Sticking With Starters

[Cody Pirkl]

News has started to trickle in from Spring Training as we start to learn more about the Twins plans for players in 2023. One bit of news that’s dropped is particularly interesting regarding their depth of young pitchers.

Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

For once, the Twins have some depth to their pitching staff with a mix of holdovers and younger arms in both the rotation and the bullpen. After a 2022 in which they turned Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax from starters to impact relievers, many have become interested in what struggling starting pitching prospect could be the next to follow that path. There are plenty of candidates to be fair. For now however, it doesn’t sound as though we’ll see those plans play out immediately.

Such a small piece of news but so much to draw from it. Assuming health, Bailey Ober appears to be headed for Triple-A to begin 2023 due to the MLB rotation depth. For once, however, the Triple-A rotation will be tons of fun with names such as Louie Varland, Simeon Woods Richardson , and Jordan Balazovic behind him. It’s going to be a treat to attend CHS Field this summer to see some legitimate young arms throwing every day. With only limited spots in the Saints rotation, the Twins immediate plans to keep everyone starting is interesting.

Not being too quick to transition starters into the bullpen is good practice. Especially considering the health questions in the Twins rotation, it’s good to make sure there are as many arms as possible to step in if things go south. For now, it appears the last spot in St. Paul is a three-way battle with names such as Ronny Henriquez, Cole Sands, and Josh Winder. With a few injuries this spring, those three options for the #5 spot in St. Paul could all find themselves starting games consistently. It may quickly become an issue that works itself out.

It’s also just much easier to transition a pitcher from a starter to a reliever in a hurry than it is vice versa If the Twins health holds through the spring and they reconsider a few of their young arms, they could switch them over in no time as they did with Sands and Henriquez down the stretch in 2022. It may not have them as ready to relieve as they would be had they been preparing from Day 1, but some guys are able to flip the switch very quickly. Not committing young arms to those spots also opens up a few more possibilities.

The Twins may not have as much Opening Day bullpen depth with all of these young arms remaining starters, but they can go and get external depth to build up even more. As of February 15, players such as Royce Lewis and Chris Paddack can all be put on the 60-Day IL, opening 40-man spots. It’ll be interesting to see how the Twins choose to fill these spots, but it’s probably safe to bet on one addition to the bullpen at the very least.

The reliever market has been nearly bare for some time now, but a few fits still exist. They’ve already been linked to Chaska native Brad Hand, who’s far from the bullpen ace he once was but has continued to limit hard contact. Several other arms remain that they could take fliers on such as Will Smith or Trevor Rosenthal. They’re also due for their yearly waiver claim that makes the Opening Day roster. If they have any moves left to make, it’s easy to see at least one of them being a reliever because of the position-player logjam, and the Twins have at least two 40-man spots to fill if they feel inclined to make an addition.

It also may be too early to rule out a trade. It’s been reported that the Twins are likely to hold onto Max Kepler, but this could easily be posturing on the Twins part. The left-handed hitting outfield depth is to a point where it can be argued that it doesn’t make sense. They aren’t trading recently-signed Joey Gallo, and Trevor Larnach’s value is likely at a low point despite a hope that he can still become an impact hitter to pair with the plus defense that graded out in 2022. This still leaves Kepler as the likeliest player shipped out if a trade is made. As a "two-ish" win player who gets most of his value from defense at this point, he’s certainly a candidate to be sent out in a trade involving a reliever.

The Twins are left with a non-obvious answer for the next man up if one of the current MLB bullpen arms misses time. The Triple-A bullpen likely won’t have a young, obvious option to get the call if needed early in the season, although any acquisitions would likely push Jovani Moran into that spot once again (to this writer’s exhaustion). It’s likely that as the year goes on, we start to see some of these pitchers transition into the bullpen depending on the Twins MLB roster needs and how the young arms perform in the rotation.

Sands is noted as the closest one to making this switch after struggling all-around last season. Henriquez got hit far too hard as a Triple-A starter in 2022. Winder’s shoulder appears to be a chronic issue at this point. If any of these issues persist, look for the Twins to pivot quickly off of their preseason plans to keep these arms in the rotation. By season’s end, we’ll likely be seeing a few of them making appearances out of the bullpen.

View full article

[Nashvilletwin]

Good strategy with our next 4-5 starter candidates - keep them as starters as it’s highly likely we will need them all sometime this year (possibly often) and beyond for sure.

The Saints’ lineup pretty much from top to bottom could be a lot of fun to watch this year. 

[DJL44]

If everyone is healthy there isn't really enough room for everyone. Balazovic and Henriquez would end up back in Double-A to begin the season.

[JD-TWINS]

I like Balazovic as this year’s Duran. Good stuff!! If we can get him working in short situations in St. Paul for 2 months he could be the guy in 6th or 7th……2-3 times per week. Worth considering……Sands has got to be the gimmick reliever, not a starter …….,,,Winder’s shoulder issues seem to make relief seem like the only way to stay healthy. With these 3 additional pieces in relief roles One or Two gotta be effective!

[old nurse]

Maybe this is the year that they are not using starter 8-13 due to ineffectiveness or attitude. No Lynn, Shoemaker,Happ Buddy or Archer types on the roster.  

[jmlease1]

I probably would start the transition on Sands now; if no starter gets dinged during camp the AAA rotation is already full with Winder, Varland, Woods Richardson, Henriquez, Balazovic, and Sanchez...where is Sands going to get a start?

I think it's fair to not move Winder yet, but Sands really looks like a reliever to me if he's going to make it.

[Otaknam]

The starting staff is definitely an upgrade from what we’ve seen for years, with several AAA starters waiting for their chance once someone gets injured. With some of the starters in their final contract it’s great to have some young depth. Hopefully a couple of the young guys show they can be effective starters at the big league level and move into the rotation next year. But still no apparent ace on the staff, so that’s an issue for any serious playoff run. Maybe someone will emerge as at least a number two. Hope springs eternal in spring training!

[mikelink45]

I am not completely with this strategy.  It worked for Johann Santana to transition to BP and then the rotation.  I have seen this over the years and it is not a bad strategy.  I prefer to see young arms over Megill, Pagan, and Lopez in the pen. 

[Ricky Vaughn]

I still think the Twins go with a 6 man rotation, so Ober stays as the sixth man. We started with six last year and we still have a bunch of fragile arms in the rotation.

[Blyleven2011]

I agree with your article Cody,  although I wouldn't by into any stock at what the FO says ...

Strong link , starting pitchers ...

Weak link , bullpen ...

We need long relief to help not wear down the good arms in the bullpen inning by inning ...

Keep a starter potential for long relief on a blowout game early , or piggyback  2 pitchers , 1 going 5 and the other going 4 innings ...

Definitely would be nice to try long relief once again ...

Best players come north ...

One thing I'm glad of is the FO didn't go dumpster diving this off season  but I'm sure there will be some as teams cut players during spring training  ...

[saviking]

Caught between our five starters and Ober, Varland, and Paddock's return later this year I think we should be looking at Winder or possibly Balazovic as relievers mid way through the season.

[jmlease1]

9 minutes ago, Ricky Vaughn said:

I still think the Twins go with a 6 man rotation, so Ober stays as the sixth man. We started with six last year and we still have a bunch of fragile arms in the rotation.

who are you dropping from the bullpen? because that's where they have to take a player off if they keep 6 starters. The rule is in place this year: max 13 pitchers. They clearly like having 8 guys in the bullpen, and despite the fondest wishes from the fanbase, they're sticking with Pagan. So who goes? Megill? Moran?

[Ricky Vaughn]

Megill still has options left. Send him him down and when one of the starters goes down (odds are it won't take long)  bring him back up. I know Ober didn't pitch much last year but he was effective when he did.

[MTV]

45 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

who are you dropping from the bullpen? because that's where they have to take a player off if they keep 6 starters. The rule is in place this year: max 13 pitchers. They clearly like having 8 guys in the bullpen, and despite the fondest wishes from the fanbase, they're sticking with Pagan. So who goes? Megill? Moran?

Probably Megill, he got shelled in the second half of the year and having another lefty in the pen would be better, plus I trust Moran more. I’d rather have Ober as a 6th Starter or at least throw 2-3 quality innings in the pen over a struggling Megill, although I think Megill has potential

[MTV]

I think the twins will eventually move some of these guys to relievers, so long as we don’t have another Balazovic-incident happen to any of the starters at AAA. If SWR, Varland, Winder and Balazovic all prove they are capable starters then pitchers like Sands and Henriquez could start thriving in the pen, where they look better off in. Cole Sands looks like another Tyler Duffey while Henriquez looks like a serious long-reliever or potential high-end piece.

[Dman]

2 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

The Saints’ lineup pretty much from top to bottom could be a lot of fun to watch this year. 

Totally agree.  10 or one third of the Twins top 30 prospects should be in St Paul if you include Martin there.  Granted Lewis won't be there to start and won't be there for long but he likely would be listed there.  Outside of Lewis, Martin, Wallner, Julien and Hellman there would still be Celestino, Williams and Prato who are pretty good at the plate and in the field as well.

AAA is loaded with players that could be called up at anytime. Almost an MLB team of their own.

[jjotto]

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

who are you dropping from the bullpen? because that's where they have to take a player off if they keep 6 starters. The rule is in place this year: max 13 pitchers. They clearly like having 8 guys in the bullpen, and despite the fondest wishes from the fanbase, they're sticking with Pagan. So who goes? Megill? Moran?

Rotation: Gray, P. Lopez, Mahle, Ryan, Maeda; 6th SP Ober

Relief: J. Lopez, Duran, Thielbar, Coulombe, Pagan; ?Moran, ?Megill (7)

Sure seems like room to add a reliever from outside if Ober goes to St. Paul. Who in the organization would the Brain Trust prefer over Megill, Moran, Coulombe, or Pagan?

(All subject to health status)

 

 

[dxpavelka]

Still say it' highly likely that the best starter in the organization is Duran.  He's great in the pen but there will always be a lingering bit of "what if?"  Also, not sure about all the angst about the lack of right handed hitting corner outfielders.  Miranda, Polanco, Correa, Buxton and both catchers hit from the starboard side.  If Buxton's not in the lineup, Taylor does too.  Considering there tends to be more right handed big league pitching than left handed, I'd think we've got a pretty solid mix.  I'd actually be more concerned about the lack of left handed pitching than about the over abundance of left handed hitting.  Just sayin

[Rosterman]

Man, there are a helluva a lot of names on the St. Paul roster, and msot are "non-Twins" from outside the organization. Can they find space for them all? 

Would one start Balazovic at Wichita for now?

I would give Henriquez a strong stab at being long relief with the major league club in spring training. 

I'm not sure what longterm role I would like to see Sands and Winder play, but getting them into multiple inning situations could only help their stock.

Jose de Leon, Dereck Rodriguez, Andrew Sanchez and Randy Dobnak are also starters at St. Paul. Patrick Murphy was a starter. Brock Stewart and Sean Nolin could move backwards in the system.

I imagine Kody Funderburk and Blayne Enlow will start at AA Wichita, as will Brent Headrick. Most of the "prospects" there have been traded away.

 

 

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

I prefer to see young arms over Megill, Pagan, and Lopez in the pen. 

They paid a lot for Lopez. He's going to get as many chances as Colome.

[mikelink45]

2 hours ago, Ricky Vaughn said:

I still think the Twins go with a 6 man rotation, so Ober stays as the sixth man. We started with six last year and we still have a bunch of fragile arms in the rotation.

On Gleeman and the Geek they said that the message is that they are not going to do that.  I think they should. 

[FlyingFinn]

3 hours ago, jjotto said:

Relief: J. Lopez, Duran, Thielbar, Coulombe, Pagan; ?Moran, ?Megill (7)

No Jax and no Alcala. I don't think it is very likely that we release both of them.

[FlyingFinn]

3 hours ago, Rosterman said:

Man, there are a helluva a lot of names on the St. Paul roster

17 pitchers and that's not counting Woods-Richardson, Varland and Ober. Guess that's why they have 7 catchers on the roster!

[jjotto]

21 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

No Jax and no Alcala. I don't think it is very likely that we release both of them.

Yes. Omitted (my mistake) Jax and Alcala, who should be included. So if Ober goes to St Paul, that leaves a spot for Moran or Megill, or a to-be-acquired. Does that seem most likely?

[DocBauer]

I always believe you wait as long as possible to move someone to the pen. I think that's an obvious perspective to have. A 3rd pitch suddenly develops, control suddenly gets better with mechanical adjustments, or a light suddenly comes on in regard to "pitching" and it proves you were right to wait. Besides, while there is definitely an adjustment mentally in moving to the pen, there is also a change in physical preparation as well. But realistically, any milb SP could be brought up at any time and asked to enter the beginning of an inning and just do the best you can for as long as you can. But getting stretched back out is a different situation. 

But sometimes it's just obvious someone is destined to be a reliever. And Jax falls in to that category and the results were excellent, with hope of being even better with experience. Sands had a really nice 2021 at AA before having a disappointing 2022 at AAA and with the Twins. Does that mean he CAN'T still "find himself" as a SP? Not at all. But if you watched him last year, you saw some bad AB's, some wildness, and then you saw him finish an inning strong, or have a great 2nd inning after a poor one. But what I believe I saw was an OK fastball and a potentially excellent breaking stuff. It's interesting to me that he appears to be the 1st guy mentioned as making the transition as that's what I also feel after watching him in 2022. His FB should play up in shorter stints and again, his breaking stuff looks potentially nasty.

Henriquez didn't have a very good AAA season, but was better later in the year and looked pretty interesting in his late promotion to the Twins pen to finish. But I believe he's still only 22yo, has velocity and some potentially really nice secondary stuff. Still so young, and with potential, I agree with keeping him as a starter for now. Forgetting further development, does his physical stature indicate he's going to have stamina to maintain his stuff beyond 4-5+ IP? I think he's got everything available to be great for 1-2 innings as a bullpen piece, and I believe that's where he ends up. But more IP RIGHT NOW as a rotation piece allows more time to harness his stuff. So I can get waiting on him a little longer.

I'm confused on Winder. Does he really have a shoulder issue? Like so many, if he had a normal offseason last year, and tutelage of coaches and trainers to more properly prepare, would his shoulder issue have been eliminated? He made the roster last year on merit. And he was pretty solid in his role to begin the season, though his K numbers were down, until his shoulder issues from 2021 returned again. Is this chronic? Or did he suffer from the odd and abbreviated offseason/ST affect him? He's been a pretty highly regarded SP prospect previously, so I don't know that I'd be anxious to convert him just yet either.

All that being said, the one thing the pen has largely lacked the past few years is someone who can throw some solid middle innings. The Twins WANT their SP to throw at least 5, if not 6, innings every game. And there are no Happ, Shoemaker, Bundy, or Archer types to necessarily drain the pen in 2023. But there will be some days where someone just doesn't have it, and someone will be needed to fill some innings. Can Pagan really be considered as a viable 2-3 inning guy? That seems to be his role and let's just say I have serious doubts. So while the Twins state they don't have intentions to move anyone to the pen at this time, I can see a necessary role for someone to fill. Could that be one of the guys mentioned, OR, MAYBE, a surprise 40 man addition like a non roster invite?

Absolutely agree St Paul looks loaded pitching wise. They are looking at Balazovic, Varland, SWR, Winder, Henriquez, Sands, and Dobnak as prospects and young arms before we even consider the various non roster signings, who are probably destined for the Saints pen, which is probably their best option to reach MLB again. Right now, there's not enough room in the rotation for all the arms in play to fill. And that's NOT a bad problem to have. 

[Nine of twelve]

The Twins' schedule does not have as many off days in April as is typical. I could accept a 6-man rotation until the end of the month at the very latest, but after that it should go down to 5.

[Melissa]

9 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

I agree with your article Cody,  although I wouldn't by into any stock at what the FO says ...

Strong link , starting pitchers ...

Weak link , bullpen ...

We need long relief to help not wear down the good arms in the bullpen inning by inning ...

Keep a starter potential for long relief on a blowout game early , or piggyback  2 pitchers , 1 going 5 and the other going 4 innings ...

Definitely would be nice to try long relief once again ...

Do's tweet quotes Falvey as saying "there aren't any starters converting to short relief this spring (like Jax did this time last year)."

The man speaks very precisely. I think he's definitely left open the scenario Blyleven2011 (hi Bert!) wants.

[tony&rodney]

No worries about this idea. The Twins built a strong rotation with youth to fill as necessary. The Players know that each guy gets an opportunity and they will prepare for their "one shot". Spring Training is a time for those who are secure in their positions to get ready for Day 1. Those who are not sure for a roster position can open eyes and make an impression. One of those guys should get a trip to Kansas City. The others will be right there on the frontal lobe of Falvey/Baldelli to watch as they prove their case in St. Paul or Wichita. Stuff happens.

[jmlease1]

21 hours ago, jjotto said:

Rotation: Gray, P. Lopez, Mahle, Ryan, Maeda; 6th SP Ober

Relief: J. Lopez, Duran, Thielbar, Coulombe, Pagan; ?Moran, ?Megill (7)

Sure seems like room to add a reliever from outside if Ober goes to St. Paul. Who in the organization would the Brain Trust prefer over Megill, Moran, Coulombe, or Pagan?

(All subject to health status)

 

 

Jax is guaranteed a spot (as you noted elsewhere), Alcala is likely if he's healthy/effective in spring training (if he's not effective they might try to slip him on the IL). Coulombe isn't on the 40-man, so he's unlikely to be on the squad; Moran is a more likely LHP option.

They seem to like Megill, so I'd say he has an inside shot at that last spot, but that's why Ober seems unlikely to make the team: they're not keeping 6 starters. If they did, I'm sure Megill would be the most likely one to get dropped, but while keeping 6 starters might keep the best 13 pitchers on the squad, there's no real need for a 6th starter with this squad. there's no one that looks like they'll need extra days off between starts, is there?

[ashbury]

3 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

Jax is guaranteed a spot (as you noted elsewhere), Alcala is likely if he's healthy/effective in spring training (if he's not effective they might try to slip him on the IL). Coulombe isn't on the 40-man, so he's unlikely to be on the squad; Moran is a more likely LHP option.

They seem to like Megill, so I'd say he has an inside shot at that last spot, but that's why Ober seems unlikely to make the team: they're not keeping 6 starters. If they did, I'm sure Megill would be the most likely one to get dropped, but while keeping 6 starters might keep the best 13 pitchers on the squad, there's no real need for a 6th starter with this squad. there's no one that looks like they'll need extra days off between starts, is there?

I basically agree.  The problem with a 6-man rotation to start the season is that it's predicated on the idea that nobody's really ready and you need to ease them all into the season.   But that means 4- or 5-inning starts for a week or two, and that in turn means you need to rely more on your bullpen and not less, and that in turn means you'd rather not have to operate with a 7-man bullpen when you could have 8. Plus why would the 7 relievers be in mid-season form already and geared up to pitching on consecutive days when needed at times?  Now, if your 6-man rotation allows them to roar out of the gate throwing 6 or 7 innings apiece, it'd be a different story.

Here's a crazier idea?  Ober's your Game 2 starter in Kansas City, after the day off following Opening Day (let's say that is Sonny Gray).  Let Ober do his 4 or 5 innings, then send him down to St Paul and bring up that 8th bullpen arm ASAP.  You go through the rest of the rotation against the Royals and then Marlins, and our graybeard Gray can now do the Home Opener too, having had a full week's rest. Then there's that additional off-day (cold-weather teams seem to build that into their early schedules), and the other 4 starters get their 6 days of rest. I don't think you can bring Ober right back up, according to league rules, so you can't play musical chairs with him at will.  So maybe someone has to do a spot-start, or maybe the rotation is in good shape by now and are into their rhythm.  Weather postponements and injuries are going to throw any of this planning off, by this point anyway, so just go with a plan to begin with and then expect to adjust and improvise.