Twins Daily 2023 Top 20 Prospects: Recap & Analysis

Nick Nelson · February 20, 2023

We've spent the past few weeks revealing our choices for the top prospects in the Twins organization. Now, let's take a step back and assess the state of the system.

Image courtesy of Thiéres Rabelo, Twins Daily

The purpose of these rankings is to take stock of the Twins farm system leading up to the start of the season. This year we asked 10 different Twins Daily writers, all of whom follow the minors closely, to share their choices for the current top 30 Twins prospects. Then we aggregated them into the list that's been gradually rolled out here over the past few weeks.

This is a snapshot in time. Prospect rankings are never static, and in order to better follow the movement that occurs over time, last year we launched the Twins Daily Prospect Tracker. It's updated monthly throughout the season with new stats, insights, and re-rankings. I recommend bookmarking that page and checking back often if you love to follow the next generation of Twins talent.

For today, we're going to dive deep on that next generation and how it's shaping the future of the franchise. First, here's a rundown of this year's top 20 rankings – you can click on each player's name to find a profile on him from one of our writers.

Minnesota Twins 2023 Top 20 Prospects

20. Misael Urbina, OF: Has come along slowly since signing as a top int'l talent out of DR in 2018, but still 20 with big tools.
19. Jose Rodriguez, OF: Opened eyes with a spectacular and rare power display in the Dominican Summer League.
18. Tanner Schobel, 2B: 2022 second-round pick saw his college power spike evaporate in pro debut, fading his hype.
17. Ronny Henriquez, RHP: Slider-slinging 22-year-old seems destined to break through in full-time relief role.
16. Jordan Balazovic, RHP: Stellar track record keeps him on the radar following a disastrous year at Triple-A.
15. Matt Canterino, RHP: Maybe the best raw stuff in the organization, but TJ surgery will sideline him again this year.
14. Noah Miller, SS: Outstanding fielder needs to find some semblance of offensive game other than drawing walks.
13. David Festa, RHP: Former 13th-rounder's domination of Single-A sparks hope for another deep-draft pitching find.
12. Yasser Mercedes, OF: Club's biggest int'l signing last summer flashed all five tools in highly impressive rookie-ball debut.
11. Matt Wallner, OF: His off-the-charts raw power will play in the bigs if he can stay relatively disciplined at plate.
10. Austin Martin, SS: Huge dropoff after topping this list a year ago, but the speedy OBP specialist can rebound.
9. Louie Varland, RHP: Continues to outperform his stuff, but also, the stuff continues to get better for hard-working SP.
8. Jose Salas, INF: Twins picked up a dynamic young athlete via Arraez trade in this versatile switch-hitting infielder.
7. Connor Prielipp, LHP: Slid to Twins in second round of latest draft coming off elbow surgery, but has frontline SP traits.
6. Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP: Reached majors at age 22 following lights-out campaign between AA/AAA.
5. Edouard Julien, 2B: He has raked in the minors with an ultra-patient approach, and is knocking on MLB door.
4. Marco Raya, RHP: Word is out on the best-kept secret in Twins system, who dazzled in pro debut at Fort Myers.
3. Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF: Flashed superstar talent and production during full-season debut cut short by knee injury.
2. Royce Lewis, SS: Cemented legitimacy during a convincing return to action before being struck by another torn ACL.
1. Brooks Lee, SS: Drafted eighth overall with a bat that pretty much looked MLB-ready as soon as he reached the pro field.

A True Deadlock at the Top
The most fascinating dynamic of this year's rankings was the choice between Lee and Lewis for number one. I cannot possibly overstate how accurate the word "deadlock" is in describing the lack of separation between these high-end talents in our ranking process.

The results from tabulating our panel of 10 voters placed the two in an exact tie: five voters picked Lewis, five picked Lee. In order to try and swing things one way or the other, we reached out for off-the-record opinions on the matter from a variety of trusted sources: scouting contacts, prospect analysts, baseball people inside the Twins organization and out.

You know what came back? Pretty much a 50/50 split exactly. Almost everyone expressed a variation of the same sentiment: It's really hard to compare the two directly, because it all comes down to the upside & risk versus safety & floor equation. "If I had to choose, I guess I'd go with X."

We all want to dream on the lofty upside Lewis still possesses: the potential for an electric power/speed combo from shortstop or center field, combined with character and charisma on the Jeter Scale. But no one can ignore the realities of a career that's been sabotaged by injuries, the latest of which undeniably clouds his future outlook.

How do you properly account for this in projecting him as a major-league player? And how do you compare him to someone like Lee, who probably has a lower overall ceiling but also has one of the highest floors you could ask for in a prospect? Lee looked so polished and adept during his pro debut after signing last year that he found his way to Wichita for the Double-A playoffs and was up to the task.

Lee makes it look really easy, and that's the highest compliment you can pay a 21-year-old barely out of college and facing experienced pro competition.

Ultimately, we went with Lee as our choice for as the top Twins prospect of 2023, because the feedback we received seemed to tilt ever-so-slightly in that direction and because the majority of publications we chart our rankings against – MLB.com, Baseball Prospectus, The Athletic (both Keith Law and Aaron Gleeman) – have Lee in front of Lewis.

But if there's a strong consensus to be found around these two it's this: the Twins are very lucky to have them both.

Restocking the Low Minors with Upside
Lee and Lewis both contribute to a robust top end of the pipeline, joining the likes of Julien, Woods Richardson, Varland, Martin, and Wallner as quality prospects who could essentially be ready to make an MLB impact at any time. But a number of breakthroughs from recent draft classes and recent high-profile international signings have populated the lower levels with promising young talent.

This was missing last year, when essentially all 10 of our top prospects were in the high minors and approaching MLB-readiness, save for Chase Petty who got traded shortly after we published. The emergences of teenaged players like Emmanuel Rodriguez, Raya, and Mercedes – bolstered by the acquisition of Salas in the Luis Arraez trade – have done wonders for the lower levels of this system, and the franchise's long-term talent landscape.

Still Lacking Catcher Talent
The lack of standout catching prospects in Minnesota's system is something I noted last year, even before Mitch Garver and Ben Rortvedt were traded away. It's now even more conspicuous. The Twins have sought to backfill at the MLB level with veterans like Gary Sánchez and now Christian Vázquez, but the future of this position continues to hinge on Ryan Jeffers, who has proven little at age 25.

Not only were there zero catching prospects in our top 20, but if you zoom out to the top 30, none are found in the 21-through-30 range either. The highest I've seen a catcher ranked by anyone is Noah Cardenas, who was 25th on Gleeman's top 40 list, but Cardenas was profiled there as a "future backup with some starter upside."

Another tough year for Jeffers, with Vázquez under control through 2025 but turning 33 in August, would leave the organization's outlook pretty flimsy behind the plate unless new names emerge.

Rebound Scenarios Present X-factors
Aside from some of the big risers, the most stark movements from last year's rankings were the dramatic downfalls of Martin (#1 last year, #10 this year) and Balazovic (#4 last year, #16 this year). Those are tough blows for the system and help explain why it's generally viewed as middling compared to the league. (Law ranked them 19th out of 30 organizations at The Athletic earlier this month.)

The flip side is this: it's only one season, and these players are not far removed from being viewed as viable (and imminent) difference-makers with convincing track records. Martin and Balazovic are legit talents, and both will be 24 this year with ample experience in the high minors. A turnaround for either could quickly thrust them into the big-league picture.

Who's Your Pick to Click in 2023?
I asked this at the conclusion of last year's recap article, so I'll send it your way again. Who is your pick to click and make a huge jump in the rankings in 2023?

Last year I the name I submitted was Marco Raya, and he went from Honorable Mentions to #4 on our list, so that went well. This year I will go with Keoni Cavaco, who was merely an Honorable Mention this year having fallen off the radar in three unproductive seasons since being drafted 13th overall in 2019.

Cavaco wasn't good last year, but he did seem to take a step forward and he remains an athletic and toolsy infielder. I like him to escape the pitcher-friendly Florida State League and put together a strong age-21 season that vaults him back into the top 20.

How about you?

Past Rankings

Twins Daily Links: Misael Urbina, OF, Jose Rodriguez, OF, Tanner Schobel, 2B, Ronny Henriquez, RHP, Jordan Balazovic, RHP, Matt Canterino, RHP, Noah Miller, SS, David Festa, RHP, Yasser Mercedes , OF, Matt Wallner, OF, Austin Martin, SS, Louie Varland, RHP. Jose Salas, INF, Connor Prielipp, LHP, Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP, Edouard Julien, 2B, Marco Raya, RHP, Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF, Royce Lewis, SS, Brooks Lee, SS.

Baseball-Reference Links: Misael Urbina, OF, Jose Rodriguez, OF, Tanner Schobel, 2B, Ronny Henriquez, RHP, Jordan Balazovic, RHP, Matt Canterino, RHP, Noah Miller, SS, David Festa, RHP, Yasser Mercedes, OF, Matt Wallner, OF, Austin Martin, SS, Louie Varland, RHP. Jose Salas, INF, Connor Prielipp, LHP, Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP, Edouard Julien, 2B, Marco Raya, RHP, Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF, Royce Lewis, SS, Brooks Lee, SS.

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TNTwinsFan · February 20, 2023

P2C: Alejandro Hidalgo. Love to see that kid in the Top 10 next year.

Also, loving the international prospects the Twins have right now. Impressive group of guys who will be excitng to watch develop.

jkcarew · February 20, 2023

Always a fun exercise.

Last year your Raya bet was the equivalent of a craps player putting $2 on 8. This year, with Cavaco, you’re putting your money on snake eyes. Really, really long odds there, IMO.

More likely would be someone like Severino, Nowlin, Salas…even Enlow or Sabato?

Nick Nelson · February 20, 2023

1 hour ago, jkcarew said:

Last year your Raya bet was the equivalent of a craps player putting $2 on 8. This year, with Cavaco, you’re putting your money on snake eyes. Really, really long odds there, IMO.

I figured I had to up the stakes this time 😎

Dman · February 20, 2023

I am going to go with Ben Ross. He had hit .400 pretty much everywhere he went (granted he didn't play D1 Ball) and he had a solid pro debut. I think he could be 1st round special but will have to wait and see,

For someone who has been in the system at least one year I am going to go with Miller. He has the eye at the plate. He has great defense. He just needs to get more solid contact. I think he does that this year and vaults his way into the top 10 Twins prospect list.

My longshot pick would be Daulton Shuffield. They threw him to the sharks at AAA last year and he hit the ball as well a lot of more seasoned guys there. Probably not room for him to start the season there but he could break out no matter where they put him. He looks like a legit bat to me even if he is an older first time prospect.

This really is a crazy ask though as this system has lot's guys that could be poised for big breakouts. In Short season ball you have Nova, Chourio, Cruz, Acuna, Pena, Daniel and Ortiz not even counting Mercedes and Rodriguez who have had mini breakouts. At A ball Rosario, Olivar, Miller, Ross, Cossetti, Biaz, Shobel and Pena. On the pitching side Prielipp, Mcleod, Morris and Lewis. The list could go on and on and I didn't even include High A to AAA.

There really are a lot of player with good potential to break out all over the system but baseball is hard. Injuries and weaknesses that slow players development (or kill it) can be hard to overcome. Will be fun to watch and see who has an Emmanual Rodriguez type of year. As you can tell I am bullish on a ton of players this year.

mikelink45 · February 20, 2023

Balazovic just got his jaw broken according to Vanimal - he just seems to be going the wrong way.

I do not see room for Martin with Lewis and Lee and Farmer and Polanco and Miranda ahead of him in the IF and Taylor and a full OF roster also blocking him. Plus his drop. The same problem exists for Julien - are these two trade baits?

I am interested in projections - Lee and Lewis are close to guarantees for big league production above average.

Rodriguez seems like he is on a star track (not trek).

Then come the questions. Raya has jumped over Winder, Balazovic, Sands, and all the other former highly ranked pitchers who we were expecting to see on the big league roster. Will he be here next year? Is Varland the next call up? Will Canterino quit following our injury reputation? Balazovic was bad last year and now starts the year with a broken jaw is he on a bad spiral? Does Richardson bypass the other SP and leap to the Twins when we next need a SP?

Will Wallner play for us or is he trade bait?

Prospects are graded against one another, but it is so hard to say which will actually make the grade in the majors.

Nashvilletwin · February 20, 2023

Here is another way to categorize our top 20 (barring injury):

Can’t Miss - All Star Potential - Lee, Lewis

Solid MLB Starter - Julien, SWR, Varland, Henriquez (RP)

Starter Potential, Likely MLBer - Salas, Martin, Miller, Wallner, Canterino, Festa

Huge Ceiling Lottery Pick - ERodriguez, Raya, Prielipp, Mercedes, JRodriguez

More to Prove/Potential Utility Player - Urbina, Schobel, Balazovic

That’s 17 players with true MLB starter potential, split between ten position players and seven pitchers. However, there are no catchers. There is a good rollout of timing between those ready soon (‘23 and ‘24) and those coming later (‘25 and ‘26). The five lotteries offer big, big upside.

Together with a couple of key veterans (Correa, Buxton), some solid existing MLB young talent (Ryan, Ober, Duran, Alcala, Moran, Jax, Miranda, Kiriloff, Larnach, Gordon, Vasquez and Jeffers), and the financial flexibility to add key FAs and/or veterans via trades to fill holes, the future looks pretty solid overall for a fun to watch and competitive franchise for the next five plus years.

BTW, last year I chose Canterino. This year I’m not choosing to avoid jinxing anyone.

jmlease1 · February 20, 2023

It's going to be really interesting to see how the system develops over the next couple of seasons. They're looking at graduating quite a bit of talent over a period of 3 years or so, combined with having made some trades of prospects for MLB talent, so it's a little thinner and more vulnerable than in recent years. That said, the goal of a system isn't to be highly ranked, it's to turn guys into productive major leaguers for the club, or flip as assets for the club.

I think they're going to need some of their international signings to pay out in order to keep the pipeline flowing. Hopefully they do well with the upcoming picks and can add high-end talent as well.

The weakness at catcher is definitely an area of concern...but I think that's going to be a problem for a lot of teams. It's one of the toughest positions to fill with a player who can both hit, receive, and throw. It's arguably harder than SS to find; clubs tend not to accept a flawed candidate at SS, but catching is so limited that you'll pass along a guy who is well below-average in one of those areas if they can compete in the others. At SS, guys get moved off to another position rather than settle. Hopefully the Twins can start finding some options to add to the system, because the need will always be there.

It's going to be interesting to see how the pitchers develop. There's some really interesting options. Is there an ace in there? Hard to say. Most evaluators won't rank any starter as an ace (no one wants to go out on that limb) so it's not worth getting upset if they call a pitcher a middle or back of the rotation upside guy. That's butt-covering 101 to me. If you have enough quality guys that can fall in that range, don't be shocked if one emerges.

roger · February 20, 2023

Great review, Nick. Thanks!

Agree with the concern of lack of catching. Is the next Johnny Bench out there who may be available at #5 this year?

When thinking of long shots to break out this year, is Wander Javier still in the organization?

As for the Lee vs Lewis debate, I go with Lewis. Just may put Rodriguez at #2.

KirbyHawk75 · February 20, 2023

I think ERod will be number 1 next year IF he can stay healthy, which is always a worry with Twins prospects. I really hope for the Twins sake but most importantly his sake Lewis can stay healthy this season.

PTC: Martin. I think he bounces back and becomes a top 5 prospect in our farm again. He has lost some of his appeal with no power, but Arraez had no power either but led the league in BA. Plus, Martin is faster.

Blyleven2011 · February 20, 2023

2 hours ago, roger said:

Great review, Nick. Thanks!

Agree with the concern of lack of catching. Is the next Johnny Bench out there who may be available at #5 this year?

When thinking of long shots to break out this year, is Wander Javier still in the organization?

As for the Lee vs Lewis debate, I go with Lewis. Just may put Rodriguez at #2.

I think I read Javier he has moved on to San Diego Padres organization ...

D.C Twins · February 20, 2023

I'll go Lawyerson (though nobody outside of the top 20 really stood out to me)

tony&rodney · February 20, 2023

Byron Chourio - just because of the name.

bird · February 20, 2023

P2C: Danny De Andrade

bird · February 20, 2023

21 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Byron Chourio - just because of the name.

Oh, I like this pick. Especially if he's anything like Jackson Chourio (Milwaukee) or Jaison Chourio (Cleveland). Unfortunately they are not Byron's siblings I'm told.

DJL44 · February 20, 2023

5 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

However, there are no catchers.

Carlos Silva has starter upside.

2wins87 · February 20, 2023

I like Nowlin as a pick to click. I liked the ranking at #21 from TD after he didn't even seem to be on the radar for a few other lists I've seen. I might move him up a couple of spots already, but I could see him moving into the top 10 quickly this season if he continues to refine his control and secondaries.

There were a couple of low money IFA signees from last year that performed well in the DSL. I don't expect them all to transition to the states seamlessly, but I think one of them will look good in the FCL and raise his profile significantly. Anderson Nova, Daniel Pena, and Isaac Pena are 3 that I'll be watching in the FCL boxscores.

sweetmusicviola16 · February 20, 2023

My rebound pick will be Austin Martin, too many gave up on him too easily.

Pick to click will be Connor Prielipp, he will put in 80IP this season and be on everyones Top10 ML list going into 2024.

My pick for fastest riser will be Alejandro Hidalgo, the guy we picked up from the Angels for Urshela. He's still only 19. 13.4K/9 last season in Cali league.

Doctor Gast · February 20, 2023

Your spot on again Nick. Couldn't agree with you more. Our farm has tremendous depth to come up to fill in, some areas we have a large glut of future MLBers. Except catching.

I was very disappointed that they traded both Garver & Rortvedt. I'd have worked out a trade with Jeffers instead because #1) he had a tremendously much higher trade value than the 2 of them combined. #2) I never seen him as a starting catcher for any substantial amount of time especially this season I expect runners will run at will against him. The Jeffers/ Sanchez duo was absolutely terrible with in house options shedding no hope. IMO it's a waste of time having Vasquez mentoring Jeffers, we should have a bona vide MLB ready catching prospect behind him instead. Jeffers will be worthless soon if he's not traded.

My break out player is Noah Miller because after he graduates from low A, his bat will come alive to accompany his elite glove at SS. Also Martin will jump back into the top 3. After moving on from tinkering with his swing, he seems to have found his groove. Plus if they move him from SS to CF his stock will rise. His RH bat will be welcomed there. If he really acclimates quickly to AAA & CF, with his elite OPS & base running (I also expect a jump in his slugging), He could push the envelope to lose his prospect status.

sweetmusicviola16 · February 21, 2023

19 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Your spot on again Nick. Couldn't agree with you more. Our farm has tremendous depth to come up to fill in, some areas we have a large glut of future MLBers. Except catching.

I was very disappointed that they traded both Garver & Rortvedt. I'd have worked out a trade with Jeffers instead because #1) he had a tremendously much higher trade value than the 2 of them combined. #2) I never seen him as a starting catcher for any substantial amount of time especially this season I expect runners will run at will against him. The Jeffers/ Sanchez duo was absolutely terrible with in house options shedding no hope. IMO it's a waste of time having Vasquez mentoring Jeffers, we should have a bona vide MLB ready catching prospect behind him instead. Jeffers will be worthless soon if he's not traded.

My break out player is Noah Miller because after he graduates from low A, his bat will come alive to accompany his elite glove at SS. Also Martin will jump back into the top 3. After moving on from tinkering with his swing, he seems to have found his groove. Plus if they move him from SS to CF his stock will rise. His RH bat will be welcomed there. If he really acclimates quickly to AAA & CF, with his elite OPS & base running (I also expect a jump in his slugging), He could push the envelope to lose his prospect status.

Vazquez has caught 240 games the last two seasons. I'm good with him being the flat out starter myself instead of this platoon with Jeffers. Makes the team better imo.

I like Miller as well. It was a toss up for me between him and Hidalgo for break out player.

DocBauer · February 21, 2023

Great work Nick, as always, and kudos to you and all the writers who have contriguted to this series.

I still really like the system, despite some downgrades in opinion from various sources due to graduations and trades. While there are a number of recent graduates that have somewhat depleted the system, it doesn't bother me because that's what they are SUPPOSED to do. What stinks is some injuries that have slowed many of those graduates; Kirilloff, Larnach, Alcala probably most of all. But their potential impact can't be denied when you look at ability.

On the PLUS side, I still see some potential high end, difference makers in the system such as Lewis, Lee, Rodriguez, Raya, Prielipp, and I'd include Julian as well. Then there's a handful of Martin and Balazovic that could be on that list with a rebound in 2023. Yes, I'm including Balazovic because the talent remains despite his latest setback.

On the NEGATIVE side, I see a discrepancy in the system from the top 10 to the bottom of the top 20 and carrying over in to the 20-30 range. Still some potentially very good players with futures, but overcoming injuries, and just being very young. And the trades have something to do with that, of course.

But I like the depth in the system overall. I can easily see guys like Canterino and Enlow, and a few others having really good careers still, and climbing these lists in the near future. And there's more than a handful I can see surprising everyone and carving out a career. Just for example, someone like Anthony Prato, who played just about everywhere for Wichita last season, and quietly put up a very good offensive season, could be a very good utility/role player in the near future.

We definitely need help at catcher, which is why 5 of them have been selected in the last 2 drafts. Now, someone needs to step up from that group, and hopefully soon. At least there's numbers and potential there, albeit, little experience.

Interesting to note that there are 6 international signings in the top 20, whether by the Twins or acquired. And there are a few kids outside the 20 that might make a move in 2023 to challenge.

I believe I picked both Raya and Severino last season when we picked different pitchers and players at various levels to click. I may have picked Festa, but can't recall for sure, or my other choices at the moment. I'll stand by Severino as he was pretty good at 2 levels and seemed to finally get his game on. Raya was everything hoped for.

For this year, on the mound, I think Prielipp is too easy of a choice. I'm looking at Nowlin to make a believer out of people, and for 2022 draft pick Cory Lewis to make a Festa like move and get people's attention. Just a hunch. I also have my eye on Zebby Matthew's, from the same draft last year. Again, just a hunch.

On the player side, I will go with Miller starting to flash a little more power and BA to go along with his plate discipline. And I'm going out on a limb here to suggest that a pair of catchers selected in 2021 might surprise and muscle their way in to the top 20. Pat Winkel went from draft choice with a few low A games to being at A+ CR and held his own. The previously mentioned Cardenas didn't have great numbers, but was solid with an outstanding OB%, telling me has an idea how to hit. My darkhorse is Will Holland, 5th round pick from Auburn in the 2019 draft. He hasn't hit much yet, but has shown an OK OB%, is athletic, has great speed, and seems to have just about fully converted to CF. He was promoted to AA for about 1/3 of the season. If his bat starts to catch up with athleticism, he might surprise.

bird · February 21, 2023

7 hours ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

My rebound pick will be Austin Martin, too many gave up on him too easily.

Pick to click will be Connor Prielipp, he will put in 80IP this season and be on everyones Top10 ML list going into 2024.

My pick for fastest riser will be Alejandro Hidalgo, the guy we picked up from the Angels for Urshela. He's still only 19. 13.4K/9 last season in Cali league.

Great picks.

DJL44 · February 21, 2023

My rebound pick is Matt Canterino. Hoping he comes back from ligament replacement surgery strong in September.

Mike Sixel · February 21, 2023

I am a big believer in Martin, so he's my bounce back and pick to click. Gonna be a huge year for him.....

Nine of twelve · February 22, 2023

On 2/20/2023 at 9:10 AM, jmlease1 said:

The weakness at catcher is definitely an area of concern... It's one of the toughest positions to fill with a player who can hit, receive, and throw.

A catcher who has all of these tools is a very rare player. We Twins fans were spoiled for many years having Mauer who was elite in all three areas as well as strong at working with pitchers. If with luck we can find an up-and-coming catcher who is satisfactory we should be happy.

Mike Sixel · February 22, 2023

Fangraphs has their updated top 100.

Lee is very, very high, though the expected date is weird (and people are asking about it).

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-top-100-prospects/

well, here's the answer:

The ETAs correspond to when guys need to be added to the 40-man for Rule 5 protection, rather than expected MLB debut.

Mike Sixel · February 22, 2023

not me:

Mike