope. If the Twins are patient with Mirandai think he will develop into a better defensive 3B as well. Some of us want him to be a finished product right now, and if hest not, then we want him to sit or be traded. I say keep him, let him play, and we'll be rewarded.

Edit: Nettles was traded to Cleveland, then they traded him to the Yankees. Sorry about my error.

[chpettit19]

There's multiple reports from many of the beat writers that Kirilloff has been taking live BP for at least a week.

[Mike Sixel]

36 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

I'm guessing they see defensive value in Wallner's arm in the OF and are hoping that work on his fielding in the OF now will make him a more effective defender out there. 

If Kiriloff is hurt, I'd love to see Wallner or Larnach get a shot at first. Though I believe Larnach is the long term RF, if he's healthy. 

[TwinsDr2021]

40 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

I'm guessing they see defensive value in Wallner's arm in the OF and are hoping that work on his fielding in the OF now will make him a more effective defender out there. 

Wallner is 25, so if they think his bat plays at the majors, there is no reason to send him to the minors to work on OF fielding, as it is now without an injury the outfield and possibly going forward with Lewis, Buxton, Lee and maybe ERog is fairly set and not much room for him there, so IMO if they are sending him to the minors to work on fielding, it is because they don't believe his bat currently will play in the majors and if that is the case he could be working on 1B and OF. If I was Wallner I would be begging to be given a chance at 1B with the current outfield. That way if he/I are hitting well and AK comes back he could move to the OF if Gallo or Kepler isn't getting it done. Gives him/me a set up on guys like Lee and Lewis because he/me is capable at multiple positions.

Now if I am the Twins, I telling Julien and Wallner get a first baseman's glove broken in if you want to play in the majors any time soon.

[roger]

Thanks, Nick, for another excellent report.

I pray that AK is in the Twins lineup in a week or ten days and when the season opens at KC he is the starting first baseman.  I remain hopeful, that five years from now we will look back and see that AK has been the Twins first baseman in 140+ games every year, including 2023.  If he is, the Twins lineup will be dangerous, very dangerous.

[TopGunn#22]

Yeah, Nettles was part of the trade to bring Luis Tiant to the Twins for the 1970 season.  This is why Kirilloff is such a key to the Twins season.  He could fill that 1B spot and be a solid middle of the order bat.  He's a special talent, but we're all hoping he can be healthy.  If he's healthy, I don't think there's anyone on TD who doesn't think he will hit.

[Nick Nelson]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

There's multiple reports from many of the beat writers that Kirilloff has been taking live BP for at least a week.

Could you cite a source? I've not heard this and didn't see it happen during a week down there. Swinging in the cages is not the same as live BP.

[Squirrel]

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

I'm guessing they see defensive value in Wallner's arm in the OF and are hoping that work on his fielding in the OF now will make him a more effective defender out there. 

Indeed. I'd heard he has the best arm? Maybe I heard wrong, but he can throw

[KBJ1]

First base has been a gaping hole for years, in the traditional sense. Kiriloff finally showed potential to change that, but has been sidelined the last two years. Arraez & Miranda are NOT, were not 1B material. Their inexperience at the position showed often and a high average, low power guy is not what a team needs at 1B. Solano as a backup/platoon was an extremely wise move. He hits 300 against LHP, what's not to love?

Leave Miranda at 3rd and Gallo in left.

The only other guy I'd like to see developed there right now would be Julien. Seems he doesnt really have another position he excels at to begin with, so he may as well learn 1B.

[joefish]

2 hours ago, Trov said:

The current FO has treated 1B as a not needed defender there.  They will throw anyone over there.  This has been a clear plan that outside of Sabato, who has not been good in minors overall, they have no one you would slot into 1B in minors.  Over the last few years we have rotated several different people there.  

Personally, I do not like this plan, as a good defending 1B will save your team a ton of errors and extra bases.  It is not so much about the stops they make, but the way they field bad throws from other guys.  Sure, if a throw is good, just about any MLB talent should be able to play the position.  However, when you have a bad defender there you notice it.  However, clearly this FO feels you can live with a bad defender there in the long run as they have had no plan to address it. 

I would not be surprised at all if they give Julian some time there if he hits his way onto the roster and AK is not ready to play. 

Yes, Rocco, we do need a first baseman. Plan on that. 

[Minny505]

In the original entry: "His defense at third was already questionable".

I honestly don't understand this sentiment. There was not a lot of concern about him playing 3B when he was a prospect and his play there as rookie leads me to believe he'll be an average-to-slightly-below-average defensive 3B.

Yes, he was atrocious at 1B, but he was a 0 across the board for DRA, OAA, & RAA at 3B.

[Doctor Gast]

2 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Wallner is 25, so if they think his bat plays at the majors, there is no reason to send him to the minors to work on OF fielding, as it is now without an injury the outfield and possibly going forward with Lewis, Buxton, Lee and maybe ERog is fairly set and not much room for him there, so IMO if they are sending him to the minors to work on fielding, it is because they don't believe his bat currently will play in the majors and if that is the case he could be working on 1B and OF. If I was Wallner I would be begging to be given a chance at 1B with the current outfield. That way if he/I are hitting well and AK comes back he could move to the OF if Gallo or Kepler isn't getting it done. Gives him/me a set up on guys like Lee and Lewis because he/me is capable at multiple positions.

Now if I am the Twins, I telling Julien and Wallner get a first baseman's glove broken in if you want to play in the majors any time soon.

Wallner has a lot of raw talent (speed & strong arm) that hasn't been developed yet, which is a shame at this stage. Nevertheless he still that potential and would be a waste at 1B. If he can get a better feel for the OF (getting reads, etc.) he'll be invaluable.

[Jocko87]

As someone who hit every rung of the defensive spectrum ladder on true way down to finally settle in as a semi-competent 1st baseman I approve of this strategy.  I never bought the argument that Mientkiewicz saved enough runs to make up for his lesser bat as much as I enjoyed watching him play.  You would need horrible scattergun arms all over the infield for it to matter much.  One of the underrated factors of Correas arm is that he throws easy to catch balls to first, even at 100mph.  He is very good at the long skip that we defensively limited gloves love at 1st.  The other infield arms are good enough it won't be a significant difference. 

If they think any of the prospects can't hang at 1st defensively they should trade them now before the rest of the league finds out. 

Whoever hits, plays.  Good problem to have now that we have options that can hit.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

footwork, cutoffs, developing a rapport with the pitcher and catcher on pickoffs, with the pitcher and second baseman on ground balls... some guys can make it look like a cakewalk if they are not tested for a while.

Here is one example of what getting your wires crossed up, looks like: 

 

[TwinsDr2021]

33 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Wallner has a lot of raw talent (speed & strong arm) that hasn't been developed yet, which is a shame at this stage. Nevertheless he still that potential and would be a waste at 1B. If he can get a better feel for the OF (getting reads, etc.) he'll be invaluable.

invaluable to the Saints? If they think he can hit major league pitching does it matter if he is at 1B, DH or the OF? Currently ESPN has him listed as the 4th right fielder, they have Miranda as the 1st 3B and 2nd 1B behind AK and Farmer as the 3rd 1B. If AK can't start Miranda can't play both 1B and 3B, which means Farmer or Gordon is at 1B, since Gallo is listed as the 1st LF.

He seems pretty buried on the OF depth chart which means quite a few bad things need to happen for him to start in the majors in the OF and if he spends the year in AAA  he could get passed by Lewis, Lee, Martin or even ERod and in the mean time while in playing AAA as a 25 year old he could get passed by Julien at DH and 1B.

It is in his best interest and the Twins to get a first basemen glove along with his outfielders glove.