Could the Twins Still Swing a Deal for an Ace?

[Hunter McCall]

Trading for Pablo Lopez to add to the front of the rotation was a great move, but it doesn't mean the Twins should stop pursuing options to improve the unit.

Image courtesy of © Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

Derek Falvey pulled off another master-class trade last Friday in which he flipped

Luis Arraez for Pablo Lopez with two prospects. One of those prospects, Jose Salas, was a top five prospect in the Marlins organization. The 19-year-old Salas was an international signing in 2019 by the Marlins and now gives the Twins another middle infield prospect with a ton of upside.

Falvey has shown to be very patient on the trade market, sticking to his guns and getting teams to overpay. Just as he did when he traded Jose Berrios for Austin Martin and Simeon Woods-Richardson at the 2021 trade deadline, Falvey has a knack for getting the most out of every trade he has his hand in. The Twins were insistent they wouldn't trade Arraez for Lopez in a 1-for-1 deal, but the fact that the front office convinced the Marlins to throw in a top prospect provides the Twins with a good amount of middle infield depth in the minor leagues.

Salas joins Royce Lewis, Brooks Lee, and Austin Martin

as top prospects in the Twins organization and potential future shortstop options to take over for Carlos Correa when he inevitably moves to 3rd base. The consensus is that Lee and Martin will almost certainly move positions by the time they arrive at the majors, but Lewis proved he can play short in his limited time there last year. While Salas is young, early accounts suggest that he may stick at short.

The depth the Twins have built is excellent. After this trade, the Twins have acquired enough top-tier minor-league talent to make a swing for a pitcher even more impactful than Lopez.

The Twins currently have six pitchers worthy of a look at a rotation spot, and while all of them are very good, none of them would be considered an "ace." The rotation the Twins have built is better than any rotation they've had in a while, but adding a top-of-the-line pitcher would put this team from contenders in the AL Central to contenders in the American League. Whether they move to push for a trade now or at the trade deadline in July, the Twins could cash in on the depth of minor-league talent they have accumulated just as they cashed in on the depth of MLB-level hitters in the Arraez trade.

This offseason, a couple of pitchers' names have been thrown around that would be considered by most in the "ace" status of starting pitchers. The two names mentioned most frequently are Arizona Diamondback's Zac Gallen and Milwaukee Brewer's Corbin Burnes . Gallen is under team control through 2025, while Burnes is under team control through the 2024 season.

Trading Burnes when your team is a contender in its division would be weird, but that's how the Brewers have operated in recent years. Despite being in the thick of the playoff race, they traded Josh Hader to San Diego at last year's deadline. Zac Gallen has more control than Burnes and plays on a bad team, so Gallen remains the more likely option to get moved at some point this year.

The package for either of these two players would not be cheap, but after adding Salas, the Twins could have enough assets to complete a trade and not deplete the farm too much. They also have the #5 overall pick in the upcoming MLB Draft this July. Plus, they have young talent on the major league roster.

For instance, if the Twins were to strap Bailey Ober , under team control through 2027, to one of their top infield prospects, they could put themselves in a position where they would be close to pulling off a deal. Coupling the assets the Twins have to give with Falvey's recent ability to get teams to overpay leaves trading for an ace well within the realm of possibilities.

While it is unlikely that the Twins will pull off a trade for an ace before the offseason ends, it remains a possibility of something to look forward to at the trade deadline. If the Twins can stay healthy and competitive, there is no reason they can't use their depth of infield talent at the minor-league level to make one more massive move in an attempt to bring the Commissioner's Trophy back to Minnesota.

What are your thoughts? Should the Twins dip into their minor-league talent to put together a package that would entice a team to send back their ace? Let me know! As always, Go, Twins!

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[Karbo]

IMO, they need to be careful trading away the youth. While we have some depth, things can change so fast. And what will happen when it comes time to sign some of these guys? Are the funds going to be there? I do applaud what has been done so far, but there are some guys that are either going to have to be extended, traded, or they will be free agents in the next few seasons. If you trade your youth who will you have to replace them? I wonder if they could work out a way to trade Rocco? LOL

[mikelink45]

Not expecting it, but it would certainly be a shock to fandom.   I do think including a pitcher (Ober in your example) would be necessary as part of the package. 

Berrios had an awful year, but managed to stay in the games long enough to get 12 wins.  Martin and SWR still have to prove themselves in mlb before we can use the line "getting teams to overpay. Just as he did when he traded Jose Berrios for Austin Martin and Simeon Woods-Richardson at the 2021 trade deadline."   I see that statement a lot on TD - but it is not true yet.  The potential is there, but we have seen potential fade away before. 

[jsmort99]

Should they go all in? How would a trade of Ober, SWR, Rodriguez, and Salas for Zac Gallon look. It's a big price to pay, but they'd have a rotation of Gallon, Lopez, Ryan, Gray and Mahle, with Maeda as the long relief/fill in starter. Still having Varland and Winder in AAA ready to fill in this year or next year. It sets your rotation up for the next few years, even if you only sign one of the three FA's next year. (Gray, Mayhle and Maeda). 

It's bold, but is sends a message to the team and fans, that they're trying to win it all, not just win the division. 

[Trov]

Personally, I would not want to deal too much of our farm system for a guy that will be here 2 years.  The main reason, is we will have several in our rotation all leaving at the same time.  If they all leave, then we will need to fill those spots with someone.  You would hope we will have a few ready to step in, but we would run into the, untested guys again.  I also am hesitant to trade our top SS prospects, mainly because they can move to other positions at MLB level, and as long as they can hit, which most have shown they can, I do not see a point in giving them up.  

I am not one that believes that either Gallon or Burns will make the full difference between losing in first round or not.  Yes, it would increase our chances most likely, but how much better are they than what we can put out there?  As long as we have health, we should have a decent 5 man rotation, and I do not think either Gallon or Burns will improve enough to be worth what we would need to give up. 

I would agree that with a top pitcher pitching top of their game can help carry a team in playoffs.  However, just having the best pitcher in the matchup will not mean you win.  We had Santana for several post season runs, but never won a series.  The year we beat Oakland, many years ago, every one of the starting pitcher match ups very much went to Oakland.  I mean our best pitcher, Radke would not have been slotted better than any of the top 3 for Oakland, but yet we still won.  Yankees have had Cole last few years, but still no ship for them.  

I believe raising the overall floor is better than having 1 top guy.  Dealing away all your assets to improve a little just does not seem worth it. Sure if you could get Gallon for Ober, Salas or Martin, and a third lower level guy, I would jump at that, but my guess it will take much more.  I do not even think Burns could be had for that. I bet not 1 trade starts without Lee or Lewis being talked about, and most likely both, and more. 

[specialiststeve]

My understanding when the new FO was put in place is we were going to try to build our pitching from within ala Cleveland. We have some guys that have had success and have some pretty good stuff. Ober has shown that he can not only pitch but pitch well at this level. At some point we have to let these guys move into rotation spots. Are they aces ... maybe not but.. maybe if given the opportunity. I do like Gallan and Burnes but is going to take a TON to get those guys. 

[old nurse]

Castillo cost Seattle 2 top 100 prospects and 2 high ceiling prospects.  I don’t think the Twins want to give up that kind of prospect capital unless they were moving a starter and another position player for most of that capital

[farmerguychris]

There are only probably 8 true aces in the league.  I would not be interested in moving that kind of future potential for one of those guys who will likely only be around for a year or two.  Too much potential with players like Lee, Lewis, Martin, etc.  

[terrydactyls]

If (and that's a BIG if) the Twins really need another pitcher, IMHO I think they should wait until the trade deadline.  By July (or even June), the Twins will know what holes they need to fill.  The need for a position player might be far greater than the need for a pitcher or possibly the currently assumed starting rotation is over performing and Paddock has made a couple successful starts after his long recovery period.  Leave the minor leagues alone for now.

However, if a really solid pitcher or position player can be acquired by trading Polanco, Kepler, and Gallo, (along with one good prospect outside our top ten), go for it.

[twinstalker]

Trade prospects?  Let's put it this way: right now our most dependable outfielder or 1B is Nick Gordon.  There is little reason to think Larnach, Kepler, Kirilloff, Gallo, Celestino, or even Buxton (health-wise) will ever live up to what we'd hoped for them.  It's currently looking like a swamp of mediocrity.  Unless there's a breakthrough or two, the Twins are going to need to replace most of these guys.

[Major League Ready]

or they could keep the top tier prospects it would require and use the payroll savings those players provide to acquire a top of the rotation arm in free agency.  The net of that strategy would be to have all of the players that would have been traded away and a top of the rotation arm.   This strategy obviously has much more upside and the benefits last for 5-6 years.  Not to mention that betting on one guy as often as pitchers get hurt there is real potential to give away a ton and get very little in return.

A contending team would never trade away an "ace" for a collection of average players that are established so trading  Polanco, Kepler, and Gallo for an ace is never going to happen.  The only way an ace is delt is if it's for multiple great prospects that have a huge impact on the future of a franchise.  

[hitterscount]

If you are serious about contending you pull the deal for either one of them... preferably Gallen with the additional year of team control.  

[strumdatjag]

The addition of Pablo Lopez, young ready pitchers plus starters returning from injury gives the Twins a deep rotation.   There is no need to trade valued prospects for a short-term addition at this juncture.   I had been supporting signing Bauer for the MLB minimum, but the Twins now have enough starting talent for this year.  Use some of the excess left-handed outfielders, shortstop prospects (not named Lee or Lewis) to trade for quality pitching prospects to stock the minors.   I want the Twins ranked in the Top Three minor league systems so we continue to see winning baseball for the next 7 years. 

[Otaknam]

You only make that kind of move IF you are a realistic and proven contender to win the World Series. I like how the team is shaping up so far. If healthy the lineup should be run producing, and the rotation should give them a chance to win every night. Maybe then you make a trade for an ace. Regardless, Lewis, Lee, Rodriguez, and Raya should all be off limits in a trade. 

[JD-TWINS]

13 minutes ago, twinstalker said:

Trade prospects?  Let's put it this way: right now our most dependable outfielder or 1B is Nick Gordon.  There is little reason to think Larnach, Kepler, Kirilloff, Gallo, Celestino, or even Buxton (health-wise) will ever live up to what we'd hoped for them.  It's currently looking like a swamp of mediocrity.  Unless there's a breakthrough or two, the Twins are going to need to replace most of these guys.

We are in a deep minority but I agree completely on Gordon! If you take away Buxton’s ability to contribute as DH, it wouldn’t be close. 

2022: .272BA - 50 RBI batting 7th or lower - 405 AB’s & had 28 doubles. Played OF for first year in career, 2 positions. Gained 25lb from January to June & is getting stronger after overcoming intestinal ailment.

How do his stats project in a better line-up & him getting 575 AB’s?

Larnach - Kirilof - Kepler - Gallo all need to Show Me something this year to move Gordon from 80 starts in LF & 50 starts in CF.

Martin - Lewis are in the wings……..no mention of Celestino is on purpose.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Still complaining about pitching depth I see...

I think they are looking for another relatively big move, but I don't see it being a pitcher.  I see them moving a SS prospect and some pitching prospects (both current areas of depth) and some other players if need be (Gordon, Kepler levels) to get a corner IF or corner OF RH bat.

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

Having just obtained Lopez, I do not think we should acquire a #1 as I think it will push all the starters down and take valuable development MLB innings away from our prospects like Ober, Winder, SWR, etc.  If we lose Gray, Madea, next season, we will need at least one of the younger guys to move up or at that time we can entertain another trade.

[JD-TWINS]

I’m stuck on the Marlin’s Luzardo! Why - seems really talented & yet completely unproven after only one successful season of 100 innings. Also, less costly than the ACE types.

Marlins are moving Arraez to 2B - moving 2nd baseman to CF for first time ever in OF. They are in last year of contract with 1st baseman.

Luzardo to Twins for:

Celestino (CF with upside & control) - Kepler (starting OF with upside as shift is lifted). These guys address their everyday OF problem - also, lets the Team options on how to get Arraez into line-up. There’s some talk that the former 2nd baseman should move to SS & not CF.

I’m not a Marlins expert but these two guys help them with issues they have……….if we add Martin it helps with their SS deficiency. I’d add J. Lopez for pitching help as an upside veteran!

4 players that can contribute - 2 under long control. All for a young Lefty.

Thoughts??

[JDubs]

Quote

For instance, if the Twins were to strap Bailey Ober , under team control through 2027, to one of their top infield prospects, they could put themselves in a position where they would be close to pulling off a deal.

This is pretty much the definition of wishful thinking. Look at what good pitchers actually got in trade value last year. Or even better, think about what you would accept in a trade if the Twins had an ace. Hell, even Berrios, long derided by this fan base for not being a "true" ace, got back more than that. No one who could reasonably be called a front line starter is going to be available for one prospect and one 3/4 type starter.

[CRF]

Sorry...you lost me at "master class trade".

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, old nurse said:

Castillo cost Seattle 2 top 100 prospects and 2 high ceiling prospects.  I don’t think the Twins want to give up that kind of prospect capital unless they were moving a starter and another position player for most of that capital

I live in Cincinnati - I wish we did that trade for Castillo last year v. the trade for “OK” Mahle!

Castillo does have ACE stuff & mentality.

Understand the risk……….with Castillo on the staff we would still have Arraez. We may or may not have Correa?

If we traded 3 guys for Mahle……we trade the same 3 guys and add a Top Prospect or a younger arm. It was doable even if I’m undershooting the cost. Maybe add an Ober or Winder?

Gotta roll with reality this Spring - fingers crossed.

[Blyleven2011]

I can not agree that the FO gets the other team to overpay ...

See Lopez , mahle or even Dyson  as recent deadline trades , I think we over paid at the deadline trades ...

Maybe I would have agreed that the FO  has gotten the other team to over pay during the offseason trades but not the deadline trades , the deadline trades have not worked out in our favor...

[tony&rodney]

The Twins are not trading E. Rodriguez, R. Lewis,  or B. Lee for anyone. Period.

It is doubtful there is another trade for a significant player. I cannot think of anyone who is available right now.

Come late July, there may be some serious changes in how a team sees their players, which allows for a trade.

[specialiststeve]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

I’m stuck on the Marlin’s Luzardo! Why - seems really talented & yet completely unproven after only one successful season of 100 innings. Also, less costly than the ACE types.

Marlins are moving Arraez to 2B - moving 2nd baseman to CF for first time ever in OF. They are in last year of contract with 1st baseman.

Luzardo to Twins for:

Celestino (CF with upside & control) - Kepler (starting OF with upside as shift is lifted). These guys address their everyday OF problem - also, lets the Team options on how to get Arraez into line-up. There’s some talk that the former 2nd baseman should move to SS & not CF.

I’m not a Marlins expert but these two guys help them with issues they have……….if we add Martin it helps with their SS deficiency. I’d add J. Lopez for pitching help as an upside veteran!

4 players that can contribute - 2 under long control. All for a young Lefty.

Thoughts??

I would be good with that... not sure the Twins would move Lopez in the deal but not sure why not as Rocco and our pitching coach had no idea how to run the bullpen last year.... I REALLY like Lozaro. I do think he could have ace stuff... and young. 

Would be nice if we could somehow move either Sonny or Maeta in a deal for an quality asset but am guessing they are going to put them in the rotation and "cash in" at the trade deadline with teams needing starting pitching. Right now the market for them is not great... come mid summer... they will have very good value... 

[Cap'n Piranha]

I agree with what seems to be the consensus here--the Twins should wait for the deadline to add talent via trade, unless they can somehow pull off a steal on the AJ-for-Liriano/Nathan level.  The farm system actually has a pretty nice collection of potential top-end talent (Lewis, Lee, Prielipp, Salas, and Rodriguez all have all-star potential, and all of them could be in the bigs by 2024/2025 if things break right).  As such, I think the Twins should let the current roster start the year, and re-assess in early June as to what the true needs for 2023 are.

[Sean.h]

2 hours ago, jsmort99 said:

Should they go all in? How would a trade of Ober, SWR, Rodriguez, and Salas for Zac Gallon look. It's a big price to pay, but they'd have a rotation of Gallon, Lopez, Ryan, Gray and Mahle, with Maeda as the long relief/fill in starter. Still having Varland and Winder in AAA ready to fill in this year or next year. It sets your rotation up for the next few years, even if you only sign one of the three FA's next year. (Gray, Mayhle and Maeda). 

It's bold, but is sends a message to the team and fans, that they're trying to win it all, not just win the division. 

I don't think they would give up an ace-caliber pitcher unless you include multiple top 30-ish prospects. Rodriguez is a nice talent but not in that range. 

[bird]

3 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Not expecting it, but it would certainly be a shock to fandom.   I do think including a pitcher (Ober in your example) would be necessary as part of the package. 

Berrios had an awful year, but managed to stay in the games long enough to get 12 wins.  Martin and SWR still have to prove themselves in mlb before we can use the line "getting teams to overpay. Just as he did when he traded Jose Berrios for Austin Martin and Simeon Woods-Richardson at the 2021 trade deadline."   I see that statement a lot on TD - but it is not true yet.  The potential is there, but we have seen potential fade away before. 

I get that, Mike, but that potential doesn't fade away as often as you might think when it comes to prospects as highly-rated as Martin and SWR. Some examples from 2022 of prospects in the system with reasonably comparable FV's to SWR and Martin:

Louie Varland, Jovani Moran, Cole Sands, Matt Wallner, Ronny Henriquez, Jhoan Duran, Joe Ryan, Josh Winder, Jose Miranda, and Royce Lewis. Ten players who played for the big club last year. Add SWR to the list. Oh, and Spencer Steer with Cincy.

If you look at the Fangraphs 2022 list, you'll see that 7 out of the first 10 prospects on that list made a MLB appearance, including SWR. Now, not all of them are going to be Miranda, Ryan, and Duran style successes of course. The 3 who didn't make it were Martin, who blew up the Arizona Fall League, Canterino (injured), and Balazovic, who could be a guy with potential who fades away.

Of course, a few of these prospects won't amount to much. But I think this is evidence that the chances are very very good that Toronto overpayed for a declining Berrios, who will get paid roughly $20M each year through 2028.

 

[PatPfund]

Enough with the ace pitching. Nobody is dealing an ace this close to the season (especially not for some of the "offers" suggested here). I like much of what has happened in the off-season, but the Gallo signing left the team with too many LH hitting OFs (none of whom show signs yet of being able to hit .240 and stay healthy other than Gordon), and the bullpen still feels light (short a Fulmer, maybe?). If we are making any moves I'd rather we thin the OF crop, and add a good pitcher for Rocco to overuse in the 6th and 7th innings.

And reassess in late May to possibly add what the team needs. Because until this team shows otherwise, it is not an "ace" away from winning it all, and if Kirilloff, Larnach, Polanco, Kepler, Gallo, Buxton, etc don't either step up or stay healthy or both the team is as likely to be sellers as they are to be buyers in July.

[JD-TWINS]

How can we move Kepler - Celestino - Pagán - J. Lopez? These are my bag holders for a potential bad year. Last 3 guys are just a cloud of bad mojo to me. I don’t really have a problem with Kepler but you can’t sign Gallo and play both Gordon & Kepler with Buxton in OF, to me,…… Gordon earned the starts in ‘22.

I would rather “free” Max and play Larnach in OF as needed.

However, OFTEN against right handed pitching (I think we face about 80% of the time) we could DH Larnach & play Gallo - Gordon - Kepler in OF. These guys are all high potential offensive threats against RH pitching! This could work during the 35-40 games Buxton will rest!

Somebody must want these 4 guys - right?

[Omgbenji]

3 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

I’m stuck on the Marlin’s Luzardo! Why - seems really talented & yet completely unproven after only one successful season of 100 innings. Also, less costly than the ACE types.

Marlins are moving Arraez to 2B - moving 2nd baseman to CF for first time ever in OF. They are in last year of contract with 1st baseman.

Luzardo to Twins for:

Celestino (CF with upside & control) - Kepler (starting OF with upside as shift is lifted). These guys address their everyday OF problem - also, lets the Team options on how to get Arraez into line-up. There’s some talk that the former 2nd baseman should move to SS & not CF.

I’m not a Marlins expert but these two guys help them with issues they have……….if we add Martin it helps with their SS deficiency. I’d add J. Lopez for pitching help as an upside veteran!

4 players that can contribute - 2 under long control. All for a young Lefty.

Thoughts??

Yes on Luzardo, no on your proposed trade. There is no way, no how the Marlins do that. They’d hang up before you got to your second sentence. Teams want good young players for their good young players. What you’re offering is a pile of meh. Would you take those players in return for Raya?