Kirk Gibson Offers Hope for Alex Kirilloff

[Hans Birkeland]

Alex Kirilloff is following the path blazed by an MVP and World Series legend.

Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

The Twins certainly have a history when it comes to their most hyped prospects getting to the majors and immediately or shortly thereafter suffering career-altering injuries. To make matters worse, these prospects usually show they can handle the hardest part of breaking through to the majors: holding their own, or even thriving against big league pitching/hitting. A few examples:

• Jason Kubel (Knee)
• Joe Mauer (Knee)
• Francisco Liriano (Elbow)
• Byron Buxton (Three Stooges Syndrome)
• Royce Lewis (Knee X2)
• Trevor Larnach (Core)

And to a lesser extent:

• Bailey Ober (Groin)
• Christian Guzmán (Shoulder)

Another player to add may be Alex Kirilloff. Drafted by the Twins 15th overall in 2016, he hit right away in the short-season leagues until he tore a ligament in his elbow and missed all of 2017 while recovering from Tommy John surgery. He reestablished himself in 2018, hitting .348 in two levels of Single-A. Prior to 2019, he was ranked by Baseball Prospectus as the 39th best overall prospect while being praised for “preternatural raw hitting talent.”

He dealt with more minor injuries the following few years, but still ranked as high the ninth overall prospect at MLB.com and fifteenth at Baseball America. Opinions of scouts obviously differed, but no one doubted his hitting ability. The question was how much power he would show and at what position.

However, since debuting in the 2020 postseason, just about nothing has gone according to plan. Kirilloff tore a ligament in his wrist in 2021 after starting out hot at the plate, tried to play through it and lost his ability to drive the ball. He underwent season-ending surgery, came back in 2022, and experienced the same soreness. He took some time off, went to Triple-A and raked for a month, his power seemingly back. 

He arrived back with the big club in June and continued to hit with a slash line of .306/.346/.469 in the 29 games following his promotion. He looked good at first and playable in the outfield. Had the Twins found their number five hitter for the next several years?

Not quite. A recurrence of the same wrist issue again ended his season, this time resulting in a much more invasive ulna shaving surgery. Now, his .694 career OPS is below average and often quoted by national outlets as reasons why he is a disappointment, but that’s pretty lazy analysis. 

After starting his career 0-for-14 in 2021, Kirilloff went on a seven-game tear, hitting for a 1.190 OPS before he sustained the original wrist injury. A lot of players have hot seven game stretches, and never become anything, but the 29-game stretch in 2022 cemented for me what he is with two wrists. Watch a single game of a healthy Kirilloff while factoring in his prospect pedigree, and its hard to come away thinking he is anything but a pure, line-to-line hitter with tremendous plate coverage.

That said, he is aggressive, and I doubt we’ll ever see him walk in ten percent of his plate appearances, healthy or not. He’s also not quick in the outfield, so his bat will need to carry him. But take a look at this swing, his second opposite field homer of that day, and tell me it won’t. In my player comps series, I compared his upside to a less patient Will Clark, but a more realistic comp may be Rondell White, a notoriously aggressive hitter who hit for high averages and decent power during his heyday with the Expos.

The caveat, of course, is we don’t know how Kirilloff’s wrist will respond to the bone -breaking surgery and plate implant completed only six months ago. One source of optimism is the one major leaguer who underwent the same procedure over forty years ago: Kirk Gibson.

After starring in baseball and football at Michigan State, Gibson was touted as one of the game’s premier power-speed prospects in the late 1970s but almost had his career ended before it began after he took a swing during his rookie season on June 16, 1980. He felt a pop in his wrist and immediately left the game. What happened next is documented in the book Detroit Tigers 1984: What a Start! What a Finish!

“Gibson woke up the next day in severe pain. The team doctors could not find a problem, so the wrist was put in a cast to rest it. The injury resulted in a truncated season in which Gibson hit .263 with nine home runs. In August, he visited the Mayo Clinic, where doctors found the problem: an abnormal development in his arm bones. They shortened his ulna bone and inserted a steel plate. Gibson was told that he would need eight months of rehabilitation. There were no guarantees that the wrist would hold up or that Gibson would ever play baseball again. The irony was that the wrist injury would not have affected his playing football.”

Gibson did reinjure the wrist in 1981 and sat out a month, but returned and hit .328 the rest of the year. The surgery was clearly a success, as Gibson hit .275/.358/.477 the rest of the decade, winning an MVP in 1984 and hitting perhaps the most famous home run in baseball history.

By all accounts, Kirilloff is doing well in his rehab, experiencing minor soreness but not the pain he felt in 2021 or 2022. Expecting him to turn into Kirk Gibson is probably foolish (or at least unfair), but at least there is precedent for a top prospect to rebound from such an extreme procedure and have a long, productive career,

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[Nashvilletwin]

Didn’t know that about Gibson. Great post - enjoyed the recap on Kiriloff.

Here’s hoping this surgery works for Alex’s sake; it must be incredibly sad and frustrating for him not see his potential being hit despite all the hard work. We’re pulling for you Alex!

[mikelink45]

Very interesting post - thank you.  

Mark Teixiera also suffered a wrist injury.

Here is another good look at wrist injuries from 2014

[Karbo]

All we can do is hope it works well. Hate to see a guy with so much potential go down. That said, IMO it would be foolish not to have a solid back up plan in case it doesn't go so well.

[HrbieFan]

That HR by Gibson was such a thing of beauty! It was a scene straight out of a movie 

[jmlease1]

Didn't know that Gibson had essentially the same procedure! It's sorta nice to know that this isn't unprecedented in MLB.

I really hope this fixes the issue for Kirilloff. I'm convinced of his talent and see him as a guy who will hit lasers all over the ballpark. I think his walk rate probably goes up a little; there's no question that he knows the strike zone, and I expect he'll work the count a little more to get the pitch he wants...and lay off the stuff that MLB pitchers will try and get him to chase. But he will be aggressive and go for hits. 15-20 HRs is more than reasonable, and I think he's the kind of player who can hit 40 doubles if he's healthy for a full season. 

Sure could be fun if he's finally found the solution to that balky wrist. He's such a talented hitter.

 

[CRF]

Sure hope he can come back at 100%, or as close as possible. We really could use him in the lineup. Didn't realize he had such an injury history. 

[Whitey333]

Nice article.  I hope AK can finally become the full time productive hitter we all see gli.pses of.  Kinda like a guy named Byron Buxton in that regard.  Anyway good luck Alex.  Go Twins

[Blyleven2011]

Great article ...

didn't know Gibson had the same surgery  , im more optimistic that it works out for kiriloff on his recovery of wrist injuries  ...

we're pulling for you Kirilloff  ...

[rv78]

It has been posted before that Gibson had basically the same surgery. Knowing it was 40 years ago and turned out to be reasonably successful is a good sign for Kirilloff and the Twins. I would speculate that 40 years later the surgery has been fine-tuned as well which should make it being a success even more of a probability. A healthy Kirilloff at 1B may be the key to a winning season and the Twins taking the next step towards the ultimate goal of a Championship if not in 2023 but within the next few years.

[miracleb]

I hadn't heard much about this type of injury so this is definitely encouraging!  Kirilloff won't have the longevity of Gibson but he certainly can have the same or better production(I think it will be better.)  Gibson had the HR that everyone remembers but his production was marginally better than Eddie Rosario (but over a much longer period of time....which IS also important!)

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, miracleb said:

I hadn't heard much about this type of injury so this is definitely encouraging!  Kirilloff won't have the longevity of Gibson but he certainly can have the same or better production(I think it will be better.)  Gibson had the HR that everyone remembers but his production was marginally better than Eddie Rosario (but over a much longer period of time....which IS also important!)

Gibson had a 5-year run where he produced an average of 4.76 WAR.   Rosario's best 4 years he produced an average of 2.6 WAR.    I would not call that "marginally" better.  Rosario was extremely good from the last half or 2017 through the first half of 2018.  He was marginally less productive than Gibson during those two half-seasons but not even close outside that short window when Rosario shined.   Hopefully, Kirilloff's production is closer to Gibson than Rosario.

[JD-TWINS]

Good information! Encouraging.

Kirk Gibson, having been a cross-over football player, probably had some more thickness/strength in his forearms & wrists than Kirilof. Still an encouraging comparison.

In my mind our first base production has been an afterthought but somebody that can hit will end up there.

If we can get 30 starts there v. LH pitching from Miranda, 20 random starts from Gallo, to sharpen him there for an “if needed” situation in the fall, and 110 starts from a productive Kirilof - we’re laughing!!

I realize we are not playing all the Central Division teams as much as in the past and the line-up vs. opponents in general is what matters. However, I saw a Central Division All-Star Team by position last week - we had 4 starters of 8 spots from the everyday line-up’s. CF - RF - SS - C ………the guy from Cleveland was starting at 1B - weak choice but nobody else to choose. Kirilof could make a spot for himself there with an average season for him of .280/.325/.420.

Our depth is unquestionably the best in the Division!

Cleveland’s 2B - 3B - LF are all very good!

If we have 5 of the best 8 players by position & the deepest bench in our Division so we should be OK in the W-L area.

[PDX Twin]

Maybe this was covered in other articles, but how many other hitters have had this surgery and what were the results? It's nice to know that there is an example of success, but if it is one out of 50 I'm less optimistic.

[Doctor Gast]

Indeed very encouraging after all the negative hype that was out there that there was no hope for him more than likely his career was over after the surgery. His trade value crashed. Like all negative hype it wasn't base on facts. This fact about Gibson's same surgery gives us more certainty about Kiriloff future. 

[LastOnePicked]

Just when I thought I was out of hope.

Nice article. If I could humbly ask the baseball gods for a favor, it would be to give Buxton, Lewis and Kirilloff a chance to play the season with absolutely minimal pain and maximum mobility. It may be asking a lot, but I would love to see this young man in particular flourish at the big league level.

[Seansy]

Great story you found! Well done!

[Hans Birkeland]

5 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Very interesting post - thank you.  

Mark Teixiera also suffered a wrist injury.

Here is another good look at wrist injuries from 2014

That's a pretty cool article as far as understanding what causes most wrist issues for hitters. Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista are two of my favorite hitters all time, so hopefully Kirilloff follows a similar path!

[Hans Birkeland]

1 hour ago, PDX Twin said:

Maybe this was covered in other articles, but how many other hitters have had this surgery and what were the results? It's nice to know that there is an example of success, but if it is one out of 50 I'm less optimistic.

I scoured the internet for this, but Gibson and some college tennis players were all I could find. The surgery has a high success rate among the general population, but then again we don't have to torque our wrists against 100 MPH fastballs.

[Hans Birkeland]

5 hours ago, Karbo said:

All we can do is hope it works well. Hate to see a guy with so much potential go down. That said, IMO it would be foolish not to have a solid back up plan in case it doesn't go so well.

My guess is that is why the front office is playing hardball with Max Kepler. If Kirilloff isn't an option, Gallo moves to first, with Kepler and Larnach the starting corner outfield. That would also mean the DH spot would likely go to Gordon against righties and one of the catchers or Farmer against lefties. Luke Voit and Yuli Gurriel also become viable options.

[darin617]

8 hours ago, HrbieFan said:

That HR by Gibson was such a thing of beauty! It was a scene straight out of a movie 

God bless steroids and that there were rules against them at the time.

[dxpavelka]

Just gonna say that using a guy who never hit .300, never hit 30 home runs, never drove in a hundred runs, never had more than 157 hits in a season, was never an all-star and was gifted an MVP as a comp does not inspire confidence. 

[Hans Birkeland]

18 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

Just gonna say that using a guy who never hit .300, never hit 30 home runs, never drove in a hundred runs, never had more than 157 hits in a season, was never an all-star and was gifted an MVP as a comp does not inspire confidence. 

That 38.4 WAR not doing anything for ya?

[dxpavelka]

2 hours ago, Hans Birkeland said:

That 38.4 WAR not doing anything for ya?

Dude was slightly above average ball player.  Shoulda stuck with football.

[dxpavelka]

2 hours ago, Hans Birkeland said:

That 38.4 WAR not doing anything for ya?

About the same as Ray Lankford's 38.2 in virtually the same number of career plate appearances.

[Hans Birkeland]

3 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

About the same as Ray Lankford's 38.2 in virtually the same number of career plate appearances.

Yeah cuz Ray Lankford was awesome! Power-speed threat, OPS topped out at .996. 123 career OPS+. Good defender. Always had him on my team in video games.

[dxpavelka]

32 minutes ago, Hans Birkeland said:

Yeah cuz Ray Lankford was awesome! Power-speed threat, OPS topped out at .996. 123 career OPS+. Good defender. Always had him on my team in video games.

yawn

 

[jmlease1]

11 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

yawn

 

Apparently you don't need guys who have a prime where they average around 4 bWAR per season over 7-8 years. I guess you're another one of those "if they're not an MVP I don't need to know their name" fans. Of course, that's not really how baseball works, so maybe you should find a new sport.

If Kirilloff returns from his early injury problems to be as productive as Gibson or Lankford, then it's a huge win for the Twins.

[terrydactyls]

19 hours ago, Hans Birkeland said:

I scoured the internet for this, but Gibson and some college tennis players were all I could find. The surgery has a high success rate among the general population, but then again we don't have to torque our wrists against 100 MPH fastballs.

I take exception to the last comment!  Have you ever engaged in hand-to-hand combat at a budget meeting for the last donut?  That, my friend, involves some serious torque!

[dxpavelka]

11 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

Apparently you don't need guys who have a prime where they average around 4 bWAR per season over 7-8 years. I guess you're another one of those "if they're not an MVP I don't need to know their name" fans. Of course, that's not really how baseball works, so maybe you should find a new sport.

If Kirilloff returns from his early injury problems to be as productive as Gibson or Lankford, then it's a huge win for the Twins.

A first round draft pick that never hits .300, never hits 30 home runs, never drives in a hundred runs, never gets a hundred and sixty hits in a season and is never an all-star is a huge win.  Sure.  Ok.  NOW we understand why we haven't won a World Series since the first Bush administration.