How Much Does the Extra-Innings Runner Hurt the Twins

[Ted Schwerzler]

This offseason Major League Baseball decided to make rather sweeping rule changes. While we’ll see new base sizes, a pitch clock, and limited shifting, it’s the rule 2020 brought us that may continue to shake things up the most. Rob Manfred decided a runner will forever start on second during extra-innings for the regular season, and it’s a bit curious how much that could hurt the Minnesota Twins.

 

Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

Back in 2020, after a late start to the season following Covid-19, Major League Baseball decided to make doubleheaders seven-inning games and attempt to limit their length by placing a “ghost runner” on second base during extra innings. The pairing had some validity as rosters were tighter and a risk of availability constantly plagued teams.

Now, as we have adapted to the changes on a human and worldly level, it appears that Major League Baseball will at least keep a different set of rules for longer baseball games. The problem is that not all teams will benefit equally.

Yes, every single organization will be playing with the same parameters, but the outcomes can’t be created equal. Baseball’s new extra-inning rule is largely similar to the shootout in hockey. Seen by National Hockey League purists as eyewash, the shootout is more for a casual fan looking for an extra bit of excitement. It certainly waters down the outcome, however, as the game is all of a sudden determined through different parameters. Hockey does a decent job addressing this by awarding the losing team with a single point for making it to overtime.

Baseball’s problem is that the standings simply aren’t set up to reflect an outcome of anything less than a win or loss. It would be overly drastic for the league to adopt a points system, but the sport has also watered down the value of a win once getting to extra innings.

If there is something that has always set baseball apart, it is that the sport is played without a clock. The only thing guaranteed in baseball is that you have 27 outs to be better than the other team. In extra-innings, each side traded opportunities with three outs at a time. Now though, it becomes who can immediately capitalize off of a manufactured scenario.

Last season Rocco Baldelli’s club played 15 extra-inning games In them, they went 5-10 with just a -3 run differential. The year prior, in 2021, Minnesota played 23 extra-inning games and posted a +2 run differential. During the first season of a runner being placed on second base, Minnesota was 3-1 with a +1 run differential. As a whole, the volatility of outcomes appears to be drastic.

It is not a benefit to routinely play extra-inning games. With a 26-man roster and only 40 players to choose from at any given time, racking up lengthy results isn’t a sustainable path to health. What is problematic is that results are determined differently once getting to those extra-inning games, and not every team will have the same amount of instances to compare.

Carrying a strong nine-inning record, but dropping games in which you have a runner start on second to open an inning seems counterproductive in evaluating the overall talent of a club. On the flip side, a team finding ways to consistently produce when given the advantage of a placed runner could make up for a lacking performance in standard length games.

Having a “ghost runner” certainly isn’t a rule change as substantial as having robot umpires would be, but it may be the one with the greatest impact on the win column. Playing the game differently in the regular season as opposed to the postseason is something both the NHL and NFL have done for a long time. In both of those cases though, the league’s evaluate said outcomes differently. Baseball isn’t going to have ties, and you aren’t receiving half a win for an extra-inning loss.

When a strong extra-inning team squeaks into the postseason by a win or two against a team that didn’t go past nine innings very often, this discussion could get that much more interesting.

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[stringer bell]

The rules are the rules. The Twins may have already made roster changes that will benefit them in extra inning games. First, they have at least one backup OF who could pinch run (Taylor and/or Gordon) and they have what profiles to an excellent bench with pinch hit possibilities to give a platoon advantage in those run-scoring opportunities. 

I would hope there would be improvement in those situational hitting instances in extras. That was the most glaring problem last year. 

[Minderbinder]

This is King Manfred's rule change I hate the most.  Let's shorten the game even further (given the outcome volatility issue) and just flip a coin three times....

[LA VIkes Fan]

While this rule isn't my favorite, I understand why it was adopted. I also think this rule ahs another positive consequence that isn't mentioned enough - the elimination of the give away game the day after that 12 or 13 inning nightmare where the teams have no pitching left. Even worse, if that long game is the last one of the series both teams are badly handicapped going into their next series by having to rest MLB pitchers and call up MiLB pitchers.    

But let's be honest - why this rule? Because baseball needs to be faster and have more action to be competitive as an entertainment form. Now every extra inning is exciting with the possibility of a scoring play. You know, the kind of things you go to a game or watch on TV to see. All of these rule changes are to speed up and invigorate play. Every other professional sport makes changes to keep and increase fans' interest. It's about time baseball admitted it was losing in the marketplace to of all things the NBA and even the NHL, and made some changes to move toward what the fans want. The NFL is the most successful pro sports league on the planet in part because they tweak the game to make it more exciting. Its ok if baseball does the same.  

 

[Nine of twelve]

4 hours ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

Having a “ghost runner” certainly isn’t a rule change as substantial as having robot umpires would be...

 

Correction: Using robot umpires is NOT a change in the rules of the game. The rules remain the same. The only change is in the method of determining whether a pitch follows the rule to be called a strike or the rule to be called a ball.

[Nine of twelve]

51 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

But let's be honest - why this rule? Because baseball needs to be faster and have more action to be competitive as an entertainment form. Now every extra inning is exciting with the possibility of a scoring play. 

If this is what the sport "needs" then it should not be limited to extra innings. Start every inning with a runner on base. Of course that would probably make the games even longer because there would be more scoring.

[Blyleven2011]

Not a fan of the extra inning rule  , it is not really earning the win ...

It's been in place since 2020 and it still is taking time to get used to it  ...

The games of yesteryear were the greatest  , baseball has gotten boring recently  ...

Hope our manager can find a better way to play extra innings with strategy  ...

 

[Rosterman]

You have to have a pitcher comfortable with starting an inning with guys on base, and hopefully match-up with the players on deck. I am often surprised that don't start with walking a batter. Be interesting to see if the running game is a high priority this season.

The flip-side is that both teams get this same situation. So you better have a solid bench. I'm going to miss Sandy "The Bunt" Leon. Somehow, the Twins seemed to have trouble moving that guy over to third, compared to the team they were facing. 5-10 in extra inning games was a kilelr for the Twins last season. Griffon Jax seemed to be the one that suffered most. And it doesn't show up in the pitcher's record, ass the runner scoring doesn't count against their ERA.

But until baseball can handle tie games, we will have this......

 

[Nine of twelve]

7 hours ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

Having a “ghost runner” certainly isn’t a rule change as substantial as having robot umpires would be...

 

 

3 hours ago, Nine of twelve said:

Correction: Using robot umpires is NOT a change in the rules of the game. The rules remain the same. The only change is in the method of determining whether a pitch follows the rule to be called a strike or the rule to be called a ball.

And I'll also say that I think robo umps would have little to no effect on how the game is played. There may be a few more walks and/or strikeouts at first until the players adjust but after that the biggest change will be positive, with more consistent and more accurate calls and less griping directed at Angel Hernandez and the like.

[TaterTot]

Man, I though that they were getting rid of that rule, and I was ready to say good riddance. I guess I was wrong. It just dosn't feel right, and I liked 18 inning games where they played till 1am once in a while.

[jkcarew]

So how does the rule present a disadvantage to the Twins?

Because they can’t put balls in play or hit the ball to the right side of the field when they need too? Because they’re a poor base-running team? Because their bullpen lacks quality in its depth?

That’s on the club, not the rule.

FWIW…The 7-inning dh games bother me WAY more than the extra-inning rule.

[Seth Stohs]

How much does it hurt the Twins?

Exactly the same as every other team... As others point out, the rule is the rule for everyone. Moving people over and driving them in is the goal. 

I used to be a traditionalist. I still would like to see them play the 10th inning (or even the 11th) straight up, but I don't mind this rule at all at this point. 

[terrydactyls]

I am in agreement with the people who, if there must be a ghost runner, prefer that it comes into effect after a few innings of "real" baseball (that number is TBD).

[dxpavelka]

Shouldn't hurt the Twins any more than it does any other team.  If it does, that's on them.

[dxpavelka]

41 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

I am in agreement with the people who, if there must be a ghost runner, prefer that it comes into effect after a few innings of "real" baseball (that number is TBD).

That number has already been determined.  It's 9.

[Pat]

The major issue for the Twins is that their station to station offensive philosophy doesn’t help them to do what is necessary to manufacture a run which would win them an extra inning game with the ghost runner rule . 

[Trov]

The rule does not hurt the Twins.  The title suggest the rule is better for some teams versus others, like the Twins.  The rule is the same across the board and affects everyone the same.  Just because the Twins have been worse in those games does not mean it hurts them.  I think the team plans to never play them, and will use all their good pitchers in tie games, hoping there will be no extra inning game, then they use a lessor pen guy to pitch.  

[Otaknam]

Yawn! This column is kind of meandering and I don’t think proves the point that it was trying to make: that a ghost runner in extra innings is a detriment to the Twins. Every season is different, with different rosters. The Twins problem is Rocco, who doesn’t play old school baseball of hit and run, steal a base, move runners up with a productive out, or lay down a bunt.  And he burns up his bullpen by yanking starters early, so even losing an extra inning game could be of some benefit if it saves his overworked bullpen. 

[chaderic20]

Quote

Last season Rocco Baldelli’s club played 15 extra-inning games In them, they went 5-10 with just a -3 run differential. The year prior, in 2021, Minnesota played 23 extra-inning games and posted a +2 run differential. During the first season of a runner being placed on second base, Minnesota was 3-1 with a +1 run differential. As a whole, the volatility of outcomes appears to be drastic.

Count me in among those that say the rule hurts the Twins no more/less than anyone else. This paragraph is just laughable. Run differentials of -3, +2, and +1 is "drastic volatility of outcomes"? Lets see, that means over the whole history of the rule the Twins are at a differential of...doing the math...oh, exactly 0 runs compared to their opponents. Wow, that really must have hurt them!

The only way this "hurts" a team is if they have a worse bullpen, or their hitters aren't as good at driving in a runner, or in other words, if they're the worse team.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

No more impact on the Twins than anyone else.

I've said this elsewhere, I have no problem with this rule.  Long games can negatively impact teams for many days afterwards, with reliever and catchers taking the brunt of things.

As MLB systematically takes removes all of the strategy decisions from the game (full-time DH, no more LOOGY, pitch clocks eliminating most of the surprise elements) this is one area where teams actually have to make decisions.

[specialiststeve]

Folks,  stop whining about the rule... It is in place and we have to deal with it.. 

As far as it hurting the Twins and why the Twins have taken it in the shorts since the rule is in place as Baldelli and the coaching staff has forgot and stopped focus on fundamentals of "small ball". He has stated he will adjust .. we shall see. 

Old school... man on second... bunt over to 3rd.. 2 shots at a base hit... sac fly ... error.. put pressure on the defense to make a play... Baldelli and much of baseball... Swing from the heals and see what happens. Just bad baseball. 

Am hoping and praying that the new rules bring back movement and actual baseball "activity"... Bunting... hit and run.. stolen bases.. all the lost parts of the game. 

 

[stringer bell]

I think with a larger sample size that the "ghost runner" rule would hurt the Twins because of the makeup of the team and the flaws therein. They were far below average the past two years at advancing runners with outs and hitting with runners in scoring position. They were noted as among the very worst base running teams and their team speed is quite a bit below league average so stealing a run to score a win was pretty unlikely to happen. When it comes to the pitching side, their candidates for pitching the extra innings were not high velocity and strikeout guys and mostly right handed, so the chance of advancing a runner on a pulled ground out would be a bit higher than average. 

That said, the rule is the same for everyone and really the key thing will be good hitting with runners on and a deep enough bullpen that the guy who goes out for the tenth or eleventh is as good a shot as the opponents for throwing a goose egg. 

[stringer bell]

As far as strategy for extra innings goes, I don't think a bunt is in order very often if you are on the road. First of all, playing for a one-run lead when the opponent will get a runner on second with none out really isn't a great percentage play. Secondly, there aren't many good-enough bunters to get that runner to third and quite often two strikes or an out will be given up without advancing the runner. Third, and probably most important, getting the runner to third with one out is far from a guarantee that he'll score. Strikeouts are at historic highs, infield flies seem to be up as well and I have to believe that it is far less than 50% of the time that when a runner on third base and one out the runner is scored without benefit of a hit.

[farmerguychris]

Don't like the rule, but it doesn't hurt us more than any other team since we're all playing by the same rules - we just need to do a better job of scoring runs in these games as we'll certainly have a bunch of them again.

[Jocko87]

On 2/27/2023 at 12:41 PM, specialiststeve said:

Folks,  stop whining about the rule... It is in place and we have to deal with it.. 

As far as it hurting the Twins and why the Twins have taken it in the shorts since the rule is in place as Baldelli and the coaching staff has forgot and stopped focus on fundamentals of "small ball". He has stated he will adjust .. we shall see. 

Old school... man on second... bunt over to 3rd.. 2 shots at a base hit... sac fly ... error.. put pressure on the defense to make a play... Baldelli and much of baseball... Swing from the heals and see what happens. Just bad baseball. 

Am hoping and praying that the new rules bring back movement and actual baseball "activity"... Bunting... hit and run.. stolen bases.. all the lost parts of the game. 

 

There were several times last year where pushing that one run across wins a damn game.  I counted 6 in a quick scan and it felt low from my memory watching. It was painful watching a home run approach when old school would win the game.
 

I’m hopeful that the rule being permanent will force teams to look deeper into the analytics of the situation and train some situational hitting back in.  My hypothesis would be that when you really dig into the analytics of getting that run in to win a game the old school way will fare really well.  Stealing 3rd is also going to be very popular in extra innings if you have a good bench move available. Taylor might be that guy on his off days and Lewis if he’s able to run free.  It doesn’t have to be Terrance Gore anymore. 
 

To me the analytics aren’t so much about processing data, it’s about which data to use in a given situation. Rocco left me confused many times last year in these situations. I feel the same way in football when they throw a goal line fade when three sneaks are available. Just score the damn run.