Analyzing Carlos Correa's Current and Future Hall of Fame Case

[Cody Christie]

Carlos Correa is one of baseball's best two-way players and may be on a path to Cooperstown. Where does he currently rank among Hall of Fame players, and what can he do during his Twins tenure to help his case?

Image courtesy of Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

There are multiple ways to examine a player's Hall of Fame credentials. Traditionally, voters looked at a player's cumulative stats like hits, home runs, and RBI, but the voting process has continued to evolve. Many sabermetric statistics have helped to build the case of more modern players, including Scott Rolen, who was elected last week. Offensive numbers can be the starting point of a player's Hall of Fame case, but defensive metrics can paint a fuller picture of some of baseball's best players. 

JAWS, a system created by Jay Jaffe, is another way to examine a player's HOF credentials. A player's JAWS is their career WAR averaged with their 7-year peak WAR. This method helps to compare players currently elected to the Hall of Fame with those that have yet to be elected. Some positions have fewer elected players, which can skew the data set. Baseball Reference has also added Negro League players to the rankings, but data is incomplete for these players. 

Carlos Correa currently ranks as the 35th-best shortstop, according to JAWS. Four Hall of Fame players rank near Correa in the 30-38 range of JAWS rankings, so he has already played up to a Hall of Fame standard. Correa's postseason resume also helps his credentials because he has posted an .849 OPS in 79 playoff games. He has the start of a Hall of Fame career, but he will need to continue to perform in the years ahead. 

Modern players like Jimmy Rollins (32), Miguel Tejada (29), Troy Tulowitzki (27), and Nomar Garciaparra (25) all rank ahead of Correa, according to JAWS. It seems unlikely that any of those players will be elected to Cooperstown, so Correa must move up the rankings during his Twins' tenure. There are currently 26 elected shortstops, which is tied for the second most for any position. Correa must move into the top 20 to solidify his Hall of Fame case. 

Adding to his career WAR will be one of the best ways for Correa to build his Hall of Fame case. He has averaged 5.88 WAR in seasons where he's played more than 100 games. This total includes three seasons where he posted a 6.7 WAR or higher and a 5.4 WAR in his first Twins season. If he has four more seasons averaging a 5.0 WAR, he will move his career WAR to 61.5. That WAR total would place him among the top 20 shortstops of all time. 

Correa provides tremendous defensive value, which will also be part of his Hall of Fame resume. He's posted a 129 OPS+ for his career, including a 140 OPS+ during the 2022 season. These are outstanding totals, but he will fare poorly with traditional Hall of Fame counting statistics like hits and home runs. He needs to continue to play above-average defense at shortstop to have a case similar to Scott Rolen, who was elected to Cooperstown last week. Rolen posted a 122 OPS+ for his career while being known for his strong defense. Correa can hope for similar results. 

Minnesota hopes Correa averages more than a 5.0 WAR in the early years of his six-year contract, and there is hope he can fulfill the four team options. He played seven years with the Astros, but his Twins tenure can cover up to 11 seasons. Correa's ankle became a focus of his free agency saga, so he must prove he can stay healthy for the contract's life. For better or for worse, the Twins' success over the next decade is tied to the health of Correa and Byron Buxton. 

Correa's current trajectory has him on a path to Cooperstown. His long-term legacy is tied to the Twins and what he accomplishes over the next decade. Can he put himself in the conversation as one of baseball's all-time best shortstops? Twins fans get the opportunity to watch him build his Hall of Fame resume, which shouldn't be taken for granted.

Do you think Correa will make the Hall of Fame? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

 

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[rwilfong86]

There is also the cheating controversy that shadows him, we will see if anyone else involved e.g. Beltran and Altuve, get in.

[Cris E]

He's got a ring, so making a showing in the MVP voting would be the other way to burnish the image.  But for Correa the main point is staying on the field and playing more games.  He's got 888 games at SS, so he'll need a pile more. Robin Yount only reached 1400, but he put in ten more excellent years in CF. Ernie Banks only played 1100 at SS (and 1200 at 1B) but he hit a million HR so he's in a different category. Most of the rest of the SS were around 2000 games or more, so he's got to hit a ton more or play another five years at SS before he heads somewhere slower to stack up the counting stats. All he can do is do his prep, play the games, stay close with the trainers and hope for the best. He's not unique enough to pull a Mauer and be at first by age 30. 

[Craig Arko]

This seems wildly premature. 

[wsnydes]

He's not even 29 yet!  He could play until he's 45 and become a no doubt first ballot guy or blow out his "suspect" ankle tomorrow and never play again.  

Can we just enjoy his presence and talk about the end of his career later?  

[EGFTShaw]

59 minutes ago, wsnydes said:

He's not even 29 yet!  He could play until he's 45 and become a no doubt first ballot guy or blow out his "suspect" ankle tomorrow and never play again.  

Can we just enjoy his presence and talk about the end of his career later?  

LOL - not wrong, but what else can we do in the dead of winter before Spring Training starts??? 🤷‍♂️😉😁

[wsnydes]

56 minutes ago, EGFTShaw said:

LOL - not wrong, but what else can we do in the dead of winter before Spring Training starts??? 🤷‍♂️😉😁

Surely there's another "Player X can NOT be traded" or Luis Arraez thread to be hashed over for another couple of weeks, no?! 😉

[TwinsChupacabra]

Do you mean the Cheating Hall of Fame? 

[h2oface]

Maybe there will be, as there should be, an actual hall that would be the Hall of Shame in the Hall of Fame. Guys like Pete Rose, Shoeless Joe, Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa, Mark McGwire, A-Roid, etc...... could and should all be in the Hall of Fame in that special Hall of Shame. They are part of baseball, and were great players, and most of the steroid clan were good enough already without the boosted stats. Correa would fit in the Hall of Shame deservedly. Correa can never shed that. It is part of his story and history will remember, even if Cody already forgot. He still has a ways to go to get there, though, just on his performance. He will need to stay potent for several more years to make it.

[Eris]

For HoF voting, he will be compared to his contemporaries. Francisco Lindor is clearly the best.  Correa is grouped with Trea Turner and Xander Bogaerts. 
 

Therefore it is doubtful that he makes it.   Unless, perhaps, Correa delivers 2 or 3 World Series titles for the Twins while earning MVP honors along the way.   Even then, he will still be compared to Lindor for HoF voting. 
 

 

[Doctor Gast]

I'm sure pulling for Correa as a Twin to put up the #s & advancing well in the PS. It'd be great to see another Twin in the HOF. Hope both Mauer & Correa be able to make it 1st ballad.

[wsnydes]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

I'm sure pulling for Correa as a Twin to put up the #s & advancing well in the PS. It'd be great to see another Twin in the HOF. Hope both Mauer & Correa be able to make it 1st ballad.

HoF voters have a hard enough time with baseball, why complicate things with music?  😁

I agree though.  It would be cool to see both get in quickly.

[theBOMisthebomb]

13 hours ago, EGFTShaw said:

LOL - not wrong, but what else can we do in the dead of winter before Spring Training starts??? 🤷‍♂️😉😁

Yes, this is perfect dead of winter reading. Better days are ahead, spring training starts in less than two weeks.

I've been pondering whether C4 would enter the HOF with a Twins or Astros cap. 

[MarcF]

He's an arrogant cheater to begin with. He isn't even 30 yet, and his ankle could very well lead to a much shorter career. And with reduced production caused by it. The Twins signed him again out of desperation, while better, smarter teams and organizations wouldn't touch the guy after his medical exam.

Additionally, he had a very good last season and couldn't even help get the Twins to .500. He doesn't make things happen like other HOFers do. He plays solid defense and is an above average hitter. But a superstar? I think not.

Since this story is incredibly premature, I'm wondering who's next on the HOF possibles list? Max Kepler? Let's stick to 2023 and see if this team can even win the division, which is once again set up to be the weakest in all of baseball. Not having Arraez is going to be far more consequential than bringing back Carlos. Bad moves.

[bloggymcbloggerson]

i'm not apt to think too much about this when his ankle may or may not be an overripe banana. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I agree that this is an early point to be considering his HOF case, but this is when the really great players start to separate themselves from their peers.  There are lots of players who are on a “HOF Trajectory” when they are 26 and have a couple of exciting years, but their candidacy starts to fade when they can’t sustain the production and/or Father Time or injury steps in to intervene.   Sometimes when that happens, the thought that we considered them HOF material becomes laughable (HOF’ers Kerry Wood or Mark Prior anyone?). 

I think that Correa has a very strong foundation to his case at this point.  If he continues to put up 5 WAR seasons for the next 5 or 6 years, his case becomes very strong.  An added MVP and/or World Series title will add to the mix considerably.  If he is in the top 35 before he hits 30 years old, he only moves up from here.  Since his game isn’t built on speed, he may age better than people think and could put himself in position for election to the Hall.  

As an added bonus, if he has those kinds of seasons in the next 5 or 6 years, the Twins will benefit greatly.  I don’t know if that will translate into WS appearances, but it is certainly something to hope for.

[mnfireman]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/mlb/doctor-declares-carlos-correa-s-ankle-worst-he-s-ever-seen/ar-AA176Tn3?ocid=winp1taskbar&cvid=f8359faa947d4108c6c02feac7dcd118&rc=1

Second article I've seen about this, thought the first one might have been an attempt at humor. Maybe that slide last September loosened something up in the plate.

[EGFTShaw]

And there is nothing like the dead of winter MN sarcastic sense of humor... 😁😁

There is a ton of interesting things to see come out of spring training.

• pitching rotation
• Bull Pen members
• Outfield
• Infield is mostly set (depending on AK-47's health)
• batting order

My special wish list:

• hitting instructor and calm press scrutiny leads Gallo to hit .225 BA.
• Buxton's top-notch backup relieves the pressure of playing CF every day and he plays 140 games, generates over 10WAR and leads the MVP voting.
• Ryan takes another step forward.
• Miranda proves to be an average to plus 3B and hits 25HRs.
• Mahle, Gray and Maeda are all healthy and along with Lopez and Ryan we have 5 pitchers with an ERA below 3.50 and 2 below 3.0
• Duran spot starts and pitches a no hitter...in the WS. 😁
• ok, this last one is full of MN hope and bourbon.

[h2oface]

8 hours ago, mnfireman said:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/mlb/doctor-declares-carlos-correa-s-ankle-worst-he-s-ever-seen/ar-AA176Tn3?ocid=winp1taskbar&cvid=f8359faa947d4108c6c02feac7dcd118&rc=1

Second article I've seen about this, thought the first one might have been an attempt at humor. Maybe that slide last September loosened something up in the plate.

No more Yikes in the likes. This is a double YIKES!

[RedLeg44]

One of the discussion bullet points when HOF debates are had regularly includes All-Star selections. 

I don’t know how much weight it carries with voters when they are checking ballot boxes, but in a 60 sec spot on MLB network it seems to.

With the close of free agency this winter I think C4 has put him self in a good position to increase the number of times he has been an All-Star. All the other top short stops signed in the NL.

According to MLB networks “Shredder” he is the best SS in the AL, 2nd in all of baseball. His next closest league challenger just signed in the NL for the rest of there career. Seager and Bichette would be his closest remaining AL competition right now, and he really just needs to better than one of them.

It isn’t to much of a stretch to think that he could secure 2 selections to the mid summer classic in the next 4 years. Which would double his selection total thus far in his career. Perhaps even 4 out of the first 6 years in his current contract.

Selections set aside, being at the forefront of a discussion on the best player in the league at any position does have value when securing one’s legacy. Especially when it will likely cover a lengthy period of time.

But, ultimately it all comes down to health and maintaining performance.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 minute ago, RedLeg44 said:

One of the discussion bullet points when HOF debates are had regularly includes All-Star selections. 

I don’t know how much weight it carries with voters when they are checking ballot boxes, but in a 60 sec spot on MLB network it seems to.

With the close of free agency this winter I think C4 has put him self in a good position to increase the number of times he has been an All-Star. All the other top short stops signed in the NL.

According to MLB networks “Shredder” he is the best SS in the AL, 2nd in all of baseball. His next closest league challenger just signed in the NL for the rest of there career. Seager and Bichette would be his closest remaining AL competition right now, and he really just needs to better than one of them.

It isn’t to much of a stretch to think that he could secure 2 selections to the mid summer classic in the next 4 years. Which would double his selection total thus far in his career. Perhaps even 4 out of the first 6 years in his current contract.

Selections set aside, being at the forefront of a discussion on the best player in the league at any position does have value when securing one’s legacy. Especially when it will likely cover a lengthy period of time.

But, ultimately it all comes down to health and maintaining performance.

Great post, welcome to Twins Daily!

[Fatbat]

Lets ask this question every year for the next 10 yrs and track how the answers change….

[theBOMisthebomb]

On 2/4/2023 at 6:18 AM, Eris said:

For HoF voting, he will be compared to his contemporaries. Francisco Lindor is clearly the best.  Correa is grouped with Trea Turner and Xander Bogaerts. 
 

Therefore it is doubtful that he makes it.   Unless, perhaps, Correa delivers 2 or 3 World Series titles for the Twins while earning MVP honors along the way.   Even then, he will still be compared to Lindor for HoF voting. 
 

 

By which standards are you declaring Lindor clearly the best? I've always thought of Lindor as overrated due to his magnetic smile and interesting hair colors gaining favor and increasing his reputation beyond the actual numbers. 

[Melissa]

On 2/4/2023 at 11:38 AM, mnfireman said:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/mlb/doctor-declares-carlos-correa-s-ankle-worst-he-s-ever-seen/ar-AA176Tn3?ocid=winp1taskbar&cvid=f8359faa947d4108c6c02feac7dcd118&rc=1

Second article I've seen about this, thought the first one might have been an attempt at humor. Maybe that slide last September loosened something up in the plate.

I’ve seen this too - the original publication is classic clickbait. I wish we had a fuller context for this remark. Could be what it feels like to us, or could be misleading without seeing the whole quote.

[stringer bell]

On 2/3/2023 at 5:27 PM, Craig Arko said:

This seems wildly premature. 

Agree. Correa is still only 28 years old. Most likely just halfway through his time as a shortstop. The honors and awards are pretty limited--no MVP, only two AS nods--with only the one GG (also platinum that year) as an individual award. He's shown very good value, being very good in all facets of the game.

[Cody Christie]

On 2/3/2023 at 4:55 PM, rwilfong86 said:

There is also the cheating controversy that shadows him, we will see if anyone else involved e.g. Beltran and Altuve, get in.

Beltran did better than I though he would in his first turn on the ballot. Correa might get more support since he stood up and was the voice for the Astros in that first season following the scandal.