Twins Daily 2023 Top Prospects: #6 Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP

[Nick Nelson]

The prized pitching prospect who came over in the José Berríos trade has reached the majors and will now aim to establish himself there. 

As something more than a mid-rotation starter? That is the question.

Image courtesy of Rob Thompson, St. Paul Saints

Age: 22 (DOB: 9/27/2000)
2022 Stats: (AA/AAA): 107.1 IP, 2.77 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 9.6 K/9, 3.0 BB/9
ETA: 2023
2022 Ranking: 8

National Top 100 Rankings
BA: NR | MLB: NR | ATH: NR | BP: NR

 

What's To Like
The 2021 season was a slog for Simeon Woods Richardson. Pushed aggressively to Double-A at age 20 coming off the lost COVID season, he struggled to find his rhythm, finishing with a 5.91 ERA in 53 1/3 sporadic innings. Spending several weeks abroad with Team USA for the Olympics (where he didn't actually pitch) and getting traded at mid-season for the second time in two years surely didn't help.

The young right-hander took it in stride. He committed to a smoother ride in 2022 and made it happen. After giving up six earned runs in eight innings spread across four appearances at Wichita following the trade in '21, Woods Richardson got off to a much better start in his second tour, going four full turns on the mound before allowing his first earned run of the season. He turned the hot opening into a strong run with the Wind Surge before a bout with COVID in June knocked him out of action for six weeks. 

This time, he wouldn't let the time off derail him. Woods Richardson returned in late July and was lights out. He made five more starts for Wichita, striking out 10 over five innings in the last one before a promotion to Triple-A, where he was consistently excellent through the end of September. 

By the time Woods Richardson got the call to start at Detroit in one of the last games of the Twins season, he had posted a 2.15 ERA while holding opponents to a .188/.255/.266 line in 54 ⅓ innings over his past dozen outings between Double-A and Triple-A. Not much more you can do to earn the opportunity.

He made the most of that opportunity, holding the Tigers to two runs on three hits over five innings. Granted, it was a meaningless game between two eliminated teams eager to close up shop, but still it was a big and impressive moment for Woods Richardson, who was the youngest pitcher to throw in the majors last season. He showed all the polish and poise that got him there.

There are some limitations to SWR's game, as we'll discuss, but his youth gives you the ability to dream on further evolution of his talent. He's still only 22 with room for growth yet. (For comparison, he's about two months older than our #7 prospect Connor Prielipp, who was drafted out of the University of Alabama last summer and hasn't yet thrown a professional pitch.)

What's Left to Work On
Woods Richardson saw a big velocity spike during his senior year of high school in Sugar Land, TX, prompting the Mets to draft him 48th overall and sign him to a $1.85 million bonus.

His advanced stuff played well in the low levels of the minors and Woods Richardson moved fast, reaching High-A by the age of 18. But the trouble is, his stuff sort of stagnated over the next few years. SWR's fastball velo hasn't picked up any added oomph and is now solidly below average in the low 90s range. He hasn't developed a true putaway pitch, although the changeup has emerged as star of the show and helped him decimate lefties last year with an extreme reverse platoon split.

To his great credit, Woods Richardson got the job done everywhere he went in 2022, averaging more than a strikeout per inning, but he wasn't overpowering hitters based on the raw caliber of his pitches. 

Part of what helps him succeed is a funky over-the-top delivery with good extension that routinely keeps hitters from jumping on his pitches. (He allowed only six home runs in 107 innings last year, and has a 0.6 HR/9 overall in the minors.) But Woods Richardson's quirky mechanics can also become a source of inconsistency, leading to occasion command issues that never seemed to surface in the low minors. This was an especially big problem during the 2021 campaign, but he was able to tighten things up last year.

If the lanky 6-foot-3 hurler can further refine and orchestrate all the moving parts in his delivery and find a way to juice up his fastball, he still has the potential to reach another level as a starting pitcher. If not, the Twins will need to decide if they want to keep pushing toward a future in the lower part of the rotation, or potentially bigger things in the bullpen.

What's Next

Woods Richardson reached the majors alongside Louie Varland at the end of last year, so these two stand as the most readily available depth in the prospect pool should a need arise. However, Varland is three years older and seems like more of a finished product, so he's firmly ahead in line.

The Twins will be inclined to show patience with Woods Richardson, giving him ample time and seasoning in Triple-A before they feel ready to promote him for good. They should hopefully have that luxury with at seven starters lined up ahead of him on the depth chart. 

Feel free to discuss SWR as a prospect and ask as many questions as you like in the COMMENTS below.

Previous Installments
Honorable Mention
Prospects 21-30
Prospects 16-20
Prospects 11-15
Prospect #10: Austin Martin, SS
Prospect #9: Louie Varland, RHP
Prospect #8: Jose Salas, INF
Prospect #7: Connor Prielipp, LHP
Prospect #6: Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP
Prospect #5: Coming Monday!

 

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[mikelink45]

I am not sure of him.  The hype is good.  Here is what Keith Law has to say "there isn’t a plus pitch here and the four-seamer lacks life. I think he’ll struggle with hard contact — although, to be fair, he didn’t have that problem at all in Triple A — and end up a back-end starter or a reliever."   

Law ranks him 10 and has the top rated prospect pitcher at 7 - Balazovic.  He believes in Balazovic despite his bad year and writes that off to injury.   

MLB.com has he rated 6 and has Prielipp at 4.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

SWR is a prospect who I am excited to watch progress this year. If he can duplicate last year, then he's ready for the big time. And there should be openings in 2024 for 2-3 starting pitchers for the Twins.

[Dman]

He has the pitches to be a starter.  His stats at AA can't be dismissed and they are really good especially for a hitter's league.  The changeup looks like it will be plus and curve and slider could end up plus with more work but the fastball velocity is far from elite. Still I can't argue with the 2.77 ERA and 1.05 WHIP at AA.  He is hard to hit and while it would be nice if he had a bit better control he got the job done last year.

Still he got sick mid season and in the past we have seen his arm wear down.  If he can't keep it going then he looks more reliever than starter.  He did manage 107 innings last year and hopefully he can add on to that at AAA this year.  I want to say he is a starter but I need to see more stamina to be confident saying that. Even Law felt uncertain of his status as a starter and he didn't feel he had a plus pitch though I disagree with that.

He could be special if he puts it all together.  I will be watching him closely this year.

[Doctor Gast]

I really like SWR demeaner, On paper he doesn't look that great but he gets the job done. Have high hopes for him.

[Karbo]

Need to see how handles more innings in AAA. I also have concerns about his durability. So young and that leads me to believe he has room for more improvement.

[RJA]

SWR is the opposite of Salas and Prielipp.  Salas and Prielipp were rated where they were based on potential rather than a track record, while SWR is rated where he is based on a track record at AA and AAA rather than the overall quality of his offerings.  He seems to be a bit of an overachiever.  While I don't think he will be a front of the rotation type guy, his poise and demeanor, and the likelihood his stuff is likely to improve as he works on his pitches, will make him a solid mid rotation type guy.  It will be interesting to see how he develops this year.

[Sean.h]

So who’s left: lee, lewis, Rodriguez, julien, and …. raya?

[roger]

Results matter, at least to me.   And 2022 was a fantastic year for this young man.

Personally, I like his chances of being a long-term piece of future Twins' rotations.  Also expect he will be closer to the #1 spot than the #5 spot.

 

 

[JD-TWINS]

The results and resilience to date are encouraging!

Law from The Athletic (neutral Point of View) describes him as a probable “reliever stuff” guy. Stuff is stuff & it’s possible his good results to date are due to not seeing same guys a lot and his unique delivery. At MLB level, usually good stuff wins out & unique mechanics may work in short spots?

We’ll find out with a probable first 3 months in St Paul - hoping for continued success! He could be our long reliever in 2nd half of ‘23?

[DJL44]

Plenty of room left for development at age 22 and he's already good enough to pitch in the big leagues. Mid-rotation starters are incredibly valuable.

[laloesch]

15 minutes ago, roger said:

Results matter, at least to me.   And 2022 was a fantastic year for this young man.

Personally, I like his chances of being a long-term piece of future Twins' rotations.  Also expect he will be closer to the #1 spot than the #5 spot.

 

 

I don't think he'll be remotely close to a #1.  I expect a 4-5 starter at best and more likely a relief pitcher given his medicore fastball and lack of a strong out pitch.  

[weitz41]

SWR is one of the tougher prospects to figure out for me. Most on the national publications are of the he's ok to Meh variety. Maybe it's just me but it seems like these national publications are high on Twins hitting prospects but negative on Twins pitching prospects. If he had those numbers and was a Dodger prospect I think he's be a top 100 most if not all their lists. Anyway the Meh reminds me of what they had to say about Varland the season before last. I've got high hopes for him for this season and beyond.

[Trov]

Guys like SWR will always get knocked on where they have issues, and the people that are low on them will continue to say, just wait, just wait. Now a days teams and fans are so obsessed with velo and strike outs.  It is like people forget if you rarely give up hard contact even if you do not strike out many, that will still be good.  I am not saying he will be nearly as good, but I can think of 2 guys that never had high velo, or k's per 9, but still did a good job and got it done.  

Our own Radke, was always below league average in velo on fastball, and even gave up way too many HR some years, but still was a very good pitcher over his career.  Was he a true ace, no, but I would sure as hell take someone of his level again.  

Next Greg Maddux, one of the best pitchers of all time got it done with below league average velo.  He had elite command and amazing movement, but he also had lower k's per 9, highest in single season was 7.8, but mostly sat around 6 to 7. He would just not walk a lot and keep the ball in the park getting weaker contacts.  

There are many more I could point to over the years that get it done with lower than league average velo, but actually pitch well, not just try to overpower them with velo.  The fact is, if a guy knows how to pitch, they can do it without the velo.  Will SWR become an ace, it is less likely, but if he can get his walks down a little more and keep the ball in the park like he has, he should be a very decent pitcher for many years. 

[Trov]

13 minutes ago, laloesch said:

I don't think he'll be remotely close to a #1.  I expect a 4-5 starter at best and more likely a relief pitcher given his medicore fastball and lack of a strong out pitch.  

He strikes out guys around 9 to 10 or more per 9 innings across the minors. He may not have a go to out pitch, but clearly knows how to get outs.  He keeps the ball in the park, and really outside of walks, does not have much issues.  Not sure why that profiles as relief guy.  Sure, he is not a fireballer, but he has gotten the job done overall in his minor league career.  

You address the lack of fastball and strong out pitch.  You know who else profiled that way early in career?  Johan Santana.  If TD was around back in 2000 when we took Santana in Rule 5 everyone would have talked about how he will not stay, is at best a lefty out of the pen, because his fastball is not elite, and lacked an out pitch.  Then he was taught the change up that he took to being one of the best we have ever had.  

Will SWR be that, doubtful, but my point is, to say what a kid at 22 will profile to be because of what he lacks is crazy.  He still has plenty of time to grow, and he has done well along the way.  If you looked at Santan's minor league numbers you would have not even had him in top 30 when he came to Twins.  

Will SWR become the number 1, I doubt it, but I expect he will fall solidly 2 or 3 guy and not a pen guy. 

[Minny505]

Engaging in a little "scouting the stat line", his peripherals didn't really change from pre-2021 to 2022...except one.

His GB% went up about 10 percentage points, a 30-ish% increase. That's impressive! It led to both a lower BABIP and HR rate.

Was it luck?

If he can maintain stay close to a K/IP and a BABIP around 44%, he should be able to carve out a decent MLB career as a SP. 

[jmlease1]

Some of this might depend on where you land on his changeup. If that is/becomes a plus pitch then I think even KLaw would be looking at him a little differently. It's fair to be concerned on whether he will have a problem with hard contact if he doesn't have those plus pitches...but as noted above, this wasn't an issue for him in AAA. He's got good deception in his delivery, but will that big figured out once he's in MLB and guys get a lot more tape on him and experience it? So far that hasn't really happened to Joe Ryan.

I'm a fan of SWR. He's has some real bumps in his development path that were outside of his control. Traded at 18 during his first full year as a pro in 2019. No minor league ball in 2020. Jumped up to AA after not pitching for a year. Sent to the Olympics but didn't get to pitch, then traded again in 2021. Missed extended time again last season because of COVID (don't underestimate this; I'm six weeks past my initial diagnosis and I'm still struggling some days) but got promoted twice and still made his MLB debut. It's not exactly how you would draw it up for developing a high school pitcher...but he keeps getting guys out. the Twins had to basically rebuild him in 2021 after they got him in the trade, and they (and he) deserve credit for getting him back on track.

It will also be interesting to see where his slider and curve end up. If both can be solid pitches for him, now we're looking at a guy who has four pitches he can use and one of the ways you make up for not having as much pure stuff is to have more options to go to. It's much easier to sit on a pitch if you know the player only really throws 2 of them. Sometimes being able to throw 4 pitches can make them all a little more effective because guys won't be sure what's coming, especially if there's good deception in the delivery.

We'll see. The production has been good so far, he's only 22, and starting in AAA is a good place for him this season. Right now I think he's the 3rd guy to call up (assuming Ober & Varland both start in AAA) if needed in the rotation and I have to say that makes me feel pretty good, because 2 years ago i would have been over the moon to have a pitcher like him be the FIRST call up from AAA. If his change continues to develop, he can keep his mechanics in line, and sharpen up one or two of his other pitches he could be a very good starter.

I mean, where would he be, if his development path hadn't gotten knocked around by outside forces basically every year?

[Mike Sixel]

I'm a fan,, but giving examples of similar pitchers from twenty or more years ago doesn't work for me. Hitters are so much better at crushing the ball now. 

I think he's a number four starter, until he gets one plus pitch. That might be enough to get him to a good number three, because the rest of his stuff is good, if not yet elite. He's 22, and has a real chance to get better.

[LA VIkes Fan]

Well said. He is a good example of the depth this team finally has for starting pitchers. There have been many years, if not most years, that he would be starting in the bigs for the Twins due to a lack of other options. 

I agree that he's unlikely to be a long term #1 or even a solid #2 starter unless he develops an "out" breaking pitch like Santana did with his change up. He just doesn't have that 94-95 mph plus velocity to get outs even when he's a little off. Still, even with his current arsenal he has the real potential to be a mid-rotation starter for a number of years. Add to that the fact that he's only 22 and he is a real asset. I think we'll know a lot more in October because I expect him to get at least 10-12 MLB starts this year as an injury replacement (plus I think Maeda winds up in the BP by year end with a new contract as a longer term BP pitcher). The Athletic did an article with prediction on the Twins top 9 starters. They put SWR at the #9 starter spot and Fangraphs predicts a 4.26 ERA in 108 innings for him. I think the prediction is for MLB innings.  To me, that would be a solid start to a long big league career.

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Well said. He is a good example of the depth this team finally has for starting pitchers. There have been many years, if not most years, that he would be starting in the bigs for the Twins due to a lack of other options. 

I agree that he's unlikely to be a long term #1 or even a solid #2 starter unless he develops an "out" breaking pitch like Santana did with his change up. He just doesn't have that 94-95 mph plus velocity to get outs even when he's a little off. Still, even with his current arsenal he has the real potential to be a mid-rotation starter for a number of years. Add to that the fact that he's only 22 and he is a real asset. I think we'll know a lot more in October because I expect him to get at least 10-12 MLB starts this year as an injury replacement (plus I think Maeda winds up in the BP by year end with a new contract as a longer term BP pitcher). The Athletic did an article with prediction on the Twins top 9 starters. They put SWR at the #9 starter spot and Fangraphs predicts a 4.26 ERA in 108 innings for him. I think the prediction is for MLB innings.  To me, that would be a solid start to a long big league career.

I'd be thrilled with those numbers for a rookie

[LA VIkes Fan]

You and me both, Mike. They also project Louie Varland at 4.19 in 129 innings. Interestingly, none of the regular 6 starters are projected below a 3.78 ERA or for more than 156 innings.  The projections I saw in the Athletic are:

Gray - 3.79, 123 innings

Lopez - 3.92, 156 innings (most)

Ryan - 3.91, 150 innings

Mahle - 3.78 (best), 133 innings

Maeda - 4.24 (worst of top 6), 83 innings (fewest of top 6)

Ober - 4.00, 90 innings

Winder - 4.82 (highest overall), 80 innings (fewest)

Varland - 4.19, 129 innings

SWR - 4.26, 108 innings

Interesting stuff. I think probably pretty close to reality for the top 6 except that I think Ryan will be closer to 170 innings and a 3.5 ERA, and Gray will be closer to 150 innings with a 3.5 ERA. Would be thrilled with the predicted performance for Varland and SWR in MLB innings and ERA, a little disappointed if Ober isn't below a 4.00 ERA. Otherwise, these look pretty right on to me. 

[Nashvilletwin]

No reason he can’t be a solid #3-5 starter. There is a hallowed place in the world of MLB for dependable, 180 plus innings #3-5 starters on cheap, controllable deals for multiple years. We should be so lucky if that’s SWR’s floor.  Also,  he’s only 22 for Pete’s sake - if healthy, he should get better.

Raya and Prielipp are our two top of the rotation potential aces arriving in ‘25 to hopefully go alongside Ryan (after we trade Lopez at the deadline in ‘24 - lol).  Some combo of Canterino, Varland, SWR, Ober, and Winder make-up #4-8 spots in the rotation. As the next window takes flight, we could have a seriously decent and cheap rotation - with the cash available to augment it as we see fit.

[DJL44]

I think MLB trade values is ridiculously low with a $5.4M value on Woods-Richardson. We are in a world where Taijuan Walker just signed a 4 year $72M contract. That's what a #3 starter costs on the open market.

[Nashvilletwin]

1 minute ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

You and me both, Mike. They also project Louie Varland at 4.19 in 125 innings. Interestingly, none of the regular 6 starters are projected below a 3.78 ERA or for more than 156 innings.  The projections I saw in the Athletic are:

Gray - 3.79, 123 innings

Lopez - 3.92, 156 innings (most)

Ryan - 3.91, 150 innings

Mahle - 3.78 (best), 133 innings

Maeda - 4.24 (worst of top 6), 83 innings (fewest of top 6)

Ober - 4.00, 90 innings

Winder - 4.82 (highest overall), 80 innings (fewest)

Varland - 4.19, 129 innings

SWR - 4.26, 108 innings

Interesting stuff. I think probably pretty close to reality for the top 6 except that I think Ryan will be closer to 170 innings and a 3.5 ERA, and Gray will be closer to 150 innings with a 3.5 ERA. Would be thrilled with the predicted performance for Varland and SWR in MLB innings and ERA, a little disappointed if Ober isn't below a 4.00 ERA. Otherwise, these look pretty right on to me. 

Very interesting. I’ve been writing for some time that my over under on total IPs in ‘23 for our three extension candidates (Mahle, Gray and Maeda) was 375.  Looks like the Athletic took the under by quite a bit….

The great news is that 4 of our 5 long-term #3-5 type starters are going to see plenty of MLB innings this season as long as they are healthy (Canterino being the fifth who probably won’t get a cup of coffee this year). That experience will be invaluable heading into ‘24 with Lopez and Ryan at the top of the rotation. 

[ddubbl1]

I hope he develops into a great pro pitcher, but is the double last name really necessary? It looks ridiculous on the back of Twins jersey. Pick one or the other. Just like celebrities that insist on using their full name (with middle name), it's effing stupid and annoying. Do what you want in St. Paul, but if you get called up, ditch the Woods please.

[DJL44]

7 minutes ago, ddubbl1 said:

I hope he develops into a great pro pitcher, but is the double last name really necessary? It looks ridiculous on the back of Twins jersey. Pick one or the other. Just like celebrities that insist on using their full name (with middle name), it's effing stupid and annoying. Do what you want in St. Paul, but if you get called up, ditch the Woods please.

Which one of his parents do you suggest he disrespect?

Quote

It was part nature, part nurture. Woods Richardson has two fathers, both of whom he’s close with. Joel Richardson, his biological father, played college baseball and was briefly a minor-leaguer in the Seattle Mariners organization. Arthur Woods, who raised him from the time he was born, played college football. 

 

[2wins87]

Only one mlb start, but enough to get a bit more info on his pitches.  I liked this chart showing his spin and break directions from baseball savant:

A lot of guys have "over the top" deliveries, but his is about as straight over the top as you can get, so he does have that bit of uniqueness going for him.

Don't--I can't stress this enough--don't take too much away from this, but when I was perusing for guys with sort of similar spin/break characteristics, I found this left-handed version:

Again, it doesn't mean too much. When I was looking for fastballs with similar break I also found Chase De Jong.  And this is late career Kershaw, who still gets it done but has impeccable command

Anyway, like others, I don't think you can ignore success in the high minors.  He will need to find more consistent velocity on his fastball; I know he can run it up into the mid 90's, but the 91 MPH in his late season MLB start will probably get knocked around from time to time.  I think his command is pretty good for his age, so if he can continue to refine that I think he's got a pitch mix that plays as a starter.  If his command stagnates then it's probably dicey, but that's where his youth is still working for him.

[se7799]

My question to anybody that may have input on him or an opinion.  Wasn't he a top 100 global prospect back with Toronto..maybe even top 50 by mlb?  If so why the drop?  Was it the bad year in 21 or just new pitchers added to lists..or something I am overlooking?  Thanks

[stringer bell]

I am on the SWR train. At 22, he may have a bit of physical development left and his pitch mix is already good enough so that he should be in the majors for good sometime this year or for sure next year. I don't see him as a bullpen guy because he has more than two pitches.

Finally, it is a crazy world where a low-to-mid 90s fastball is now considered "below average". I hope SWR can stay healthy and make the next step this year.

[Cris E]

He's likely a back end rotation guy who will get chances to start. That's more than a Winder or Sands can count on, so good for him and good for the Twins. It's a valuable thing to have a #4 that aspires to be a #3. As mentioned above, these guys cost real money, and not having them means Aaron Sanchez starts getting more innings - good for him but not good for the team.