Twins Have a Bullpen Pair to Break Out

[Ted Schwerzler]

The 2022 Minnesota Twins had plenty of uncertainty entering the year with regard to their bullpen. On the doorstep of Opening Day, Taylor Rogers was traded and the closer role immediately was a question mark. Fast-forward to 2023 and there are less questions, but a pair of arms could provide big answers.

 

Image courtesy of Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

It was never certain that the Twins were going to have Taylor Rogers in their long-term plans. He was entering the final year of team control, and also coming off an injury that sapped effectiveness in 2021. Emilio Pagan certainly didn’t work out in his place, but the hope is for better returns in year two.

Ultimately, it was the emergence of Jhoan Duran that all but saved Rocco Baldelli’s group last season, and the unlikeliness of that being a reality seems drastic. Duran wasn’t supposed to make the Opening Day roster, and he was largely a starting prospect until that point. He now is among the league’s best fireballers, and combined with Jorge Lopez at the back, the Twins could have a nice one-two punch.

Similar to how Duran emerged quickly to act as a cornerstone, and someone like Griffin Jax was developed into a key cog, a new duo could represent that narrative this season.

Enter Jorge Alcala and Ronny Henriquez.

After posting a 3.55 ERA during 2020 and 2021, expectations for Alcala were understandably high coming into last year. While he doesn’t possess the same triple-digit regularity as Duran, his average fastball velocity sits above 97 mph. We didn’t get to see him contribute in 2022 as injury ended his year before it truly started, but a healthy version could put him right back in the thick of high-leverage chances.

Alcala did record a save in 2021, but more importantly he was someone Baldelli could lean on in key situations. As a strikeout arm that has done a good job of limiting walks, Alcala has already proven that no matchup is too great for him at this level. He’s now had a full offseason of recovery, and although he’ll need to work his way back into the pecking order, knowing the talent is there should provide solace.

On the flip side, Henriquez is an arm that seems poised for more. Acquired from the Texas Rangers in the Mitch Garver trade, Henriquez was pitching well past his level at Triple-A. He was five years younger than the average age, and sometimes that manifested itself in his starting results.

Eventually the Twins gave Henriquez more work out of the pen, and a front office source noted early on in the season that he could be a big league factor in relief by the end of the season. That seemed lofty given his age and results, but that was the exact path that played out. Working out of the pen, Henriquez allowed an OPS nearly .150 points lower to the opposition. His ERA, while still inflated, was always more than 1.30 runs less per nine innings.

It would be foolish to expect Henriquez to contribute at the same level as Alcala immediately, but if the former is a first-half story then the latter could play in the second half. Henriquez still needs to reign in the longball a bit, but there is plenty to like about the repertoire and body of work as a whole. The Twins may have landed Isiah Kiner-Falefa for the big league roster when swinging Garver, but it was always Henriquez that seemed to be the prize.

There is validity in suggesting Minnesota could’ve targeted Michael Fulmer or Matt Moore. Maybe they’ll still find room for a different veteran to compete in the bullpen. Still, blocking someone that should re-emerge, or another arm that could be poised for a breakout, seems like it would be a misstep. After watching Duran and Jax flourish a season ago, the next pair has to be their focus.

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[Major League Ready]

I don't see Alcala as a break-out candidate.  We already know he is a good RP.  Obviously, there is room for him to be a dominant high leverage guy so I guess we could call that a break-out if he steps it up a notch from what we have seen.  He is said to be healthy and I expect him to be good.  Jovanni Moran is the guy I could see really "breaking out".  He could be great if he can just command the zone. 

[Nashvilletwin]

13 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I don't see Alcala as a break-out candidate.  We already know he is a good RP.  Obviously, there is room for him to be a dominant high leverage guy so I guess we could call that a break-out if he steps it up a notch from what we have seen.  He is said to be healthy and I expect him to be good.  Jovanni Moran is the guy I could see really "breaking out".  He could be great if he can just command the zone. 

Completely agree - Moran is the guy who could make a big leap this year into a reliable, high leverage option.

Henriquez will be a solid addition to our pen relatively soon and a key cog in the young core ‘24 pen alongside Duran, Alcala, Moran and Jax (that’s a pretty good core five) and hopefully Lopez too.

[roger]

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

I don't see Alcala as a break-out candidate.  We already know he is a good RP.  Obviously, there is room for him to be a dominant high leverage guy so I guess we could call that a break-out if he steps it up a notch from what we have seen.  He is said to be healthy and I expect him to be good.  Jovanni Moran is the guy I could see really "breaking out".  He could be great if he can just command the zone. 

Question about Moran.  Agree that it would be best if he could reduce his walks a bit.  Is it possible, however, that his being a bit wild helps him being more effective?  Don't know the answer, but is something that has me wondering?

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Completely agree - Moran is the guy who could make a big leap this year into a reliable, high leverage option.

Henriquez will be a solid addition to our pen relatively soon and a key cog in the young core ‘24 pen alongside Duran, Alcala, Moran and Jax (that’s a pretty good core five) and hopefully Lopez too.

I suspect we see a couple other starters converted over the course of this season as well.  Sands and Winder look likely now.  I would love for Canterino to bust out as a SP but that max effort delivery he has might work better in the BP.

[Major League Ready]

1 minute ago, roger said:

Question about Moran.  Agree that it would be best if he could reduce his walks a bit.  Is it possible, however, that his being a bit wild helps him being more effective?  Don't know the answer, but is something that has me wondering?

I don't really believe it that theory.  The guys that can consistently locate the corners are always going to be more effective than the guys that are "effectively wild".

[roger]

2 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I don't really believe it that theory.  The guys that can consistently locate the corners are always going to be more effective than the guys that are "effectively wild".

Certainly agree with this statement, MLR,  considering my favorite pitcher of all-time is Warren Spahn who may have been the best ever at pitching it where he wanted to.  He has stated, however, that pitching where he wanted didn't always mean throwing for a strike.

[KirbyDome89]

3 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

I don't see Alcala as a break-out candidate.  We already know he is a good RP.  Obviously, there is room for him to be a dominant high leverage guy so I guess we could call that a break-out if he steps it up a notch from what we have seen.  He is said to be healthy and I expect him to be good.  Jovanni Moran is the guy I could see really "breaking out".  He could be great if he can just command the zone. 

We do? Despite a nice 18 inning stretch to end 2021, he was borderline unusable for a large chunk of that season. We can cling to another short stretch of good performance in 2020 where his ERA greatly outperformed his FIP, but to date, his poor performances have countered the good in a limited number of career innings. He was a question mark coming into last season; that hasn't changed post elbow surgery. 

[TwinsDr2021]

3 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

We do? Despite a nice 18 inning stretch to end 2021, he was borderline unusable for a large chunk of that season. We can cling to another short stretch of good performance in 2020 where his ERA greatly outperformed his FIP, but to date, his poor performances have countered the good in a limited number of career innings. He was a question mark coming into last season; that hasn't changed post elbow surgery. 

💯 - I think he has a chance to be a good relief pitcher, but have to agree there were questions marks going into 22 and there are more going into 23.

[Rosterman]

Moran was used in multi-inning situations at sason's end, which spoke well for him (and Thielbar can also eprform that task).

I always thought Alcala could be a viable closer on a non-winning team...not total lights out, but could get the job done. Maybe he might need to do extended spring training to get back into facing batters, which would be beneficial for the couple of guys on the bubble (Megill and Pagan).

Henriquez will get to try and shine in spring training. If he can perform as a multi-inning arm, as well as back-to-back short stints, he just might make the majors sooner rather than going abck to St. Paul. I'm not sure if he will get a chance to start at St. Paul with all the current names looking for such innings. But he showed just enough spunk to be in the mix for coming north in 2023.

 

[Danchat]

6 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

We do? Despite a nice 18 inning stretch to end 2021, he was borderline unusable for a large chunk of that season. We can cling to another short stretch of good performance in 2020 where his ERA greatly outperformed his FIP, but to date, his poor performances have countered the good in a limited number of career innings. He was a question mark coming into last season; that hasn't changed post elbow surgery. 

Agreed, I've been high on Alcala but he was trash for a good portion of 2021, they never demoted him but he certainly deserved it. I'm also going to need to see more than just 18 good innings to declare him a good reliever.

[DocBauer]

I've seen enough of Alcala to believe he's got a bright future in the Twins pen. I think his improvement to end 2021 shows that potential. As I recall, he looked pretty good in ST last year as well. But agree, coming off a mostly lost year, he's got to prove the control is back. But I'm pretty optimistic. 

I have to, generally, agree with the Twins philosophy of not transitioning a potential SP, like Henriquez,  too early to the pen. The kid was only 22yo at AAA last year. He might just surprise in 2023 and begin to harness his stuff and surprise. And I think it's a mistake to look at his physical stature and just assume he can't be very good as a SP. We've seen a lot of shorter/smaller frame guys who turned out to be quality SP. But it's not the norm to be sure. And something about him just screams "potential big time BP arm" and I think that's where he ends up.

Also agree that Moran should be in the discussion. Despite his 2022 AAA numbers not being very good, he's been outstanding in his milb career, and threw much better for the Twins than he did for the Saints. Bad luck? Who knows? But I think he's arrived and is ready.

I believe Sands is the next conversion arm. Probably better velocity in the pen on shorter stints, and he's got some NASTY breaking stuff.

From what I recall, Winder's worst pitch in 2022 was his FB. Someone please correct me if I'm wrong. Was it just control? Was he over throwing? I think past performance would have me keeping him stretched out as a SP for now, and hope a "normal" offseason and ST will alleviate his shoulder issue, and get him back on track as a rotation option.

[Linus]

Alcala has struggled to get lefties out except for about a month. Way to many questions here to count on him. Henriquez stunk at St Paul last year. Not saying he can’t make it but logic would dictate that he needs more time and to assume success is foolish. 

[by jiminy]

Yeah, it maybe should have said, "Alcala has already proved no matchup is too great for him, except lefties." But he is already up to 97 mph this spring, and if he can master an off speed pitch to flummox lefties he could be lights out.