The Twins Built Consistency this Offseason

[Ted Schwerzler]

There was a time this winter when the Minnesota Twins had to seriously ask themselves whether a rebuild made sense. They missed on some key free-agent targets, and the market was relatively bare. As the front office was again rewarded for their patience, a consistent winner has been built. We hope. 

 

Image courtesy of © Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

It would not at all be fair to suggest that patience was a key reason Carlos Correa will be a Minnesota Twin for the bulk of his prime. Certainly, that is how things worked out, but it took both the San Francisco Giants and New York Mets backing out of deals in order to make it happen. It doesn’t matter to Derek Falvey or Thad Levine, however, as both are simply ecstatic it got done. With that deal, Minnesota was able to turn the tide.

Without Correa, and leaning on the likes of Kyle Farmer, it was worth wondering if impending free agents such as Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, or Tyler Mahle made sense to keep around. The Twins have a solid amount of pitching prospect depth, and while none of them currently look the part of an ace, they all carry a fairly high floor.

The notion that Minnesota’s front office may have needed to pivot on its strategy of competitiveness changed in an instant. With Correa, the future becomes clear.

Coming off two straight losing seasons, Rocco Baldelli and the Twins are angling to again be atop the AL Central. Chicago’s offseason was not a good one, and although Andrew Benintendi was a fine signing, Mike Clevinger is looking like a non-factor. The Guardians went out and got both Josh Bell and Mike Zunino, but it remains clear that the bulk of their production will need to come from internally-developed options.

For Minnesota, Correa anchors an infield that now sees both Royce Lewis and Brooks Lee turn into supplemental talents. With both being Top 100 prospects, there is plenty of reason to believe they can contribute in a big way wherever they find opportunity. Byron Buxton is here for good, and although Joey Gallo is currently on just a one-year deal, Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner, Gilberto Celestino, and even Austin Martin all represent long-term outfield options.

Jose Miranda looks the part of a fixture on the infield, and with a healthy wrist, Alex Kirilloff can be in a similar situation. Joe Ryan isn’t going anywhere in the rotation, and Pablo Lopez brings team control with him. For the first time in quite a while, the narrative isn’t about a window or a fleeting opportunity.

For a front office, this should always be the goal. While winning a World Series is obviously the ultimate pinnacle, finding a way to sustain relevance is key. Attendance dipped lower than it has in decades last season, but fans will come back to the ballpark for a winner. They may immediately be mad that Luis Arraez is gone, but when the team has a lead in August, none of that will matter anymore.

Before the Twins can look at putting another ring on their fingers, they’ll need to slay the giant that is the postseason losing streak. Putting themselves in a position to be a yearly participant was the goal, and it looks as though they have achieved that as a baseline. Consistency is now something that both Buxton and Correa can preach to youth, and it’s something that can be sold to free agents in the coming years.

The front office will continue needing to change out parts, but that is a yearly process in baseball. The core of this roster is here to stay, and much of it looks to have talent worthy of starting on a nightly basis. It’s not as though the Twins are all of a sudden some sort of juggernaut, but the bones of the 26-man roster look better than they have in a long time.

It was a weird way to get here, but Twins fans should be excited about this promise for years to come.

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[Karbo]

On paper at least, it looks like the Twins have a good team to start. I can't wait to see how the season goes. If they have another losing season it is time to get rid of Rocco. He has the horses this year, so lets see how he does!

[Nashvilletwin]

 2023 is shaping up to be a year with very little downside.

If the one year bets on Gallo, Farmer, Taylor, Kepler, Polanco (maybe), Mahle, Gray and Maeda work out we should be able to compete for the title in a weak AL Central. The team could be incredibly boring to watch though, especially if Buxton goes down. But winning solves lots of problems - including watching boring teams. 

If things don’t work out and we flounder, we get to give Lewis, Lee, Julien, Wallner, Martin, Celestino, Ober, Varland, Winder and SWR plenty of major league experience to see what we’ve got in them as we prep for a better window starting in ‘24. Also, we likely help restock the prospect cupboard by trading some/a lot of the vets. I for one would be tuning daily in to watch those players in the 2nd half.

Really the worse case scenario is where we straddle that line just enough that the FO doesn’t have the wisdom, courage, or humility to make the tough calls (either more chips in or take some off the table).  Let’s cross that bridge when we get there though. For now, let’s get the season started and win!

[weitz41]

This looks to by far the best Twins team we've seen in awhile. IMO lots of quality depth everywhere except the BP. That could be addressed before the season starts. Just keep the injuries to a minimum and it should be the end to some ugly streaks in Twins and baseball history. (I hope) 

[mikelink45]

I am ready for the season!  If we think we can compete with Cleveland we should stop referring to the weak central since Cleveland showed it is more than just a good team. How much did the others improve??  But with the current scheduling it is not the division that is going to count as much as it has in the past. 

[wsnydes]

On paper this might be the case.  The key will be staying healthy though.  If they keep up the injury pace that they've had the last two seasons, it's awfully hard to have consistency both individually and as a team.  

[Whitey333]

I think there is the real possibility this team competes.  But your assumption that they have built a long term competitive team are presumptuous at best.  This is a team with too many ifs, too many players on one year deals, too many pitchers with a history of injury problems.  If, there is that word again, they are injury free and play to their potential they should be fine.  But you still have Rocco that is likely to wreck the whole thing again.   If the team stays relatively injury free and ends up not being competitive then Rocco and the FO must go.

[LastOnePicked]

2 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Really the worse case scenario is where we straddle that line just enough that the FO doesn’t have the wisdom, courage, or humility to make the tough calls

Well, they could make the tough calls and make them wrong. Imagine hovering on the cusp of Wild card contention and again slicing up the farm system to bring in guys who instantly collapse. Kind of like 2022 all over again.

I know folks think this offseason represents a push for consistent winning. I just see A LOT of question marks all over the diamond - more than you'll likely ever see in a contender. I can't shake the feeling it's delusion, and that we should have been entering Year 3 of a total 5-6 year rebuild instead.

[HerbieFan]

100% agree Ted.  The present is exciting.  The future is exciting.  If there are injuries, there are high-upside young guys to fill in and for us to follow. 

No more JA Happ, Matt Shoemaker, Dylan Bundy, Chris Archers necessary...the SP depth now has some upside and is young.  With Vazquez, Correa, Buxton up the middle and then add in guys like Kepler and Gallo in the outfield, the defense should be very good, so that'll help the pitching.

It's not perfect.  There is no "ace".  Miranda is still a little unproven though he could also be a star.  First base is a little unclear if Kiriloff's wrist issue persists.  But I can't wait for the season.  

[Nashvilletwin]

1 hour ago, LastOnePicked said:

Imagine hovering on the cusp of Wild card contention and again slicing up the farm system to bring in guys who instantly collapse.

Exactly my point. This likely becomes the worst case scenario - i.e. the FO chases fool’s gold instead of focusing on a truly World Series competing opportunity in the future. 

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

The FO has added quality depth this off-season.  By adding Lopez, it jacked down much of the rotation one slot.  Signing Correa allows Farmer to be a quality super sub.  By bringing in Gallo (although I was not a fan), they added OF depth to avoid what happened last year with all those AAAA guys manning those positions daily.

I'm excited to see where this quality and depth leads us this season.  It should be fun.

[Seth Stohs]

While I'm the eternal optimist and try to find the positives in everything, I don't think I agree with this too much. 

I think it was a good offseason for the Twins. Correa is back. They have 6 starters with over a year of MLB experience now, and the pitching pipeline that I do see the early returns of is showing up but now they are options 6-10 instead of 3-7. The depth of pitching, some of which can help the bullpen as needed. Adding Gallo, Taylor, Farmer, Vazquez were all good moves. 

But I'm not sure we can say yet that they have found some consistency. Consistency in terms of what? They finished in 5th in 2021 and in 3rd last year. I believe they were fine last year if not for all the injuries, and I believe Nick Paparesta can help with some of that. But it's hard to know if the window is fleeting. I think we thought that when they won the division in 2019, and again in 2020. I think we thought that before that last place 2021. 

It's hard to call it sustainable yet when three of the five starters will be free agents after this season. Hopefully Paddack is back in 2024, but as of now, Lopez would be a free agent after 2024. I have a lot of hope in guys like Varland, SWR, Balazovic, Ryan, Ober, Headrick, Festa, Winder and even going down to maybe Raya and Prielipp. While that's good depth, it's hard to say that it will be sustainable at this time. Hopefully in 2024 we can feel that. 

From the lead paragraph, "As the front office was again rewarded for their patience, a consistent winner has been built." I don't think we know that, and don't most projection systems have this roster projected for 77-82 wins? Again, with health, my personal opinion is that they can win more games than that, but we need to see it first. Right? 

[Blyleven2011]

In the article it was written  that the fans are mad at losing arraez and it won't matter by August if we're winning  ...

I can see the twins in the world series against Miami and arraez getting the winning hit in game 7  sometimeinthefuture ...

Arraez was the best hitting major leaguer  the twins have brought up in along time , his bat and energy ( spark plug ) will be missed

[rv78]

The core of the roster is here to stay and the talent is worthy of starting on a nightly basis.

You might want to forward that to Rocco, who uses numbers with no regard to talent, to change the lineup on a nightly basis.

[jmlease1]

32 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

In the article it was written  that the fans are mad at losing arraez and it won't matter by August if we're winning  ...

I can see the twins in the world series against Miami and arraez getting the winning hit in game 7  sometimeinthefuture ...

Arraez was the best hitting major leaguer  the twins have brought up in along time , his bat and energy ( spark plug ) will be missed

If the Twins make the World Series, which they haven't done in over 30 years, wouldn't that be a signal that dealing Arraez was the right move? Good grief.

[DocBauer]

I agree with Ted's optimism. But I also agree with Seth's questioning that optimism as well.

WHAT'S GOOD AND TO BE EXCITED ABOUT:

1] The entire pitching staff is the deepest and, overall, the most talented I've seen in a very long time 13-20, with some very interesting arms coming up the next couple of years, but not being counted on in 2023.

2] I like the potential of this lineup a lot, again, with some very exciting talent on the way to make their debuts in 2023, or return to action in the case of Lewis, or 2024 in regard to Lee, and a few others.

3] I like this defense better than last year. I like the depth and versatility presented, even though it wasn't put together quite the way I speculated when the offseason began.

WHAT'S QUESTIONABLE AND TO BE WORRIED ABOUT:

1] Health! Surely the Twins are just due to not have such a cascade of injuries. Kiriloff is potentially very important to now and the future. Is he finally good and ready to go? Will he be so with an extra month to break up scar tissue and just get his wrist "in shape"? And yes, there are questions about many of those staff arms that we don't know for sure will be 100%.

2] As far as sustainability, some of those arms could be potentially gone after this year, or 2024. That means others have to step up and develop. If Gallo returns to his previous productive, powerful, high OPS self, he's only signed for 1yr.

So let's examine both sides. Nothing prevents the Twins from re-signing one, or two of, Gray, Mahle, Maeda, or Lopez. The loss of 2, or even 3, adds $ to the coffers for a re-sign or two. Gallo, Kepler, and even throwing Polanco in to the mix, aren't expensive. But there are potential replacements, younger and less expensive, with a lot of potential to take their place soon and free up even more $. We ABSOLUTELY NEED some more of the young arms to continue to develop, and we all know the names. But Lopez is here next year regardless, Paddack will hopefully make a successful return, Ryan and Ober aren't going anywhere, etc. And I could name more than a handful of potential BP arms/converts that could be factors, possibly soon.

Position player wise, there is hope for Kirilloff at this point, working through soreness, but not experiencing the same pain he had before. Hope is this is "normal" recovery discomfort as he continues his rehab. I don't recall Larnach having any significant injuries in college or during milb. His past two injuries are un-related. Is he also due for a full season? There is no guarantee for health for these 2, or future development/production for Lewis, Lee, Julien, Martin, Celestino, or Wallner. But when you have that many good looking prospects at the ML/AAA/AA level, I believe you mitigate disappointment simply due to the number of good prospects with potential. 

EXAMPLE: Kirilloff is still never right. A tragedy for him, and a big blow for the Twins. But Lee/Lewis at 3B and Miranda and very possibly Juien at 1B mitigates that disappointing loss simply because you have such a depth of young talent "right there".

EXAMPLE 2: Gray and Maeda are gone after 2023, but Mahle is healthy and good and re-signed to a 3-4yr deal. They still have Lopez, Ryan, and Ober. Beyond that is what 2023 opportunity and development brings for Winder, Varland, SWR, Balazovic, and a number of other possibilities "rising".

Within the system, the "problem" is that the young talent is at the ML/AAA level, and then drops down to A ball. There are some good looking AA prospects for 2023 that are interesting, might surprise, or could be solid role players. But there is a talent gap between the upper and lower levels. Of course, if the current top level talent comes through, said gap won't be an issue, and allows time for the lower level talent to arrive.

Seth is right, even as big of an optimist as I am, that we need to SEE not only better health, but  continued development AND production. 100% agree! But I think the counter arguement is obvious that when you have the pure NUMBERS of pitchers and players here, and close, starters and role player options, there is a really good possibility that this team IS poised for sustainability of good baseball and contention even if some guys never do turn out.

I like the construction of this current team, but I'm not going to discuss my opinion potential W-L for 2023 at this point. Not the time or place. And I DO BELIEVE the best/smartest thing they could do is to re-sign at least one of their veteran arms, if not two. The proverbial bird in the hand arguement. But how does the old saying go? If you want 2 good SP, you need 6 prospects. Well, I think that applies to position players as well. I think the depth is there right now for these scenarios to work in the Twins favor. 

[tony&rodney]

Every team in baseball needs to have their best players healthy if they are going to be relevant. San Diego, two years ago, is one example. Thus, it is imperative for the Twins to have a healthy year or just not incur a repeat of the total debacle of injuries from last season.

Going into last season I was thinking that 82 wins, plus or minus four, was a reasonable guess. I also was admittedly too optimistic, although i had real concerns about their starting pitchers. The coming campaign should be more promising because of our starting pitching. The variables also seem greater as well, however. Can the offense respond? I'm going to guess 85 wins for this year with a plus or minus of five. 

The path forward for a consistent winning team will rest on whether Baldelli is more proactive in playing the hot hand and benching the non performers. The younger players will need to display their skills and Falvey will then need to make some difficult decisions in July. Not all of Jeffers, Kirilloff, Miranda, Gordon, Larnach, Lewis, Wallner, Martin, Julien, and Lee will hit the ground excelling but a few should and we may see several of the young guys above used to acquire a needed player. 

The Twins basically are counting on some young players to produce and be supported by what is a fair core of Buxton, Correa, Polanco, and Vasquez. I see the odds sliding in favor of the Twins this summer. 

[IndianaTwin]

I disagree strongly with your suggestion that patience wasn’t a factor in the Twins getting Correa. Yes, the Giants and Mets “agreed” to terms first, but if the Twins would have been impatient they would have turned to an overpay on another shortstop once they thought they were out on Correa. If they’d been impatient, they would have thrown $180 million at Rodon. If they’d been impatient, they could have started dealing the pitchers you mention. If they’d been impatient, they wouldn’t have maintained contact with Boras when they sniffed some uncertainty with the Giants.

They caught a break with the Giants/Mets debacle, sure, but I would say that patience played a huge part in their ability to get Correa.

[Parfigliano]

3 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

If the Twins make the World Series, which they haven't done in over 30 years, wouldn't that be a signal that dealing Arraez was the right move? Good grief.

I would think that

[USNMCPO]

23 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

The team could be incredibly boring to watch

I am of the opposite opinion. This team may very well be much more fun to watch. They have the guys to play very solid defense with possible exception at 3rd base. As hitters they have guys that can spray the ball around the park. It shouldn't be a case of strike out or home run. I may be wrong as i usually am with the Twins, but that is my opinion.

[JD-TWINS]

Ted - agreed on the depth angle!

Read comments from a bunch of detractors & everyone can have their own opinion. However, worrying about health (as if it only means something in Minnesota) like it’s almost a certain negative is old. Obviously, every sports team from 3rd grade Y ball, to NHL, to Vikings, etc. worry about their key players staying healthy. Your point, well made, is that we are more prepared from Buxton/Correa - Gray/Maeda to handle injuries with depth all the way through the St Paul roster.

So we have better depth & should expect at least slightly better fortune than in ‘22.

With that said, can we get off the Manager’s back before Spring Training even starts? “The FO has to go……..” is another old attitude. There are no perfect rosters - there are no perfectly executed plans - there’s gathering guys together and hoping/expecting them to play toward the higher level of their capabilities. You can’t screw that up by taking a pitcher out after 5 1/3 …….,,the players get hits - they score runs. - they get outs. Management puts a group of decent players out there and the players need to stay healthy & perform!