One "Moore" Bullpen Piece for Minnesota

[Ted Schwerzler]

The Minnesota Twins have done plenty this offseason to turn themselves back into a legitimate contender. Coming off of two straight losing seasons, everyone involved is looking for an opportunity to right the postseason record this year. One more reliever could help put them over the top. Namely, Matt Moore.

 

Image courtesy of Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports

Last season, the Minnesota Twins tried to utilize a handful of projects in the bullpen. With Wes Johnson on board, for half of the season at least, tweaking different pitches and arsenals was a way to unlock a better output. Unfortunately, it didn’t go that way more often than not. Emilio Pagan was a disaster from the get-go, and deadline acquisitions such as Michael Fulmer and Jorge Lopez regressed with Minnesota.

Coming into Spring Training, there was little thought that Jhoan Duran would make the Opening Day roster. Then he impressed everyone and never stopped doing so. Once a starter, he could now unleash his triple-digit fastball at the back end of the bullpen, and he consistently slammed the door on the opposition. Had it not been for his dominance though, Rocco Baldelli’s bullpen would have been in much worse shape.

To this point, the Twins have done little to supplement their relief corps. Fulmer is seen as an option simply because he remains available, but there are a few signs that regression could be coming even harder for him. Maybe flipping Max Kepler for a big relief arm makes some sense, but we haven’t seen anything to suggest that is likely to this point.

Although the free agent market is largely picked over, former starter and one of baseball’s top prospects... a decade ago, Matt Moore is still available. Recently, Adam Friedmann called him one of "The Best Options" still available for the Twins.

Working as a starter for the Philadelphia Phillies in 2021, Moore was not good. He posted an ERA over 6.00 and contributed just 73 innings. Ultimately, he was moved to the bullpen. Last year, as a reliever with the Texas Rangers, Moore was unbelievable. He put up a 1.95 ERA with a 2.98 FIP across 74 innings. The 4.6 BB/9 was suboptimal, but he struck out more than 10 batters per nine innings and limited the long ball. All told, it may have been the best season of his career.

Curiously still unsigned, Moore may be dealing with what Ken Rosenthal described as Matt Strahm’s contract destroying the market. Moore played for just $2.5 million last season in Texas, and he was worth substantially more than that. Now looking for a payday on the heels of a lesser Strahm getting $15 million over two years, teams may be apprehensive to meet his ask.

For Minnesota, the allure of Moore is multi-faceted. He’s a left-handed reliever that would pair nicely with Caleb Thielbar. Jovani Moran looked the part as a rookie last year, but walks have always been a bugaboo for him, and consistency could be uncertain entering 2023. Bringing in a veteran like Moore would ease Moran’s workload, and could have him a spot down on the pecking order within the bullpen.

The Twins also aren’t up against topping out when it comes to their budget. A $160 million payroll should be seen as a good place to be this year, and they have yet to reach it. Incentives will ultimately push them over the number by season’s end, but they didn’t bring in Carlos Correa simply to stop short of their goals before the year starts. If the front office knew they needed to grab a bat, a catcher, a starter, and a reliever, they have done it all except for addressing the bullpen.

Moore probably brings a heftier price tag than the likes of Fulmer, Andrew Chafin, or some other leftover. If there is belief in his transition to the bullpen, that should be a cherry on top of an offseason that puts Minnesota right back at the height of the division.

It’s hard to imagine the Twins skipping out on relief help altogether, and thus far they haven’t added an arm outside of the organization that should be expected to crack the 26-man roster. Make Moore an offer and roll with it from there.

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[Dman]

I still think it wouldn't be a bad idea to bring in a veteran arm, but lots of people on the board see room for the young guys to make noise if given opportunity.  It is a tough call, but for me I would like a proven lefty to fall back on.  Not sure how long Thielbar can work that magic and Moran was really good when up but the WHIP concerns me.  They traded away Sisk so there isn't much for lefties left.

Still given what we know about this FO and given they seem to have publicly said they are not likely adding to the pen adding a reliever seems unlikely IMO.  Given the cost mentioned it seems even less likely.  I think in the end I am fine either way they go, but do prefer paying a vet who has proven they can get it done.

[Brandon]

The Twins are probably just over budget for the year right now.  That could change if they presold 2 million tickets before spring training.  Guys call your friends and sell them on getting season tickets.  Then start demanding they sign Matt Moore with the windfall of the extra tickets sold...... 

Or

The Twins could legitimately feel like they have enough bullpen options and depth.

 

[Azviking101]

They’re so close, I don’t understand why they don’t throw a few more million out at a good quality reliever. 

I recognize that Falvey has faith in the current bullpen, but he’s formed a great backup plan for the rotation and the position players. Relief is the cheapest backup plan there is and he just doesn’t want to budge. 
 

there’s a lot of potential in this pen, but too much risk to sit around and do nothing. 

[wsnydes]

I'm one that thinks bringing in another bullpen arm, particularly a veteran one, is a good idea.  I'm not convinced it'll happen, but I'd like to see it happen.

I'm fine with allowing room for some young arms to come up and contribute, but make them earn it and force the team to make a decision.  

[mickster]

32 minutes ago, Azviking101 said:

They’re so close, I don’t understand why they don’t throw a few more million out at a good quality reliever. 

I recognize that Falvey has faith in the current bullpen, but he’s formed a great backup plan for the rotation and the position players. Relief is the cheapest backup plan there is and he just doesn’t want to budge. 
 

there’s a lot of potential in this pen, but too much risk to sit around and do nothing. 

I believe they are taking a gamble that some of these will remain for a few more weeks when they can move Paddock and Lewis to the 60 day IL and create room on the 40 man.   Just a hunch  

[mnfireman]

People continuously come on TD suggesting the FO sign another BP arm. While the idea is sound, who gets cut from the 40 man? 

I think the MLB signings are done for the team until they can move guys to the 60 day IL.

[Brandon]

Let's take a look at who is in the bullpen and depth there now.  I feel like we should sign one more reliever but do we?

1.  Duran

2.  Lopez

3.  Theilbar

4.  Jax

5.  Alcala

6.  Winder

7.  Moran

8.  Megill

9.  Coulombe

10.  Aaron Sanchez

11.  Henriquez

12.  Sands

13.  Dobnak

is there anyone else I am missing?  I think we could be fine with this and some of the starter prospects coming up for a few games here and there as needed.  but also finding a better option then Megill/ Coulombe/ Henriquez is a good idea too.  Also this really needs Winder to transition to the pen well.  If he can do that, I doubt we need a reliever.  we could just wait to trade for one at the deadline after we use some time to sort through some of these options.

[LA VIkes Fan]

I think there’s two things going on that explain why we have not yet added a reliever. The first is we don’t want to drop anyone from the 40 man roster when pitchers and catchers report in just a couple of weeks and we can then put Paddack and Lewis on the 60 day IL. That then opens up two spots on the 40 man to add a reliever. I think that explains why Fulmer, Moore, Chafin, and others have not yet been signed by us or anyone else. I think I read that only the Astros have an open 40 man spot at this point The second is the Strahm contract did reset the reliever market and I think there’s some reluctance to go multiple years with any of these guys, especially when it’s going to be at least $7 million per year.

I would like to see them sign Chafin or Moore, Fulmer not so much. I know that may mean some of the young guys have to take a backseat coming out of spring training, but there’s going to be lots of innings for everyone given the usual injuries in a pitching staff, I don’t think we should be very worried about young pitching not getting a chance; I’m much more worried about the veteran pitching getting so injured that young pitching is all we wind up having.  I do think adding another quality left-handed reliever would really help hence Moore or Chafin. Whoever gives you the best deal. I’m less excited about Fulmer because he wasn’t really all that good the second half of last year and the peripherals are a little scary, so I am less confident in his ability to really perform.
 

 

[Cory Engelhardt]

If they are bringing in a good veteran I'd prefer Chafin, but if they were to bring in Moore he would certainly help.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

25 minutes ago, Brandon said:

Let's take a look at who is in the bullpen and depth there now.  I feel like we should sign one more reliever but do we?

1.  Duran

2.  Lopez

3.  Theilbar

4.  Jax

5.  Alcala

6.  Winder

7.  Moran

8.  Megill

9.  Coulombe

10.  Aaron Sanchez

11.  Henriquez

12.  Sands

13.  Dobnak

is there anyone else I am missing?  I think we could be fine with this and some of the starter prospects coming up for a few games here and there as needed.  but also finding a better option then Megill/ Coulombe/ Henriquez is a good idea too.  Also this really needs Winder to transition to the pen well.  If he can do that, I doubt we need a reliever.  we could just wait to trade for one at the deadline after we use some time to sort through some of these options.

You left out Pagan.  Would you want Pagan or Matt Moore? 

[August J Gloop]

There aren't any current 40-man spots for relievers. Considering the number of decent options still on the market, they're just waiting until they can 60-day Lewis and Paddack. If they then like where the price sits for Moore or Chafin, they'll get to signing. Ken Giles might be good choice vs Fulmer. He's apparently healthy now. We'll see. 

[sun]

I'd rather see extra starters that can be platooned and that can help keep the BP fresh over the course of the season. That could also allow all of the starters to have some friendly competition among themselves which could help set a performance baseline for future contract considerations.  Moore had a bounce back 2022 but who knows if he can keep it up. 

[Stew]

1 hour ago, Brandon said:

Let's take a look at who is in the bullpen and depth there now.  I feel like we should sign one more reliever but do we?

1.  Duran

2.  Lopez

3.  Theilbar

4.  Jax

5.  Alcala

6.  Winder

7.  Moran

8.  Megill

9.  Coulombe

10.  Aaron Sanchez

11.  Henriquez

12.  Sands

13.  Dobnak

is there anyone else I am missing?  I think we could be fine with this and some of the starter prospects coming up for a few games here and there as needed.  but also finding a better option then Megill/ Coulombe/ Henriquez is a good idea too.  Also this really needs Winder to transition to the pen well.  If he can do that, I doubt we need a reliever.  we could just wait to trade for one at the deadline after we use some time to sort through some of these options.

I agree maybe we could get another arm. Maybe we are waiting for a trade to clear room on the 40 man. I'm sure management is still talking to teams.

[Cris E]

Moore isn't better because he finally got a shot at relieving.  He did get a good shot at relieving in 2018 after they pulled him from the rotation. The second two thirds of the season he was in the pen and was almost three runs/gm better than as a starter, yielding only a .252 batting avg in 27 appearances.  Alas, the improvement was from an 8.02 ERA down to 5.36 as he gave up 11 HR and 15 BB in 47 innings. It was not great. To build on that he threw 10 innings in 2019, missing 2020 completely, and then was terrible as both a starter and a reliever in 2021.

2022 was completely different, quite excellent. But the fact that pulled all this together at the age of 33 by throwing harder and improving his spin without any other underlying explanation is not reassuring.  There are six forecasts for him at Fangraphs and the best one is thinking 3.99 ERA with a 4.22 FIP.  Maybe he'll be better than that, but maybe he won't. The established level of performance is not anything close to 2022, so I guess I need to hear a good story about how he's going to sustain this 2mph gain as he gets older. The best I found so far comes from Pinstripe Alley last month: 

Quote

Is the regression monster lurking in the shadows, ready to pounce the moment he takes the mound in 2023? FIP certainly thinks so, as it stands a full run higher than his ERA, inflated no doubt by the 12.5 percent walk rate. And xFIP likes him even less, exceeding his FIP by almost another run as he maintained an unsustainably-low 4.2 percent home run per fly ball rate. With a BABIP 40 points lower than his career average and xwOBAcon almost 100 points lower, enough signs are pointing to Moore being the recipient of some good luck and probably due for movement back toward his performance from the last few seasons.

 

[Brandon]

1 hour ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

You left out Pagan.  Would you want Pagan or Matt Moore? 

With Pagan. ..... Ouch...... we have enough relievers to start the season.  there are 4 or 5 relievers for the last 2 slots if Alcala is good to go for the season.  (Moran, Megill, Coulombe, Winder, and maybe Henriquez with the others further down options).  We can always trade for one if need be before the deadline.  They don't seem too expensive at that time for a middle reliever.  

[DocBauer]

Yes please. I would love Moore or Chafin, I'm not picky. There is a lot of depth and a ton of possibilities for the pen. But not only are some of the arms young and not fully proven at the ML level, but they are virtually all RH. Coulombe has been a nice fill in piece for a few years now with the Twins, but we should be aiming higher. This team has a chance to win some games and it makes no sense to me to stop at 3B for a triple when you might leg out an inside the park HR by addressing this final need.

I'm also of the shared opinion that nothing probably happens until ST begins so they can free up a 40 man spot.

[darin617]

2 hours ago, mickster said:

I believe they are taking a gamble that some of these will remain for a few more weeks when they can move Paddock and Lewis to the 60 day IL and create room on the 40 man.   Just a hunch  

All teams are trying that approach. I think only Houston has an open spot as of right now. Once players can be put on the 60 day IL there will be a bunch of moves happening.

[SkyBlueWaters]

49 minutes ago, Cris E said:

...  Alas, the improvement was from an 8.02 ERA down to 5.36 as he gave up 11 HR and 15 BB in 47 innings. It was not great. To build on that he threw 10 innings in 2019, missing 2020 completely, and then was terrible as both a starter and a reliever in 2021.

[Moore] pulled all this together at the age of 33 by throwing harder and improving his spin without any other underlying explanation is not reassuring.  There are six forecasts for him at Fangraphs and the best one is thinking 3.99 ERA with a 4.22 FIP.  

 

Exactly.

A decade ago this guy was very promising, but TBR knew what they were doing when they dealt him. The Giants gave up another good prospect for him in Matt Duffy (2nd in ROY voting), and Moore was terrible. One year he led the NL in losses and earned runs coughed up. He hemorrhaged baserunners like Bonnie & Clyde. In 174 IP, he gave up 267 hits and walks. Yeah, a WHIP of 1,532 over 31 starts. Nothing like putting your team behind the 8 ball repeatedly.

It's a big gamble to throw big money at the guy given all the disappointments throughout his career.  I know, last year was better, pitching relief in the weakened AL West. But with a track record as established as his, when did he last put together two good years back to back? 

Given the Twins' budget, giving this guy a big payday is a real risk.

[AlGoreRythm]

3 hours ago, Brandon said:

The Twins are probably just over budget for the year right now.  That could change if they presold 2 million tickets before spring training.  Guys call your friends and sell them on getting season tickets.  Then start demanding they sign Matt Moore with the windfall of the extra tickets sold...... 

Or

The Twins could legitimately feel like they have enough bullpen options and depth.

 

Not sure if this was tongue in cheek, but I seriously doubt ticket sales have any affect on this year's payroll.

If payroll is downstream of ticket sales they're doing it wrong, but I doubt this is the case. 

[Brandon]

1 minute ago, AlGoreRythm said:

Not sure if this was tongue in cheek, but I seriously doubt ticket sales have any effect on this year's payroll.

If payroll is downstream of ticket sales they're doing it wrong, but I doubt this is the case. 

I was just popping off.  Quick get the Twins some money so they can afford more players.  Though if revenue did spike because of the expectations of a great season then I can see the Twins adding to this years payroll.  but it would need to be a spike of 20 million +.  that seems like a lot to ask.  so the reality is fun to think about these cartoonish scenario's play out..  Its the offseason so why not,  

[AlGoreRythm]

2 minutes ago, Brandon said:

I was just popping off.  Quick get the Twins some money so they can afford more players.  Though if revenue did spike because of the expectations of a great season then I can see the Twins adding to this years payroll.  but it would need to be a spike of 20 million +.  that seems like a lot to ask.  so the reality is fun to think about these cartoonish scenario's play out..  Its the offseason so why not,  

I guess my point is that results drive ticket sales, and ticket sales aren't likely a main driver of the franchise financially anyway.

Investing in the team this year will affect next year's ticket sales, but even if they somehow sold an extra $20M in tickets for this year, I seriously doubt it would affect this year's payroll in any way.

I think the biggest driver of ticket sales this year was likely resigning Correa, which signaled to the fans that they're pushing to compete.

It would be interesting to see sales info broken down by month or week during the off-season and see what moves correlate with increased ticket sales.

[Galen]

Doesn't matter if the starters can't get into the 6th inning

[terrydactyls]

I don't understand how people can be so worried about the number of walks that Moran allows and then get all excited about pursuing Moore who also gives up a lot of walks.  Why spend $10M on Moore when you already have a much younger version for $1M?

[Karbo]

IMO, put Ober in there rather than any of those mentioned above!

[LewFordLives]

It's not just Strahm's contract. Moore/Fulmer/Chafin can see the $7 million Trevor May got from the A's and are thinking they should be able to get at least 2 years/ $20 million.

I would like to see the Twins add someone. I don't think the bullpen is as deep as some might think. There will be injuries.

[I wish the twins were good]

5 hours ago, August J Gloop said:

There aren't any current 40-man spots for relievers. Considering the number of decent options still on the market, they're just waiting until they can 60-day Lewis and Paddack. If they then like where the price sits for Moore or Chafin, they'll get to signing. Ken Giles might be good choice vs Fulmer. He's apparently healthy now. We'll see. 

If they had to lose megill or sands for a good lefty reliever I certainly wouldn't lose any sleep over it

[sun]

43 minutes ago, LewFordLives said:

It's not just Strahm's contract. Moore/Fulmer/Chafin can see the $7 million Trevor May got from the A's and are thinking they should be able to get at least 2 years/ $20 million.

I would like to see the Twins add someone. I don't think the bullpen is as deep as some might think. There will be injuries.

In case of injury, there will be a lot of BP depth on the Saints just a phone call away. It's a waiting game to see how this year's depth signings work out. 

iMulti-mllions of $$$ doesn't grow on trees, and they also need to grow the attendance. Doesn't the MLB still need to fix the TV rights problem?

[Chaz1966]

No to another reliever at the moment. We have a pretty solid group of arms in St Paul if we need another BP arm. Lets see where the spring takes this team, then if needed maybe an arm can be obtained in a trade. If Kepler has a hot spring maybe Twins can get a young pitching prospect or 2.

[DocBauer]

4 hours ago, SkyBlueWaters said:

Exactly.

A decade ago this guy was very promising, but TBR knew what they were doing when they dealt him. The Giants gave up another good prospect for him in Matt Duffy (2nd in ROY voting), and Moore was terrible. One year he led the NL in losses and earned runs coughed up. He hemorrhaged baserunners like Bonnie & Clyde. In 174 IP, he gave up 267 hits and walks. Yeah, a WHIP of 1,532 over 31 starts. Nothing like putting your team behind the 8 ball repeatedly.

It's a big gamble to throw big money at the guy given all the disappointments throughout his career.  I know, last year was better, pitching relief in the weakened AL West. But with a track record as established as his, when did he last put together two good years back to back? 

Given the Twins' budget, giving this guy a big payday is a real risk.

I understand and appreciate your consternation. And as I stated, I'd be fine with Chafin as well. But you have to consider 2 points:

1] Most quality RP...and most all of them in general...were "failed" SP for one of many reasons. And they found new life as a bullpen piece. Just speaking Twins history alone, you'd be looking at Aguillera, Tremblay, Perkins, just to name a few. So Moore's history as a failed SP shouldn't weigh on his potential to continue as a quality BP arm going forward.

2] When ST is about to start, anyone still on the market is probably not going to get some "max value" contract. They will "settle" for lower value, possibly even a 1yr deal. AND, just because a few teams went NUTS and overspent on a BP arm simply doesn't necessarily set a standard that the other 20+ teams are willing to pay.

I wouldn't touch Moore, or any RP probably, for $10M unless he was proven and special. But I'd STRONGLY suggest $7-8M per on a 1-2yr deal for an arm with electricity wouldn't be a bad choice. And right now, there is a dearth of LH BP options for the Twins. 

Thielbar is great, and probably has more life left. Moran has a potentially great future, but has reverse splits and needs to get better against LH bats. Headrick is a SP option on the 40 man who MIGHT help or move to the pen. Coulombe is a non 40 man option AGAIN who can help, and probably will. After that, you've got 2 or 3 arms that pitched for AA last year that are intriguing, and MIGHT find themselves as viable options at some point late in 2023, or, more likely, as 2024 options.

Again, I wouldn't drop $10M or so on Moore or anyone available. But I'd seriously consider something in the $7-8M range for a port sider that could push the bullpen from solid to potentially great.