So...about that pitch to contact philosophy

[whydidnt]

Phil Miller's MLB insider at the Strib today: MLB Insider: Twins missing out on league's strikeout trend | StarTribune.com mentions that Twins starters are striking out about 1/2 the league average of hitters. That's an astounding number, but it got me thinking. For the last couple years some of us have been complaining about the Twins Pitch to Contact philosophy. Others have said they just don't have the pitchers, it's not the coaching or organizational philosophy, it's just how things have fallen. I think we are seeing a disturbing trend that points to it being a philosophy thing, NOT just the guys that are here. Look a the K/9 rates for the three guys the Twins brought in this year:

Worley 4.8 K/9 - previous career low 7.2

Pelfrey 3.9 K/9 - previous career low 4.9

Corriea 3.9 K/9 - previous career low 4.5

 

Keep in mind these are their previous low for an entire season, not their career average and I think even with relatively small sample size we can see a trend, or at least the start of one. It seems that, at least this year, veterans brought in to start with Twins are definitely pitching to contact more than at any point in their career.

 

To me this is a huge issue and one reason why the Twins continue to struggle with their rotation. The organization is too stubborn to adjust to the way the game is pitched these days. Strikeouts are up and have been going up league wide everywhere but here.

[Craig Arko]

Don't forget the built-in bias in those numbers of facing a DH instead of a pitcher.

 

Worley's case is still the one that sticks out, but he's been pretty ineffective in general so far.

 

If the Twins want more strikeouts, they need more guys who can hit the mid-upper 90's. Look at Perk and Burton as examples.

[whydidnt]

Well, I probably should have looked at BB/9 to see if it proves my opinion - sure enough - Worley - 2.3 BB/9 - Previous career low 3.1 BB/9 (thowing out 2.8 for 13 IPs as a rookie)

Pelfrey - 2.4 BB/9 - Previous career low 2.9 BB/9 (thowing out last years 1.8 over 18 IPs)

Correia - 1.4 BB/9 - Previous career low 2.4 BB/9

 

Not that walking fewer guys is a bad thing. But there is an obvious trade off of strikeouts for walks for all three of these guys - indicating the Twins and Anderson's emphasis on pitching to contact. The question is going to be if the trade off is worth it. I don't think it is since a strike out is the most valuable out and a walk is the least damaging way for someone to reach base.

[gunnarthor]

SSS is going to be a big part of this right now. I do think the team stresses no walks more than get strikeouts and you see Correa has a career hight SO/BB ratio. Pelfrey is coming back from TJ surgery so his numbers were going to be skewed anyway (he somehow has a 3.68fip). I have no idea what's wrong with Worley. He's plain frightening although he does have his highest GB% of his career.

 

But I have a hard time claiming that the Twins are actively not trying to get strikeouts. I mean Ryan got pitchers like Santana and Liriano and went after high-K minor leaguers May and Meyer this offseason (and Johnson has been drafting a ton of flame throwers). It could be something as simple as economic value in free agency where GB pitchers like Correia were cheaper (even on a per/WAR basis) than flashy strike out pitchers like Sanchez.

 

The other point would be that a guy like Burton has hit his career high in K/9 as a Twin and they have some good kguys in the pen, who also don't walk many. And that's not necessarily the same as hard throwing guys in the pen.

[gunnarthor]

If the Twins want more strikeouts, they need more guys who can hit the mid-upper 90's. Look at Perk and Burton as examples.

 

Burton's fastball avgs 91mph, slightly less than Pelfrey's.

[ThePuck]

Last year we had 143 strikeouts less than the 29th ranked team in strikeouts.

 

The difference between the 29th ranked team and the 14th ranked team was 132 strikeouts.

 

In 2011, we had 84 less strikeouts than the 29th tanked team in strikeouts.

 

The difference between the 29th ranked team and 21st ranked team in strikeouts was 74.

[whydidnt]

I agree that SSS is certainly a factor. However, we've seen the Twins staff featuring low k's, low bbs for the last several years. It goes beyond sample size and is an obvious philosophy. I do agree that it seems RPs are treated a bit different, at least back of the pen guys. Time will tell how these hard throwers develop and what happens once they get here - particularly those guys those guys that end up starters.

 

I think it was telling that the Twins made the deals for Meyer & May and Ryan said they wanted more K's, but then he went did the exact opposite when signing guys for the ML staff. I don't really think he believes that K's matter. I think he's got guys on the staff telling him that, but some of his actions seem to point a different direction, and have for several years.

 

SSS is going to be a big part of this right now. I do think the team stresses no walks more than get strikeouts and you see Correa has a career hight SO/BB ratio. Pelfrey is coming back from TJ surgery so his numbers were going to be skewed anyway (he somehow has a 3.68fip). I have no idea what's wrong with Worley. He's plain frightening although he does have his highest GB% of his career.

 

But I have a hard time claiming that the Twins are actively not trying to get strikeouts. I mean Ryan got pitchers like Santana and Liriano and went after high-K minor leaguers May and Meyer this offseason (and Johnson has been drafting a ton of flame throwers). It could be something as simple as economic value in free agency where GB pitchers like Correia were cheaper (even on a per/WAR basis) than flashy strike out pitchers like Sanchez.

 

The other point would be that a guy like Burton has hit his career high in K/9 as a Twin and they have some good kguys in the pen, who also don't walk many. And that's not necessarily the same as hard throwing guys in the pen.

[cmathewson]

I think it is as much about the pitchers they have as anything. If Correia, Pelfrey and Worley try to strike guys out, they end up in a lot of long at bats and don't get deep into games. As far as I know, they never encouraged Santana to pitch to contact. But they haven't ever replaced his dominance in the rotation.

 

It's not about velocity as mush as having that out pitch, like Burton's change or Perkins' slider. It'll be interesting to see how their K rates change when they have Gibson, May and Meyer in the rotation. I suspect they'll be closer to the middle of the pack, if not above, with better arms in the rotation.

[gunnarthor]

I agree that SSS is certainly a factor. However, we've seen the Twins staff featuring low k's, low bbs for the last several years. It goes beyond sample size and is an obvious philosophy. I do agree that it seems RPs are treated a bit different, at least back of the pen guys. Time will tell how these hard throwers develop and what happens once they get here - particularly those guys those guys that end up starters.

 

I think it was telling that the Twins made the deals for Meyer & May and Ryan said they wanted more K's, but then he went did the exact opposite when signing guys for the ML staff. I don't really think he believes that K's matter. I think he's got guys on the staff telling him that, but some of his actions seem to point a different direction, and have for several years.

 

I get what you're saying and I so wish we had 5 Santana types but I'm not sure we're not overrating K's a little bit. Our last good team (2010) was 27th in k/9, I believe, but #1 in K/BB and #2 in pitching WAR. Our staffs were generally top half in WAR (and k/bb) even in 07-09 and well above that in other years. In 2011 the staff imploded and bottomed out last year but I don't want to put too much weight on those two years since even the Twins knew they were using #7 type pitchers far too much.

[whydidnt]

Well, I think there is one general truth. A ball put in play has a much better chance of becoming a hit than one that isn't. That's why I think K's are so important. Yes, there will times when guys succeed with a low K/9 rate, as 2010 proved - but you really are counting on the luck factor of balls falling in our not, if you build your staff around guys without "stuff" and then further encourage those guys to pitch to contact.

 

I was trying to think of other examples, but it's hard, we really haven't had many guys here over the last several years who were known for their stuff, guys like Garza and Liriano seemed to butt heads with the staff some, so I still think there is more here than just guys without stuff. It would be nice to have a larger sample size of guys though.

[IdahoPilgrim]

Key point to remember about statistics:

 

Correlation does not equal causation.

 

You look at the numbers for Worley, Pelfrey & Correia and see a common trend. Thus, "logically", the common factor they have (moving to Minnesota and working with the Twins pitching staff) must have caused the common change.

 

It merits further investigation, but by itself it does not show/prove that the Twins pitching philosophy is responsible.

[TheLeviathan]

Market inefficiency?

[whydidnt]

This is all true. However, I also think we've seen this philosophy for long enough to understand that where there is smoke there is probably fire. Let's see how things look in another month or so, perhaps as these guys adjust to the league their results will move back to their historical norms. If they don't, there seems to be on common thread...

 

Key point to remember about statistics:

 

Correlation does not equal causation.

 

You look at the numbers for Worley, Pelfrey & Correia and see a common trend. Thus, "logically", the common factor they have (moving to Minnesota and working with the Twins pitching staff) must have caused the common change.

 

It merits further investigation, but by itself it does not show/prove that the Twins pitching philosophy is responsible.

[Craig Arko]

Burton's fastball avgs 91mph, slightly less than Pelfrey's.

 

OK, I was going off an old report of Seth's. And unlike Angel Hernandez, am willing to admit a mistake.

[mnfireman]

Garza refused to throw an "out" pitch, instead trying to rely on his fastball. Through the minors he was able to blow batters away, but most major league hitters will feast on a steady diet of fastballs. In Tampa he threw the off-speed stuff and found success. Maybe it isn't what the team asks but how it asks/tells?

[notoriousgod71]

It must be an organization philosophy. Dick has spent the better part of the last week saying, "See, pitch to contact does work!"

[snepp]

Garza refused to throw an "out" pitch, instead trying to rely on his fastball. Through the minors he was able to blow batters away, but most major league hitters will feast on a steady diet of fastballs. In Tampa he threw the off-speed stuff and found success. Maybe it isn't what the team asks but how it asks/tells?

 

 

Garza threw his fastball 63% of the time in Minnesota, 71% of the time in Tampa.

 

 

Just fyi.

[stringer bell]

I'll repeat what I've said before, two of the three new guys are bridges to a future that should include higher velo/higher strikeout guys--Meyer, May, Gibson and shortly after that Berrios--so the results figure. Is there something to their reduced K rate so far? Well, all three moved from the NL to the AL, and two are coming off of arm injuries. Perhaps Anderson is the staunchest adherent to "if you can't strike 'em out, don't walk 'em", but perhaps as pointed out above, there isn't anything in the Twins' philosophy that caused the reduction in strikeouts. It is tough to acquire good arms from outside the organization in trades or via free agency. I certainly see a change in the past year or two towards guys that will post high K rates away from the "command and control" types that have ascended through the ranks for some time.

[cmathewson]

Well, I think there is one general truth. A ball put in play has a much better chance of becoming a hit than one that isn't. That's why I think K's are so important. Yes, there will times when guys succeed with a low K/9 rate, as 2010 proved - but you really are counting on the luck factor of balls falling in our not, if you build your staff around guys without "stuff" and then further encourage those guys to pitch to contact.

 

I was trying to think of other examples, but it's hard, we really haven't had many guys here over the last several years who were known for their stuff, guys like Garza and Liriano seemed to butt heads with the staff some, so I still think there is more here than just guys without stuff. It would be nice to have a larger sample size of guys though.

 

It's not all luck. Pitch to contact works if you get a lot of weak grounders and pop-ups. If guys are making solid contact, it's a matter of luck to get outs. But the point of pitching is to prevent them from making solid contact. The best case is no contact. But it does take three pitches to get a guy out with a strike-out. You can sometimes get two guys out with one pitch on a grounder.

 

To me, the ideal is a Verlander, who pitches to contact until he gets guys in scoring position, then he goes for strikeouts. The key is, he usually avoids solid contact. And he has more than one strikeout pitch to fall back on. So he's very effective in getting strikeouts when he needs to. But pitching to contact allows him to lead the league in innings every year. When he was younger, he tried to strike everybody out. And he had a lot of short starts. When he matured, he learned to dial it back a bit and hit his spots, where he could keep the ball off the fat part of the bat and get a lot of quick outs.

 

Thing is, most guys are not like Verlander. Most guys are lucky to get weak grounders and pop-ups. For these guys, going for strikeouts all the time is a recipe for disaster. The key is to try to get guys like Verlander if you can. It's not easy, but it might be the only way to build a championship staff. We're a long way from that, obviously. Though I have some hope for Gibson, May, Meyer and Berios, and perhaps Baxendale and Wimmers as well.

[Brodin4Calder]

This will all change in the next few years with Gibson, Meyer, May, Berrios and if we draft a top arm in the draft all coming up and being able to get Ks.

 

The Twins dont have a pitcher in the starting roto that averages more than 90mph on their fastball(I didnt look up the exact averages of each pitcher but I watch everygame). Thats pretty sad. Yu Darvish has I think like 6 less Ks than all of our starters combined! How sad is that?

 

BOS has the most Ks in the league right now, they have 166 more than we do. Those 166 more Ks than us are outs where the batter doesnt put the ball in play. All of those outs dont have a chance at being an error, HR, double..... The good news is we finaly have some power arms in our system, who knows what finaly made the Twins realize that not putting the ball in play means less chances of RBIs.

 

Oh yea BTW I was just gonna do a thread on the Twins lack of Ks then I saw you did one ha

[stringer bell]

Agree that strikeouts are preferable, especially if free passes are limited. I will say that ground balls are preferable to fly balls, even in Target Field. The problem has been that Twins' sinkerballers seem no more likely to induce ground balls than most other starting staffs. It seems this year's version of the Twins infield defense has improved (eye test only), but some ground balls are going to get through.

[jokin]

 

To me, the ideal is a Verlander, who pitches to contact until he gets guys in scoring position, then he goes for strikeouts. The key is, he usually avoids solid contact. And he has more than one strikeout pitch to fall back on. So he's very effective in getting strikeouts when he needs to. But pitching to contact allows him to lead the league in innings every year. When he was younger, he tried to strike everybody out. And he had a lot of short starts. When he matured, he learned to dial it back a bit and hit his spots, where he could keep the ball off the fat part of the bat and get a lot of quick outs.

 

Partially right. His K rates are better with RISP than Bases Empty in both 2011 and 2012 for the only times in his career, but so far not so in 2013, or any time before 2011.

 

However, on the broader generalizations you asserted, it's hard to qualify Verlander as MORE of a pitch to contact pitcher in his later years and in his younger years, he was definitely LESS of a "try to strike everybody out" guy. This guy is definitely a strike out pitcher, always was:

 

Verlander 2010-2013:

 

K/9: 9.0 (ranks #6 SP) K%: 25.0% (ranks #4 SP)

 

Verlander 2005-2009:

 

K/9: 7.99 (ranks #28 SP) K%: 21.0% (ranks #28 SP)

[notoriousgod71]

This will all change in the next few years with Gibson, Meyer, May, Berrios and if we draft a top arm in the draft all coming up and being able to get Ks.

 

The Twins dont have a pitcher in the starting roto that averages more than 90mph on their fastball(I didnt look up the exact averages of each pitcher but I watch everygame). Thats pretty sad. Yu Darvish has I think like 6 less Ks than all of our starters combined! How sad is that?

 

BOS has the most Ks in the league right now, they have 166 more than we do. Those 166 more Ks than us are outs where the batter doesnt put the ball in play. All of those outs dont have a chance at being an error, HR, double..... The good news is we finaly have some power arms in our system, who knows what finaly made the Twins realize that not putting the ball in play means less chances of RBIs.

 

Oh yea BTW I was just gonna do a thread on the Twins lack of Ks then I saw you did one ha

 

Fun with numbers?

[old nurse]

In 2010 Carl Pavano went 17-11. WHIP 1.19,ERA 3.75 with a paltry k/9 of 4.3. That year for qualified starters was the third worst K/9. The problem in not so much pitch to contact as it is the poor pitching overall. Generally it is the mistake pitch that gets killed. It is when you have a steady diet of one pitch that the batter can recognize coming out of the pitcher's hand that will get killed. The idea is if they make contact with the bat let it be poor contact. The concept os pitch to contact and reduce walks should be throwing the pitch that is tough to hit. Haven't watched much this year, but I don't hear any raving about great off speed pitching by the Twin's pitchers. Sit on a fastball and kill it.

[snepp]

Incoming nitpick, it was a k/9 of 4.8.

[joeboo_22]

pitch for contact- it helps when you play in a pitchers park in cold weather, but the fact that the OF defense is terrible probably hurts it a bit. With the weather warming up it will be interesting to see how Correia transforms.

[Kobs]

To me, the ideal is a Verlander, who pitches to contact until he gets guys in scoring position, then he goes for strikeouts. The key is, he usually avoids solid contact. And he has more than one strikeout pitch to fall back on. So he's very effective in getting strikeouts when he needs to. But pitching to contact allows him to lead the league in innings every year.

 

This is 100% false. Verlander throws more pitches per batter now than he did when he came in the league. In fact, his career high in pitches per plate appearance came in his best season. He was 12th in the AL in most pitches per plate appearance last season. He leads the league in innings because he is allowed to throw a lot of pitches, doesn't get hurt, doesn't walk a ton of guys, and no one can get a hit off of him.

[jokin]

This is 100% false. Verlander throws more pitches per batter now than he did when he came in the league. In fact, his career high in pitches per plate appearance came in his best season. He was 12th in the AL in most pitches per plate appearance last season. He leads the league in innings because he is allowed to throw a lot of pitches, doesn't get hurt, doesn't walk a ton of guys, and no one can get a hit off of him.

 

And that he strikes out a ton of guys, a strikeout pitcher, always among the league leaders. (See my statistical post up-thread for the numbers). Christy was definitely off on this one with the P2C premise.

[Seth Stohs]

As far as I know, they never encouraged Santana to pitch to contact. But they haven't ever replaced his dominance in the rotation.

 

They didn't have to. He didn't walk many and he threw strikes. He was pitching to contact, but he had such a tremendous changeup that it got swings and misses.

[jay]

You could say it's more of an indication of the quality of your starting staff when your closer is 1 K behind the team lead.