Twins Daily 2023 Top Prospects: #10 Austin Martin, SS

[Mike Sixel]

13 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

They should probably fire their minor league coaches if they're that bad.

They tried to improve his swing. It didn't work. You don't fire someone for trying to make someone better. It seems to be working for a ton of AA players......sometimes things don't work. Then you adjust your approach with that player. 

[DJL44]

2 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

They tried to improve his swing. It didn't work. You don't fire someone for trying to make someone better. It seems to be working for a ton of AA players......sometimes things don't work. Then you adjust your approach with that player. 

If the coach is really so bad that "don't ever talk to Austin Martin" is the advice then they should fire the coach. If they can't trust a coach to make adjustments for different players then what good are they?

I think posters are overreacting with their "leave him alone" advice. Martin's game is not good enough yet to be thinking he should be left alone without any improvement. Hell, Aaron Judge's game isn't good enough to be left completely alone.

[jmlease1]

I'm definitely still a fan of Martin, and I hope that he can have a good, healthy season this year to show what he can bring to the table. I like having him in AAA and while I think it's unlikely he'll play much SS in MLB, this isn't a case of a player not having a position: he'd probably be above average at least at 2B, above average in CF, and with his range a plus defender in LF. (not sure how well his arm plays at 3B, but he'd likely field the position well?) he could legitimately be a super-utility player that can cover anywhere except SS & C.

We'll see where he lands as a hitter. He'll definitely make a lot of contact, draw some walks, and get hit by pitches, so the on-base % will be good...can it be great? It could be. If it's not, then it would help a lot if he shows some gap power to prop that slugging up. He doesn't need to hit a ton of HRs to succeed, but if he collects enough doubles and triples with that speed to land consistently in the .380-.400 range then it'll be enough. Power development is often the last tool to come along, so he might be able to keep inching it up.

 

[Mike Sixel]

4 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

If the coach is really so bad that "don't ever talk to Austin Martin" is the advice then they should fire the coach. If they can't trust a coach to make adjustments for different players then what good are they?

I think posters are overreacting with their "leave him alone" advice. Martin's game is not good enough yet to be thinking he should be left alone without any improvement. Hell, Aaron Judge's game isn't good enough to be left completely alone.

A bunch of people on a website say that.....I doubt the Twins say that. And, as you say, it is bad advice to the coach. I'm not sure what your argument is?

[Fatbat]

We need more guys with .400+OBP. Stop trying to change every guy into 30+hr!

[Rosterman]

Forget the power. If it comes, a bonus.

The guy is only two seasons in minor league play, coming from collegiate ball. And, right now, he is a man without a position.

The Twins have to make some hard decisions. Do they start Lewis at shot when he comes back, or rotate between short and the outfield. It would be nice to have a decent backup at short, at least for this season, if Correa goes down.

Maybe you make that Martin's primary position. Bat him leadoff. See if he gets on base. Runs the bases. Then adapt to the outfield if push comes to shove. He does not have to be added to the 40-man roster until after the 2024 season. So he can be a work in progress.

Do you start Julien as the regular second baseman in this case. Similar, maybe, to Martin in speed on the basepaths. Who is going to lose out in the quest to make it to the majors as a hitter with speed? (Also, we have Michael Helman in the mix as a guy who can play multiple positions and also run a bit - will the Twins keep him and play him - where - at AAA.

What will the Twins outfield look like in 2024 or 2025. Is Wallner a sure bet - and a betetr fielder? What to do longterm with Celestino. Is Larnach and Kirilloff both keepers. And who are the "new" guys who should explode for the Twins come 2026 and beyond!?!

 

Man, from the top spot to the 10th spot as a prospect. That is a BIG change!

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, Rosterman said:

Forget the power. If it comes, a bonus.

The guy is only two seasons in minor league play, coming from collegiate ball. And, right now, he is a man without a position.

The Twins have to make some hard decisions. Do they start Lewis at shot when he comes back, or rotate between short and the outfield. It would be nice to have a decent backup at short, at least for this season, if Correa goes down.

Maybe you make that Martin's primary position. Bat him leadoff. See if he gets on base. Runs the bases. Then adapt to the outfield if push comes to shove. He does not have to be added to the 40-man roster until after the 2024 season. So he can be a work in progress.

Do you start Julien as the regular second baseman in this case. Similar, maybe, to Martin in speed on the basepaths. Who is going to lose out in the quest to make it to the majors as a hitter with speed? (Also, we have Michael Helman in the mix as a guy who can play multiple positions and also run a bit - will the Twins keep him and play him - where - at AAA.

What will the Twins outfield look like in 2024 or 2025. Is Wallner a sure bet - and a betetr fielder? What to do longterm with Celestino. Is Larnach and Kirilloff both keepers. And who are the "new" guys who should explode for the Twins come 2026 and beyond!?!

 

Man, from the top spot to the 10th spot as a prospect. That is a BIG change!

Farmer is the backup SS this year.....I admit not knowing who it is after that. I think any of Lewis/Lee/someone else could play there 20-40 games a year if needed, even if their primary position was elsewhere. I'd guess, not knowing, they would be like Polanco was defensively, fine given their O.

I think Lewis should be in CF and RF going forward (as I think Lee is your 3B going forward). 

I'd put Martin in LF/CF/2B. I'd put Julien at 2B/1B, I think. 

Given Martin's speed, it would be great to have him around for the 10th inning.....

[Doctor Gast]

3 hours ago, John Mickelson said:

Maybe getting away from his minor league hitting coach helped him in Fall league. 😄

Welcome John to TD. Martin was fine until they started to tinker with his swing, beginning of '22 , it really affected his ability to make contact. Towards the end of the '22 season, he went back to his old swing & he made a surge. He entered AFL with a bang & showed some pop. He'll continue to find his own way much like Buxton & Lewis & will flourish.

Martin is an athletic player that can play most anywhere (although IMO is overstretched at SS) , which is a very valuable. An OB machine, whose not afraid to get hit (which I'd advise against because I'd hate to see him get hurt or have his rhythm thrown off). He's a terror on the bases which is exciting to see. As he develops I can see him  gain some surprising pop. 

I can see him carry that AFL momentum into  AAA, which will raise his stock considerably. Because he's not on the 40 man, there's no hurry bring him up unless things really blow up. Julien should that leap before him unless there's a need before Lewis is ready.

His RH bat might come in handy in the OF next year. Because of his high versatility, I'd like hold onto him. 

 

[adorduan]

I'd be more than happy with an Arraez type hitter with better knees and better defense..

[chpettit19]

41 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

A bunch of people on a website say that.....I doubt the Twins say that. And, as you say, it is bad advice to the coach. I'm not sure what your argument is?

I think the argument is against the people on the website. It's the same stance I have. I mean this thread is full of people literally arguing that the Twins should straight up leave Martin alone and make no attempt to have his power increased. It's a terrible argument that suggests the Twins should never try to improve players. It seems to come from a place of people on this site putting people in the Arraez bucket or Sano bucket. Either you're high BA/OBP and no power or you're high power and low BA/OBP. That's a false narrative.

The Twins weren't trying to turn Martin into a power hitter at the expense of his BA/OBP. They were trying to add power to his BA/OBP. Literally every team does this with literally every hitter. Sometimes it works. Sometimes it doesn't. But "leave him alone" is a terrible argument. I don't think the Twins are saying that, and I don't think Martin is saying it. But people here are and that's what the argument is.

[IA Bean Counter]

This is a year for Martin to prove his skills.  To me he is a .280 to .300 hitter and a .400 OBP player if he can continue to progress and make it to the big leagues.  Personally I think of last year as a 1 off year for him.  I think he needs good health and confidence, and I think he finally started gaining that confidence towards the end of last year and it rolled into fall ball.   With his speed I think he will be a good asset in the outfield.  I don't think his defense will make it at SS,  possibly 2nd,  but might as well use the wheels in the OF.   

[Nashvilletwin]

3 hours ago, bird said:

Yeah, I like the idea of having him concentrate on becoming a decent left fielder and an adequate fill-in in CF. Lewis, Correa, Lee, and Kirilloff might end up being a very solid infield.

Don’t forget Miranda 

[Nashvilletwin]

I get the desire by the FO not to waste their SP strategy this year. But I’m so more interested in seeing the new young core of Miranda, Kiriloff, Larnach, Gordon, Julien, Martin, Wallner, Lee, Lewis and Rodriguez develop with Correa and Buxton.  I really am so over Kepler and maybe even Polanco depending how he does this season,  I don’t care at all to watch Gallo, Farmer and Taylor per se - I’m not interested in developing any emotional connection to them.

I just hope they give Martin (and Julien and Wallner a chance). Sadly, I’m not convinced they will.  

[strumdatjag]

4 hours ago, DJL44 said:

No, doubles are better because they are more likely to drive in the runner than a single.

OK - Good point.  Let’s bat Austin Martin. lead-off.  By the way, if he makes it to the big leagues, he could have the coolest car name in the history of the Twins - Almost an Aston Martin with a little Austin-Healey mixed in. 

[Cris E]

42 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

I get the desire by the FO not to waste their SP strategy this year. But I’m so more interested in seeing the new young core of Miranda, Kiriloff, Larnach, Gordon, Julien, Martin, Wallner, Lee, Lewis and Rodriguez develop with Correa and Buxton.  I really am so over Kepler and maybe even Polanco depending how he does this season,  I don’t care at all to watch Gallo, Farmer and Taylor per se - I’m not interested in developing any emotional connection to them.

I just hope they give Martin (and Julien and Wallner a chance). Sadly, I’m not convinced they will.  

I can't speak to your emotional attachments as they aren't supposed to bend to persuasion, but Farmer and Taylor were signed as backups. Well Farmer was placeholding the starting SS job for a few weeks, but he was never intended to hold it long. And Gallo is only here on a one year deal until we find out which of the kids can play at this level. When he was signed they only had Gordon, Buxton and Kepler with any real OF experience (excluding filler like Cave, Garlick et al) and none of them was a lock to be 500 AB of above average performance. They needed another real OF, and even after signing Gallo trading Kepler would be premised on having one of the kids emerge into a real major league starter as a rookie. That's not a given which is why they went another step down that road and picked up Taylor too. We just weren't that deep in proven fielders last November. 

 

 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

Welcome John to TD. Martin was fine until they started to tinker with his swing, beginning of '22 , it really affected his ability to make contact. Towards the end of the '22 season, he went back to his old swing & he made a surge. He entered AFL with a bang & showed some pop. He'll continue to find his own way much like Buxton & Lewis & will flourish.

Is this true or just hearsay? I'd like to see video of before, during and after.

[chpettit19]

10 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Is this true or just hearsay? I'd like to see video of before, during and after.

Really, really, really basic look at things done very quickly, but here's pics of his setup at Vandy, when he first got to the Twins, and in the AFL:

[Cris E]

Honestly that last one looks different from the first two, with the hands so different and the left foot overloaded much more. 

EDIT: Maybe it was the hair that affected him early in the year. That's quite a mane in that middle pic.

[DJL44]

11 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Really, really, really basic look at things done very quickly, but here's pics of his setup at Vandy, when he first got to the Twins, and in the AFL:

The first two look alike, the third one is very different, heel rotation and bat angle.

[Nashvilletwin]

21 minutes ago, Cris E said:

I can't speak to your emotional attachments as they aren't supposed to bend to persuasion, but Farmer and Taylor were signed as backups. Well Farmer was placeholding the starting SS job for a few weeks, but he was never intended to hold it long. And Gallo is only here on a one year deal until we find out which of the kids can play at this level. When he was signed they only had Gordon, Buxton and Kepler with any real OF experience (excluding filler like Cave, Garlick et al) and none of them was a lock to be 500 AB of above average performance. They needed another real OF, and even after signing Gallo trading Kepler would be premised on having one of the kids emerge into a real major league starter as a rookie. That's not a given which is why they went another step down that road and picked up Taylor too. We just weren't that deep in proven fielders last November. 

 

 

Let’s just hope they get a chance….I just don’t want this ownership/FO/coaching staff to delude themselves into thinking this team is a contender if it’s not, while forgoing the opportunity to invest the necessary innings and ABs to both see what we have and develop the young talent.

As I’ve written in several posts - I watched 150+ games last year and would make every effort to catch every Arraez AB. And I’d put down what I was doing to watch him and Buxton. You can knock “emotional attachments”, but, besides winning, that’s basically the number one thing that puts butts in the seats (especially with a front running fan base like Minnesota). If this team does not win and puts Gallo, Kepler and Taylor in the OF when Buxton is not playing, we won’t draw 1.5MM fans and we will delay the transition to the new core. Commercially, both in the near and mid-term, that will be a bad outcome.

I hope we see Martin and others this year and start building some excitement into our future as opposed to investing in one year meh rentals and more tenured Twins players who have plateaued or are descending.  

 

[chpettit19]

24 minutes ago, Cris E said:

Honestly that last one looks different from the first two, with the hands so different and the left foot overloaded much more. 

EDIT: Maybe it was the hair that affected him early in the year. That's quite a mane in that middle pic.

17 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

The first two look alike, the third one is very different, heel rotation and bat angle.

Definitely agree the AFL picture is a very different stance. Now, obviously much more goes into his swing mechanics, etc. than his stance, but I'm not going to take the time to breakdown video and send snippets of them from different times of his career. But when it comes to the talk of the Twins tinkering with his swing, it looks to me like his AFL swing that produced the desired results was not the same as his Vandy swing so it could be argued that the Twins actually did fix him in some way.

I think his wrist feeling better would also be a big part of it, though. I remember Keith Law being really concerned about him going into last season because he'd gotten so passive and his swing got so "slappy" (due to a number of mechanical concerns) that he didn't know that he'd ever be able to hit the ball with real authority, and he thought his wrist injury had lead him down that path. Perhaps once the wrist was feeling better he took time during his late season missed game situation to make a few adjustments and that's what we saw in the AFL. No idea if those were changes the Twins pushed for or he just did it on his own, though.

I also can not confirm nor deny the hair being the cause of all his struggles 😄

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Welcome John to TD. Martin was fine until they started to tinker with his swing, beginning of '22 , it really affected his ability to make contact. Towards the end of the '22 season, he went back to his old swing & he made a surge. He entered AFL with a bang & showed some pop. He'll continue to find his own way much like Buxton & Lewis & will flourish.

 

I'm curious about Lewis being mentioned here. Are there reports that Lewis changed his swing without the help of Twins staff? I know there were plenty of reports about Buxton finally saying "f it" in the offseason and going back to his old HS swing, but Lewis had a big leg kick in HS that the Twins actually didn't mess with early. Weren't the reports that Lewis was putting in a ton of work with the Twins staff at the alternate site in 2020 and that's where those swing changes came from? And he did all his rehab at the Twins facility so I'd think Twins staff had a hand in the toe-tap swing changes we saw last year. But it is entirely possible that I just missed some reports about him doing things his own way so I'm curious if you have some info on that.

[Cris E]

@Nashvilletwin  I think winning gets butts in seats more than losing with style, but losing with style is better than losing ugly. Last year was ugly with a Capital Punishment U, and this is a new year with new possibilities. If we're winning then Rocco is going to do Rocco things, but if things fall apart I do believe they'll sell vets and go young. They have a lot of guys in the last year of their deal and could move many if the sun sets by July 20.  

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

I'm curious about Lewis being mentioned here. Are there reports that Lewis changed his swing without the help of Twins staff? I know there were plenty of reports about Buxton finally saying "f it" in the offseason and going back to his old HS swing, but Lewis had a big leg kick in HS that the Twins actually didn't mess with early. Weren't the reports that Lewis was putting in a ton of work with the Twins staff at the alternate site in 2020 and that's where those swing changes came from? And he did all his rehab at the Twins facility so I'd think Twins staff had a hand in the toe-tap swing changes we saw last year. But it is entirely possible that I just missed some reports about him doing things his own way so I'm curious if you have some info on that.

I believe I've read it in the Athletic but even though I've subscribed I can't get access to these old Athletic articles, I'm sorry I can't come up with any info. Here is an article which had some videos of him having success in AFL where he resorted back to the high leg kick

https://www.mlb.com/news/royce-lewis-arizona-fall-league-homer-great-catch

What I've read or maybe heard from an interview that he changed his swing to the toe-tap swing because his old swing was hurting his knee. He developed that swing during the off season while recuperating. I have no idea if the Twin staff suggested it or he came up with it all by himself. Either way that's the swing that he wanted to experiment with and it worked.

 

[Dman]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Really, really, really basic look at things done very quickly, but here's pics of his setup at Vandy, when he first got to the Twins, and in the AFL:

 

 

 

That first pic looks like a more open stance and with the bat close that looks like a good short to the ball all fields approach to my amateur eye.  The second looks just a little more closed but not that much different to me.  I can't say I have ever seen the stance in the third picture. It almost looks like he is cocking that foot back to make sure his hips gain some whip and the bat is further back so it seems like that would be more geared toward more power but again I am not a professional so just my personal questioning observations. 

Maybe we will see more power out of Martin in the future but to this point he has been more of an all fields slap hitter with a good eye at the plate.  He hasn't cracked .400 slugging in full season ball yet but a power breakout would be nice.  Still I am fine if he gets on base at his fairly normal .400 clip as well.  We have seen how valuable that can be as well.

[James]

4 hours ago, Fatbat said:

We need more guys with .400+OBP. Stop trying to change every guy into 30+hr!

I doubt they're trying to get 30hrs out of him.  Probably more like 10hr rather than 0-2.  

Also, of course we need more guys with .400+ OBP, but that is very rare.  There were 6 players in the MLB that achieved that in 2022 (none of them were on the Twins).  Arraez lead the team in OBP at .375 with Correa coming in .366. 

[Cris E]

I don't care about HR if he can get his doubles and triples up. Line drives to the wall will keep me very happy until he learns to drive the ball with a little more elevation later in life. 

[wsnydes]

I like the idea of letting him hit for average and run like crazy on the bases and play him at 2B.  Dealing Polanco makes quite a bit of sense to me, but I want to see that they've got someone waiting in the wings.

It would be so much fun watching Buxton and Martin running at will on opposing pitchers. 

[D.C Twins]

5 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I think the argument is against the people on the website. It's the same stance I have. I mean this thread is full of people literally arguing that the Twins should straight up leave Martin alone and make no attempt to have his power increased. It's a terrible argument that suggests the Twins should never try to improve players. It seems to come from a place of people on this site putting people in the Arraez bucket or Sano bucket. Either you're high BA/OBP and no power or you're high power and low BA/OBP. That's a false narrative.

The Twins weren't trying to turn Martin into a power hitter at the expense of his BA/OBP. They were trying to add power to his BA/OBP. Literally every team does this with literally every hitter. Sometimes it works. Sometimes it doesn't. But "leave him alone" is a terrible argument. I don't think the Twins are saying that, and I don't think Martin is saying it. But people here are and that's what the argument is.

Sometimes adjustments make things worse.

Not all players will respond positively to changes intended to increase power. 

When the player doesn't respond positively, it is important to stop pounding the square peg into the round cylinder. 

Knowing when to pull back is indeed part of, wait for it, wait for it..... GOOD COACHING!

Good coaches don't implement a once size fits all strategy. Good coaches have the confidence to admit when their initial plan is not working as intended. Good coaches know when to adjust their strategy. 

Martin regressed when the coaches tinkered to improve his power

It makes good sense to back off those adjustments.

Buxton was a fantastic example of when sometimes less is more.

[D.C Twins]

3 hours ago, Cris E said:

Honestly that last one looks different from the first two, with the hands so different and the left foot overloaded much more. 

EDIT: Maybe it was the hair that affected him early in the year. That's quite a mane in that middle pic.

Looks like his hips are more rotated (loaded) and lead elbow up/bat back all as an effort for more efficient power generation.