Is This Where Byron Buxton’s Injuries End?

[Ted Schwerzler]

Over the years, Minnesota Twins fans have seen Byron Buxton go from a player that the organization wanted to beat out ground balls to among the best talents in the game. The only problem is that his availability has been limited along the way. What if this is where that ends?

 

Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

Let’s first start by relieving pressure from new trainer Nick Paparesta. I don’t think anyone in the Twins organization views him as a savior of sorts, but there is no denying that his addition comes on the heels of a 2022 that saw a ridiculous amount of injury. Introducing new training techniques, the hope for Minnesota would be that players remain on the field more.

No one is more important in that endeavor than Byron Buxton.

On April 7, the Twins seventh game of the season in 2022, Buxton led off the game with a double against the Boston Red Sox. When sliding into second base, he jammed his knee, pounded his fist, and it looked as though his season may be over. Surprisingly, he missed just six games and returned on April 21 against the Kansas City Royals. Two days later, against the Chicago White Sox, he was 4-for-4 with a homer and looked like a superhero. The problem was that he never felt the same.

Routinely, Buxton found himself on the trainer’s table. He was getting fluid drained from his knee frequently. There was fear of infection. There were countless hours of rehab. In short, the superstar from Baxley, Georgia, was doing his best impression to look like the Superman from Smallville, Kansas.

From the point  he injured the knee against the Red Sox through his ultimate shutdown in August, Buxton played 85 games for the Twins. A good portion of those came as a designated hitter, attempting to keep his bat in the lineup while removing some pressure from his legs. Unfortunately, that also substantially saps the value such a great defender brings to the field, and Buxton had to feel less than ideal by providing only half of his value.

Getting into a total of 92 games last season, something Buxton noted as the most he’s played in since 2017, the Twins saw him produce 4.0 fWAR. On a per game basis, he has been right there with the likes of Mike Trout, Aaron Judge, or Paul Goldschmidt. The question for years has not been whether the talent was real, but how often it could matter.

Turning the page to 2023, Minnesota is hoping the fluke injuries end. There is no way to predict a knee going into the ground harshly on a slide. A hit by pitch shouldn’t always break a hand, and a dive forward into grass shouldn’t always result in a concussion. There was a time that Buxton’s style of play put him in harm's way, but even there Minnesota has worked to keep their talent healthy.

Looking at projections for the upcoming season, Fangraphs’ Steamer has Buxton launching 32 homers across 130 games. Last season, he put up 28 in just 92 games. ZiPS projections have the Twins centerfielder at 22 home runs, but that system has him registering just 90 games. The total could conceivably be somewhere in the middle, but if Buxton plays anywhere close to 130 games, he may double the 3.6 fWAR seen for him in that time by Steamer.

As a whole, baseball does a poor job marketing its stars. Trout is hidden in Los Angeles as is his teammate Shohei Ohtani. The East Coast teams often get their due, and Mookie Betts has recently been the darling of the Dodgers. Although Minnesota will never be on that level, for Buxton to be in any national conversations, he must remain on the field. Fans wanting to see what that looks like over a near-162 games could be treated to something special.

Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have put a strong foot forward for Rocco Baldelli with this club. Carlos Correa is here to stay. Byron Buxton being healthy and amazing is something everyone is waiting to present itself.

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[jmlease1]

I hope beyond hope Buxton has a healthy season. he's the most exciting Twins player in a very long time, a highlight waiting to happen. And everything we know says he's a good dude too. 

[miracleb]

That would be very disappointing if Buxton plays in less than 100 games!

[mikelink45]

There is no projection system for body failure.  I have had too many operations on too many parts to think that they can just train him to succeed.  I want him to.  It would be just great, but we have seen this story (Pete Reiser) before.  Good luck to him, good luck the new trainer (he can help make a difference) and good luck to those body parts!

[tony&rodney]

Not the same at all, but Paul Molitor had a host of injuries from youth through college and into the first half of his career. He spent at least a half dozen times on the DL (now (IL), sometimes for extended periods of time. Buxton just needs to play baseball and not worry about injuries. Yes, he has had more than his share of time off, but there isn't any reason to believe that he cannot play through a season. 

I did not like Buxton playing with reduced capacity last season. I felt he changed his swing to a slighter more extreme upper cut and was trying to go yard too much. If he is injured, put him on the IL. There will be plenty of options for Byron to DH too. Hopefully he doubles his starts in centerfield this year, Would be good to see him out there in the first inning for 108 games.

[Blyleven2011]

I hope I get my hope and he can stay healthy  ...

I'm sure he works hard in the off season to strengthen his body and hope his body stays strong through the season ...

No guarantee but I'll take what I can get from Buxton , we now have the defensive depth to play his position , so that is a plus ...

[D.C Twins]

Ahh... we've progressed from the '(fill in the blank) is in the best shape of his life'  to 'just imaging if Buxton could stay healthy for a whole year' in the annual stories... 

.... which means opening day is getting closer!!!!!

 

[Dave The Dastardly]

Fragility is not fixable. Nor is it predictable. So parking Buxton on the bench for scheduled "rest days" when he's feeling fine does nothing but lose one more game on the field for him, the team and fans.

Play the guy when he's healthy and rest (repair) him when he's not and hope we can squeeze 100 games out of him between IL stays.

[davidborton]

Quote

Turning the page to 2023, Minnesota is hoping the fluke injuries end. There is no way to predict a knee going into the ground harshly on a slide...

A fluke is an unlikely occurrence. Given that history is the best predictor of the future, I would suggest that many of Buxton's injuries are not so much 'fluke' as symptomatic of a body prone to injury.

Review that "slide" into 2nd where he damaged his knee. He jumped into the bag; an "F" on the slide.

Not trying to be negative. Would love to see him start 145 games. But implying injuries may end is going to lead to disappointment.

[Nine of twelve]

I don't believe any of Buck's injuries were the result of a chronic problem or "fragility". I think it's been mostly bad luck. That doesn't mean nothing can be done about it. As an example, last year's knee injury came as the result of a bad slide. The reason for that is there was going to be a close play at second and he wanted to arrive at the base at the earliest possible time. The reason the play was close is because he didn't hustle out of the box on a bloop hit. Had he done so he would not have incurred that injury.

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

I'm going with the glass half full theory and estimating that Buck will play in 130 games this year and be healthy for the most part.

I think he will channel the positives of Paul Monitor's career path and be healthy for the second half of his career.

[gman]

The hope of spring training is in the air.

[puckstopper1]

As I mentioned in Cody's injury article earlier this week, Buxton is the most critical member of this team that needs to stay healthy.  As shown above, if he is able to accomplish that, he can be a top 5 WAR player given his offensive and defensive abilities.

A healthy Buxton gives the Twins a real shop at the Central.

[TopGunn#22]

I think the Paul Molitor and Pete Reiser comps are excellent.  With Reiser, he wasn't able to overcome it, with Molitor he was, all the way to a HOF career.  I also agree with Dave the Dastardly that sitting Buxton when he's healthy in an attempt to "prevent" injuries is bad strategy.  Play him every day he's healthy.  If he's "injured" then sit him until he and the team are confident he's 100%.  

[ziggy]

I believe last years 'rest days' were days when his knee was too sore and swollen for him to run. I have Buxton pegged for 155 games, 48 homers, 135 RBI's, 30 stolen bases and the league MVP. 

[Doctor Gast]

3 hours ago, ziggy said:

I believe last years 'rest days' were days when his knee was too sore and swollen for him to run. I have Buxton pegged for 155 games, 48 homers, 135 RBI's, 30 stolen bases and the league MVP. 

Love your optimism, ziggy. I'm with you

[DocBauer]

There is an argument to be made that your very best players should be at the top of the lineup to get as many opportunities as possible. But I take SOME exception to this idea, as so many stats talk about the top 3 spots, as I've read previously.

Buxton is not some traditional leadoff hitter with speed and SB ability, along with pop/power, that we expected when drafted. He has become a very dangerous hitter with power and run production who can make a better difference not being a leadoff hitter.

I'm not certain who the #1 hitter is going to be most days. I just know that Correa and Polanco are going to be part of the top of the order. But I don't believe Buxton should ever hit #1. But he should be hitting in the 3rd or 4th spot as a powerful run producer. Forget his SB potential. That's for special occasions when we really need it. Let him keep his legs underneath him to run out doubles and the occasional triple, speed still kills, but let him be the powerful and dangerous bat he can be in the 3 or 4 spot.

He's much more valuable as the #1 CF and run producer he can be in those spots. Just MIGHT keep him more healthy as well.

[PatPfund]

Well... the Twins didn't really sit Buxton "when he was healthy" last year. He injured his knee early, then played hurt until they shut him down and he had knee surgery. To fix the knee he hurt months earlier. It would have been nice if they'd been more honest about it, and frankly it would have been nice if Buxton had gotten the surgery in May, and been recovered for the last 2-3 months of the year. But none of that happened. So, yeah, play him when he is healthy, but he wasn't most of last year.

And... outside of getting hit on the hand by a pitch, most of Byron's injuries don't seem fluky. He runs faster than most humans on Earth, so he puts more stress on his joints, and when he hits the ground or walls diving or sliding, he hits a lot harder than other players.

I hope he can stay healthy, or at least healthier, but I'm glad the Twins came up with a better backup plan than In-Over-His-Head Celestino.

[saviking]

If you believe regression to the mean (I'm not talking about Buxton's mean but the leagues mean) and that Buxton's injury's were bad luck instead of a frail body then it's quite possible he has very few injuries over the coming years, I mean, bad luck only goes so far ,,, Here's to a 130 game season ..

[JD-TWINS]

92 games is most in a season other than 140 games 5 or 6 years ago. Shooting for 145 games is nuts to me. I hope Byron can start 80 games in CF v. RH pitching……….30 games at DH v. LH pitching………20 games at DH v.RH pitching.

Taylor starts in CF against LH pitching…..30 games…Gordon starts 50 games in CF against RH pitching.

[mnfireman]

17 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

92 games is most in a season other than 140 games 5 or 6 years ago. Shooting for 145 games is nuts to me. I hope Byron can start 80 games in CF v. RH pitching……….30 games at DH v. LH pitching………20 games at DH v.RH pitching.

Taylor starts in CF against LH pitching…..30 games…Gordon starts 50 games in CF against RH pitching.

Before 2022 Buxton started 0 games at DH, he doesn't improve the line-up from there. If Buxton is going to play 130 or more games, those games need to be in CF. Taylor will give value with spot starts or IL fill-in if/when Buxton (or Kepler/Gallo/Larnach) gets hurt and being able to enter as a defensive replacement late in games to give Buxton (or Kepler/Gallo/Larnach) a few innings off without hurting the teams defense. 

And if Gordon gets 50 starts in CF this team is in big trouble and out of contention early due to injuries and/or ineffectiveness.

[jkcarew]

I’m only interested in how many games he plays in center. With Buxton, the great SLG comes with a very low OBP…and he’s not going to be steeling bases in numbers anymore, either…irregardless of the larger bases. The result is a good run producer, but not great or unique in that regard. Also, keep in mind that, with this roster, DH’ing Buxton agains left-handed pitching probably forces an additional left-handed OF bat into the the lineup. Meanwhile, if you DH him against right-handed pitching, his run producing ability suffers further…(career 293 OBP against righties…299 last year). So, Buxton as a DH…especially with this roster…does nothing for me, and I don’t think it will do much of anything for the Twins in 2023, either.

Strange but true…

Buxton and Gallo are almost exactly the same age and have almost exactly the same career OPS+.

(Gallo is 29 days older than Buxton, will a career OPS+ of 109, vs Buxton’s 108; Gallo has appeared in 167 more games than Buxton.)

[joefish]

IF we have the best health for every player on our roster, sustained, record-setting GOOD health, we could be a very fun team to watch.

[Oldtimer]

15 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

92 games is most in a season other than 140 games 5 or 6 years ago. Shooting for 145 games is nuts to me. I hope Byron can start 80 games in CF v. RH pitching……….30 games at DH v. LH pitching………20 games at DH v.RH pitching.

Taylor starts in CF against LH pitching…..30 games…Gordon starts 50 games in CF against RH pitching.

Agree... History will repeat itself. Even 80 games is a reach for me.

[JD-TWINS]

15 hours ago, mnfireman said:

Before 2022 Buxton started 0 games at DH, he doesn't improve the line-up from there. If Buxton is going to play 130 or more games, those games need to be in CF. Taylor will give value with spot starts or IL fill-in if/when Buxton (or Kepler/Gallo/Larnach) gets hurt and being able to enter as a defensive replacement late in games to give Buxton (or Kepler/Gallo/Larnach) a few innings off without hurting the teams defense. 

And if Gordon gets 50 starts in CF this team is in big trouble and out of contention early due to injuries and/or ineffectiveness.

If Buxton plays 95 games in CF v. 80 games in CF & 50 at DH……how is there no value in him being in our line-up 35 more starts?

Taylor - Farmer - Jeffers will start v. every LH starter we face.

Gordon’s offense v. RH pitching is on par or better than Buxton’s, other than in HR’s. He started 33 games in CF in ‘22. With Taylor being weak v. RH pitching & Buxton needing to be careful with health, seems Gordon is the right fit in CF. 

Gordon between Gallo & Kepler is just fine defensively.

.272 BA in 405 AB’s & 28 doubles & 9 HR in his first real opportunity in SHOW. Started 98 games in OF & it was his first year ever playing OF. Don’t see an issue.

[JD-TWINS]

14 hours ago, jkcarew said:

I’m only interested in how many games he plays in center. With Buxton, the great SLG comes with a very low OBP…and he’s not going to be steeling bases in numbers anymore, either…irregardless of the larger bases. The result is a good run producer, but not great or unique in that regard. Also, keep in mind that, with this roster, DH’ing Buxton agains left-handed pitching probably forces an additional left-handed OF bat into the the lineup. Meanwhile, if you DH him against right-handed pitching, his run producing ability suffers further…(career 293 OBP against righties…299 last year). So, Buxton as a DH…especially with this roster…does nothing for me, and I don’t think it will do much of anything for the Twins in 2023, either.

Strange but true…

Buxton and Gallo are almost exactly the same age and have almost exactly the same career OPS+.

(Gallo is 29 days older than Buxton, will a career OPS+ of 109, vs Buxton’s 108; Gallo has appeared in 167 more games than Buxton.)

Line-up v. LH pitching…..roughly 30 games:

Taylor CF - Buxton DH - Correa SS - Miranda 1B - Farmer 3B - Polanco 2B - Jeffers C - Larnach LF - Kepler RF

Bench: Vázquez - Kirilof - Gordon - Gallo……Vázquez is only other RH hitting option & needs to sit with Jeffers in Line-up. No issue with Buxton in the DH spot!

V. RH pitching, I think Buxton DH’s 20 games against historically favorable guys. 80 starts in CF.

Frequent line-up v. RH pitching:

Gordon CF - Kirilof 1B - Correa SS - Larnach DH - Gallo LF - Polanco 2B - Vázquez C - Kepler RF - Miranda 3B

 

[jkcarew]

7 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Line-up v. LH pitching…..roughly 30 games:

Taylor CF - Buxton DH - Correa SS - Miranda 1B - Farmer 3B - Polanco 2B - Jeffers C - Larnach LF - Kepler RF

Bench: Vázquez - Kirilof - Gordon - Gallo……Vázquez is only other RH hitting option & needs to sit with Jeffers in Line-up. No issue with Buxton in the DH spot!

V. RH pitching, I think Buxton DH’s 20 games against historically favorable guys. 80 starts in CF.

Frequent line-up v. RH pitching:

Gordon CF - Kirilof 1B - Correa SS - Larnach DH - Gallo LF - Polanco 2B - Vázquez C - Kepler RF - Miranda 3B

 

No thank you to both Larnach and Kepler in the lineup against lefties.

[tony&rodney]

Sounds like quite a few people are using too many numbers and/or reverse psychology to tie down our guy Byron to another year of pain when 2023 is the year Dr. Buxton keeps himself in prime form throughout the season. Look for Buck to earn some of those major incentives in his contract with his performance this summer.

[mnfireman]

If Buxton is healthy enough to play, he is in CF. If somebody else is starting in CF this team is in trouble.