Tomorrow Is Not Promised: A Recent History of Twins No. 1 Prospects

[Nick Nelson]

With a new season soon to get underway, the Minnesota Twins arguably have a new top prospect in the system for the fourth time in as many springs. 

Looking back through top emerging talents of years past – even while limiting our sample to the past decade – serves as a powerful reminder of the folly in casting confident outlooks for even the most 'sure thing' prospects.

Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson, Jonathan Dyer, Jesse Johnson, USA Today Sports

MLB prospect rankings were tough to find back in the early 1980s. Coverage of the minor leagues was not exactly prominent before the internet's takeover. However, Baseball America does have archives of its rankings dating back to that time, which is pretty fun.

You may be unsurprised to learn that in 1984, ahead of his major-league arrival, Kirby Puckett ranked No. 1 on Baseball America's prospect list for the Twins. It was well earned. Drafted third overall in '82, he was an immediate sensation, batting .382 in his pro debut and reaching the majors for good within two years. 

Little did anyone know back then, but Puckett would go on to epitomize the thrilling highs and tragic lows that can come with a life in pro baseball – the variance involved in even a legendary Hall of Fame career. He was a shining star of the game for 10 years, and a World Series hero, before it all came crashing down in sudden and devastating fashion.

"Don't take it for granted,'' Puckett reportedly told his teammates in 1996, after informing them of his retirement due to an irreversible eye condition. "Tomorrow is not promised to any of us, so enjoy yourself.''

His post-playing life became an even sadder story, but I'm not looking to dwell on that. Instead, I want to reflect on his parting sentiments toward the game, his fellow players, and his fans. 

Puckett was fortunate (as were we) that he was able to achieve the iconic heights he did. The same can be said for subsequent top prospects and MVPs like Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. These players had the chance to establish their enduring legacies, even if all three primes were cut short by freak injuries beyond their control.

In recent years, we've seen that even a truncated run of notoriety like theirs is by no means assured for the brightest and most touted talents to come through the franchise.

A lookback through the successive No. 1-ranked prospects in the organization over the past 10 years, according Twins Daily's lists, reminds us that even for the most promising, nothing is ever promised. Hopefully it also provides a bit of valuable perspective, with a nod to Kirby's advice about enjoying today and not worrying about tomorrow.

Twins Daily #1 Prospects Over the Years

Byron Buxton: 2013-16

Thirty years after Puck, Buck came along and followed right in his footsteps: high school star center fielder turned top-three draft pick turned immediate pro success. Buxton quickly emerged as the consensus No. 1 prospect in all of baseball and reached the majors by age 21.

 

 

As we know, it's been anything but a storybook journey for him since then. The tools and talents that earned Buxton such prospect praise have been fully on display in between endless and excruciating bouts with injury. He enters this year surrounded by an especially high degree of uncertainty as he looks to move past a recurring knee issue some fear to be chronic. 

While much of his tale thankfully remains to be written, Buxton's turbulent journey to this point perfectly summarizes the theme of this list: everything he can control has gone right, and everything he can't, has not.

Fernando Romero: 2017

Once Buxton had officially graduated to major-league status, a void opened in his entrenched perch atop Twins top prospect rankings. Different outlets went different directions, breaking with the firm consensus that ruled Buxton's reign, but TD's panelists chose Fernando Romero. The big right-hander had seemingly overcome his own gauntlet of injuries to re-emerge as a fireballing ace prototype with velocity, spin, command, and mound presence.

Of course, this optimistic forecast never came close to materializing, and in his case, we can't chalk it up as much more than an age-old example of the encouraging young arm plateauing and fizzling out at the highest level. Romero struggled over 26 appearances with the Twins between 2018-19, and hasn't been back to the majors since. He spent the past two seasons playing in Japan, with mediocre numbers.

Royce Lewis: 2018-20

When you get selected at the very top of the draft and immediately start performing in the minors, it's a natural path to the No. 1 prospect spot, which is why Buxton held it down for four straight years, and why Lewis opened up his own three-year reign shortly thereafter. 

Then, Lewis began his own battle with uncontrollable adversity. The shortstop was creeping toward MLB-readiness in 2020 when the COVID pandemic wiped out an entire minor-league season. During the following winter, he tore his ACL slipping on ice, requiring surgery that erased his 2021 season. Shortly after returning to the field following a lengthy rehab, he re-tore the same ACL in an outfield wall collision. He's again on the rehab track and aiming to return midseason, at which point he'll have played 46 official games in the past three-and-a-half years.

Alex Kirilloff: 2021

No minor-league baseball was played during the 2020 season, so there wasn't much movement among returning players on our list the following year. We did, however, elevate Kirilloff to No. 1 on the basis of a loud showing at the team's St. Paul training site that culminated with an MLB debut in the playoffs.

 

 

He'd already gone through his own cruel rite of passage as a Twins top prospect, losing a season of development in the minors to Tommy John surgery, but Kirilllof had seemingly come out on the other side. He got the official call-up in 2021 and looked like he was in the majors to stay before a wrist injury surfaced and sent his ascendant career spinning off the rails. Almost two years later, he's still trying to get it back on track, following a second surgery on the same wrist. 

Early signs are good, but Derek Falvey painted a stark picture of finality regarding the success (or non-success) of this last-ditch effort a salvage a career threatening to grind to a halt almost before it starts.

"He’s never coming in at the end of the day, walking into that room and going, ‘Hey, I’ve got some soreness,’ " Falvey told reporters. “At this point, that’s all we can do because as you all know, this is the procedure. There’s not another one. This needs to work."

Austin Martin: 2022

The headliner of 2021's José Berríos trade, Martin went straight to Double-A after being drafted and led the league in on-base percentage while showing stellar speed, contact skills, and strike zone control. With Kirilloff graduating and Lewis coming off two straight missed seasons, Martin overtook the top spot on our list.

He followed up with an underwhelming encore at the same level, tarnishing his prospect luster, but the 23-year-old should not be discounted as a factor going forward. The same standout traits mentioned above were still intact even as his modest power evaporated, and talent is talent. 

Like Romero, Martin's drop-off is seemingly a more standard story of stalling player development than catastrophic bad fortune, but unlike Romero, he still has plenty of time to reverse course and show this was nothing more than a bump in the road. 

At the very least, Martin seems destined to pan out as a useful big-leaguer player, if not a star, and that's a (generally common) middle-of-the-road outcome that's been rare in these ranks.

Brooks Lee: 2023

Alas, we arrive at The New Guy. Lee joined the organization as the No. 8 overall pick last summer, and he followed the tried-and-true path of Buxton, Lewis, and Martin before him: from top draft pick to immediate producer to No. 1 Twins prospect. As we've seen, the paths can diverge greatly from this initial juncture.

By no means am I drawing out this pattern to place a hex on Lee (though one could argue, based on ample evidence, that he was cosmically hexed from the moment he was drafted by the Twins in the first round). I do think it sheds important context on the punishing nature of this profession, the lack of assurances for any player, and the importance of enjoying things in the moment. 

Things like Lee experiencing first major-league camp, or Lewis sprinting and smiling on the sidelines as he cheerily battles to overcome another setback. Each time Kirilloff swings and cracks a line drive with no ensuing wince, or Buxton springs up after a spectacular diving catch, it's something to appreciate because we've all seen how quickly and randomly it can all go away.

People who obsess over following prospects, like myself, are apt to get overly caught up in projecting the future, and fixating on ceilings, and taking for granted that greatness will find a way. Sometimes, it doesn't. And even when it does, the moment can be fleeting. In fact, most often it is. 

No one knows what tomorrow will hold. And in large part, that's out of our hands. I think this is an important mindset for Twins fans to carry into a season that will inevitably be fraught with looming health concerns and triggering setbacks. My recommendation (and one I'll aspire to live by): Don't give into doomsday-ism, just enjoy the moment.

Past does not dictate present or future. The Twins as a team will be setting out prove that following back-to-back disappointing seasons, and many of their former chart-topping prospects will be looking to support that cause by doing the same.

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[Shaitan]

I'm surprised there are so few names over 10 years, honestly.

I think that highlights a lot of recent discussion here: just how long a player is considered a prospect.

[se7799]

Well written and stared Nick.  

 

[old nurse]

Not yet for Martin nor Lee but two very similar words com to mind. Busted or Bust

[roger]

So much injury related hard luck with this crew.  Is it possible the health Gods will be favorable to the Twins?  Can you dream of Buxton, AK, Lewis and Lee all playing at the top of their game come season’s end and the playoffs?

[Doctor Gast]

Martin wasn't our pick in '22, who was ours?

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

Martin wasn't our pick in '22, who was ours?

2012	Byron Buxton	Outfielder	Appling County High School (Baxley, Georgia)	2	[65]
2012	José Berríos	Right-handed pitcher	Papa Juan High School (Bayamón, Puerto Rico)	32§[s]	[65]
2012	Luke Bard	Right-handed pitcher	Georgia Institute of Technology (Atlanta, Georgia)	42§[t]	[65]
2013	Kohl Stewart	Right-handed pitcher	St. Pius X High School (Houston, Texas)	4	[66]
2014	Nick Gordon	Shortstop	Olympia High School (Orlando, Florida)	5	[67]
2015	Tyler Jay	Left-handed pitcher	University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign (Champaign, Illinois)	6	[68]
2016	Alex Kirilloff	Outfielder	Plum High School (Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania)	15	[69]
2017	Royce Lewis	Shortstop	JSerra Catholic High School (San Juan Capistrano, California)	1	[70]
2017	Brent Rooker	Outfielder	Mississippi State University (Mississippi State, Mississippi)	35
2018	Trevor Larnach	Outfielder	Oregon State University (Corvallis, Oregon)	20	[71]
2019	Keoni Cavaco	Shortstop	Eastlake High School (Chula Vista, California)	13	[72]
2020	Aaron Sabato	First baseman	University of North Carolina (Chapel Hill, North Carolina)	27	[73]
2021	Chase Petty	Right-handed pitcher	Mainland Regional High School (Linwood, New Jersey)	26	[74]
2021	Noah Miller	Shortstop	Ozaukee High School (Fredonia, Wisconsin)	36§[s]	[74]
2022	Brooks Lee	Shortstop	Cal Poly (San Luis Obispo, California)	8

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

Martin wasn't our pick in '22, who was ours?

Martin was drafted by the Blue Jays in 2020 (1st Round - 5th Overall). 

Our pick in 2022 was Brooks Lee. 

[Doctor Gast]

5 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Martin was drafted by the Blue Jays in 2020 (1st Round - 5th Overall). 

Our pick in 2022 was Brooks Lee. 

Thank you. I was confused with the correlation between the player & year

[weitz41]

It seems we are overdue for a homegrown star player. It's time for this pesky poor health bug to buzz off...

AK, Royce, Martin and Lee nearing their potential, would make for a really fun team to root for for a long time.

[Brett]

Thanks Nick. This story made me feel like a Vikings fan, which I am also. Ugh.

Maybe I’ll just go back to bed.

[dxpavelka]

A lot boils down the health.  Health could be the difference between what we currently see / have in Buxton and him being seen as a generational talent.  Kirilloff?  Need I say more?  Lewis--nuff said.

[jmlease1]

That draft list is reminder why the previous regime is no longer here: Stewart & Jay being top 10 picks who busted sandwiching Nick Gordon who needed 8 years to become a viable pro is pretty rough. The current regimes back-to-back of Cavaco & Sabato is pretty bad, but both were drafted outside the top 10. Missing on high draft picks hurts, even with baseball being the hardest sport to predict draft success.

Twins have definitely had injuries derail some of their best prospects. I will admit to thinking that Fernando Romero was going to be something; probably should have looked closer at his performance over his tools back then. He was never that good after A-ball and flamed out pretty quickly once he had to face the higher quality hitters.

I'm still really high on Kirilloff. He's so talented with the bat and if this latest surgery has actually fixed the problem then he could fly. 

[MABB1959]

I guess all I see is the inability of the training staff to bring this talent to the MLB level.  The most recent best players that have played any significant time is Buxton and Berrios.  I wonder if a different team could manage Buxton's injuries better.  Berrios is what we needed and obviously did not want to be here.  Will the 2 players we got for him ever emerge?

[theBOMisthebomb]

Honestly, I barely remember Fernando Romero.

[JD-TWINS]

If I understand the draft information correctly we have a #1 overall pick - a #5 overall pick - a #8 overall pick in Lewis - Lee - Martin. I’m not into the draft historically so haven’t really put this together as I just thought they were where the Twins happened to pick not the Over All draft positions.

2 of these 3 have to work out with that sort of pedigree! Maybe obvious to all others - just catching up. After this year when Lewis gets a 2-3 month stretch in the league, we should have a clearly re-vamped infield for ‘24………with Martin potentially spending time in OF in future.

To me, Martin is the only ?? and apparently he had a great fall ball season. Exciting to see how they do over the next few weeks - hopeful, as everyone else, Lewis comes back w/o issues.

[TwinsDr2021]

2 hours ago, theBOMisthebomb said:

Honestly, I barely remember Fernando Romero.

You must not been around here, because him, Gonsalves, Jay, Mejia, Stewart and Jorge were going to solve all the Twins starting pitching problems. Along with Chargois, Burdi, Hildenberger, Wells , Baxendale and Thorpe. The Twins future was VERY, VERY Bright. Nobody even knew how the Twins would get playing time for two future all stars at SS Gordon and Wander,  The twins had so much power in the minors it was silly, Diaz, Palka, Walker,  and speed with Wade, Granite, Baddo, plus Garver and Rortvedt as future catchers.

[LA VIkes Fan]

Well said. Prospects always look great until they don't. It's generally fool's gold to plan for a contending team based on guys who haven't established themselves at the MLB level. 

The most interesting statement was the Falvey quote on Kirilloff. He's right. This is it; if the last surgery doesn't work Kirilloff is probably done as a pro baseball player. As a fan and just a human being, I really hope that he can achieve his dream and not get sidelined by a physical problem. I think we'll know by mid-season.  

[PatPfund]

Baseball is hard. A couple overall #1s never made it to MLB. Prospects stall, and get hurt. We've definitely had our share, but in case this fuels some to think we should trade all prospects for 'sure thing' veterans, remember Kirby. Or Montas. Or Mahle (though I have hopes for this year).

Given our budget realities (this just in: big market teams rake huge media coin, while the Twins TV broadcaster is due to declare bankruptcy), we need the core of our team to be younger, salary controllable players, and the best way to get those is to draft them (or be awful, and stock up at the trading deadline).

So I'm focusing on the end-article optimism.

[strumdatjag]

3 hours ago, theBOMisthebomb said:

Honestly, I barely remember Fernando Romero.

I plan to see a Yokohama Sena Baystars game in May (against the Hiroshima Toyo Carp).  I wonder if Fernando Romero will be on the roster for a 3rd year.    If he is I will give a Romero update. 

[Heiny]

16 hours ago, roger said:

So much injury related hard luck with this crew.  Is it possible the health Gods will be favorable to the Twins?  Can you dream of Buxton, AK, Lewis and Lee all playing at the top of their game come season’s end and the playoffs?

I would add Larnach, Martin and Gordon to that dream.  See you at the ballpark.

[ashbury]

7 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

You must not been around here, because him, Gonsalves, Jay, Mejia, Stewart and Jorge were going to solve all the Twins starting pitching problems. Along with Chargois, Burdi, Hildenberger, Wells , Baxendale and Thorpe. The Twins future was VERY, VERY Bright.

Anthony Slama turned 39 last month.

[se7799]

3 hours ago, ashbury said:

Anthony Slama turned 39 last month.

Man I feel old

[USAFChief]

9 hours ago, strumdatjag said:

I plan to see a Yokohama Sena Baystars game in May (against the Hiroshima Toyo Carp).  I wonder if Fernando Romero will be on the roster for a 3rd year.    If he is I will give a Romero update. 

Hai, dozo.

[Mike Sixel]

Lots of bad luck with injury with this latest batch. Even Martin had a wrist issue last year. 

 

[LewFordLives]

I would love to see Martin take the next step forward. The Twins don't really have a true leadoff hitter at the moment, He always has a high OBP and can steal some bases.

[Craig Arko]

Not to be morbid, but tomorrow isn’t exactly promised to anybody.

[mac098]

On 2/22/2023 at 10:22 PM, old nurse said:

Not yet for Martin nor Lee but two very similar words com to mind. Busted or Bust

How can you see Lee is Busted or Bust? The kid has only spent half a season in our organization since being drafted...in 2022. He literally moved from Rookie ball to High A to AA in that short time. Baseball is not like football or basketball, where rookies/1st year players are expected to make an impact almost immediately. Very rarely do 18 yr olds or college drafted kids make it to The Show the same year they get drafted, let alone the year after they get drafted. Yes, are there outliers? Of course there are. But I wouldn't call Lee a Bust. 

Now Martin is starting to get to that point of Bust. He took a step backward last year, but maybe it was a step backward to take a huge leap forward. Kinda like a running start if you will. I hope that he can take off on our team, whether its somewhere in the IF or the OF. Heck maybe he's gotta be out UTIL guy until a spot opens up. Personally, I think he might be a better choice for OF than Celestino. After this season, quite a bit of contracts are up and we may be a few players short so that will open up some opening for the these young players to step up.

[old nurse]

3 hours ago, mac098 said:

How can you see Lee is Busted or Bust? The kid has only spent half a season in our organization since being drafted...in 2022. He literally moved from Rookie ball to High A to AA in that short time. Baseball is not like football or basketball, where rookies/1st year players are expected to make an impact almost immediately. Very rarely do 18 yr olds or college drafted kids make it to The Show the same year they get drafted, let alone the year after they get drafted. Yes, are there outliers? Of course there are. But I wouldn't call Lee a Bust. 

Now Martin is starting to get to that point of Bust. He took a step backward last year, but maybe it was a step backward to take a huge leap forward. Kinda like a running start if you will. I hope that he can take off on our team, whether it’s somewhere in the IF or the OF. Heck maybe he's gotta be out UTIL guy until a spot opens up. Personally, I think he might be a better choice for OF than Celestino. After this season, quite a bit of contracts are up and we may be a few players short so that will open up some opening for the these young players to step up.

Not for Martin and Lee was the first part of the statement. Sorry i did not make that clearer. I suppose capitals might have worked.  Maybe listing the rest of the players would have been better 

[old nurse]

On 2/23/2023 at 12:11 PM, strumdatjag said:

I plan to see a Yokohama Sena Baystars game in May (against the Hiroshima Toyo Carp).  I wonder if Fernando Romero will be on the roster for a 3rd year.    If he is I will give a Romero update. 

Romero signed a minor league contract with the Angels