A Jose Miranda Breakout to Dream On

[Ted Schwerzler]

It wasn’t long ago that Jose Miranda could lay claim to having arguably the best offensive season in minor-league baseball. Despite having been a second round pick, he had never shown up on any top prospect lists, and it wasn’t until the 2021 explosion that he got recognition nationally. Now with a rookie season in his rear view mirror, the next step at the Major League level could be a fun one.

 

Image courtesy of © Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports

Following a .973 OPS across 124 games split between Double-A and Triple-A, Jose Miranda found his way into the Baseball America and MLB Pipeline Top 100 prospect lists coming into the 2022 season. Even as he tore up the two levels previously, there just wasn’t room for him on the Opening Day roster.

Last season, Rocco Baldelli broke camp with Miguel Sano as his first baseman and Gio Urshela manning the hot corner. Luis Arraez was a utility defender factoring in both places, and Nick Gordon was even further insurance. As much as Miranda did the year prior, he was going to need to force his way in or wait for an opportunity.

It was an incredibly small sample size for Miranda before making his May 2nd debut with the Twins. Playing in only 21 games for Triple-A St. Paul last year, he posted just a .737 OPS during a cold month of April. His 10 doubles were promising, as were the two blasts, but everyone knew what they saw a season ago was real.

When the dust settled on his rookie season, Miranda wound up playing in 125 games for the Twins. His 116 OPS+ was a very promising start, and he rocketed his first 15 homers while still contributing a .325 on-base percentage. Through his first 80 games Miranda had an extremely impressive .811 OPS, and it wasn’t until pitchers began to figure him out and make adjustments that numbers slipped late.

Entering 2023, plenty more is known for Miranda. Urshela and Arraez are both gone. He will play the hot corner, a position he has more traditionally called home. Despite being lackluster defensively at first base last season, it’s at third where he shines a bit brighter. He’ll again have veteran Carlos Correa to guide him on the left side, and their friendship has only strengthened since the Puerto Rican descended upon Spring Training last year.

Knowing where he stands within the organization should provide some level of comfort this spring. Miranda is projected to be worth 2.6 fWAR per Steamer, which would more than double his 2022 value. A .269/.324/.449 slash line reflects a nice jump in overall OPS, and 20 homers would be a good boost from the power production a season ago. Steamer also has these numbers derived from just 133 games, which would only be slightly more than Miranda played at the big league level last season. Barring an untimely injury, he should be expected to cruise past that number.

While it looked as though Correa may head to New York and play third base alongside fellow Puerto Rican Francisco Lindor, his return to Minnesota keeps him at shortstop and still has him playing alongside a countrymen. Miranda has already established himself as a substantial part of the Twins future, but it’s in 2023 that he could break out to an even higher level.

For a guy that is not at all unaware of success in this sport, seeing growth in year two of the majors would be a substantial boost for all involved. Plenty of the Twins lineup will be reliant on youth doing the heavy lifting, and for a team that isn’t old by any means, there is no reason why the 24-year-old Miranda can’t be right in the thick of it.

The rookie debut was a fun one, but a breakout similar to that of which we saw on the farm in 2021 would carry the Twins youngster to new heights.

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[mikelink45]

I really like Miranda and I think he will become a high level player for us.  I have the same feeling about Julien and I am anxious to see him in the majors too. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

If he could hit the Steamer projection, that would be a great year for him and hopefully be an even stronger foundation to continue to build upon.  I feel like that makes his success more sustainable over several years than a big spike in year two with all of the added pressure and expectations that would immediately come with that.   If the Twins can fill their team with “very good” players in many positions it will do as much for them as “great” players in one or two spots. Ask the Angels how that’s working out.  

[Rod Carews Birthday]

39 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

I really like Miranda and I think he will become a high level player for us.  I have the same feeling about Julien and I am anxious to see him in the majors too. 

I agree with your thoughts on Julien. I think he has the potential to be really good. I just really want him to get some AAA time this season before he gets the promotion.  Even with his Arizona fall league success,  I think that some time in St. Paul will help his long term development a great deal. 

[gman]

Sure seems like the Steamer projection is very low for him, but not much history yet. I think he should hit in the middle of the lineup starting out 5th or 6th with a good number of RBI opportunities. Hopefully this year he has hitters around him who are having good years.

[sun]

I continue to believe that Miranda will play both 1B & 3B. I've read more about Lewis eventually being moved to 3B which means that Miranda would probably need to move back to 1B again which seems like a wasteful back & forth effort.

Either Miranda is the best at 3B or Farmer is. Of course Farmer will need to move around which allows MIranda some time playing 3B. But what if he's not as good as Farmer? And that only delays the question about what's going to happen to Miranda if Lewis wins the 3B position when he returns. 

It's great that the Twins can have so much positional flexibility. But most fans tend to think that the positions would be more fixed, unlike how Rocco constructs so many different battings orders which draws criticism from the fans after the Twins start losing games. And both Miranda & Farmer are right handed hitters so both may be needed in the line up together at times..

The issue is not that big of a deal other than being a matter of raising fans expectations. Farmer may not be better at 3B after all. But if he's the back up SS then you'd think that Rocco would want to keep him on the same side of the field to help him keep his throws accurate when he plays SS. For some players accurate throws are a matter of conditioning, but for others maybe not so much. The level of play  at 3B should reveal a lot.

Hopefully there won't be too many nuisance injuries to infielders this year which could reduce the team's positional flexibility.

[jmlease1]

Miranda's year two is going to be a very interesting one. Can he punish LHP pitching consistently and be one of the players that will balance out their plethora of LH (mostly OF) bats? Can he make the counter-adjustments to what pitchers were doing to him later in the year? Will he be able to improve defensively at 3B with that being his primary position rather than bouncing around and being asked to play more 1B?

The projection systems are pretty high on him overall; if he turns in a season similar to what Steamer or Zips are projecting then he'll have a pretty good year and be an important contributor. I'm a big fan of Miranda; his breakout season wasn't just impressive, it was staggering. He absolutely crushed AA & AAA pitching the entire season. He overcame a horrendous start in the MLB debut to really get a handle on what he needed to do, and was an important contributor. (A lot of players stink in their first taste of MLB and need to go back to the minors to adjust and prepare. Miranda battled through it and got on track on the fly and that impressed me.)

[rv78]

Even if Miranda doesn't ever have a breakout season, more of them like last year will be sufficient. His numbers translated to a 162 game season put him in the 20HR, 85RBI area with a .265BA. He shouldn't and doesn't need to be the one to carry this team but his overall numbers can provide a ton of help in a supporting role.  I'll be happy with average desense from him at 3B if he can continue to put up offensive numbers like that. I don't see Rocco using Farmer at 3B a lot since they both bat righty. Instead I hope to see Rocco use Farmer in LF or RF verses a lefty pitcher instead of Kepler or Gallo. I think Farmer can play in the OF but not sure. C-Vazquez, 1B-Kirilloff, 2B-Polanco, SS-Correa, 3B-Miranda, LF-Farmer, CF-Buxton, RF-Taylor, DH-Jeffers would give the Twins an all righty BO, except for Kirilloff, verses lefty pitchers. The more Kepler and Gallo ride the bench especially against lefty pitchers, the better.

[Trov]

The main reason I have high hopes for Mirana, is he has shown growth, and willingness to work his ass off, and take coaching.  Unlike some players that reject some coaching, he took huge strides over last few years when he took some coaching.  He went from a fringe prospect to top guy simply by changing up a small approach at the plate.  Now, he is getting in better shape and I expect him to continue to improve.  

[miracleb]

Where are the photos from Twins Fest of the slimmer Miranda ......everyone has been talking about? 

:)

[puckstopper1]

The Twins are going to need some of the young talent to shine if they are going to take the next steps.  This includes Miranda, Kirilloff, Jeffers, Larnach, etc.  Having these guys grow into strong contributors will be required to strengthen the core of this team.

It starts with health, so here is to a healthy year for all of them!

[JD-TWINS]

On 1/31/2023 at 3:43 PM, sun said:

I continue to believe that Miranda will play both 1B & 3B. I've read more about Lewis eventually being moved to 3B which means that Miranda would probably need to move back to 1B again which seems like a wasteful back & forth effort.

Either Miranda is the best at 3B or Farmer is. Of course Farmer will need to move around which allows MIranda some time playing 3B. But what if he's not as good as Farmer? And that only delays the question about what's going to happen to Miranda if Lewis wins the 3B position when he returns. 

It's great that the Twins can have so much positional flexibility. But most fans tend to think that the positions would be more fixed, unlike how Rocco constructs so many different battings orders which draws criticism from the fans after the Twins start losing games. And both Miranda & Farmer are right handed hitters so both may be needed in the line up together at times..

The issue is not that big of a deal other than being a matter of raising fans expectations. Farmer may not be better at 3B after all. But if he's the back up SS then you'd think that Rocco would want to keep him on the same side of the field to help him keep his throws accurate when he plays SS. For some players accurate throws are a matter of conditioning, but for others maybe not so much. The level of play  at 3B should reveal a lot.

Hopefully there won't be too many nuisance injuries to infielders this year which could reduce the team's positional flexibility.

Farmer’s our back-up at 3B - SS - 2B……..that’s 75 starts just resting 3 guys. Gotta think that with his improved offense v. Lefties he will start every game against Lefties & Miranda will be at 1B in all those games…….maybe another 25-30 starts other than resting someone. Unless there are injuries that’s probably Farmer’s limit on playing time during regular season. Will probably get 10-20 AB’s as a pinch hitter as well late in games or key situations against left handed pitching.

Miranda at 3B for 100 plus starts! I think he hits .275 with 20 HR - hoping he’s a doubles machine!!! Lots of line drives of his barrel.

Stay healthy!!

[JD-TWINS]

10 hours ago, rv78 said:

Even if Miranda doesn't ever have a breakout season, more of them like last year will be sufficient. His numbers translated to a 162 game season put him in the 20HR, 85RBI area with a .265BA. He shouldn't and doesn't need to be the one to carry this team but his overall numbers can provide a ton of help in a supporting role.  I'll be happy with average desense from him at 3B if he can continue to put up offensive numbers like that. I don't see Rocco using Farmer at 3B a lot since they both bat righty. Instead I hope to see Rocco use Farmer in LF or RF verses a lefty pitcher instead of Kepler or Gallo. I think Farmer can play in the OF but not sure. C-Vazquez, 1B-Kirilloff, 2B-Polanco, SS-Correa, 3B-Miranda, LF-Farmer, CF-Buxton, RF-Taylor, DH-Jeffers would give the Twins an all righty BO, except for Kirilloff, verses lefty pitchers. The more Kepler and Gallo ride the bench especially against lefty pitchers, the better.

Vs. Lefties:

Taylor CF - Buxton DH - Correa SS - Miranda 1B - Polanco 2B - Jeffers C - Gordon LF - Farmer 3B - Kepler RF

My opinion is Gallo must be worst LH hitter v. LH pitching, not sure, he sits. Had similar thought you did but only carrying 2 catchers, probably can’t DH one of them in case Catcher needs to be replaced. Seems like there’s some reason that there’s risk with that move?

[rv78]

13 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Vs. Lefties:

Taylor CF - Buxton DH - Correa SS - Miranda 1B - Polanco 2B - Jeffers C - Gordon LF - Farmer 3B - Kepler RF

My opinion is Gallo must be worst LH hitter v. LH pitching, not sure, he sits. Had similar thought you did but only carrying 2 catchers, probably can’t DH one of them in case Catcher needs to be replaced. Seems like there’s some reason that there’s risk with that move?

Rocco played Jeffers at catcher and Sanchez at DH multiple times last year. He'll do the same thing this year if his analytical numbers tell him it gives him an advantage. The chances of one of them getting hurt when they are both playing are low so that number tells him to take the chance it won't happen. Even with Farmer being able to play catcher in a pinch doesn't help if all 3 of them are in the lineup.