What Does Donovan Solano Mean for the Twins

[Mike Sixel]

I'm a bit disappointed that this means Larnach is in AAA (or Kiriloff is hurt or in AAA) to start the year. I understand last year was killed by AAAA players ALL PLAYING AT THE SAME TIME, but I feel this is an over reaction, like using all caps to make a point........

I don't HATE it, but I don't LOVE it either. I think if they didn't have Farmer already, I'd like it quite a bit.

[saviking]

I don't get this move .. Guess I'm just not that smart

[jmlease1]

The more I think about this, the more I'm thinking that the team is worried a couple of guys aren't going to be ready for Opening Day (Kirilloff, Polanco are the two that seem to be the most likely?) and they don't have a lot of confidence in Nick Gordon filling in at an infield spot.

I still feel like I'd rather have Larnach on the roster (I'm still pretty high on him), but he does have an option left. Not that he really has much to prove at AAA really, and I think his upside on offense more than offsets any superiority Kepler has on defense, but maybe they're also entertaining Kepler deals as camp continues and an injury reveals itself on another team.

Solano seems like an ok platoon guy, and after last year's nightmare I love having depth, but I still think we'd probably be better off with Gordon & Larnach getting Kepler's ABs, and by adding Votto & Solano to this roster there's not a lot of room for Larnach.

[nicksaviking]

7 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm a bit disappointed that this means Larnach is in AAA (or Kiriloff is hurt or in AAA) to start the year. I understand last year was killed by AAAA players ALL PLAYING AT THE SAME TIME, but I feel this is an over reaction, like using all caps to make a point........

I don't HATE it, but I don't LOVE it either. I think if they didn't have Farmer already, I'd like it quite a bit.

Yeah, this organization isn't going to win a championship with these recycled vets making up most of the roster. Let's get the young guys up and playing and seeing what they got. There's enough of them that they can cycle through them until they find the right ones.

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, nicksaviking said:

Yeah, this organization isn't going to win a championship with these recycled vets making up most of the roster. Let's get the young guys up and playing and seeing what they got. There's enough of them that they can cycle through them until they find the right ones.

That's my issue. They are really securing the FLOOR, but I fell like my 5 foot 9 head would hit the ceiling of the backups (though I really like Farmer, and they got him before CC).

[IndianaTwin]

4 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

...Solano seems like an ok platoon guy, and after last year's nightmare I love having depth, but I still think we'd probably be better off with Gordon & Larnach getting Kepler's ABs, and by adding Votto & Solano to this roster there's not a lot of room for Larnach.

Wait? We added Votto too? 

You mean Gallo, I presume? 😀

[jmlease1]

32 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

Wait? We added Votto too? 

You mean Gallo, I presume? 😀

sigh...yeah.

[LA VIkes Fan]

1 hour ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

This move probably means a few things:

1) There is some question on Polanco's knee and possibly Kiriloff's wrist as well

2) None of the young infielders are not ready to make the club (Lee, Martin, etc.) or are going to be moved to 2B

3) There is another trade in the works involving any of the aforementioned players, but strongly pointing at Polanco.

4) Gordon's life as an infielder in MN is over

Solano is a perfectly fine backup infielder.  Can play all 4 positions, has a respectable bat.  He could also easily serve as a 2B placeholder until one of the prospects is ready.

I can't speak for everyone, but with so many moves this offseason, it sure has been fun to try to figure things out.

Absolutely right, except I think the trade involves Kepler, not Polanco. I think it would be hard to get value for Polanco until he shows that the knee is not an issue.  

I actually think this acquisition makes a lot of sense. Solano's best positions are 2B and 1B, which happen to be the positions where we have an established player with injury concerns (Polanco) and an unestablished player with injury concerns (Kirilloff). If either can't start the season, Solano takes their spot. If the FO decides it would be better for Kirilloff to start in AAA to get his stroke back, Solano takes his spot. If an IF gets hurt in ST, Solano takes their spot. Good guy to have.  

Two things about the young players. There is no young MiLB 2B in the system ready to step in as a starter. Lee, Julien and Martin haven't even played a lot at AAA yet for goodness sakes. There was a time when the Twins would throw a guy like those 3 out there and hope. Those were also the times when we had no real shot at contending and/or no other options. We aren't that team any more. We intend to contend for at least a division title/playoff spot in each of the next 6 years that Correa and Buxton are together. Teams that want to do that don't throw AA players out here and hope; they get vets like Solano to fill in as injury insurance. Solano is 35. He's here for a year at most and he isn't blocking anybody.  In the unlikely event that we have no injuries and Polanco and Kirilloff are healthy and productive, the only player effected is Lewis and that isn't until probably mid-July or August. Chances are that injuries and ineffectiveness will open up a spot for him and probably at least 1 of the other 3 this year. I think this move is smart and it tells me and the current roster that the Twins think they have a contending team. You're going to have to earn your spot with production on the field. 

Second, the player impacted is Larnach. Unless there is a trade, Buxton, Gallo, Kepler, Taylor and Gordon are the 5 OFs on the 26 man roster.  Why? Because they've earned it with their performance on the field. Creating a spot for Larnach requires a trade or Kirilloff not being ready and Kepler or Gallo moving to 1B. There isn't any need to artificially create a spot for him. He hasn't earned it yet, admittedly due to injury, so he goes to AAA if nothing changes. Again, he'll get his shot. Somebody will get hurt or not hit and he's first one up. 

This is a smart move for a team that wants to/thinks they can contend. If we learn by mid-season that we can't, then we can trade guys like Solano. Farmer and Taylor (or maybe even Polanco and Kepler) to teams that can compete and let guys like Larnach, Lewis, Lee, Martin, Julien, etc. get some MLB experience.  No need to artificially create that opportunity now. 

[Elliot]

Competition is never a bad thing. If the season starts with  Ober in the St Paul rotation that means that either Ober did not perform, or the veteran starters were healthy and outperformed him.  Same story with Larnach, Kiriloff, Julien, Martin, Lee, ... It really comes down to production over potential.  Nothing wrong with that, especially if the young guys have options remaining and it doesn't force someone valuable off the 40 man roster.  

I think that fans all dream about the young player that bursts on the scene in ST and forces the hand of management. That's fun, but it doesn't really happen that often, and it is fool's gold to plan on it. There is probably more potential of that happening in the SP rotation than with everyday players. Ober, Varland, and SWR have all worked their way up thru AAA and made an appearance at the MLB level. There are actually no young position players other than Matt Wallner, and Celestino who can make that statement and are not huge question marks health wise. I hope that Kiriloff and Larnach are starters at the LB level when camp breaks. That would mean that they are healthy and have outperformed their competition. However; if either of them stumbles due to health or performance we seem to have some pretty good options this year.

The June/July timeframe is huge this year.  By that time Lewis should be ready to be back in consideration, and Julien, Martin, Lee, Celestino, and Wallner will have had the opportunity to show what they can (or cannot) do at the AAA level. There is then the trade deadline options of moving veterans or youngsters if need be.  The most foolish move is to jump the gun on someone like Lee or Martin not currently on the 40 man roster.

[LA VIkes Fan]

10 minutes ago, Elliot said:

Competition is never a bad thing. If the season starts with  Ober in the St Paul rotation that means that either Ober did not perform, or the veteran starters were healthy and outperformed him.  Same story with Larnach, Kiriloff, Julien, Martin, Lee, ... It really comes down to production over potential.  Nothing wrong with that, especially if the young guys have options remaining and it doesn't force someone valuable off the 40 man roster.  

I think that fans all dream about the young player that bursts on the scene in ST and forces the hand of management. That's fun, but it doesn't really happen that often, and it is fool's gold to plan on it. There is probably more potential of that happening in the SP rotation than with everyday players. Ober, Varland, and SWR have all worked their way up thru AAA and made an appearance at the MLB level. There are actually no young position players other than Matt Wallner, and Celestino who can make that statement and are not huge question marks health wise. I hope that Kiriloff and Larnach are starters at the LB level when camp breaks. That would mean that they are healthy and have outperformed their competition. However; if either of them stumbles due to health or performance we seem to have some pretty good options this year.

The June/July timeframe is huge this year.  By that time Lewis should be ready to be back in consideration, and Julien, Martin, Lee, Celestino, and Wallner will have had the opportunity to show what they can (or cannot) do at the AAA level. There is then the trade deadline options of moving veterans or youngsters if need be.  The most foolish move is to jump the gun on someone like Lee or Martin not currently on the 40 man roster.

Right on, as they used to say. I know it's exciting to think about the young guys coming up. Th decision time on those gusy isn't now; it's in July. 

[Otaknam]

It is a head scratcher unless another move is imminent, like a trade or injury announcement. And the addition of Gallo will take even more at bats away from Gordon, who clearly deserves the chance to build on his success from last year. 

[Mike Sixel]

4 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Right on, as they used to say. I know it's exciting to think about the young guys coming up. Th decision time on those gusy isn't now; it's in July. 

If even one of them is ready, the Twins are in first, and all these INF are healthy, they'll just sit in AAA even if they have more upside than the backups already in MN.....which might be good for this year and the regular season, but isn't going to help next year or the playoffs. I get it, I don't love it. They are pretty much blocking every inexperienced player at this point. Which clearly indicates they think much higher of their chances this year than everyone else does.

[Dman]

FWIW I grabbed this out of the MLB Trade Rumors chat and the Arraez comparison is compelling.  Arraez is better especially from a war perspective but Solano looks like a decent replacement for the lost Arraez production.  Have to take those number with a grain of salt though as Arraez is ascending and Solano's Production declined last year.  He is 35 after all.  Still I think it helps us see where the FO was coming from grabbing him especially when he works so well in a platoon.

 

Habeto

5 hours ago

Well, let’s see. They both play primarily 2B, but they also can play 1B and 3B on a pinch. Pretty similar. Slightly below average runners. But let’s skip to the good part:
Looking at career numbers after 2019 (ever since Arraez started and Solano suddenly regained his stroke), some interesting numbers:
1. Slash line:
S: .301/.350/.421-18HR in 1079 PAs
A: .314/.374./410-14HR in 1569 PAs
2. BABIP: S:.362 and A: .336.
3. WAR: S: 4.9 and A: 10.4
4. OPS+: S: 109 and A: 120
5. Solano has better platoon splits, while Arraez fares well against any hand.

Although you can argue Arraez has yet to reach his peak and Solano is on his way out of the Majors, their last 4 seasons compared haven’t been that different.

 

[Riverbrian]

Performance like Cave, Celestino, Kepler, Garlick and Sanchez provided us in September during a pennant chase can't happen again. 

Having Hamilton, Hamilton and Palacios on the 26 man roster who the manager won't play even while Cave, Celestino, Kepler, Garlick and Sanchez are providing next to nothing with the bat during a pennant chase is something that can't happen again. 

The Off-Season is when you build the roster depth. September is when you find out if you did enough. We didn't do enough last year. 

I understand that our injuries were off the chart last year but there we were with Cave, Celestino, Kepler, Garlick, Sanchez, Hamilton, Hamilton and Palacios occupying 8 spots on the Major League Roster during a pennant chase and it cost us. 

This is how you do off-season prep to avoid that scenario that can't happen again. You sign players who can play and not just 9 of them. If everyone is healthy (They Won't Be), the manager figures it out.

Having too many players is a good thing, Having players with talent in AAA is a good thing. The manager will figure out the playing time. Depth and Flexibility is a good thing. I'll never understand why some want to run skinny. Competition for playing time is a good thing. 

Welcome to Minnesota Donovan Solano!!! Let's move some runners around the bases. 

 

[raindog]

Something interesting I discovered on Fielding Bible and Statcast...despite playing 1B last year for the first time in his career, he was phenomenal at it. 

In only 215 innings, he had 5 runs saved according to DRS which ranked 5th among first basemen. Statcast had him at 4 Outs Above Average and 3 runs prevented. Both tied for 2nd among all first basemen. 

Analytical teams like the Astros have put a surprising emphasis on 1B defense in recent years. Looks like the Twins are taking it seriously, as well.

EDIT: Oh and his UZR/150 was 13.9.  Easily the highest at 1B.

Another thought...with the shift limitations, a 1B that has more range might be a big bonus as well. 

 

[Mike Sixel]

22 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Performance like Cave, Celestino, Kepler, Garlick and Sanchez provided us in September during a pennant chase can't happen again. 

Having Hamilton, Hamilton and Palacios on the 26 man roster who the manager won't play even while Cave, Celestino, Kepler, Garlick and Sanchez are providing next to nothing with the bat during a pennant chase is something that can't happen again. 

The Off-Season is when you build the roster depth. September is when you find out if you did enough. We didn't do enough last year. 

I understand that our injuries were off the chart last year but there we were with Cave, Celestino, Kepler, Garlick, Sanchez, Hamilton, Hamilton and Palacios occupying 8 spots on the Major League Roster during a pennant chase and it cost us. 

This is how you do off-season prep to avoid that scenario that can't happen again. You sign players who can play and not just 9 of them. If everyone is healthy (They Won't Be), the manager figures it out.

Having too many players is a good thing, Having players with talent in AAA is a good thing. The manager will figure out the playing time. Depth and Flexibility is a good thing. I'll never understand why some want to run skinny. Competition for playing time is a good thing. 

Welcome to Minnesota Donovan Solano!!! Let's move some runners around the bases. 

 

There is SKINNY, and there is take a chance on a guy skinny.......Who is your DH, now that Larnach is in AAA? Farmer? Gordon? 

That's the downside, IMO. 

And yes, that's assuming good health to start the year.

[nicksaviking]

4 hours ago, Elliot said:

Competition is never a bad thing. If the season starts with  Ober in the St Paul rotation that means that either Ober did not perform, or the veteran starters were healthy and outperformed him.  Same story with Larnach, Kiriloff, Julien, Martin, Lee, ... It really comes down to production over potential.  Nothing wrong with that, especially if the young guys have options remaining and it doesn't force someone valuable off the 40 man roster.  

 

What you described is not competition though, it's still deferring to the vets. Vets that are likely no longer as talented, and certainly don't have the ceiling of the young guys. You might be putting together the best 40-man roster, but not the best 26-man roster. Certainly there are arguments for both perspectives, but since there's more than enough young guys at AA or above who are ready to contribute, I think you put the best 26-man roster together instead.

[tony&rodney]

12 pitchers and 14 position players. Problem is solved.

[Doctor Gast]

FO aren't saying anything and you can't always trust what they say. So you have to decipher what's going on by what they do. So this signing is a bit of a shocker because you take this as little confidence in the existing INF. So where is the problem they aren't talking about. Most obvious is Kiriloff, they want to take him slow & let him rehab in AAA for awhile. OK but 1B is easy to fill w/o causing any depth problems & it's only temporary. Maybe  they think Miranda can't stick at 3B & Farmer will be the steady 3B, therefore needing a INF utility. Maybe they want to be cautious with Polanco or even (heaven forbid Correa has an issue & can't trusted to play as many games. To me there's a combination of these options.

In any scenario IMO Solano is gone by the end of July.

[Cris E]

Belt and suspenders. This move means little in and of itself, just that the front office doesn't want its underwear hanging out in public like past year.  When you have a bunch of AA guys that need to prove themselves you don't just hand them jobs. You block them with orange cones and make them take the jobs, and if they can't beat out Donovan Solano or Kyle Farmer then they belong in AA or AAA.

[DJL44]

7 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

What we do (mostly) know is that with Lewis likely available to go on the 60-day IL, it probably doesn't cost us a body to add Solano. But guess what? We'll probably hear that news in a day or two.

I've seen people say we don't want to put Canterino or Balazovic on the 60 day IL because we shouldn't pay a minor leaguer a major league salary to sit on the injured list. Isn't that exactly what they would be doing with Royce Lewis? Wouldn't it be even worse because they would be burning service time on their best prospect when they could option Lewis and burn service time on the older prospect Canterino (or the least valuable prospect Balazovic) instead? Isn't the service time more important than the $500,000 difference in pay?

[mikelink45]

9 hours ago, arby58 said:

Gallo is primarily in outfielder (and a good one defensively). Solano is primarily an infielder.  Gallo bats from the left side, Solano from the right side. Those don't sound redundant to me.

You miss my point one is redundant in the outfield and one is redundant in the infield this is not about them compared to one another

[Riverbrian]

3 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Who is your DH, now that Larnach is in AAA? Farmer? Gordon? 

Everyone can play DH.

Why does it have to be one guy? 

These things work themselves out. 

We can't go both ways. Gallo is redundant, Solano is redundant but we don't have a DH. Redundancy can be a DH and therefore they are not redundant. We have DH's all over the place. Every team does. 

Stuffing your roster with players to the brim is not only a good thing... it's a necessary thing. 

Last year we broke camp with 16 pitchers.

The 12 position players who came North were:

Jeffers, Sanchez, Sano, Arraez, Polanco, Correa, Urshela, Gordon, Buxton, Kepler, Kirilloff, Celestino 

5 of those 12 were below average players in 2022 (Sano, Kepler, Celestino, Kirilloff, Jeffers)

5 of those players spent most of the year hurt or playing hurt (Jeffers, Sano, Polanco, Buxton, Kirilloff) 

Beyond those 12 our depth was: Miranda, Larnach, Cave, Garlick, Lewis, Palacios, Wallner, Contreras, Godoy, Beckham, C. Hamilton

This Year providing nothing else changes, we have 13 players who could potentially contribute to wins:

This Year beyond those 13: 

Julien, Martin, Lee, Lewis, Larnach, Wallner are legit depth options and we are in much better shape than last year. 

Solano didn't take Larnach's job. Larnach can hit his way back to the majors. He took the job of a player like Contreras who hopefully won't be necessary this year. 😉 

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

What you described is not competition though, it's still deferring to the vets. Vets that are likely no longer as talented, and certainly don't have the ceiling of the young guys. You might be putting together the best 40-man roster, but not the best 26-man roster. Certainly there are arguments for both perspectives, but since there's more than enough young guys at AA or above who are ready to contribute, I think you put the best 26-man roster together instead.

This.

[Mike Sixel]

26 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Everyone can play DH.

Why does it have to be one guy? 

These things work themselves out. 

We can't go both ways. Gallo is redundant, Solano is redundant but we don't have a DH. Redundancy can be a DH and therefore they are not redundant. We have DH's all over the place. Every team does. 

Stuffing your roster with players to the brim is not only a good thing... it's a necessary thing. 

Last year we broke camp with 16 pitchers.

The 12 position players who came North were:

Jeffers, Sanchez, Sano, Arraez, Polanco, Correa, Urshela, Gordon, Buxton, Kepler, Kirilloff, Celestino 

5 of those 12 were below average players in 2022 (Sano, Kepler, Celestino, Kirilloff, Jeffers)

5 of those players spent most of the year hurt or playing hurt (Jeffers, Sano, Polanco, Buxton, Kirilloff) 

Beyond those 12 our depth was: Miranda, Larnach, Cave, Garlick, Lewis, Palacios, Wallner, Contreras, Godoy, Beckham, C. Hamilton

This Year providing nothing else changes, we have 13 players who could potentially contribute to wins:

This Year beyond those 13: 

Julien, Martin, Lee, Lewis, Larnach, Wallner are legit depth options and we are in much better shape than last year. 

Solano didn't take Larnach's job. Larnach can hit his way back to the majors. He took the job of a player like Contreras who hopefully won't be necessary this year. 😉 

So you are good with Farmer or Solano at DH A LOT? I mean, who is YOUR DH given this roster? Gordon?

[Riverbrian]

1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

So you are good with Farmer or Solano at DH A LOT? I mean, who is YOUR DH given this roster? Gordon?

I'm good with Farmer or Solano anywhere a lot if they perform. If they don't perform... don't want them at all. 

I'm not looking to shove anyone into the DH box. 

Honestly,

I expect Vazquez and Jeffers to handle Catcher while Correa is my SS and Buxton is my CF.

Beyond that... the other 9 players on the opening day roster. I'll be watching to see who wants it.  

[DocBauer]

I originally stated I didn't hate the move when it was announced, but I didn't love it. I'm now liking this move an awful lot the more I think, listen, and reflect. 

My apologies that I'm repeating some comments already posted above.

The odds that everyone is 100% and ready to go to begin the season is pretty small. During the course of the season it's very rare that the "top 13" position players you'd like to write in with ink daily are all healthy at the same time. So having a 14-15 man position "crunch" just shouldn't be an issue. IF this happens, then Larnach is probably the guy who gets sent down. Like Ober in the rotation, he's too good to be in AAA. But having too many good players/pitchers is never a bad thing. And, as usual, these things tend to work themselves out. I am a HUGE believer in Larnach and I think he's a potential fixture for several years. But he does have an option. He played a full season in 2019, missed 2020, and looked great in '21 and '22 when healthy. So IF Larnach gets pushed out, playing daily at St Paul until he's needed to come up isn't a bad thing. 

Regarding any potential "blocking" of prospects, Larnach might be the only guy squeezed out initially, though Kirilloff, even if 100%, MIGHT also go to St Paul to just work on timing and get himself ramped up. Martin and Julien are great prospects, but have yet to play at AAA. Lewis won't be back until probably July. So with rosters always fluid as the season goes on, nobody is really blocked long term, and nobody has to be rushed. 

Lastly, I'm starting to think Gordon, assuming his growth and development continues, might just be the #1 batter against RHP, whether in the field or at DH. It would provide a potentially good bat with at least some budding power, speed, and allow a healthy Polanco to remain in the 3-4 spot to knock guys in and produce runs. And the Twins are apparently working much harder on running more, hit and run, take the extra base, and just be more aggressive in their approach. They recognize 2019 is over and done. 

If I took pen to napkin and just wrote out my very best roster, Solano, while a good player, wouldn't be on it. But he does provide some solid depth and versatility to raise the floor without blocking anyone because these things are always fluid. And when any/all of the younger players are ready to go, they will get their opportunity.

This is a savy signing.

[Beast]

Why is it so puzzling that they added a depth infielder?

When the inevitable injury to an infielder happens, they’ll need another swing man to replace Farmer, who will fill the starting void (no. Nick Gordon isn’t playing anywhere in the infield).

It means Joey Gallo is an outfielder.  Which, he should be (no, Nick Gordon shouldn’t be handed a starting left field job in the MLB after playing out of his mind to elevate himself to league average for two months, for the first and only time in his 10 year pro career - stop).

Im not concerned about Larnach.  He’s earned nothing.  He’s not been good when on the field.  Post-injury Alex K. hasn’t either.  I’m not concerned about Nick Gordon.  If he regresses even slightly he’s absolutely unplayable at a corner OF spot.

Solano has had recent success.  I think it’s a worthy flier.  There’s room on the roster and this team stacks injuries like cordwood.  If he fails, there’s nothing lost.  I’ve said it before, if you’re going to curl into the fetal position at the thought of lengthy contracts (which we do here), these are the kind of moves you need to make.  If that’s the route you choose, make it a numbers game.

[Squirrel]

2 hours ago, Beast said:

It means Joey Gallo is an outfielder.

I saw Gallo taking some practice at first yesterday. (At least pretty sure it was him.)

[KBJ1]

Not an exciting signing, but given that Lewis is out and Kiriloff is unknown it makes sense. Last year was a disaster with all kinds of waiver wire pickups starting games and people playing out of position. We needed someone who can play 1B and it shouldn't be Miranda or Gallo or Arraez.