What Are Realistic Expectations for Randy Dobnak?

[Stew]

Dobnack shows some promise. But he might split time between AA/AAA  this year. I count 12 starters between  AAA and the majors. I think he needs to restart his trip up the ladder. It's most important to get his health in check. Then the rest could fall into place.

[Old Crow]

It's worth a try why not?  

[FlyingFinn]

6 hours ago, roger said:

How can you not cheer for this young man?  Does he find a way back?  Count me among those who are cheering for him.

I am cheering for him as well. Just think his shot is to pitch great at AAA and get traded to a team that has a spot. Only chance would be to sneak in a spot in the long relief role with the Twins before SWR, Varland, etc. are promoted. I just don't think he will be able to prove himself in time to do it. The injuries/performance the past two years cost him his chance when the Twins really needed someone.

[NotAboutWinning]

I'm hoping he becomes a legendary baseball story of a pitcher turning a devastating injury into a devastating pitch no one has seen before!

[rwilfong86]

5 hours ago, joefish said:

I will be surprised if we see him pitch again. I have doubted him all the way. 

 

3 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

His only comeback route to MLB is as a relief pitcher.

If he makes it back to the MLB, I can't imagine it will be as a starter unless he develops another quality pitch besides the sinker. He seems like a legit nice guy so I wish him the best but yeah I will be surprised if he is on an MLB mound again.

[rwilfong86]

1 hour ago, FlyingFinn said:

I am cheering for him as well. Just think his shot is to pitch great at AAA and get traded to a team that has a spot. Only chance would be to sneak in a spot in the long relief role with the Twins before SWR, Varland, etc. are promoted. I just don't think he will be able to prove himself in time to do it. The injuries/performance the past two years cost him his chance when the Twins really needed someone.

He is a Pennsylvania guy, maybe they can trade him to the Pirates. With his glorious 'stache he could become a cult hero there.

[milkytoast]

For an article called, "What Are Realistic Expectations for Randy Dobnak?" you forgot to talk about what the realistic expectations for Randy Dobnak are.

 

[jkcarew]

You know that time you saw your kid doing something stupid, but it was obvious that there wouldn’t be significant consequences, so you just shook your head instead of dressing him down? Such was the FO deal given Dobnak. Harmless, but bewildering, and not exactly confidence-inspiring.

Nevertheless, I remain happy for Dobnak, he had some perseverance to him, got the payday, and will continue to enjoy that for another 3 years…and probably the rest of his life.

I don’t expect to see him in the majors in 2023 under anything less than apocalyptic Twins-baseball circumstances…by that I mean there’s a 50% chance.

[sampleSizeOfOne]

Realistic expectations?
 

Twins will find a place for him to work through things, either towards his old stuff, or reinventing a repoitoir if he can't do quite what he wa doing.

 

Given that, he won't be added back to the 40 until they are ready to use him, and pretty sure he can have success.

 

Personally, i think he'll be worth having by the end of the summer, even if he is still not 40 manned, but getting to be an elder statesman in the minors, much like Albers. And yeah, i wouldn't count him out. He still has unfinished business against the Yankees in the playoffs...

[Brandon]

If Dobnak makes 30 starts in the majors it’s because he’s pitching better than the other prospects who are higher rated and putting up consistently good numbers to be able to stay in the rotation.  Do I expect that this season no.  He could get half a season as a reliever and spot starter this year.  But next year we are short 3 starters.  It would be nice if he was a viable 5th starter for next year.  I have no expectations other than I hope he can make it back and add 1 WAR to his totals to justify his extension.  

[cHawk]

A realistic expectation for Dobnak would be that he is able to get 3-6 outs in a 7-run game.

If Falvine rely on him for anything beyond that, they are asking for trouble. He was a good pitcher for about two months back in the Summer of 2020. That stretch was clearly the exception, not the rule.

Any positive impact Dobnak makes for the Twins this year should be looked at as a bonus, not as a foundation for the team's success.

[USAFChief]

31 minutes ago, Brandon said:

If Dobnak makes 30 starts in the majors...

...the Twins will finish at the bottom of the ALC.

[AceWrigley]

Dobnak had ligaments called pulleys in his right middle finger rupture over the past two years.

From Dr. Jonathan Cluett:

- - - - - - - -

Finger Pulleys

Everyone has structures in their fingers called digital pulleys (doctors often use the words "digit" and "finger" interchangeably). These digital pulleys are specialized structures that hold the tendons against the bones of the fingers. Without these pulleys in the fingers, a problem called bowstringing of the tendons would occur.

Treatment
If there is bowstringing of the tendons, then more careful management of the injury needs to occur. This does not always mean surgery is necessary, but there are specialized splints and therapy techniques that can allow the pulleys to heal properly. Only in situations where there are multiple pulley ruptures or if there is delayed treatment should surgery be necessary.

As far as returning to activity, this varies significantly with the severity of the injury. With mild pulley strains, the full activity can be resumed as soon as swelling and pain have subsided. For full ruptures that are being treated non-surgically, duration of treatment is typically between one and three months. For people who require surgical reconstruction of a pulley injury, there may be restrictions for up to a year from the time of surgery.

- - - - - - - -

If I understand correctly, Randy chose rest and rehab (plus a cortisone shot) versus surgery since there isn't any precedent for baseball players having such a procedure and resuming their careers. 

From RotoWire:

"Dobnak's oft-injured finger has been pain-free all winter, and he's been throwing bullpen sessions without issue, Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune reports. "I think we're way over the hump now. I've been down here for a month. I threw live Friday, that was probably my 10th bullpen," Dobnak said. "I've been slinging it fine." Dobnak does not have great velocity, but he generated ground balls at a high rate before his injury. His success was largely due to his sinker, and the Star Tribune report says he's had to modify the pitch with more horizontal break due to the damaged finger."

I'm one Twin's fan pulling for him. Don't dis The Dobnak.

 

[Brandon]

4 hours ago, USAFChief said:

...the Twins will finish at the bottom of the ALC.

If Dobnak makes 30 starts it’s because he is pitching great.  We have too many options that can pitch well.  It would take many injuries for that to be the reason he gets 30 starts.  Injuries are more likely to get him 10 starts give or take.

[Major League Ready]

We don't need Dobnak at all this year so I don't understand why his value is being defined as what he does this year.  They have several guys that should be looked at in front of Dobnak.  Let him take the entire year to add a pitch or tweak the ones he has currently.  Frankly, I am hoping that Dobnak pitches great but Ober / Varland / SWR / Winder / Canterino / Festa / Henriquez, and Paddack block Dobnak from every getting a shot.  Hopefully, he is good enough to be a trade asset.

[Heiny]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

We don't need Dobnak at all this year so I don't understand why his value is being defined as what he does this year.  They have several guys that should be looked at in front of Dobnak.  Let him take the entire year to add a pitch or tweak the ones he has currently.  Frankly, I am hoping that Dobnak pitches great but Ober / Varland / SWR / Winder / Canterino / Festa / Henriquez, and Paddack block Dobnak from every getting a shot.  Hopefully, he is good enough to be a trade asset.

Not quite sure why you would say that.  If Dobnak could miraculously come back and pitch well enough to beat out Ober / Varland / SWR / Winder / Canterino / Festa / Henriquez, and Paddack, why shouldn't he get that shot.  Not to cut down any of these guys, but have any of them other than Ober done in the bigs what Dobnak has done or shown promise of?  Personally, I will not count him out until he has counted himself out.  And I love rooting for a longshot, which he may be,  but it is not out of the realm of possibility.  And what a great story his comeback would make.

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, Heiny said:

Not quite sure why you would say that.  If Dobnak could miraculously come back and pitch well enough to beat out Ober / Varland / SWR / Winder / Canterino / Festa / Henriquez, and Paddack, why shouldn't he get that shot.  Not to cut down any of these guys, but have any of them other than Ober done in the bigs what Dobnak has done or shown promise of?  Personally, I will not count him out until he has counted himself out.  And I love rooting for a longshot, which he may be,  but it is not out of the realm of possibility.  And what a great story his comeback would make.

In the first draft of my post, I actually qualified my statement with unless Dobnak has a miraculous comeback.  Then, I deleted that part because it seemed highly unlikely.  I too would love for him to pitch so well as to force his way in front of those other pitchers.