2023 is a Big Season for Recent Top Picks

[Ted Schwerzler]

As Opening Day approaches in 2023, there may be no larger player development storyline than how a few recent first round picks fare. We are getting to a critical juncture for guys taken between 2018-2020, and a couple of them need a breakout in a big way.

 

Image courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

When the Twins signed Donovan Solano to the major-league roster last week, it shuffled things a bit. Nick Gordon is out of options, and the rest of the bench is largely set. Kyle Farmer could find himself as the Opening Day designated hitter, and everything points to Trevor Larnach beginning the season at Triple-A St. Paul.

On one hand, Larnach failing to crack the 26-man roster is representative of depth behind Joey Gallo, Byron Buxton, and Max Kepler. On the other, it’s suboptimal to see a polished college hitter still yet to establish himself in the majors at age-26. The Twins have a concerning string of draft picks, and it starts with Larnach for Derek Falvey and Thad Levine.

Taken 20th overall from Oregon State during the 2018 Major League Baseball draft, Larnach’s selection was largely rooted in his hit tool. Capable of lots of loud contact, Larnach generates significant bat speed and produces very high exit velocities. He is a guy that should hit for plenty of power, and he doesn’t whiff substantially in doing so. At the big league level, we have seen that, but it has come in short bursts as he has struggled to stay healthy.

Larnach has played just 130 major-league games, and his .687 OPS is not close to what he has flashed in small sample sizes. He did show off his arm in left field last season but then was shelved with a significant core muscle injury. Finding a way to force his addition to the 26-man roster this season is a must, and raking at Triple-A may be a start. To stay there this time, he’ll need to be healthy.

Following the selection of Larnach, 2019 top pick Keoni Cavaco was cut from an entirely different cloth. As a late riser and helium pick, Cavaco may have been a reach at 13th overall. He was a shortstop with tools and projection but potentially wouldn’t stick there. Now 187 games into his pro career, he has missed time with injury, missed a season due to the pandemic, and not produced at all.

Cavaco played the hot corner for Fort Myers last season as Noah Miller took over at shortstop. His .672 OPS across 99 games was a career-high, and he showed some power by hitting 11 homers. His 138/22 K/BB at Low-A doesn’t bode well for his future. Cavaco will likely start at High-A Cedar Rapids this season, but it’s not necessarily production warranted. He still will only be 22 years old, but something has to give in order for this pick to turn in some future promise.

Rounding out the group is another loud college bat, Aaron Sabato. A first baseman at North Carolina, Sabato was taken 27th overall in 2020. Like Larnach before him, the draw was a power bat that produced strong exit velocities. That’s not a skill you can teach, and he did a pretty good job of showing plate discipline as an amateur as well. Unfortunately in pro ball, the wheels have all but fallen off.

Across 210 professional games, Sabato owns an ugly .209/.355/.424 slash line. He has hit for the expected power, and he’s done a decent job drawing walks, but he also punched out 142 times last season in just 103 games at Double-A and lower. The strikeout problems aren’t going to get better as the competition increases, and it’s looked more and more likely that he may only be a designated hitter. Finding a way to show some level of plate discipline could go a long way toward avoiding this being a bust pick. Minnesota didn’t wait around with Brent Rooker, and the results there were much more manageable on the farm.

None of these three players are done with their time in the Twins organization after this year, but what their futures look like could largely be influenced by it. Larnach needs to force his way into a crowded picture, and the pair of Cavaco and Sabato need to show there is a reason why they were taken so high.

Not all first-round draft picks pan out, but Minnesota is definitely eyeing better things from this three-year stretch as soon as possible.

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[Trov]

I will agree all three look to be ehhh at best, if Larnach can stay healthy he may produce, but the other two are not looking good so far.  However, that does not mean they have  not had some good picks in those drafts.  Also, you need to always look at who else could have been drafted around them to really judge.  Cavaco was a reach but there is no one after him that has lit it up in the majors as of yet.  

In 2018 we still had plenty of guys that have made majors, Larnach, Jeffers, Sands, Winder.  In 2019 we have a few made majors and several used in trades for major league guys, or top prospects.  Walner, Canentero, Steer, Varland, and a few others.  

It is still early to shut book on Cavaco, as he is only 22, and if he went to college would be his first year in full pro ball.  He was drafted as a project and that has held true. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

The Twins need to have better results in analyzing information and/or providing information about the 5th draft pick in this 2023 draft.  Sabato and Cavaco have not performed well at all and I hope the Twins can learn some things from these drafts. 

[GKuehl]

I still strongly believe in Trevor Larnach as a potential #5 hitter for years to come. When he hasn't been trying to play hurt, he has looked like a hitter with substantial power to all fields who makes enough contact that he isn't the next Brent Rooker.

Larnach's fielding is an underrated aspect of his game -- he's no Max Kepler in the outfield but he's a heck of a lot better than Delmon Young or Josh Willingham have been. 

[gman]

Sometimes, in Larnachs case, management needs to make room for up and comers. Sometimes they need to quit automatically rewarding repeat failures, in the case of Sabaro and Cavaco.

[adorduan]

I liked the Larnach pick, hated the other 2. IMO Larnach is only that will be a MLB player and this is essentially a make or break year for him. Hope he forces his way  on the roster at some point.

[Doctor Gast]

I believe Larnach will make it, he has the talent. Twins have seen his talent & have over depended on him. Therefore trying to rush him too much & too fast. This year they're not depending on him, they're taking him slow and he'll hopefully be healthy & knock down the door to the MLB.

The other two I'd have liked to see something before now.

[jmlease1]

2 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

The Twins need to have better results in analyzing information and/or providing information about the 5th draft pick in this 2023 draft.  Sabato and Cavaco have not performed well at all and I hope the Twins can learn some things from these drafts. 

They seem to have done ok with last year's #1, Brooks Lee.

Baseball draft can be a big crapshoot, unfortunately. While this front office hasn't produced a superstar from their drafts (yet), their 1st round results aren't awful even with some misses on the resume.

• Royce Lewis has debuted in MLB and looked good (can't blame the drafters for the injuries)
• Brent Rooker made it to MLB before being dealt
• Trevor Larnach has made it to MLB (injuries seem to be the only thing holding him back)
• Keoni Cavaco looks like he might bust...but is still only 22
• Matt Wallner has already debuted in MLB
• Aaron Sabato is looking like a bust
• Chase Petty netted us a proven quality MLB starter
• Noah Miller looks like a quality defender at SS at age 20 in A-ball (we'll see if he hits, but seems ok for late in the round)
• Brooks Lee is already in AA, a consensus top 100 prospect, and literally doing everything right

2 busts (so far) out of 9 picks isn't too bad, the Lee pick is looking fantastic, and there's definitely some upside left here. the Cavaco pick is probably the worst one: it was a relatively high choice, there were other good options, and even at the time it looked like a reach. While I didn't love the Sabato pick, it wasn't unreasonable at that point in the draft, and frankly that draft was just a little weird because of the pandemic.

I'm of the opinion that you can't call a player who makes it to MLB with your club a bust. And if you can trade a player drafted in the first round for a current starter it's hard to say he wasn't worth the pick.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

9 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

They seem to have done ok with last year's #1, Brooks Lee.

Baseball draft can be a big crapshoot, unfortunately. While this front office hasn't produced a superstar from their drafts (yet), their 1st round results aren't awful even with some misses on the resume.

• Royce Lewis has debuted in MLB and looked good (can't blame the drafters for the injuries)
• Brent Rooker made it to MLB before being dealt
• Trevor Larnach has made it to MLB (injuries seem to be the only thing holding him back)
• Keoni Cavaco looks like he might bust...but is still only 22
• Matt Wallner has already debuted in MLB
• Aaron Sabato is looking like a bust
• Chase Petty netted us a proven quality MLB starter
• Noah Miller looks like a quality defender at SS at age 20 in A-ball (we'll see if he hits, but seems ok for late in the round)
• Brooks Lee is already in AA, a consensus top 100 prospect, and literally doing everything right

2 busts (so far) out of 9 picks isn't too bad, the Lee pick is looking fantastic, and there's definitely some upside left here. the Cavaco pick is probably the worst one: it was a relatively high choice, there were other good options, and even at the time it looked like a reach. While I didn't love the Sabato pick, it wasn't unreasonable at that point in the draft, and frankly that draft was just a little weird because of the pandemic.

I'm of the opinion that you can't call a player who makes it to MLB with your club a bust. And if you can trade a player drafted in the first round for a current starter it's hard to say he wasn't worth the pick.

Good response, JM. Thanks.

[mikelink45]

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

They seem to have done ok with last year's #1, Brooks Lee.

Baseball draft can be a big crapshoot, unfortunately. While this front office hasn't produced a superstar from their drafts (yet), their 1st round results aren't awful even with some misses on the resume.

• Royce Lewis has debuted in MLB and looked good (can't blame the drafters for the injuries)
• Brent Rooker made it to MLB before being dealt
• Trevor Larnach has made it to MLB (injuries seem to be the only thing holding him back)
• Keoni Cavaco looks like he might bust...but is still only 22
• Matt Wallner has already debuted in MLB
• Aaron Sabato is looking like a bust
• Chase Petty netted us a proven quality MLB starter
• Noah Miller looks like a quality defender at SS at age 20 in A-ball (we'll see if he hits, but seems ok for late in the round)
• Brooks Lee is already in AA, a consensus top 100 prospect, and literally doing everything right

2 busts (so far) out of 9 picks isn't too bad, the Lee pick is looking fantastic, and there's definitely some upside left here. the Cavaco pick is probably the worst one: it was a relatively high choice, there were other good options, and even at the time it looked like a reach. While I didn't love the Sabato pick, it wasn't unreasonable at that point in the draft, and frankly that draft was just a little weird because of the pandemic.

I'm of the opinion that you can't call a player who makes it to MLB with your club a bust. And if you can trade a player drafted in the first round for a current starter it's hard to say he wasn't worth the pick.

I like your optimism, but I do not see Cavaco or Sabato making it which puts them with Rooker.  I am still questioning the Noah Miller pick and sorry we lost Petty.  Not sure they will allow Wallner to get a role in the crowded roster.  So what we have is Lee looking great in one year, Lewis seeming great but with a terrible injury history, Larnach with lots of promise and two years of injury. 

So my grade is incomplete for your list. 

[jmlease1]

18 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

I like your optimism, but I do not see Cavaco or Sabato making it which puts them with Rooker.  I am still questioning the Noah Miller pick and sorry we lost Petty.  Not sure they will allow Wallner to get a role in the crowded roster.  So what we have is Lee looking great in one year, Lewis seeming great but with a terrible injury history, Larnach with lots of promise and two years of injury. 

So my grade is incomplete for your list. 

Wallner has made it to MLB, though. yes, his role this season will be as an injury replacement...but he got there already.

It's fair to question the Miller pick, but he does appear to have the defensive chops to stick at SS, which means his floor is still pretty high even if he doesn't hit because guys who can legit play SS aren't that easy to find (see also, twins, for like a decade). And Miller was an end of round guy, not a top 10 or anything.

Petty might be legit...but we turned him into Sonny Gray and when you consider how many high school arms bust...even if we only get 2 years of Sonny Gray that's 2 years of a proven, quality MLB arm. A legit playoff-caliber starter.

Rooker wasn't great, but he still played for us at the MLB level, so you can't call him a bust, and you can't put him in the same class as Cavaco or Sabato, that's just not fair to him.

I get the desire to downgrade Lewis & Larnach because of their injuries...but those injuries are not a failure of draft evaluation, which is what we're talking about here. how can you predict that Royce Lewis is going to tear his ACL slipping on the ice in TEXAS? And despite that injury costing him a season, despite missing another season of developmental games due to the pandemic (on the back of his knee injury), Royce Lewis crushed it in AAA last season and looked legit in his cup of coffee in MLB before getting hurt again. Honestly, that's a heck of an argument for their evaluation of his sheer talent coming into the draft.

[mikelink45]

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

Wallner has made it to MLB, though. yes, his role this season will be as an injury replacement...but he got there already.

It's fair to question the Miller pick, but he does appear to have the defensive chops to stick at SS, which means his floor is still pretty high even if he doesn't hit because guys who can legit play SS aren't that easy to find (see also, twins, for like a decade). And Miller was an end of round guy, not a top 10 or anything.

Petty might be legit...but we turned him into Sonny Gray and when you consider how many high school arms bust...even if we only get 2 years of Sonny Gray that's 2 years of a proven, quality MLB arm. A legit playoff-caliber starter.

Rooker wasn't great, but he still played for us at the MLB level, so you can't call him a bust, and you can't put him in the same class as Cavaco or Sabato, that's just not fair to him.

I get the desire to downgrade Lewis & Larnach because of their injuries...but those injuries are not a failure of draft evaluation, which is what we're talking about here. how can you predict that Royce Lewis is going to tear his ACL slipping on the ice in TEXAS? And despite that injury costing him a season, despite missing another season of developmental games due to the pandemic (on the back of his knee injury), Royce Lewis crushed it in AAA last season and looked legit in his cup of coffee in MLB before getting hurt again. Honestly, that's a heck of an argument for their evaluation of his sheer talent coming into the draft.

I can only repeat myself. Wait and see. I hope they're all great. 

[Rosterman]

Larnach, like Celestino, was pushed too soon. Maybe a year at AAA will do him good. But, he has to worry about falling in the prospect chart, and the Twins may bump him for finding space in the outfield for the likes of Lewis or Martin.

A solid season in the minors can also raise the potential for tradebait for any number of high-end $$$ draftees. Some teams like to swoop in and get a guy that anotehr team spent big bucks on in signing.

Of course, there is always Wander Javier, too - a $4 million write off by the Twins who managed to go thru two Rule 5 drafts before becoming a minor league free agent after the briefest of time at AAA St. Paul - now with the Padres.

Back to Larnach - the Twins with no DH meant there was hope that Larnach could've started for the team. Now he will be in combat with Wallner in St. Paul, as well as a host of minor league free agent outfielders who, hopefully, won't make a Twins call just because of lack of 40-man spots.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

It seems like Cavaco and Sabato are already toast -- no reports of injuries, but no good production either.  They would both seem to be on thin ice.  I think Larnach still has a great deal of hope.  When he has been healthy for brief periods Larnach has hit well and been a solid defender.  Labeling him a bust is certainly premature, and if he doesn't make it because of injuries, that's not on the draft evaluators. 

[Trov]

Why does every say Cavaco is a complete bust at age 22?  I am not saying he will be anything amazing, and I am not expecting anything at this point, but he is only 22.  He still has plenty of room to grow and develop.  He actually does not turn 22 until mid-season.  There is a guy on our MLB roster that most are very high on, but really until his age 22 season was barely on anyone's radar.  He was not a first round pick, but a second round so not like he came out of no where either.  

People need to remember he fully missed a year of baseball in 2020, at age 19.  His numbers last year were not good, but he made some decent improvements.  He still has only played in 187 pro games, had 758 plate appearances.  Yes, he needs to improve, but say he should be written off because he did not come out blazing is crazy.  Not every High School player will light the world on fire.  Look how long it took Gordon to settle in.  Cavaco has dealt with injures over his career. 

Sabato I am not as hopeful, as he was a college bat, 2 years older than Cavaco, and has more games and plate appearances as well. I will agree with both this is an important season to see some improvement, but to write off either, but more importantly a 22 year old with barely a seasons worth of games since being drafted is a little early.  

[DocBauer]

As long as he's healthy, and so far there is nothing chronic in his injuries, I have no doubts about Larnach. While his ML numbers are skewed toward the negative based on playing a few weeks fighting injury, he's look good to great. He's got a real chance to be really good in either corner for another 6-7-8 yrs. He's still only 26 and debuted, fairly well initially, at 24.

100% healthy and over his abdominal issue from last year...even if he starts the season at AAA due to roster crunch as well as possible ramp up time....same for AK, BTW...I just don't have doubts about his future.

Cavaco is young enough, athletic enough, they aren't going to give up on him yet. He doesn't turn 22 until after the season starts, and it looks like SS is out of the equation, and he's done little yet to justify his draft status, but I'd still move him to CR to begin 2023. The FSL is known to be a tough hitters league. That's a good thing in regard to the idea if you can perform there, you should only do as well or better when you advance. But maybe he just needs a new/different challenge and opportunity. He's absolutely got to start showing more. But when you have an athlete that young, you don't just cut bait after a couple disappointing seasons. And he doesn't have to be protected yet by any means. BUT, if he doesn't show improvement in 2023 with this new challenge, he might simply be squeezed out by other prospects.

I just don't know what to think about Sabato. He was a later 1st round picked based mostly on being a bat first 1B/DH. But I'd bet you'd have a hard time finding a scout who didn't think he would hit, based on his college career. But he just hasn't done so! I'd say he has eye problems, but he still takes a bunch of walks. Is he just too passive in his approach? Walks and OB and power in milb are great. But if you can't HIT at the milb level, what hope do you have at AAA or MLB? His selection might be debatable, but the entire 2020 draft was a stranger crap shoot than most years. But the simple truth is the player the Twins drafted has simply not been the player they got so far. His 2023 at AA is going to make or break him. Unlike Cavaco, he's not athletic, and is 2-3yrs older. He doesn't have to hit .300. But if he can't hit AT LEAST in the .240-.250 range while maintaining his power and solid OB% in 2023, I think he's done.