Caleb Thielbar, and Why Age Doesn't Equal Potential

[Ted Wiedmann]

Caleb Thielbar's resurgence can help us change our perception of youth and potential.

Image courtesy of © Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

Caleb Thielbar just had his best career season in the Major Leagues. If you were unfamiliar with Thielbar's journey to the Big Leagues, you may think he would be a failed starter that figured things out in the bullpen or perhaps a young pitcher with a live arm that learned how to get MLB hitters out. However, as Twins fans, we know he is neither. Caleb Thielbar pitched 2022 as a 35-year-old that should have been seeing the twilight of his career in view but instead had his best season and made several improvements. You don't typically see that from someone at age 35. 

Thielbar broke into the Majors as a sinker-slider lefty specialist, a role that is becoming obsolete in MLB. He didn't strike out many hitters, and his fastball mainly sat in the upper 80s. He had an eephus-like curveball that would range into the mid-60s that was always fun to watch hitters buckle at, but it was more of a gimmick pitch. 

Thielbar was far from that pitcher in 2022. He ditched the sinker in favor of exclusively four seamers, ramped up the velocity, and transformed his fluttering curveball into a bat-missing machine. Since his return to the Twins, Thielbar has turned himself into one of the most dominant left-handed relievers in all of baseball. 

In 2022 Thielbar saw career bests in fastball, slider, and curveball velocity at 92.8, 81.3, and 73.0 MPH, respectively. Compared to his age 28 season in 2015, the first year Baseball Savant had spin rate data, Thielbar also has seen his spin rates in his fastball jump from 2,091 RPMs in 2015 to 2,298 RPMs in 2022. He made similar progress in his breaking pitches: his slider went from 1,963 RPMs in 2015 to 2,368 in 2022, and his curveball went from 2,127 to 2,455. 

As a result of these pitch improvements, Thielbar's strikeout rate in his most recent two seasons is more than 10% higher than that of his first two seasons. These are not typical improvements from someone entering their mid to late 30s. 

This data is nice, but how has it resulted in his pitching? I mentioned earlier that Thielbar was a premier left-handed reliever in 2022, and here is why. According to Baseball Savant, Thielbar completed 2022 in the 99th percentile in average exit velocity against, 100th percentile in hard hit%, 94th percentile in xwOBA, and 89th percentile in xSLG. He was one of baseball's best pitchers in limiting hard contact. His improved pitch physicals also helped him miss bats; Thielbar finished 93rd percentile in K% and 80th percentile in swing and miss%. 

While batted ball data is valuable, it only tells part of the story. Sometimes results can still be underwhelming despite excellent peripherals. (Shoutout, Max Kepler). Fortunately for Thielbar, this is not the case. Using Fangraphs' splits tool, we can see Thielbar finished top ten among left-handed relievers that threw at least 50 innings in FIP (4th 2.42), xFIP (7th 3.07), K% (5th 32.7%), and K%-BB% (4th 25.3%). He also finished in the top 20 in batting average against (20th), OBP against (11th), SLG against (14th), and wOBA against (11th). 

Potential is a tricky thing to figure out. So many factors go into player development; we only see a small percentage of those as a fan. Perhaps Caleb Thielbar can help us change our perception of youth and potential. You don't have to be 22 years old to get better at baseball, and just because you hit age 30 doesn't mean you have to get worse. Maybe Caleb Thieblar can be a lesson for us when projecting a player's upside because, in 2013, I don't think anyone saw this coming from him.

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[old nurse]

Baseball has always had pitchers that get better with age. Mechanics are not an age related thing. Learning new things need not be an age related thing. The limiting thing has been wear and tear on the body. How your genetic gifts handle the stress over time is an individual thing.

[mikelink45]

Did Jamie Moyer help you with this essay?  Sometimes a pitcher just gets smarter as well as developing their pitches.  Thielbar is an excellent story - thanks for writing it.

[Doctor Gast]

53 minutes ago, old nurse said:

Baseball has always had pitchers that get better with age. Mechanics are not an age related thing. Learning new things need not be an age related thing. The limiting thing has been wear and tear on the body. How your genetic gifts handle the stress over time is an individual thing.

It took Thielbar to leave MLB, but he never gave up baseball. He figured it out playing small ball. . Some find the key early, some later & some give up & never do. Fortunately Thielbar never gave up & he came back on the Twins radar & is pitching his best stuff for us. Have another great season Caleb!

[ziggy]

In an interview last year Theilbar stated that in his first go-round with the Twins he was pitching with an injury which limited what he could do. Now the injury is healed so he can pitch however he wants to. How old was Jim Kaat when he retired?

[rwilfong86]

Thielbar is a guy that is easy to root for.

[DJL44]

Caleb Thielbar has been a great comeback story. He should be very proud of what he has accomplished. Still, time eventually wins with everyone and the organization should be ready to cut him loose if his production slips.

[miracleb]

Since his return to the Twins, Thielbar has turned himself into one of the most dominant left-handed relievers in all of baseball. 

******************************************

That comment is a little aggressive.   He was basically a couple of homeruns away from a 4.0 ERA last year would then be "on the bubble" to make the team this year.  I don't know how realistic it is for Caleb to have another 3.5 ERA this year.  I am hopeful that he does!

[theBOMisthebomb]

The pride of Dakota County! This is a great story of perseverance that should be made into a movie. Also, nice to see Caleb make some decent money ($1.3 MM) in 2022 and scheduled to make $2.4 MM in 2023. 

[arby58]

55 minutes ago, miracleb said:

Since his return to the Twins, Thielbar has turned himself into one of the most dominant left-handed relievers in all of baseball. 

******************************************

That comment is a little aggressive.   He was basically a couple of homeruns away from a 4.0 ERA last year would then be "on the bubble" to make the team this year.  I don't know how realistic it is for Caleb to have another 3.5 ERA this year.  I am hopeful that he does!

You could say that about any relief pitcher, since their innings pitched are a smaller sample size than starters. That said, the data across the board is solid - and ERA is really not the stat to rely upon, particularly for relievers.

[saviking]

I never would have guessed he could have gotten his era down to a respectable level after the horrendous start he had .. He's a mentally tough dude .. 

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, arby58 said:

You could say that about any relief pitcher, since their innings pitched are a smaller sample size than starters. That said, the data across the board is solid - and ERA is really not the stat to rely upon, particularly for relievers.

Right! His job is to get guys out in jams & not give up HR that inflate ERA to 4.00……..speaking of “any relief pitcher”…maybe we should inform López & Pagan about this rule of thumb!

[JD-TWINS]

Experienced & mentally tough! That may be where the comparisons to Moyer stop though. First, he’s 35 not 43….,,,,understand your thought process though.

I think the BIG difference between Caleb & Jamie is Caleb’s stuff has improved, considerably……….higher velocity…….higher spin rates. Moyer was not much stuff - slower & slower velocity - almost all guile!

IMO.

[Launch Angle]

1 hour ago, arby58 said:

You could say that about any relief pitcher, since their innings pitched are a smaller sample size than starters. That said, the data across the board is solid - and ERA is really not the stat to rely upon, particularly for relievers.

Lol, seriously? If he wouldn't have given up a few homeruns last year, he could have had an ERA under 3... It goes both ways.

[Brandon]

Since he unlocked his stuff with Falvine would that make him one of their successes for developing pitchers?

also if he can pitch through age 40 season he could end up with over 600 games for his career which is above average for a reliever.  Through age 42 and he can approach 750.  That’s more than most relievers who came up in their 20’s and stayed.  
 

I hope he can finish his career in Minnesota.  That would be cool.  

[2wins87]

3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Caleb Thielbar has been a great comeback story. He should be very proud of what he has accomplished. Still, time eventually wins with everyone and the organization should be ready to cut him loose if his production slips.

If he continues to pitch well this year I'm guessing his arb number would be about $4 maybe $4.5 million next year as a 37 year old.  Based on how the front office usually approaches the bullpen I would guess that will already be a close decision for them.

He's been fun to root for though, so I'm hoping he has two more good years in him, giving him a good payday (by non professional athlete standards at least) before likely retirement.

[2wins87]

3 hours ago, miracleb said:

Since his return to the Twins, Thielbar has turned himself into one of the most dominant left-handed relievers in all of baseball. 

******************************************

That comment is a little aggressive.   He was basically a couple of homeruns away from a 4.0 ERA last year would then be "on the bubble" to make the team this year.  I don't know how realistic it is for Caleb to have another 3.5 ERA this year.  I am hopeful that he does!

This is a weird way of looking at his season last year.  He actually did have an ERA over 10 in April last year (which I think is fair to attribute partly to some rough luck).  Getting his ERA down to where it was at the end of the year did require him to be pretty much dominant for most of the rest of the year (2.38 ERA from May on).  Even with a few more home runs in May through September it would have been a very solid stretch of relief pitching.

[jkcarew]

The thing that appears to have flipped is his ability to K right-handed hitters as well as lefties. And my guess is that this wasn’t ‘unlocked’ by the Twins, but was learning from things he picked up experimenting during his two years in independent ball and two years in the minors after that. Good story.

[Ted Wiedmann]

On 2/26/2023 at 8:27 AM, miracleb said:

Since his return to the Twins, Thielbar has turned himself into one of the most dominant left-handed relievers in all of baseball. 

******************************************

That comment is a little aggressive.   He was basically a couple of homeruns away from a 4.0 ERA last year would then be "on the bubble" to make the team this year.  I don't know how realistic it is for Caleb to have another 3.5 ERA this year.  I am hopeful that he does!

He was top ten among left handed relievers in several pitching categories. And every reliever is a couple homeruns away from drastically different results. 

[Ted Wiedmann]

23 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Experienced & mentally tough! That may be where the comparisons to Moyer stop though. First, he’s 35 not 43….,,,,understand your thought process though.

I think the BIG difference between Caleb & Jamie is Caleb’s stuff has improved, considerably……….higher velocity…….higher spin rates. Moyer was not much stuff - slower & slower velocity - almost all guile!

IMO.

I agree I'm not a fan of the Moyer comparison. Should not discount Moyer's career as as starter, multiple CY Young top ten finishes along with an all-star appearance and WS championship. Thielbar is putting together a nice career but not even in the same breath as Moyer's. 

[miracleb]

Since his return to the Twins, Thielbar has turned himself into one of the most dominant left-handed relievers in all of baseball. 

******************************************

That comment is a little aggressive.   He was basically a couple of homeruns away from a 4.0 ERA last year would then be "on the bubble" to make the team this year.  I don't know how realistic it is for Caleb to have another 3.5 ERA this year.  I am hopeful that he does!

Expand  

He was top ten among left handed relievers in several pitching categories. And every reliever is a couple homeruns away from drastically different results. 

*******************************

Top ten in several categories doesn't make him one of the most dominant left-handed relievers in all of baseball.........LOL!

[JD-TWINS]

On 2/26/2023 at 1:28 PM, 2wins87 said:

This is a weird way of looking at his season last year.  He actually did have an ERA over 10 in April last year (which I think is fair to attribute partly to some rough luck).  Getting his ERA down to where it was at the end of the year did require him to be pretty much dominant for most of the rest of the year (2.38 ERA from May on).  Even with a few more home runs in May through September it would have been a very solid stretch of relief pitching.

His SO per 9 innings for 6 year career are 9.6 and his cumulative ERA over those 6 years is 3.01 & his won- loss is 18-7. Pretty solid as a body of work!

[Riverbrian]

Some players struggle and keep getting chance after chance to make it regardless of performance.

Some players get the job done and lose their jobs regardless of performance. 

Decisions need to be made. Front offices get this type of thing wrong all the time.  

Caleb Thielbar is one of those players who got the job done and was rewarded with a string of DFA's for his efforts. 

Check his numbers majors and minors. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/thielca01.shtml