Reevaluating the Twins Designated Hitter Strategy for 2023

[Cody Christie]

The Twins don't have a player like Nelson Cruz or Jim Thome to plug into the designated hitter spot daily. So, what does that mean for the team's DH role during the 2023 campaign?

Image courtesy of Jim Cowsert-USA TODAY Sports

Throughout the Twins' history, some tremendous players have filled the designated hitter role. For some players like Tony Oliva, the shift to DH was necessary because of mounting injuries. For other players like Paul Molitor and Jim Thome, it was a line-up spot to fill near the end of a Hall of Fame career. The Twins don't have a player like that on the 2023 roster, so their approach to the DH role will look similar to recent seasons. 

Rocco Baldelli told reporters, "We're going to rotate the DH. You could probably almost name every guy out there in the regular lineup that's going to have some time at DH. There's a lot of them. We're going to have some options." He went on to say, "I actually think it's a good way to
use the DH slot. If you have Nelson Cruz like we've had or David Ortiz and a few guys that really fit in that spot well, you're going to go with guys like that. But I think for most clubs the best way to do it is rotate that thing around."

Keeping Players In the Line-Up
Since Nelson Cruz's departure, the Twins have left the DH spot open to provide a partial rest day for a player while keeping his bat in the line-up. Last season, Minnesota started 15 different players at DH, including Luis Arraez (34), Byron Buxton (34), and Gary Sanchez (32), starting more than 30 games at DH. Arraez and Buxton were battling injuries, so it was a way to take stress off their bodies on the defensive side of the ball. 

Buxton made it clear this spring that he doesn't like serving in the DH role. "Mentally, it's very hard," he said because he has to stay warm between at-bats. He's not just watching the game from the dugout and waiting for his turn to bat. Buxton is down in the cage, taking more swings than if he were playing in the outfield. Even with this disdain for the role, Buxton will likely lead the team in appearances as the DH. The Twins are a better team with him in the line-up, and the DH spot allows him to make sure his body is prepared for the rigors of a 162-game schedule. 

Besides Buxton, plenty of other veterans will see time at DH in 2023, including Jorge Polanco, Carlos Correa, Joey Gallo, Max Kepler, and Nick Gordon. Those players are the tip of the iceberg for the DH role, especially if the Twins want to employ different line-up strategies. 

Platoon Options
The Twins can also utilize a platoon strategy depending on the pitching match-up. Nick Gordon showed tremendous improvements with his power numbers in last season's second half, as his OPS improved by 76 points. As a lefty, most of his damage came against right-handed pitchers by hitting .289/.329/.465 (.793). Gordon is out of minor league options, so he will be on the Opening Day roster, and DH at-bats might be one way to get him into the line-up regularly. 

Other infielders can benefit from being used in a platoon situation. Kyle Farmer looked to be the team's starting shortstop before the club re-signed Correa. Now a bench player, Farmer will get starts around the infield, but he should be in the line-up whenever the team faces a lefty. Last season, he destroyed lefties by hitting .309/.380/.568 (.948) with 19 extra-base hits in 139 at-bats. 

Minnesota officially added Donovan Solano to the big-league roster in the last week. The 35-year-old has averaged around 90 games per season over the last two years. As a righty, his OPS was 66 points higher (.770 OPS vs. .704 OPS) when facing left-handed pitchers last season. The Solano signing has multiple facets, including him getting time at DH and first base. 

Other DH Options
The Twins have a trio of young corner outfielders trying to earn time on the big-league roster. Alex Kirilloff is penciled in as the everyday first baseman, but he is slowly returning from offseason wrist surgery. Minnesota will be cautious with him throughout the spring, and there's a chance he will need regular days off to start the year. After the Twins signed Solano, Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner seem destined for St. Paul. Both bats will impact the big-league roster this season, and some of those appearances will come in a DH role. 

Leaving the DH spot open provides the Twins with flexibility, but there isn't a player that would be considered a big bat off the bench. This DH strategy may work for the Twins, but they have to hope it can keep more players healthy in 2023. Outside of Buxton, who do you think makes the most appearances as the designated hitter? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

 

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[Doctor Gast]

I was surprised that Arraez led the list of DHing. IMO Gallo, Kepler and Polanco will not see much time at DH

[miracleb]

Lefty/righty match ups will be the name of the game.  This gives Rocco more flexibility in "resting" guys....which I like.  Of course, screw flexibility, if you can find Nelson Cruz again.....

[Blyleven2011]

If the brain trust believes to start Polanco off slowly because he's not fully healthy  in the legs he will be a primary dh as he is a switch hitter ...

That would be my plan if Polanco  isn't quite 100 percent  ...

Otherwise it will be a committee of players ...

Let's hope Buxton can play the field and just be a centerfielder  ...

[arby58]

36 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I was surprised that Arraez led the list of DHing. IMO Gallo, Kepler and Polanco will not see much time at DH

I tend to agree, especially with Kepler and Gallo, as a big part of their value is as defensive outfielders.

[specialiststeve]

I will preach in every format here that Polanco should be the everyday DH. Switch hitter with ongoing injury issues. Plug him in at the 3 spot and play. Imagine if he could play 155 games. We have a ton of options at 2B. This is just too logical... 

 

[Squirrel]

I like the rotating DH … it will allow for greater flexibility for match ups and rest days. I’ve always thought having a DH is a wasted clog on the 26-man … one player who does nothing else but hit in the 3 or 4 spot but never plays in the field. 

[Eris]

Any player whose contributes negative value defensively is a primary candidate to see more time at DH. This explains why Luis Arraez is towards the top of games played at DH. Based on last years defense, Jose Miranda might see more time at DH. Hoping he plays solid D at third. 

[mikelink45]

I like a regular DH which means I would have had Gallo, Wallner or Larnach there, but I truly hope Buxton does not have the most ABs there. 

[HoskenPowell]

26 minutes ago, arby58 said:

I tend to agree, especially with Kepler and Gallo, as a big part of their value is as defensive outfielders.

If they perform like last year their ONLY value will be defense.

[gunnarthor]

Generally, I'm ok with the DH position being passed around. The Twins have enough offensive players that they'll need to find at-bats for all of them.

[Jack K]

I hope Buxton leads the Twins with DH days.  It will mean the DH spot reduced the odds of him getting injured and nobody should be disappointed with that,

 

[TopGunn#22]

I had not really considered Polanco but I can see the logic in what SpecialistSteve said.  I agree with Gallo and Kepler seeing little time at DH.  When they play, their defense is a positive.  Having a Molitor, Cruz, Thome etc... means that guy fills that spot at the highest level.  But absent that, I like the flexibility too.  I'm in the camp that hopes Buxton doesn't have too many DH games for the obvious reasons.  But I'm in favor of anything that gets him to 140+ games.  I wouldn't mind seeing Kirilloff get chances there, but I much prefer him at 1B as much as possible.  

[JBK]

Mentally, the DH is difficult if you don't do it consistently. Rocco hasn't gone with a set lineup since he became the manager. Too much tinkering is not a good thing IMO.

[saviking]

2 hours ago, miracleb said:

Lefty/righty match ups will be the name of the game.  This gives Rocco more flexibility in "resting" guys....which I like.  Of course, screw flexibility, if you can find Nelson Cruz again.....

Agree with the last point. I like playing about 8 different DH hitters as much as I liked seeing what seemed like 8 different lead off hitter. To me, this is where you go for raw power. Someone like Wallner who can play against righties and selected lefties. 

It's the only spot you can play a big hitter that is an average fielder. Wallner has a gun for an arm but I wouldn't call him a great outfielder compared to our others.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

1 hour ago, specialiststeve said:

I will preach in every format here that Polanco should be the everyday DH. Switch hitter with ongoing injury issues. Plug him in at the 3 spot and play. Imagine if he could play 155 games. We have a ton of options at 2B. This is just too logical... 

 

Last season I proposed that Arraez play DH the most. I guess the FO listened.

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

Given that the team does not have a clear power hitter/poor defensive player, the rotation strategy is the best approach.  I do like that it may keep players fresher and ensure that all the hitters get at-bats so that they are not rusty when they do get the call to DH or pinch hit.

[ashbury]

Will our DH be better than the opponent's DH, most games?  If not, then I don't like this rotational strategy.  If a key player needs a day of rest, rest him.

A hitter like Nelson Cruz wasn't simply a great DH, he was a cost-effective DH.  Because you aren't paying one penny for a glove.  When a position player fills the role, his salary doesn't drop for that game, but whatever you're paying for his glove is wasted anyway.  Of course it's not easy to find and sign a guy like Cruz, because other teams are in there bidding for his services as well.  Having him was good while it lasted.

To be clear, given the roster we have now, rotation may be the way to go.  I'm talking about roster construction, dating back a few months now.  But unless Nick Gordon (for instance) steps up his offense a bit further than he already has (and maybe he can), very many games with him as DH is going to look a lot like that time in the post-season where Jason Tyner DH'ed.  And in that case I'm back to criticizing the roster construction.  Literally any major league player is capable of filling the DH slot, but that's a low hurdle and I want a DH who excels, same as every spot in the lineup.

[South Dakota Tom]

I'll take a backward approach to this, as it seems that the bench will be Solano, Farmer, Taylor and Jeffers against RH pitchers, and Kiriloff, Gordon, Vazquez and Kepler/Gallo against LH pitchers.  Variety will ensue, but putting the strongest defensive lineup together would probably have Solano or Farmer as DH and the other as 1B against lefties, and Kepler/Gallo/Gordon (whichever isn't playing a corner that day) against righties.

Polanco can DH and be rested with Farmer or Solano taking his spot, primarily against lefties; Taylor can spell Byron on days he is DH (or an all LH outfield of Kepler, Gallo, Gordon).  Farmer plays 3B and Miranda DHs.  Vazquez will get a few DH spots. 

Ultimately, I see Gordon, Farmer, and Buxton as the most-common DHs the way this lines up, but it will be a potpourri.

[mnfireman]

Buxton has started 34 games at DH in his career, all of them last season, all of them after he injured himself on an awkward slide into 2B. Those starts at DH were part of the "plan" hatched after that injury to get his bat into the line-up semi-regularly. That plan did not work as Buxton missed time, was unavailable on his days off and eventually underwent season ending knee surgery, something that could have been done in April and had him back on the field in late July/early August.

If healthy, he should start in CF, not at DH. His value is much greater when his bat AND glove are in the line-up. 

[ashbury]

Across the majors last year, aggregate DH output was an OPS of only .710, compared to the overall .707 OPS.  (Best by position were 1B and 3B at .746 and .725 respectively, worst unsurprisingly was C at .663.)  Apparently the majority of teams must be rotating their DH too.  Seems like a dedicated DH is one of the few opportunities for a lower-budget team to find a competitive advantage, even at the cost of a shorter bench for the position players in this era of 13-man batting rosters.

[joefish]

I have been shot down here before for suggesting using Polanco as a dh because he makes too much money.

I still like the idea of have a switch hitter there. Polanco fits. Let him find his groove there. Simple.

[JD-TWINS]

Prior to Solano being added, my assumption was Larnach 50 starts at DH & Buxton 50 starts at DH. Now, due to options & strategy, Larnach will have to hit .400 in Spring Training with 5HR to make the Big Club out of the gate, unless there is an injury.

Assuming the original roster stays healthy, I see Taylor only in CF if there’s a LH pitcher (42 games). Otherwise, Buxton 80 games & Gordon 40 games.

I see Gallo - Gordon - Kepler v. RH pitching, being outfield combo for a third of the season.

DH turns:

Buxton - 50

Correa - 10

Gallo - 20

Kirilof - 15

Solano - 15

Jeffers - 5

Polanco - 20

Vazquez - 5

Miranda - 10

Gordon - 10..…one thing I think we can agree on is Gordon needs to be in our line-up with a slash v. RH pitching of 289/.329/.465 (.793) for 2nd half of 2022. Kepler & Gallo can’t default into the line-up ahead of that.

Partial “rest days” at DH or “keeping a guy sharp” strategy with so many differing guys.

If Larnach is healthy, and is playing well, it’s going to be tough to keep him out of this DH roll v. RH pitching! Someone else will get hurt or will falter on a relative basis & he’ll be there.

LH pitching line-up since Solano added to roster:

Taylor LF - Buxton CF - Correa SS - Miranda DH  - Polanco 2B - Jeffers C - Farmer 3B - Gallo RF - Solano 1B……….order can be played with after 1st 3 guys but this is a formidable line-up against 25% of the league as LH pitchers.

[ashbury]

At the request of absolutely nobody, I took a closer look at the question of how DHing affects a batter. 

I went in with the assumption that guys would hit better if they concentrated on only batting on a given day, despite having seen quotes from players that DHing is tough.  So I went to the 2022 stats and picked out guys who DHed a lot but also split their time playing positions too.  My not-very-random sample was Stanton, McCutchen, Blackmon, Alvarez, Ozuna, Buxton, and Mancini.

My expectation was not supported.  Only Blackmon had a better OPS as a DH than as a fielder.

It's a small sample.   Someone else can figure out a more careful study.  I don't know how to control for the effect of injury, where a given player is DH only when not 100% physically.

But based on this sampling, I guess the players could be right.  DH is a tough role.  Buxton certainly has said so; I should believe him.  It makes what Nelson Cruz accomplished that much more wonderful.  And it makes me leery of just picking a player like Polanco and saying, you're my switch-hitting DH now.  But I remain leery of spreading the duty around like the current plan seems to be; each such batter doing worse than usual isn't much of a help overall, and finding that special player who can excel at DH becomes more important than ever.

[Squirrel]

11 minutes ago, ashbury said:

At the request of absolutely nobody, I took a closer look at the question of how DHing affects a batter. 

I went in with the assumption that guys would hit better if they concentrated on only batting on a given day, despite having seen quotes from players that DHing is tough.  So I went to the 2022 stats and picked out guys who DHed a lot but also split their time playing positions too.  My not-very-random sample was Stanton, McCutchen, Blackmon, Alvarez, Ozuna, Buxton, and Mancini.

My expectation was not supported.  Only Blackmon had a better OPS as a DH than as a fielder.

It's a small sample.   Someone else can figure out a more careful study.  I don't know how to control for the effect of injury, where a given player is DH only when not 100% physically.

But based on this sampling, I guess the players could be right.  DH is a tough role.  Buxton certainly has said so; I should believe him.  It makes what Nelson Cruz accomplished that much more wonderful.  And it makes me leery of just picking a player like Polanco and saying, you're my switch-hitting DH now.  But I remain leery of spreading the duty around like the current plan seems to be; each such batter doing worse than usual isn't much of a help overall, and finding that special player who can excel at DH becomes more important than ever.

I think it’s a good plan given the roster so far as it looks this year. Maybe they are onto something when they don’t have that specific of a role player like Cruz. I think it’s a good way to utilize the bench so no one gets too cold. Not sure how far into the season we go to see if it’s working or not. Thanks for the SSS research. Interesting. 

[puckstopper1]

As long as it is not Cave or Garlick DHing, I'm fine with a rotation especially since there is not a prototypical DH on the roster.

[Major League Ready]

So, who does not DH?  Farmer should be in the field against LH pitching so he does not start any games as DH.  Taylor never.  We will always have better options than Jeffers and Kepler.  Same will probably be true of Solano.  Larnach is probably the hardest to predict of the group.  His appearances in general are hard to predict right now.   Among the rest, I think the number of days at DH go in this order.  Buxton / Miranda / Correa / Gordon and the rest of the group gets a day here and there.

[DocBauer]

A few things about the DH.

1] Having someone with a special bat like a Cruz as a DH is worth that limited/dedicated roster spot. Otherwise, I've always been in favor of matchups, half days of rest, etc. 

2] I've never felt your PRIMARY DH HAS to be a big, powerful, 30HR bat. For example, let's just say Julien is OK defensively at a couple of spots, but he is a legitimate .285/.350/.450/.800 OPS hitter with speed as well. No problem with someone like him, still young, on a good team with a good lineup, being the PRIMARY DH.

3] DH isn't for everyone. Not everyone performs well in the spot. But from what I've read about previous DH over the years, getting in a routine of just staying warm and engaged on the game and just getting USED to the role makes it easier over time.

Like everyone, I don't want to see Buxton as the most frequent DH as I want him as healthy as possible to be in the field. POWER WISE, there's about 6-7 guys who can produce 20+ HR on the team with health and opportunity. We all know the names. Good chance the catching platoon could produce 20+ HR total. 

Even with hoped for great health for the position players, you're still going to role through a good 15-16 players used. So even if someone like Larnach or AK begin the year at AAA to ramp up, prove themselves 100%, etc, there's going to be plenty of opportunity to contribute in the field and at DH.

I love the lineup with Correa and Polanco in the 2 and 3 spots, as long as Polanco is good to go, even with a gradual ramp up to get him ready. I also love a mix with those 2 and  Buxton rounding out the top 4. But who bats leadoff? While he will also see time in the field and allow someone else a day off, or half day in the DH spot, I can see Gordon at DH quite a bit and hitting at #1 against RHP based not only on what he did in 2022, but how much he improved the 2nd half. He could provide an exciting hit/pop/speed combination to start things off. Possibly Farmer or Solano against LHP, with no real speed, but with the ability to just have a good overall OPS against said arms and help set the table. Remember when Garver was used as a #1 hitter against LHP to provide power/OPS? Maybe Jeffers doing the same at catcher or DH?

I think there's a lot of ways to have a fairly established lineup, still play everyone, and use the DH in a really smart way. 

[jkcarew]

Buxton’s bat Is not that spectacular against right-handed pitching that you want him DH’ing a ton in that situation (assuming he can run). Incredibly diminished value if you do. Similar to Mauer playing 1B and OPS’ing 750…at last the club waited to his age 31 season for that (and no, it didn’t keep Mauer from getting injuries). No thanks to compromising Buxton at age 29.

On the other hand, against lefties, it would be the perfect opportunity for some rest, if he wants it. But that doesn’t add up to a ton of games at DH.

One underrated factor…with the NL finally going to the DH, there are fewer ‘classic’ (Cruz, Thome, Big Hurt…very good to great aging and/or immobile bats) to go around. Those guys were always somewhat rare obviously, but they were all in the AL. Now MORE teams will have no option but to mix and match.

[Rosterman]

Whoever Farmer, Gordon, Taylor, Solano replace in the field, that guy should DH. And we should never have more than two of the above in the lineup to start a game, preferably only one...with late inning on-field replacements possible.

That said, if Taylor is indeed a runner, could he become the Twins need for a leadoff hitter.

Be interesting to see the condition of Kirilloff, Polanco, Buxton breaking camp. Buxton may not like playing DH, but then - what?!? DO you play him at a corner outfield? Sit out on the bench? Would be nice to get at least 100 games out of Byron.

Who do we see working themselves into the Twins? Not many alternatives on the 40-man. If we lose a catcher, someone will have to be added. Otherwise it is Lewis and Julien for the infield, and Larnach and Wallner and Celestino for the outfield.

Barring putting guys like Centarino (or Balazovic) on the longterm IL-list (as well as Lewis, where he would get even more major league service time) - there isn't alot of room at the inn, so to speak. Sands, Megil, Pagan?