The Twins Dark Horse Designated Hitter

[twinstalker]

16 minutes ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

I'm not suggesting...I'm wondering if it's a possibility.

You're also probably putting entirely too much stock into 16 ABs...

But the onus isn't on me.  He's currently a minor league player.  To reject that null hypothesis, you need evidence otherwise.  Hitting 2-3 batting practice type HRs is not evidence.  Hitting well vs major leaguers midway through spring training might be.  On the other hand, striking out 8 of 17 PAs at that early, early stage is a red flag. 

So far he's struck out more at the minor league levels than moving to the majors will withstand.  25% at AA becomes 35% at MLB.  Julien has a chance to be an MLBer, maybe a decent one, but I'd suggest the truer evidence against the type of pitching he's faced (first outings, slow straight balls, many bad pitchers) is the inability to put the ball in play rather than the fact three have gone over the fence when he does hit it.

He's on the 40, so injuries can allow for anything to happen, but if you were to infer anything from the first 17 plate appearances in spring training, it should be that he's not ready.

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Nothing about that last paragraph is backed up by data. 

You are saying there isn't data that players that debut at age 24 or older generally don't turn into above average or better full time players outside of catchers and relief pitchers?

Are there players in the majors like this, absolutely there is, but in a game that revolves around statistics and odds I feel pretty comfortable saying that if a 24 year old player needs more time to develop in the minors he probably isn't the type of player we are hoping he is. In this case it seems he is blocked based on the other players on the Twins and possibly the lack of position flexibility and that is a different story. (Similar to Jeremy Pena in 21 with Houston, he didn't need more time to develop he needed a job opening, they had  Correa, Altuve and Alvarez blocking him)

 

EDIT - In the last 20 or so years on the Twins I found a few players that debuted at around age 24 or so. Dozier, Jacque Jones, Koskie, Mohr, Span, Coomer and Lecroy (both catchers and a bunch of other catchers), Ford, Maybe Punto, Bartlett, Tiffee, Maybe Hocking, Blake, Kielty, Chad Allen, Buchanan, Lamb, Mike Ryan, Prieto, Luis Rodriquez, Tyner?, Rabe, Garrett Jones, Darnell McDonald, Pridie, Macri, Tolbert, Repko, Plouffe, Hughes, Tosoni, Dinkelman, Clete Thomas, Matt Carson, Valencia, Florimon, Mastroianni, Colabello, Presley, Beresford, Robinson, Herrmann, Fuld, Granite, Goodrum, Austin, LaMarre, The Turtle, Field, Motter, Cave, Wade, Ian Miller, Nick Gordon, Rooker, Refsnyder, Garlick, Iidemoaro Vargas, Larnach, Wallner, Contreras, Palacios

So yes a few of them had decent season and maybe even played a decent amount of seasons, but again the odds are if you need seasoning at age 24, the best you can hope for is a Koskie, Dozier, Barlett. Jones type of career .

[Mike Sixel]

34 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

You are saying there isn't data that players that debut at age 24 or older generally don't turn into above average or better full time players outside of catchers and relief pitchers?

Are there players in the majors like this, absolutely there is, but in a game that revolves around statistics and odds I feel pretty comfortable saying that if a 24 year old player needs more time to develop in the minors he probably isn't the type of player we are hoping he is. In this case it seems he is blocked based on the other players on the Twins and possibly the lack of position flexibility and that is a different story. (Similar to Jeremy Pena in 21 with Houston, he didn't need more time to develop he needed a job opening, they had  Correa, Altuve and Alvarez blocking him)

 

EDIT - In the last 20 or so years on the Twins I found a few players that debuted at around age 24 or so. Dozier, Jacque Jones, Koskie, Mohr, Span, Coomer and Lecroy (both catchers), Ford, Maybe Punto, Bartlett, Tiffee, Maybe Hocking, Blake, Kielty, Chad Allen, Buchanan, Lamb, Mike Ryan, Prieto, Luis Rodriquez, Tyner?, Rabe, Garrett Jones, Darnell McDonald, Pridie, Macri, Tolbert, Repko, Plouffe, Hughes, Tosoni, Dinkelman, Clete Thomas, Matt Carson, Valencia, Florimon, Mastroianni, Colabello, Presley, Beresford, Robinson, Herrmann, Fuld, Granite, Goodrum, Austin, LaMarre, The Turtle, Field, Motter, Cave, Wade, Ian Miller, Nick Gordon, Rooker, Refsnyder, Garlick, Iidemoaro Vargas, Larnach, Wallner, Contreras, Palacios

So yes a few of them had decent season and maybe even played a decent amount of seasons, but again the odds are if you need seasoning at age 24, you probably don't end up like Koskie and Dozier.

You are comparing him to guys that were never considered real prospects? And only looking at Twins? Ya, there just isn't data to back up your hypothesis. MANY college guys barely appear in the majors before 24......

[TwinsDr2021]

1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

You are comparing him to guys that were never considered real prospects? And only looking at Twins? Ya, there just isn't data to back up your hypothesis. MANY college guys barely appear in the majors before 24......

Really? I said if he needs to go to the minors develop then he isn't really a prospect that we hope he is, if he is blocked that is a different story. I gave you a list of 30+ players that have appeared for the Twins in the last 22 years, and yes there were a few MVPS votes in the group and maybe an all star appearance. You could do this with every team and you are going to get the same results, yes there will be teams that have better guys (Judge, France, Cronenworth are examples but they are the exception not the rule)

 

[jjswol]

Why would you take a young up and coming hitter like this and turn him into a DH? I have a better chance of being the Twins DH then this happening and I haven't picked up a bat in over 57 years.