Twins Daily 2023 Top Prospects: #10 Austin Martin, SS

[Ted Schwerzler]

Now entering the top 10 and counting down the best of Minnesota’s prospects, we begin with a player that was acquired by the organization, rather than drafted.

 

Image courtesy of Ed Bailey, Wichita Wind Surge

Age: 23 (DOB: 3/23/1999)
2022 Stats (AA): 406 PA, 241/.367/.316, 2 HR, 35 RBI, 35 SB
ETA: 2023
2022 Ranking: 1

National Top 100 Rankings

BA: NR | MLB: NR | ATH: NR | BP: NR

What's To Like?
Austin Martin was brought into the Minnesota Twins organization, along with Simeon Woods Richardson, when the front office traded Jose Berrios to the Toronto Blue Jays. It was Martin that was the headliner of that package, and that’s not a surprise given he was taken 5th overall in the 2020 Major League Baseball draft.

 

Martin debuted in the Twins system last year playing just under 40 games at Double-A Wichita. He brought an .807 OPS from the Blue Jays stems, and finished the year with a .779 OPS for the Wind Surge. It was clear that Martin’s best offensive skills included a strong on-base ability, and utilizing significant speed on the basepaths.

Sent back to Double-A in 2022, Martin struggled. His 90 games resulted in just a .683 OPS and it was clear there was an emphasis being put on tapping into power. The Twins made adjustments to Martin’s swing in hopes of recording more doubles and home runs. That didn’t work, and the results spoke for themselves.

Martin then went to the Arizona Fall League and ended his season on a very high note. Putting together a .936 OPS across 21 games against the best prospects in baseball, there is still plenty of reason to believe he can be a big-league regular. Across the action in Arizona, he hit just one homer but racked up six doubles. The power probably isn’t ever going to come, but that could make his path to the big leagues more straightforward.

What's Left to Work On
It’s questionable at best as to whether Martin can remain at shortstop. He has played some second base and outfield however, and could morph into a guy that has utility all over the field. His speed plays well on the grass, and while his arm strength is nothing to write home about, it works at other positions.

With Minnesota having seen so many debuts a season ago, it’s entirely possible that Martin makes it to the big leagues this year. Pushing him to Triple-A St. Paul makes a good deal of sense, and allowing him to be an on-base machine while simplifying the approach could right the course in a big way. He had almost neutral strikeout to walk numbers last season, and slotting in as a traditional leadoff hitter makes a lot of sense.

After his 2022 Martin fell off all national prospect lists, but the year ahead could be a significant one for him. He’ll be 24-years-old in March, and going back to what made him so desirable out of Vanderbilt may be enough to trend his stock back upwards. It’s difficult to see a perennial All-Star or high ceiling type of talent with the power potential so limited, but there can be a regular in this type of profile and that should make the Twins happy.

What's Next

Depending on how the Twins roster shakes out with injury and performance this season, Martin could find himself contributing at second base behind Jorge Polanco. Maybe he debuts in a Nick Gordon utility type of role, and he could assume whatever playing time Kyle Farmer currently has ticketed for himself. No matter what, there is a multitude of ways in which Martin could factor into Rocco Baldelli's plans.

The sooner Martin begins to hit for average at Triple-A, and uses his on-base skills to generate runs, he'll be seen as a potential option for promotion. He's not yet on the 40-man roster, but a little juggling could certainly take care of that. Assuming the organization has all but moved on from forcing him into power potential, Martin is very close to a finished product.

Previous Rankings
Honorable Mentions
Prospects 21-30
Prospects 16-20
Prospects 11-15

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[mikelink45]

I hope he meets all the high expectations, but at this point he is not above Wallner for me.  I hope this is the year he proves me wrong. 

[RJA]

I always wonder why teams try to change a hitter's approach when what he has been doing has been working.  In this case, it reminds me of Buxton, and all of the attempts the Twins staff made to change his approach at the plate.  Finally, he just chucked all the advice except Oliva's--see ball, hit ball--and regained his confidence.  I suspect there are many success stories of players who changed their approach and were more successful, but sometimes I wonder if they outnumber those cases where attempted adjustments mess up players.  This kid is an on base machine (career .391), like Arraez, and like Arraez, will likely never hit with power.  I don't think that is a horrible thing.  We need contact hitters as well as the Joey Gallo's of the world.  I would vote for letting the kid play his style at St. Paul and see what happens.  I think it will be a good result.

[Dman]

He could be a sort of Arraez type player with speed.  A tough out who can take walks and makes contact as he only struck out at a 13% Clip.  For teams looking for contact hitters along with working counts he is rock solid there.  He also has been able to steal bases so his speed plays as well.

He needs a good year at the plate as his value is now tied up in OBP IMO.  Still we all know what a catalyst Arraez could be and while the current trend is power we are starting to see cracks in that line of thinking as contact seems to be making a comeback.  

He is a nice piece of the puzzle if he can put things together and just excel at what he does well which is get on base.

[DJL44]

Second base would be nice, it would let them trade Polanco. I'm pretty sure he can step into the outfield and play wherever, and he has a RH bat that complements the roster nicely. If he's going to get reps at 2B this season they need to move Julien to 1B (his likely professional position).

Looking at his second set of swings I can see why they wanted to adjust it. He overstrides and gives up his weight transfer before the ball arrives, then slashes at it with quick hands. The first swing with the Wind Surge uniform is a much better approach.

[awmonahan]

He seems like one of the better options, internally, to begin replacing Arraez's production. Hope he can put together a solid start to the season. 

[Trov]

Many are saying he will be like Arraez, but he is not that much like Arraez, other than both had high OBP. with little Slugging. The big difference is Martin can steal bases.  If he can get on base near a .400 clip or more, which he has done everywhere he has played but at AA last year, after Twins tried to get more power, he will have huge value near top of line up.  If he can steal at high percentage he can get on base and steal second, basically same as double if no one was on base.  Sure, adding some pop can be helpful, but not getting out and being able to steal bases is very helpful.  Do not forget Marin had an injury last year that made him miss some time.  When you look at what he did in September and Fall league, he is riding high, could it be SSS?  Sure, but hopefully it is something to build off and carry into this year. 

[strumdatjag]

13 minutes ago, Trov said:

Many are saying he will be like Arraez, but he is not that much like Arraez, other than both had high OBP. with little Slugging. The big difference is Martin can steal bases.  If he can get on base near a .400 clip or more, which he has done everywhere he has played but at AA last year, after Twins tried to get more power, he will have huge value near top of line up.  If he can steal at high percentage he can get on base and steal second, basically same as double if no one was on base.  Sure, adding some pop can be helpful, but not getting out and being able to steal bases is very helpful.  Do not forget Marin had an injury last year that made him miss some time.  When you look at what he did in September and Fall league, he is riding high, could it be SSS?  Sure, but hopefully it is something to build off and carry into this year. 

Actually, getting on first and stealing second is better than a double, because it  distracts the pitcher.    It’s worse to the extent that the runner is thrown out.  On base percentage still matters. 

[Karbo]

An Arraez with speed is a good thing IMO. Lets not forget how a guy with speed on 1st base can mess with a pitcher. Now factor in the larger bases and new throw over rule, and I acn see a very valuable player, So please Twins coaches, just let the guy hit. Forget about pushing him to change into a slugger. Square pegs into round holes usually just don't work!

[gman]

I look forward to seeing Martin in the lineup at St Paul this season, that should be a very strong lineup. Probably our strongest in years. Maybe late summer we can see him in the Twins lineup. He would be a very traditional leadoff hitter.

[mac098]

I've never understood the idea of attempting to change a player's swing to make him more of a power hitter. If he is hitting for AVG and its working, why try to change that? I would take a player that hits .275-.290 w/ a OBP of .360+ over a someone who hits .210 but hits 30 HR's a season. Yes, homeruns are exciting, but so is a player beating out an infield single. Then they steal 2nd and are driven in with a single to the OF. As a team, you need table setters for the big guys to do their damage. It's pretty hard to win games if you're relying on homeruns (ask the 2019 Twins about their playoffs that year). 

But I think this is a make it or break it year for the Martin. He definitely needs to show us that he belongs in MSP.

[terrydactyls]

The obsession with power appears to be hindering as many players as it helps.  Why would any team go after a player and then try to change him into a player he isn't?  Reminds me of when the Vikings gave up players and draft picks for the best I-back in the NFL and tried to turn him into a two-back player.  That sure turned out well (for Dallas).  Let Martin be himself and be satisfied with what he can bring to the team.

[Byrdman]

I honestly hope he figures it out as he is the most redundant player right now.  We don't need another Nick Gordon. I hope he hits, so we can trade him for a bullpen arm at the deadline. I know I sound harsh on this.

[4twinsJA]

Big year for Martin, needs to take a step forward. Looking at him physically, don't see much power potential. He is not very big. Will he develop into a Gordon type player, able to play all over the field?

[John Mickelson]

Maybe getting away from his minor league hitting coach helped him in Fall league. 😄

[Daniel Anderson]

I would like to see him bat leadoff every day in St. Paul and play left field. Instead of an Arraez comp I see his speed making his potential more like Stephen Kwan - high on base with lots of stolen bases and don't worry about the power.

[DJL44]

34 minutes ago, mac098 said:

I've never understood the idea of attempting to change a player's swing to make him more of a power hitter.

You've never understood player development and trying to create a successful major league hitter?

[DJL44]

46 minutes ago, strumdatjag said:

Actually, getting on first and stealing second is better than a double, because it  distracts the pitcher.    It’s worse to the extent that the runner is thrown out.  On base percentage still matters. 

No, doubles are better because they are more likely to drive in the runner than a single.

[chpettit19]

I'm a little confused on people's confusion about trying to get more power out of a guy. The idea isn't to turn a .270-.300 no power hitter into a .200-.230 30 HR guy. The idea is to turn a .270-.300 no power hitter into a .270-.300 guy with some power. It'd be doing the player a disservice if they didn't try to add more tools to his tool belt. It may not have worked with Martin and that's totally fine. Now you let him be the .270-.300 no power hitter and run with that. But taking a high contact guy and trying to add power is draft and development 101. It's what got him drafted #5 overall.

Many people on these boards were upset the Twins took Cavaco over Carroll. Carroll was a high average, no power bat with speed. Now he's a high average, with power bat with speed and he's a top 1 or 2 prospect in baseball. It doesn't work with everyone, but 1st round picks are supposed to be your top end talents. It's why we get upset about Sabato type picks. It's, if we're being honest, likely why Brooks Lee fell to 8. He's never going to be the athlete the hitters who went ahead of him will be, and likely won't add much power to his game. Adding tools is the entire idea of the minor leagues. Trying to add power made sense. Just didn't work as completely as they wanted. Although, a .482 slugging in the AFL isn't nothing. So maybe they did boost his power a little and that changes his outlook dramatically. If he slugs .430 in the bigs he's a borderline all star. A right handed Brandon Nimmo. If he slugs in the .300s he's a nice utility player. Not trying to get a little more power out of him would've been a shame.

[Seth Stohs]

I ranked him #11. But I could just as easily make a case for him at #5-12. 

The tools are still there... at least, if you believe hat he can hit for some average. I think his approach at the plate helps with that. Maybe the power doesn't show up and he's just an 7-10 homer guy, but if he's getting on-base, that's OK. 

Probably not a SS, but could play 3B, 2B, 1B, and all around the outfield, wherever the Twins may have a need. 

In organizations that don't already have guys like Lee and Lewis, the chances for Martin to  be an option at 3B and 2B would be higher. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

37 minutes ago, John Mickelson said:

Maybe getting away from his minor league hitting coach helped him in Fall league. 😄

Welcome to TD

[roger]

At #10, do you have him too high?  Or too low?  Hopefully, 2023 will answer those questions.

Add me to the list of those who would encourage the Twins: "If it ain't broke, don't fik it."  Like many of you, I see a ton of value from an Arraez like player, a player who has a ton of value without much or any power.  Add the fact that Martin has lots of speed, and we could (note I used the word could) have someone who becomes Luis +.

[puckstopper1]

1 hour ago, Trov said:

 The big difference is Martin can steal bases.  

Which unfortunately is a moot point with the current Twins manager.

[mikelink45]

1 hour ago, awmonahan said:

He seems like one of the better options, internally, to begin replacing Arraez's production. Hope he can put together a solid start to the season. 

I would bet on Julien first

 

[Otaknam]

1 hour ago, mac098 said:

I've never understood the idea of attempting to change a player's swing to make him more of a power hitter. If he is hitting for AVG and its working, why try to change that? I would take a player that hits .275-.290 w/ a OBP of .360+ over a someone who hits .210 but hits 30 HR's a season. Yes, homeruns are exciting, but so is a player beating out an infield single. Then they steal 2nd and are driven in with a single to the OF. As a team, you need table setters for the big guys to do their damage. It's pretty hard to win games if you're relying on homeruns (ask the 2019 Twins about their playoffs that year). 

But I think this is a make it or break it year for the Martin. He definitely needs to show us that he belongs in MSP.

Changing a hitting approach can unlock more power. A hitting coach should see if he can help the hitter to do that. Kirby Puckett went from no home runs in 1984 to 34 home runs two years later. But I still like the player like Arraez, who is an on base machine. Hopefully Martin can be an on base guy, with speed, and can hit with a little power too. 

[bird]

1 hour ago, Daniel Anderson said:

I would like to see him bat leadoff every day in St. Paul and play left field. Instead of an Arraez comp I see his speed making his potential more like Stephen Kwan - high on base with lots of stolen bases and don't worry about the power.

Yeah, I like the idea of having him concentrate on becoming a decent left fielder and an adequate fill-in in CF. Lewis, Correa, Lee, and Kirilloff might end up being a very solid infield.

[Mike Sixel]

30 minutes ago, puckstopper1 said:

Which unfortunately is a moot point with the current Twins manager.

Which player on last year's roster should have tried to steal more? If you aren't successful 80% of the time, you are giving up runs.

As for Martin, I'm still a believer. However, he didn't face anywhere near good pitching in the AFL. Most analysts compare the pitching there to AA or lower. 

[Cris E]

You can try to mess with the swing, but if it isn't working (or the guy resists) then back off and work with what he's got.  And in Martin's case maybe he spends time with a baserunning guru so he can identify more leg doubles where he takes advantage of inattentive outfielders. Buxton makes defenses play hard every time he's up, and Martin should be doing the same thing. I think his role should be in the OF and an emergency infielder, replacing Nick Gordon for 2024 or even late this year. I could see Nick moving at the deadline if we need something. 

[D.C Twins]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Which player on last year's roster should have tried to steal more? If you aren't successful 80% of the time, you are giving up runs.

As for Martin, I'm still a believer. However, he didn't face anywhere near good pitching in the AFL. Most analysts compare the pitching there to AA or lower. 

This! (beat me to it). Great that he excelled in AFL but need to temper excitement due to pitching quality (look at the Twins pitchers sent). 

That said, the coaches need to get out of his way this year and let him play. No other player is in a bigger make or break year in my opinion. He could be back as a top 3 prospect (graduated to MLB) or completely off the list next year.

It's all on the table. Will be fascinating to watch (but let him dictate his success or failure on his own terms this year please)

[DJL44]

6 minutes ago, D.C Twins said:

the coaches need to get out of his way this year and let him play

They should probably fire their minor league coaches if they're that bad.