Twins Timeline for Prospects in 2023

[Ted Schwerzler]

Over the years, if you have been a reader of Seth Stohs’ Twins Prospect Handbook, you have seen a piece along these lines. Each year, the big-league club sees debuts of highly-anticipated prospects. While some happen due to injury and others take place because of performance, you can bet Minnesota will welcome some fresh faces to Target Field this year.

 

Image courtesy of © Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Last season, Rocco Baldelli saw a significant number of players make their major-league debuts. We finally saw Royce Lewis play shortstop at Target Field, and Jose Miranda earned his way onto the roster after an incredible 2021. Simeon Woods Richardson closed out the season for the Twins, and hometown star Louie Varland took his turn as well.

Although the Twins are somewhat veteran-laden at several key spots, we’ll still see plenty of prospects pop up along the way this season. Trying to pick one player per month, here are a few names we could see for the first time in 2023:

April - To Be Determined
Prior to being traded for Michael A. Taylor, there was reason to believe that Evan Sisk could find himself in this spot. Acquired from the St. Louis Cardinals for J.A. Happ, he's a high strikeout guy at Triple-A that hasn't been able to calm the walks. Maybe the Twins didn't see it happening and flipped him. If another prospect is going to debut this soon in 2023, it will likely be to replace an arm in the bullpen.

May - Austin Schulfer
Working as the Double-A Wichita closer for the first half of the year, Schulfer dominated. He then struggled across 32 2/3 innings at Triple-A St. Paul. Having moved fully to a bullpen role following the 2021 season, Schulfer looks the part of a quality major-league reliever. He should be called upon at some point this season when the bullpen could use a fresh arm. Starting strong for the Saints is a must in 2023.

June - Jordan Balazovic
Previously the best starting pitching prospect in the Twins system, things couldn’t have gone worse for Balazovic in 2022. He got off to a late start due to a knee injury, and despite suggesting he was healthy, never got back on track. The walk and home run rates skyrocketed last year, but turning it back to his 2021 and earlier numbers, Balazovic could rekindle some of the same prospect allure that made him a consensus top 100 type coming into the year.

July - Brent Headrick
A 9th-round pick in 2019, Headrick was added to the 40-man roster this offseason. His 4.81 ERA at Double-A was a byproduct of the longball, but he has shown the ability to generate strikeouts as a starter. Another lefty, Minnesota could opt to push him into a bullpen role, but either way, he’ll have ample opportunity to work his way toward Triple-A and beyond this season.

August - Brooks Lee
Taken with their most recent 1st round pick, Minnesota fans may see Lee as soon as this year. While it may look like he’s blocked on the dirt, there is no reason that he couldn’t play second base if Jorge Polanco is hurt or struggles. Lee looked incredibly advanced during his professional debut, and that justified promotions all the way up to Double-A.

September - Austin Martin
Once the key piece of a Jose Berrios trade, Martin’s prospect shine has faded some. He didn’t hit for power last season, and it led to a frustrating year at Double-A. His Arizona Fall League season went well, however, and returning to more of a pure hitter could be a good change. He may find a role in the outfield or move off of shortstop, but Martin figuring into Minnesota’s plans behind Byron Buxton may make some sense late.

October - Matt Canterino
This is truly a wild card as Canterino is currently rehabbing from Tommy John surgery last summer. He has great strikeout stuff, and while his delivery is unconventional, it may work exceptionally well in the bullpen. The former Rice product may be well served to put his starting days behind him, and if the Twins are in a run for the postseason, Canterino could provide a big boost to the bullpen.

What prospects are you most excited for in 2023 and who not on this list do you think could debut?

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[jmlease1]

Julien has to be on this list. He had a monster year at AA, his hit tool is advanced, he's likely to start the year in AAA and if he's crushing it there, then he'll be looked at as an injury replacement if any of the non-SS guys go down for an extended period of time.

[miracleb]

Giving up Sisk for Taylor is going to be a 5=8 year disaster for the Twins.  He did/does have an issue with walks but they have steadily been reducing.  There will be a collective "groan" from this group .........every time Taylor steps up the the plate.

 

Agree above on Julien!!

[miracleb]

and Canterino is a 2024 guys...not this year.  Still VERY high hopes for him!

[Fatbat]

Im always overly excited about young pitchers. It would be pretty cool to see Varland and SWR stick with the twins but thats a double edged sword because it would mean that the injury bug bit hard. 

[mikelink45]

The problem for Balazovic besides his meltdown, is that Winder and Ober will be first in line to fill rotation gaps and then Paddock might come in late in the year too.  Unless there is a trade it is hard to see how our rookie SP get a chance this year.  

I agree with all the notes on Julien and I am excited to see how former Twin Steer does for the Reds this year. 

[Doctor Gast]

Julien has to be the 1st one called up depending the need at 1B. The others won’t be called up until Sept.

[TopGunn#22]

I'm totally in the Julien camp.  If he hits and gets on base in St. Paul at the level he has previously, he will be up whether it's to play 2B or 1B.  He would also be a perfect leadoff guy.  Would love to see Balazovic at some point.  That would indicate that he's made a significant turnaround.  But the Twins have a LOT more pitching depth than before and Winder, SWR and Varland would certainly be up before him.  And if each of THOSE guys are up we've probably suffered another round of pitching injuries. 

Brooks Lee is a guy I could certainly see up at some point.  The kid can hit and is a switch hitter to boot.  Lewis will need about 3-4 weeks in St. Paul once he's cleared to play to knock off the rust, but he's a lock to be called up.

Finally, my great white whale of a prospect, Matt Canterino!!  If this guy can EVER stay healthy he could become the lock down closer that allows Duran to start.  OR, the two of them flat out dominate the 8th and 9th innings and they headline one of baseballs BEST bullpen for several years.   

[Elliot]

Barring trades, you can probably eliminate anyone not currently on the 40 man.

The most likely spot to see a rookie break camp with the team is the bullpen. Again, looking at the 40 man roster gives the following names: Balazovic, Canterino (later in the year), Headrick, Henriquez, Winder, Sands, and SWR. Any injury that puts a pitcher on the 60 day IL (likely) could open a 40 man spot for another young reliever. 

Position players will be more dependent on injuries, trades, or total performance meltdowns resulting in a DFA and an opening on the 40 man. The 40 man contains options for the outfield that should allow for shuffling between the bigs and AAA; however I believe all have already made their initial appearance at the major league level. In the infield the only player currently on the 40 man roster who has not seen time in the bigs is Julien, making him a logical choice for first rookie position player to make an appearance. His biggest holdup is the dreaded "no defensive home" label. I would think they would be hesitant to bring him up for any extended play anywhere other than 2B or DH. That could change if he starts the year at AAA playing various positions to gain some level of familiarity. Lewis (later in the year) is also a 40 man option and has a bit more experience playing other positions (mainly 3B and OF) in the minors and AFL. Martin and Lee, along with Lewis, share the "no defensive home" label hung on Julien; however, in my opinion it differs from it being applied to Julien.  I think Juien is similar to Arraez in that he doesn't really have the skillset to shine anywhere other than possibly 1B. It sounds as if the other 3 have defensive abilities. The question with the 3 current SS is whether they have the chops to stick there or if they will have to move to another spot. All 3 sound as if they have athleticism to be above average performers at 2B, 3B, or OF (including CF for Martin and Lewis).

Overall, it appears that the young position player breakthroughs to be watching for in majors in 2023 will be focused more on the likes of Larnach, Kiriloff, Miranda, and Wallner; young MLBers taking the next step rather than young rookies. Look for rookie breakouts on the mound, either starting or relieving.

By the way, I am somewhat surprised that there isn't more discussion about the fact that the only lefthanded pitcher on the 40 man who isn't strictly a reliever (Thielbar, Moran) is Headrick. The top 10 or 11 candidates for starting spots are all RH. Is it less of an issue which way they throw now, and more an analytical "how do they perform" against RH or LH hitters?

[bird]

My bet is on Ronny Henriquez, early, as a bullpen piece who establishes himself immediately as integral. My hope is that his role is as a 6th inning type, preceding a group of effective rp's that include Pagan (yeah yeah, I know), Moran, Jax, Alcala, Thielbar, Lopez, and Duran. Wishful thinking, I know.

[cmoss84]

I just want to see Royce, Kirilloff, and Larnach stay healthy and have a little success, and Miranda and Gordon repeat theirs. Not ready for these new guys yet! ...unless we trade Polanco.

[Major League Ready]

If we define prospects as players with less than 1/2 year service time, I don't see any of these as the most likely candidates with the exception of Martin.   Among position players, I would expect Larnach / Wallner / Martin and Julien.  Among pitchers I would expect Moran / Winder / Sands / Henriguez / Varland and SWR in roughly that order.

[DocBauer]

Ted's OP is prospects to DEBUT for the first time. And that's the key. Even in very SSS we've seen a bunch of the current 40 man do so. And I think Elliot is correct when he states you can pretty much forget anyone not currently on the 40 man roster, barring trades.

And even without that rather obvious criteria...and the 40 man is pretty well stacked to be honest...the choice is CLEARLY Julien. Signed too late in 2019 to play, and no 2020, college draftee or not, his development and production has skyrocketed him through the system in TWO YEARS. He was great in 2021, dominate in 2022, and was "cheated" out of MVP in the recent AFL season, still earning the nice "breakout player" award.

Still looking for a defensive "home", you find room for a hitter with all of his potential and ability. Very good chance he, more or less, swaps places with Arraez as an OK defensive player at a few spots, and sess time at DH, so he can be in the lineup most days. He won't hit like Arraez, or have the same uncanny ability to avoid K's like him, but will walk more, and have more power and speed. (Better knees, one would think). 

I wouldn't be shocked if he broke camp, but I don't see the room for him, as the roster stands today. And I don't think the Twins will want to push him that fast, wanting him to get some AAA time before promotion. But he's just got to be #1 on the list.

The remaining options, as listed, I don't have a problem with, in general. It all seems to make sense. The exception might be Balazovic. I still have a lot of faith in him after a single nightmare season. The talent is still there, the potential is still there, and sometimes s**t happens and just goes wrong. I wouldn't be surprised if they guarded him a bit and let Winder/SWR/Varland get time before him to just give him all the time he needs to get right.

DARKHORSE CANDIDATE: Don't sleep on the older Helman to get a shot at some time as a super utility RH bat with pop and speed and some bat ability to be a fill in player at some point in 2023.

 

[Major League Ready]

It's going to be pretty tough for any of these guys that have not debuted to get playing time this year.  There are just too many guys ahead of them in the process.  

[Nashvilletwin]

46 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

It's going to be pretty tough for any of these guys that have not debuted to get playing time this year.  There are just too many guys ahead of them in the process.  

Agree, if the proposed list above is it, we will have lots of solid prospects clamouring to get traded.  Ober, Winder, Varland, SWR, Julien, Wallner, Lewis, Celestino - these guys need to play too to see what we’ve got. 

[Blyleven2011]

8 hours ago, bird said:

My bet is on Ronny Henriquez, early, as a bullpen piece who establishes himself immediately as integral. My hope is that his role is as a 6th inning type, preceding a group of effective rp's that include Pagan (yeah yeah, I know), Moran, Jax, Alcala, Thielbar, Lopez, and Duran. Wishful thinking, I know.

That's what dreams are made of , keep it up ...

[Fatbat]

1 hour ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Agree, if the proposed list above is it, we will have lots of solid prospects clamouring to get traded.  Ober, Winder, Varland, SWR, Julien, Wallner, Lewis, Celestino - these guys need to play too to see what we’ve got. 

They should be fully motivated to play great in St. Paul and basically force the team to bring them across the river. Its just a matter of time when someone is tearing up AAA. 

[Major League Ready]

14 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Agree, if the proposed list above is it, we will have lots of solid prospects clamouring to get traded.  Ober, Winder, Varland, SWR, Julien, Wallner, Lewis, Celestino - these guys need to play too to see what we’ve got. 

Varland and SWR in particular need to get a look given Gray / Mahle and Maeda are free agents.  The dream is one or both of them are pitching so great that they force their way onto the team even if it means one of the pending free agents gets moved at the deadline.

There is room for Lewis / Wallner and Larnach.   Let's hope for a similar situation with them.  Let's hope Larnach and Wallner are good enough that they obvious play becomes trading Gallo at the deadline.   Dare to dream, right.   The IF spot opened via the Arraez departure leaves room for one of Julien / Martin or Lewis.   It will be interesting to see how that plays out.   They can always trade Farmer if they are so fortunate as to have guys beating down the door.  I would be really happy if our problem was too many prospects making a great case to be at the ML level.

[bird]

11 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Varland and SWR in particular need to get a look given Gray / Mahle and Maeda are free agents.  The dream is one or both of them are pitching so great that they force their way onto the team even if it means one of the pending free agents gets moved at the deadline.

There is room for Lewis / Wallner and Larnach.   Let's hope for a similar situation with them.  I hope Larnach and Wallner are so good that they obvious play becomes trading Gallo at the deadline.   Dare to dream, right.   The IF spot opened via the Arraez departure leaves room for one of Julien / Martin or Lewis.   It will be interesting to see how that plays out.   They can always trade Farmer if they are so fortunate as to have guys beating down the door.  I would be really happy if our problem was too many prospects making a great case to be at the ML level.

It won't happen, but it's my recurring dream:  Winder, Varland, Ober, and SWR ALL look to be at least mid rotation guys, and are ready to roll. Martin moves to the OF and looks awesome in LF and CF, and continues his AFL tear. Wallner surprises with his play in RF and hits bomba after bomba with the Saints. Headrick looks like a great lefty reliever. Royce looks like an every day SS, and Correa moves to 3B to make room. Brooks Lee pounds at the door at season's end. In the meantime, back at Target Field, Kirilloff, Larnach, and Miranda are studs. The bullpen is rock solid.

Falvey, at the deadline, despite the Twins holding on to first place, decides to dangle a bunch of surplus vets, and gets a massive prospect haul for Sonny Gray, Joey Gallo, Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco, Michael A. Taylor, Caleb Thielbar, and Emilio Pagan. Oh, and Dobnak, who's lighting it up in St. Paul, but is behind Varland, SWR, Balazovic, Sands, and Enlow on the depth chart over there. And the plan for a repeat of their 2023 WS win in 2024? An OF of Larnach/Buxton/Wallner/Martin/Gordon, an infield of Correa, Lee, Lewis, Kirilloff, Julien, and Farmer, with Miranda the primary DH. No change at catcher. They bat 9th. Easy peasy.

[Major League Ready]

40 minutes ago, bird said:

It won't happen, but it's my recurring dream:  Winder, Varland, Ober, and SWR ALL look to be at least mid rotation guys, and are ready to roll. Martin moves to the OF and looks awesome in LF and CF, and continues his AFL tear. Wallner surprises with his play in RF and hits bomba after bomba with the Saints. Headrick looks like a great lefty reliever. Royce looks like an every day SS, and Correa moves to 3B to make room. Brooks Lee pounds at the door at season's end. In the meantime, back at Target Field, Kirilloff, Larnach, and Miranda are studs. The bullpen is rock solid.

Falvey, at the deadline, despite the Twins holding on to first place, decides to dangle a bunch of surplus vets, and gets a massive prospect haul for Sonny Gray, Joey Gallo, Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco, Michael A. Taylor, Caleb Thielbar, and Emilio Pagan. Oh, and Dobnak, who's lighting it up in St. Paul, but is behind Varland, SWR, Balazovic, Sands, and Enlow on the depth chart over there. And the plan for a repeat of their 2023 WS win in 2024? An OF of Larnach/Buxton/Wallner/Martin/Gordon, an infield of Correa, Lee, Lewis, Kirilloff, Julien, and Farmer, with Miranda the primary DH. No change at catcher. They bat 9th. Easy peasy.

If you are going to dream, you may as well dream big.  They do have quite a few guys with upside and we all dream of that playing out this year and years to come.  

[Rosterman]

The Twins have a pretty solid 40-man roster right now. Two names will start the season on the extended IL list, so there will be two openings. And, at best, there are two glaring names that stand-out as do-or-die in spring training, one of whom will be given the benefit of the doubt and probably make the team.

 

In regards to bullpen arms, you basically will use at least one of the spots to rotate thru a name like Derek Rodriguez or another minor league free agent (Ortega, Alexy who were both claimed), someone you feel you can lose if you must send them back to the minors or remove them from the 40-man roster after the quick add. 

If you added someone like Schuler (or Sisk vefore the trade), you would basically need to keep them on ther 40-man if you didn't feel they wee expendable.

Curious to see what the Twins do with Balazovic. I would almost start him at the "warmer" Wichita, perhaps, as the Saints rotation seems strong breaking spring training. Names like Winder, Varland, Woods Richardson, deLeon, Rodrioguez, maybe Ober, and a couple of minor league signings may cause this need to start the "higher prospect" back. But time is running out for Balazovic.

Pitchers like Sands, Winder and Henriquez will be the first pecking order to come up if need arises. I'm sure the Twins will use one of the guys who started a game or more to fill out he need for double-heder starts, if they develop.

On the position front, Julien is the name to watch. As well as Wallner. Sadly, I'm not sure who the next-in-line catching callup would be, again the need to carry an open 40-man spot, or someone that you can remove and not care what happens to them.

We forget that Martin only has two pro seasons under his belt. And is the man without a position. WIll he start at AAA (which I would do), but where. Same with Lee. He should start at AA, as the Twins need him to play competitive everyday. Curious to see what position then play him at.

We can feel happy that the Twins have farmer and Gordon as their super reserves, both who can play a variety of positions in a pinch for the short-term. But, again, the Twins immediate weakness on the "field" end of the roster seems to be first base and catcher for immediate depth.

What hurts, perhaps, are the names on the 40-man that MAY NOT see time in the mjaors in 2023 - Balazovic, Canterino, Headrick, Paddack. I'm glad they were able to sneak Enlow thru waivers, one less wasted roster space for 2023, but still have the player.

[roger]

I believe that Prielipp will be the next Chris Sale.  He didn't play at all in his draft year, thus, it is less likely that he debuts for the Twins this year as Sale did for the Sox in his first full year.  Thus, I see him breaking in early in 2024.  But there is a chance, albeit small, that Connor Prielipp will step onto the Target Field mound late in 2023.

 

[wabene]

Board of Dreams...... Ahhhhhhhhh nice

[Trov]

On 1/28/2023 at 8:33 AM, miracleb said:

Giving up Sisk for Taylor is going to be a 5=8 year disaster for the Twins.  He did/does have an issue with walks but they have steadily been reducing.  There will be a collective "groan" from this group .........every time Taylor steps up the the plate.

 

Agree above on Julien!!

Sisk could have been taken by any team in the rule 5 if they wanted him.  Pretty sure most teams are not expecting much from him.  He walked 4.7 per 9 in AAA last year. It was 3.5 in AA but he had 3.5 in rookie ball too, in similar amount of innings.  So after his rookie ball year, he forgot how to throw strikes?  Most likely not.  Most likely as he advanced hitters stayed off some stuff. 

Might he have some good stretches sure, but I would not be looking to bring him in high leverage spots, because he will walk 1 guy every other inning.  I can only guess how bad it will get when he is facing MLB top hitters who know how to work a count.  Overall he is a lefty specialist, but with having to pitch to three batters, if you do not end an inning, he will have to face some RH hitters. Giving up OBP of .341 against righties last year, but the year before he was actually worse against lefties, but that is outlier year.

I have little faith Sisk will give much value to any team.  This year he at best will be coming in blow games, and maybe a few chances against lefties.  I am sure there will be a few games against us were he faces one of our many lefties and people will talk about how bad it was we traded him, but overall we will not be missing out on him in my opinion. 

[Harrison Smith]

I personally don't see Balazovic coming up this early in 2023. I think for that to happen, he would have to play very well, which is a stretch in itself, or there would have to be signifigant starting rotation injuries. I have around ten guys that could be in the rotation before Balazovic, so I just don't see him being called up due to injury.