Twins Daily 2023 Top Prospects: #3 Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF

[Nick Nelson]

You can make a case that Emmanuel Rodriguez was THE single most meteoric player in all of the minors last year. He shined bright and burnt out quickly, succumbing to a knee injury. 

Now, he's back and ready to light the minors aflame once again.

Age: 19 (DOB: 2/28/2003)
2022 Stats: (A): 199 PA, .272/.493/.552, 9 HR, 25 RBI
ETA: 2025
2022 Ranking: 16

National Top 100 Rankings
BA: 46 | MLB: 88 | ATH: 48 | BP: 42

 

What's To Like

It's hard to properly explain just how special and stunning Emmanuel Rodriguez's performance was last year in the Florida State League. First, I'll try to set the stage a little bit.

Rodriguez had just turned 19 before the start of the season, and had played a total of 37 professional games, all in 2021 at the rookie-level Florida Complex League. He had played pretty well there, showing a lot of power (.524 SLG) along with a lot of swing-and-miss (36% K-rate, .214 AVG).

He was embarking upon his first full-season campaign in the Florida State League, always known for its pitcher-friendly conditions. (In 2022, FSL hitters posted a .687 OPS overall.) E-Rod was younger than the league's average by two years. He was facing more experienced, more advanced competition. 

Here's what he did, while playing a very solid center field:

In 199 plate appearances, he hit five doubles, three triples, and nine homers with 11 steals, 52 strikeouts, and 57 walks. That last part is worth repeating: 52 K, 57 BB. He cut his problematic K-rate down to an acceptable range while also drawing walks at a truly staggering frequency. Fifty-seven walks (just one "intentional") in 199 plate appearances equates to a 28.6% BB rate. It's a figure so astronomically high it almost defies belief. Juan Soto led the majors at 20.3% last year.

The freakish rate of free passes indicates that Rodriguez has quickly developed both an incredibly keen eye, and a reputation among pitchers as a feared slugger to avoid. He lived up to the latter billing when he got something to hit, slugging .552, and rode all those walks to a .493 on-base percentage. The lefty swinger had a .522 OBP against left-handed pitchers.

Among players with 100+ PA in the FSL, no one was within 80 points of OPS to the teenaged CF Rodriguez, other than a 24-year-old 1B/DH named Jacob Gonzalez.

Rodriguez's breakout season was cut dramatically short by a knee meniscus injury suffered in June, but evaluators have seen enough in the small sample to elevate him into the elite tier of prospects. All four nationals outlets above have the outfielder in their top 100, and three have him in their top 50. 

Baseball America called him "one of the strongest up-arrow candidates" on their list. "He might be a top-10 prospect in baseball by midseason if what we saw last spring holds up," observed The Athletic's Keith Law. 

It's not hard to see where the hype is coming from. And while you couldn't exactly say he came out of nowhere -- the Dominican scored a $2.75 million bonus at age 16 as one of the top talents in the 2019 international class -- he's definitely going somewhere.

What's Left to Work On
There is not a single thing you can quibble with in Rodriguez's brief flash of brilliance last year. Complete all-around dominance. But, that's all it was: a brief flash. Turning 20 later this month, he's got a very sparse track record – just 84 pro games – and a long road ahead to the major leagues.

There are many possible paths forward for the high-upside, high-variance talent. The direction he'll try to steer clear of goes something like this: As he moves up and faces better pitchers (who can better command the strike zone), Rodriguez's patience gives way to passiveness and his K-rate climbs, while the walk rate drops precipitously. Meanwhile, he loses a step after the surgery and keeps adding bulk as he ages into his 20s, forcing a move to a corner outfield spot and raising the bar for his offensive impact.

Even in this scenario, Rodriguez can still pan out as a pretty valuable player, because his power tool is outstanding and there's nothing wrong with a classic slugging right fielder who can run and throw. 

But if Rodriguez can come back healthy at High-A and keep remotely intact the robust skill set we saw on display over two spectacular months in Fort Myers ... he'll likely be viewed among the top prospects in all of baseball by this time next year, following the trajectory of a future MLB superstar.

What's Next
Prospect rankings tend to be all over the place, but there's a stark level of consensus surrounding Rodriguez and his current estimation from the evaluation community. While there was tremendous dissent regarding the top two spots on the list this year (as we'll soon explore), there was none about who should rank #3: all 10 people who voted on Twins Daily's list had Rodriguez here. 

Even as you zoom out to the national 100 prospect rankings, the level of consensus is pretty stunning for a player who was on none of these lists a year ago. Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus and The Athletic all have E-Rod ranked between 42nd and 48th overall.

We're all seeing the same thing: a highly touted international talent who showed everything you could possibly want to see during an all-too-brief breakthrough in 2022. Now he needs to rebound from the injury, and put together a full season of work. From there, the sky is the limit.

He might not necessarily be the best prospect in the Twins system, but Rodriguez is almost certainly the most exciting, with a ceiling that rivals any promising young player who's ever graced these rankings.

Feel free to discuss E-Rod as a prospect and ask as many questions as you like in the COMMENTS below.

 

Previous Installments

Honorable Mention
Prospects 21-30
Prospects 16-20
Prospects 11-15
Prospect #10: Austin Martin, SS
Prospect #9: Louie Varland, RHP
Prospect #8: Jose Salas, INF
Prospect #7: Connor Prielipp, LHP
Prospect #6: Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP
Prospect #5: Edouard Julien, 2B
Prospect #4: Marco Raya, RHP
Prospect #3: Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF
Prospect #2: Coming tomorrow!

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[Doctor Gast]

Had high hopes for E Rod when we got him and encouraged by '21 results but his '22 was amazing. Became deflated when he got injured, he could've sky rocketed through the minors with great #s. But he's still young & by his greatly improved plate discipline, it seems that he adjusts very quickly. It's very hard to qualify a prospect to be rank so high with so little sample size but IMO E Rod warrants it. 

[mikelink45]

I would love to see him soar, but why do good Twins stories always end with an injury.

Get well quick and rush up to the majors.  Potentially this is Soto, Griffey kind of talent which means a quick rise to the majors if more injuries don't derail him.  

I might put him at number one on this list. 

[Trov]

His walk rate is what everyone should be super excited about.  At his age, to be willing to walk that much tells me a few things.  One, he is not chasing many pitches overall, meaning he is not trying to do too much and at times gets himself out.  Even if you do not strike out, chasing pitches will lead to bad at bats generally.  It also shows me he has a plan of attack, and goes with that plan.  Yes, he is facing much worse pitching at that level, breaking balls will not be as good, and more pitchers will rely on fastballs more.  

However, rarely will a guy who walks that much will suddenly lose that eye.  I believe that if he can stay healthy we will see him up to AA this year, and knocking on the door in September or looking to break with team next year.  If he can show near the same hitting ability with eye at plate at each level, do not be surprised if gets a late season call up. 

I know it was just a flash, but he has Juan Soto type to him.  Decent power, but with elite eye at plate.  I am not saying he will be Soto level, but I am super high on him.  

[Dman]

Emmanual Rodriguez was quite the pleasant surprise last year.  I mean you could see it coming to some degree as he had an .870 OPS in the FCL but that came with a hefty 37% K rate.  The walk rate was good (15%) as well but at that time it looked like there might be a massive hole in his swing/contact issues.  It wasn't completely surprising given he was just 18 years old having skipped the DSL due to Covid and starting in the FCL.  He still put his name on the prospect map with those numbers but it usually takes a while to fix contact issues and sometimes they never get fixed (i.e. Keoni Cavaco). 

How did he get so good so fast?  He dropped his K rate to 26% and increased his walk rate to 29%.  So he took more walks than he struck out and that raised his OnBase percentage and IMO increased his BABIP because he waited for good pitches to hit and he made more contact.  Interestingly his slugging wasn't all that different from the year before.  His plate discipline turned him from a flawed batter to an elite batter.

There is a long way to go with tougher changeups and curves to face but he is far ahead of players his age at this point.  If he continues to rake at High A and makes AA this year he could have super star potential as I believe he has an elite hard hit rate right now and if he controls the zone and doesn't get himself out he is going to be tough for pitchers to get out.  I see lot's more walks in this man's future.

Law had him number 1 in his Twins top 30 list and I think he is worthy but would like to see one more elite season out of him before going there.  Emmanual Rodriguez could be the difference making bat the Twins have been looking for since Justin Morneua.

[Otaknam]

E Rod is a very intriguing prospect from everything I read. Let’s just hope the Twin FO doesn’t package him or any of the other top ten prospects like Lee for another number three starter, as is their MO. 

[tony&rodney]

The off the charts walk rate, a big improvement in his K rate, and his powerful quick swing put Emmanuel on the fast track. He, like all, must show those skills at the next levels now. The very best rise through the minor leagues quickly. E. Rodriguez will have everyone's attention this summer, especially opposing pitchers. 

I was curious whether the A, A+, and AA leagues had any plans to use the automated strike zone. 

[tony&rodney]

9 minutes ago, Otaknam said:

Let’s just hope the Twin FO doesn’t package him or any of the other top ten prospects like Lee for another number three starter, as is their MO. 

The Twins are not listening to any offers for any player with Emmanuel going the other way; don't worry. Also, the only player of any note that has been traded was Cade Povich, which was a fair deal. Steer, CES, and others may have major league careers but they were buried behind much better players in the Twins system. Falvey has been pretty cautious in trades thus far.

[arby58]

17 minutes ago, Otaknam said:

E Rod is a very intriguing prospect from everything I read. Let’s just hope the Twin FO doesn’t package him or any of the other top ten prospects like Lee for another number three starter, as is their MO. 

Not a chance - he is untouchable. Comparisons with Mike Trout if he tears up high-A (Trout played at Cedar Rapids at 18) wouldn't be out of place.

[Melissa]

Oh, my! I hope to see him in the high minors this year! Worth a trip to Cedar Rapids, or even better a 5- mile trip to watch the Saints!

[RJA]

This is the only kid in the system with true superstar potential, and the first since Buxton I would say (some would add Lewis but I don't think he showed as much early as this kid). I can't wait to see how he progresses.  He is the number one minor league player I will be following this summer.  Should be fun.

[Nashvilletwin]

Anchored by Correa, Buxton, Vasquez, Ryan and Duran, a new golden age of Twins baseball could be fast approaching - if we can just keep all of our young talent (those still in the minors and those early in their majors careers) healthy and on trajectory.

Sure we want to win in ‘23 - the FO has bet big that the theoretical starting rotation will lead the way.  But if all Rocco and his staff really accomplished in this season was to ensure tangible, sustainable development into true above average or star major leaguers from the young talent they will/should coach this year (Miranda, Kiriloff, Larnach, Gordon, Jeffers, Lewis, Lee, Julien, Martin, Wallner, Ryan, Ober, Winder, SWR, Varland, Duran, Jax, Moran, and Alcala), we all should be pleased as punch.

Can you just imagine this core with Rodriguez, Raya, Prielipp, Canterino, Salas, and Miller ready to join the mix in ‘25? Can you imagine the possibilities if our coaching staff actually turned out to be way above average at keeping player development going after reaching the majors?  Things could get really interesting, fun and exciting around Twins Land pretty darn soon. I hope Rocco and his staff are up to their part of the plan. 

[twinsfan02]

I Don't understand the hype around this guy. He only hit for a .272 average which is not that great for a so called top prospect in the low minors. He also only had 9 home runs which is not that impressive and before you say "small sample size" 200 ABs is quite a few.

[Ricky Vaughn]

Going to get to Cedar Rapids early this year before he is gone.

[DJL44]

12 minutes ago, twinsfan02 said:

I Don't understand the hype around this guy. He only hit for a .272 average which is not that great for a so called top prospect in the low minors. He also only had 9 home runs which is not that impressive and before you say "small sample size" 200 ABs is quite a few.

.272 is a fantastic batting average if you pair it with an isolated slugging of .280 and a great OBP. 17 XBH out of 37 hits

[jishfish]

19 minutes ago, twinsfan02 said:

I Don't understand the hype around this guy. He only hit for a .272 average which is not that great for a so called top prospect in the low minors. He also only had 9 home runs which is not that impressive and before you say "small sample size" 200 ABs is quite a few.

I mean in a pitcher-friendly league where only 18 players had double digit home runs over the full season, 9 home runs is still pretty impressive, especially when a majority of the players with more home runs had 150+ more plate appearances. Also, batting average is not the stat I would use to make an argument against this guy when he's walking at a 28% clip. First of all, .272 is still a top 15 batting average in the FSL, plus his OBP was like 80 points higher than any other player.

[chpettit19]

31 minutes ago, twinsfan02 said:

I Don't understand the hype around this guy. He only hit for a .272 average which is not that great for a so called top prospect in the low minors. He also only had 9 home runs which is not that impressive and before you say "small sample size" 200 ABs is quite a few.

The context in which he put up those numbers is important. That BA was 15th in that league for hitters with 190+ PAs. As a 19 year old. Of the 14 guys with higher BAs, 10 of them were at least 21 years old. And for a little extra fun, the Twins now have Jose Salas in their system and he was 19th on that list of BA at the age of 19 as well.

Those 9 HRs were 19th best in the league. And he played only 47 games. The lowest games played of anyone in the league with more was 56 by a 22 year old 3B (not 19 year old CFer like Rodriguez). And that guy had 2 more HRs. That guy (his name is Damiano Palmegiani) was the only player in the league to hit more HRs/game played than Rodriguez.  If that's not impressive to you I don't know what to tell you. Well I guess I could tell you that Rodriguez lead the league in HRs/AB. And was 4th in extra base hits per AB. As a 19 year old, up the middle player.

I guess that's where the hype comes from.

 

[jmlease1]

25 minutes ago, twinsfan02 said:

I Don't understand the hype around this guy. He only hit for a .272 average which is not that great for a so called top prospect in the low minors. He also only had 9 home runs which is not that impressive and before you say "small sample size" 200 ABs is quite a few.

It's 199 plate appearances, not ABs. Dude only had 136 ABs because of the gazillion walks he took. 1 HR every 15.1 ABs is pretty dang good, especially in the FSL at 19. Over 500 ABs (he's never going to get 600 with a walk rate like that!) we're talking 30+ HRs.

He also hit 5 doubles and 3 triples. The SLG is impressive, the OBP is other-worldly.

Sucks that he picked up a knee injury sliding into a base, but at least it's the meniscus, which should be a much easier and faster rehab. I think he'll come back all the way on that one without much of an issue, but YNK. Can wait to see him at cedar rapids and what he can do.

[Dman]

19 minutes ago, twinsfan02 said:

I Don't understand the hype around this guy. He only hit for a .272 average which is not that great for a so called top prospect in the low minors. He also only had 9 home runs which is not that impressive and before you say "small sample size" 200 ABs is quite a few.

You need to look beyond batting average to understand his impact last year. Batting average is great but not making outs is the name of the game.  You only get three each inning so walks are important too. With Rodriguez's BA and Walks factored in he was on base 50% of the time.  Every other time he came up he found his way on base so his batting average was essentially .500.  No else in his league was close to that number.

He played less than half the year so if you extrapolate out the 9 HR's he had we would have likely hit around 20 HR's if he played the whole year which is hard to do. A lot of his hits were doubles and HR's which have more value than singles and walks so his slugging was an elite .551.  Add it all up and that is a 1.044 OPS which again is elite.  Oh and he did that primarily against 21 and 22 year old's and he was only 19.  The Cherry on top none of those older players out performed him.

He will only be 20 next year and he still has time to hit that precious .300 average as he was only 19 last year, but the bigger thing is he has proven he has elite power, elite eye at the plate, probably a five tool player which is very hard to find as well.  I wouldn't get stuck to much on just batting average as you will be selling lot's of players short.

[saviking]

27 minutes ago, Ricky Vaughn said:

Going to get to Cedar Rapids early this year before he is gone.

I was thinking the same

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, Otaknam said:

E Rod is a very intriguing prospect from everything I read. Let’s just hope the Twin FO doesn’t package him or any of the other top ten prospects like Lee for another number three starter, as is their MO. 

When was the last time the Twins traded such an esteemed prospect? Let alone for a number three starter?

[nicksaviking]

33 minutes ago, Ricky Vaughn said:

Going to get to Cedar Rapids early this year before he is gone.

Based on how they handled Lee, CES, Carmago and Prato last year, Cedar Rapids doesn't appear to be a long layover for guys who are hitting.

They did seem to put the brakes on guys at Wichita on the other hand.

[miracleb]

Go easy on Twinsfan02!  He admitted he didn't understand!

:)

 

[roger]

So everyone at TD had him #3.  Sure seems possible a year from now you will look back and see you were wrong.  
 

My biggest question is whether or not he will still be eligible to be a prospect next winter?  Every so often a young star comes along and makes it to “the show” as a 20 year old?  Can E-Rod be that next star?

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, twinsfan02 said:

I Don't understand the hype around this guy. He only hit for a .272 average which is not that great for a so called top prospect in the low minors. He also only had 9 home runs which is not that impressive and before you say "small sample size" 200 ABs is quite a few.

A 19 year old kid with a 1045 OPS is very impressive at any level.

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Can you just imagine this core with Rodriguez, Raya, Prielipp, Canterino, Salas, and Miller ready to join the mix in ‘25?

I believe there is no reason Rodriguez, Ray, Prielipp couldn't be up before 25, and Canterino will be 27 in 25. If he stays healthy this year and pitches like he has he seems like a guy that could be called up this year.

[Nashvilletwin]

Just now, TwinsDr2021 said:

I believe there is no reason Rodriguez, Ray, Prielipp couldn't be up before 25, and Canterino will be 27 in 25. If he stays healthy this year and pitches like he has he seems like a guy that could be called up this year.

All the better!

[PDX Twin]

What about the interior makeup? Is he Luiz Arraez, listening to and working with the likes of Carew to get better every day? Or is he Miguel Sano, ignoring advice, swinging for the stat line, and burning himself out trying to hit 500-foot bombs?

That's going to go a long way toward determining his long-run success.

[2wins87]

I have no worries about his approach at the plate.  I'm not sure about the K rate though, so I'm still withholding a lot of judgement until we see how he holds up at higher levels.

He's really a statistical unicorn.  His overall offensive production was dominant, but it's hard to find other guys with that level of production without K rates below 20%, and often below 15%.

Definitely the one guy that I'm most eager to see getting more playing time under his belt.

[Jocko87]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

Based on how they handled Lee, CES, Carmago and Prato last year, Cedar Rapids doesn't appear to be a long layover for guys who are hitting.

They did seem to put the brakes on guys at Wichita on the other hand.

Looking forward to it!