Health Has Changed Perception on Twins Youth

[Ted Schwerzler]

The Minnesota Twins suffered a second straight losing season last year, and it was certainly not what anyone hoped for coming out of a spring training that brought hope for a division title. Although there was plenty of poor play, nothing hampered Minnesota more than their health issues. 

 

Image courtesy of © Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Rewind a year or two and the likes of Trevor Larnach and Alex Kirilloff were seen as foundational pieces for Rocco Baldelli’s future lineup. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine had put together an organizational structure allowing such young talents to thrive, and the pair looked the part of potential superstars in the not-so-distant future.

When looking at the Minnesota lineup this year, plenty has been suggested about a team that struggled to score runs in 2022 and not a substantial amount of addition. What that unfortunately negates is a belief in youth that had once been there. Yes, Carlos Correa is back, and Joey Gallo could rebound. Christian Vazquez is probably better than Gary Sanchez, but the overhaul hasn’t been substantial. It shouldn’t need to be though, if the power pair can produce.

For the past couple of seasons, we have seen Kirilloff struggle with a wrist injury that has had him nowhere near his best. Playing in just 104 games at the big league level the past two seasons, Kirilloff has compiled a mediocre 94 OPS+. The on-base skills are hardly what they were in the minors, and his power production has been all but sapped. At least we have answers as to why.

It was clear at different points over the past two seasons that when Kirilloff’s wrist wasn’t nagging him, the bat was as expected. He’s not the prototypical slugger that sells out for power. When right, Kirilloff should possess the ability to be a .300 or better hitter while driving the ball to all fields. With his wrist nagging him, follow through at the point of contact was non-existent, and a rare double seemed to be as good as it gets.

Having undergone a much more aggressive wrist surgery late last season, the hope is that Kirilloff can put the injury behind him. He is trending well, and there has been no shutdown similar to the one we were made aware of last offseason. He’s hitting, working on baseball activities, and being anywhere near full health should strike fear in opposing pitchers on a daily basis.

For Larnach, the injury history is not as substantial. A core muscle surgery sidelined him for the remainder of last season following a strong start. He wound up playing in just 51 games, but tallied a 104 OPS+. The power spiked a bit more than we saw during his 2021 debut, and it was starting to look like he was settling in as a big leaguer.

Although the bat has long been lauded as his calling card, Larnach also fared incredibly well in the outfield. Team’s continued to run on him in left field, and he racked up assists while routinely nailing runners at the plate. Although not as athletic as some of Minnesota’s other outfield defenders, Larnach proved far more than just a bat-only type of player.

Having taken time to fully heal, the expectation should be that he can hit the ground running and produce in a big way this year. The Twins have a significant amount of lefty bats they may need to balance in the lineup, but Larnach could certainly get run at the designated hitter spot. If he can hold serve anything like he did on the farm, and has shown in brief stints at the highest level, Baldelli will have plenty to be excited about when putting him in the lineup.

Maybe the Twins could have done more to add ability into the lineup this offseason. That said, banking on the development they have always been encouraged by is hardly a misstep either. This pair of prospects have topped charts and been highly anticipated for some time. Still young, and now healthy, breakouts for both could be on the horizon.

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[Bigfork Twins Guy]

I too am encouraged regarding the potential health of these two players.  I specifically hope that they can be in the lineup a substantial amount of time to help make up for the loss of Luis Arreaz and believe that they will in fact do that if healthy.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I really want Kiriloff to be back in full force but I’m skeptical about the wrist. I have much more faith in Larnach.  He had an injury that he has healed from, but I fear Kiriloff has more of a “condition” that will result in a chronic ongoing situation.  

[MABB1959]

They don't mention anything about Buxton?

[Blyleven2011]

If healthy they both should do just fine ,  they have the potential  but larnach may start in AAA  due to the depth of the outfield and lack of reps the past 2 seasons , if he is hitting and playing well and Kepler or Gallo can't produce in the batting order over the mendoza line  , the best player should be playing on the roster for the twins ...

[wsnydes]

I think Larnach and Kirilloff are pretty important to the long term potential of this club.  Seeing them both have a full and at least mostly healthy season would be huge for them and the club.  

[wsnydes]

1 hour ago, MABB1959 said:

They don't mention anything about Buxton?

The article was about the youth of the organization.  Buxton is 29, so not really in that conversation anymore.  

That said, no mention of Lewis either.  I still think he's extremely important to the organization's future, either on the roster and healthy or by being trade bait for a key upgrade.

[twinstalker]

I don't think health has impacted Larnach's performance.  He's just not that good.  His K rate is 33% in MLB and 29% at AA/AAA with a minors OPS of .824.  We have to stop thinking our guys are good because they're our guys.  Can Larnach be a marginal major leaguer?  Sure.  Can he have a blip season with very good numbers?  Possibly some year.  But I think that's what you're looking at.

This maybe more accurately could have been about Kirilloff.  The baseball savants I hang with think he's crap, and I think that's unfair.  MLB K rate:  23%   AA/AAA: 18%, minors OPS .895  He's been much younger vs his minors competition than Larnach was, too.

So people who think AK is meh really don't get that his wrist has been the problem (even his one average-ish minor league season, he had a wrist injury), whereas Larnach actually is meh, and the real problem is people overrated him.

[Rosterman]

Kirilloff is pretty much it for first base, unless you move Miranda there...then who plays third base. 

Larnach has Wallner pushing him. Plus if Kepler remains, and Gallo plays left, then it IS between Wallner and Larnach for the bench/DH spot. Who would be betetr served getting regular playing time in an outfield position.

Looking forward to spring training...and a healthy Twins team on the field everyday.

[mikelink45]

Wait and see.  We have anticipated long enough with Lewis and Kiriloff and Larnach - now it is time to produce or look to the next group.  

[TwinsDr2021]

Larnach will be 26 next month, AK just turned 25, I think them not being "young" anymore has more to do with it then perception, but that is just me, considering Arraez for example won't be 26 until next April. They both won't be FA for 4 years so that is good, that they wasted 2 years each isn't.

[RJA]

I love TD but I am now at the point that all the speculation is wearing me down. Let’s get to spring training and see who is healthy, who is looking sharp, and who surprises. It is time for the rubber to hit the road so we can see what we have. 

[Major League Ready]

17 minutes ago, RJA said:

I love TD but I am now at the point that all the speculation is wearing me down. Let’s get to spring training and see who is healthy, who is looking sharp, and who surprises. It is time for the rubber to hit the road so we can see what we have. 

I don't remember another year with so many young players we knew could make an impact but were yet to prove it.  Kirilloff and Miranda are guys we can have some confidence in but I still feel like there is a wide gap between ceiling and floor.  Will Lewis be healthy and look like he did in his debut.  Larnach and Wallner have much to prove.  Will Julien or martin get a shot and will they look like the players we saw in the AFL.

On the pitching side, How will Alcala and Maeda return from injury and we really need Varland and SWR to get established this year with Gray / Maeda and Mahle reaching free agency.  Can Moran muster enough command to be the dominant guy we know he can be.  I saw a clip of Jax throwing 100 in a workout.  Can they get more out of him.  Of course, can Buxton stay healthy.   Do we get 1st half Lopez or the guy that was mediocre with us.  That's a lot of uncertainty but the good news is there is upside in that uncertainty.  It would be particularly gratifying if a good portion of this came together this year.

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

I don't remember another year with so many young players we knew could make an impact but were yet to prove it. 

Hopefully, the younger players who look prepared, are healthy, and show they are ready to play get at bats and are rewarded for their performances.

[twins_89]

The Twins could really use a good developmental year, something they haven't had much luck with recently. Getting fully healthy seasons from Kirilloff, Larnach, and Winder could have a big impact at the major league level. Seeing Lewis and Canterino return with the same production they had when they went down would add some high-end depth later in the season. Finally, Balazovic and Martin need to get back on track and show why they used to be elite prospects. That's a ton of talent that just hasn't been able to stay healthy or take the next step developmentally.

[Doctor Evil]

I like Kiriloff and Larnach. Imho they start in St. Paul and get their groove on while demonstrating availability. 

[Beast]

Larnach has a .370 slugging and .680 OPS in 430 ABs.

Kirilloff - .398, .694 in 350.

They have 2 WAR between the two of them in 800 ABs.

We’ll find out how much that is due to injury, I guess.  

Im not sure Kirilloff will be the same.  I don’t doubt he wouldve been a good hitter if not for the wrist.  Im more optimistic about him.  I’m not so sure about Larnach.  

[bird]

1 hour ago, twins_89 said:

The Twins could really use a good developmental year, something they haven't had much luck with recently. Getting fully healthy seasons from Kirilloff, Larnach, and Winder could have a big impact at the major league level. Seeing Lewis and Canterino return with the same production they had when they went down would add some high-end depth later in the season. Finally, Balazovic and Martin need to get back on track and show why they used to be elite prospects. That's a ton of talent that just hasn't been able to stay healthy or take the next step developmentally.

In my own view of things, I draw these three distinctions in assessing last year:

First, they had a really tough year health-wise affecting young players with the big club and valued prospects in the upper minors. Lewis, Kirilloff, Winder, Larnach, Canterino, Sands, Balazovic, Enlow...

Second, I think on balance they actually had a very strong development year. They had over a dozen prospects "debut" in MLB. Ryan, Duran, Miranda, Moran, Ober, Varland, Sands, Wallner, SWR, Henriquez, Lewis, and Steer wth Cincy. Plus, really across the system, lots of prospects broke out, perhaps most promising was the DSL. Even after parting with a slug of prospect capital, the system looks to be, at worst, middle of the road, maybe just sneaking into the top half in the rankings.

Third, a good number of those players who got a taste of things are in a good position to actually establish themselves in 2023 as viable long-term assets. Yes, many will flail and fail. But a half-dozen or so are pretty likely to become above-replacement types. My bets are on Lewis and Kirillof in particular, but I'm not sleeping on SWR as a rotation stalwart and Canterino and Henriquez as bullpen studs by 2024.

[miracleb]

Several of you would have HATED Torii Hunter and Kirby Puckett in their first few years.........

[rv78]

47 minutes ago, miracleb said:

Several of you would have HATED Torii Hunter and Kirby Puckett in their first few years.........

Hunter maybe, NO WAY Puckett. 

[Swing Batter-Batter]

20 hours ago, MABB1959 said:

They don't mention anything about Buxton?

I noticed that as well. Setting expectations so low that anything will seem like a major achievement. 

[MABB1959]

18 hours ago, wsnydes said:

The article was about the youth of the organization.  Buxton is 29, so not really in that conversation anymore.  

That said, no mention of Lewis either.  I still think he's extremely important to the organization's future, either on the roster and healthy or by being trade bait for a key upgrade.

I just haven't read anything about Buxton so wondering if will be ready for Spring Training or not.  

[MABB1959]

Just now, Swing Batter-Batter said:

I noticed that as well. Setting expectations so low that anything will seem like a major achievement. 

I was thinking more about how it would affect ticket sales and they are keeping his health status quiet for now.  Who knows!

[miracleb]

Yes...even Puckett!  Puck didn't turn into Puckett..... until after about 1000 MLB at bats........

rv78

  1 hour ago, miracleb said:

Several of you would have HATED Torii Hunter and Kirby Puckett in their first few years.........

Hunter maybe, NO WAY Puckett. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

15 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

I don't remember another year with so many young players we knew could make an impact but were yet to prove it.  Kirilloff and Miranda are guys we can have some confidence in but I still feel like there is a wide gap between ceiling and floor.  Will Lewis be healthy and look like he did in his debut.  Larnach and Wallner have much to prove.  Will Julien or martin get a shot and will they look like the players we saw in the AFL.

On the pitching side, How will Alcala and Maeda return from injury and we really need Varland and SWR to get established this year with Gray / Maeda and Mahle reaching free agency.  Can Moran muster enough command to be the dominant guy we know he can be.  I saw a clip of Jax throwing 100 in a workout.  Can they get more out of him.  Of course, can Buxton stay healthy.   Do we get 1st half Lopez or the guy that was mediocre with us.  That's a lot of uncertainty but the good news is there is upside in that uncertainty.  It would be particularly gratifying if a good portion of this came together this year.

 Reminds me of the great Sopranos' quote:  "Our true enemy has yet, to reveal himself".  

[rv78]

11 minutes ago, miracleb said:

Yes...even Puckett!  Puck didn't turn into Puckett..... until after about 1000 MLB at bats........

rv78

  1 hour ago, miracleb said:

Several of you would have HATED Torii Hunter and Kirby Puckett in their first few years.........

Hunter maybe, NO WAY Puckett. 

Puckett played in 128 games his rookie season, Hit .296 and was 3rd in ROY voting. In his 2nd season he played in 161 games, (unheard of with todays players), Led the majors with 691 at bats, hit .288 and had 199 hits total, Not sure what you are smoking but it must be a little waky tabbaky. 

[wsnydes]

27 minutes ago, MABB1959 said:

I just haven't read anything about Buxton so wondering if will be ready for Spring Training or not.  

No, that's fair.  I haven't either, frankly.  We weren't going to get that in this article though.

[rv78]

27 minutes ago, MABB1959 said:

I just haven't read anything about Buxton so wondering if will be ready for Spring Training or not.  

He'll be ready for spring training and hurt for most of the regular season.

[miracleb]

Puckett had an OPS below 700 his first 1000 at bats.....guys on TD would have HATED that!

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

21 hours ago, Rosterman said:

Kirilloff is pretty much it for first base, unless you move Miranda there...then who plays third base. 

Farmer plays third base until Lewis comes up.  They also can put Gallo at first base and leave Miranda at third.  They have options as the FO has built in real roster flexibility.