Rumor: Arraez turned down a Twins offer before last year

[sun]

It's no wonder Arraez was traded. A Star tribune article in MSN News states that.

Luis was said to have turned down a contract offer from the Twins before last season. And he wound up as their only player among eight eligible for arbitration this go-round to file for a hearing.

Bottom line: Arraez felt he was more valuable to the Twins than they did for at least the past two seasons.

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/mlb/reusse-trade-of-batting-craftsman-arraez-doesn-t-set-well/ar-AA16A8Im?fbclid=IwAR1JOjXOFjQZ3vY2oOVaNxCr_vxaD9OCRfMIMKlURkwRXV_Df-7cIH7pCU0

 

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[mnfireman]

Perpetual Minnesota sports critic Patrick Reusse disapproves of trading Arraez, imagine that. That right there is enough for me to think the team made the right move.... 

Didn't remember the contract offer last off-season, but found the MLBTR link: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/05/twins-luis-arraez-avoid-arbitration.html

[chpettit19]

When the 2nd sentence of the article is "Terry Ryan, the former Twins general manager, used a 2-through-8 system to have his scouts evaluate players" you know it's just going to be about how the game was better back in the day, and these new young guys, and their "analytics," don't know what they're doing.

While I'll be the first to say that analytics have made the game far less entertaining with the 3 true outcomes, it's embarrassing to tie the scouting scale to Terry Ryan like that. News flash: the Twins current front office also uses the 20-80 scale! Terry Ryan wasn't some super genius who was doing something outrageous. The 20-80 scale for scouting players was used by Branch Rickey who died back in the 60s. It's been around for a little while. Using Terry Ryan's name there is simply an attempt to get the "old school" crowd riled up.

As for Arraez and an extension, he's not the first player to turn one down and won't be the last. Good for him for not taking less than he feels he's worth. And good for the Twins for not paying more for a player than they think he's worth.

[Shaitan]

Turning down an offer is the first step of any negotiation. I'm not reading anything into this.

And find me one employee, anywhere, who doesn't think they're worth more than their boss pays them.

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, mnfireman said:

Perpetual Minnesota sports critic Patrick Reusse disapproves of trading Arraez, imagine that. That right there is enough for me to think the team made the right move.... 

Didn't remember the contract offer last off-season, but found the MLBTR link: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/05/twins-luis-arraez-avoid-arbitration.html

I'm not a Reusse fan either, I'm not surprised that Arraez thought he was worth more than the Twins thought because he had Boras as an agent. And maybe the difference of opinion may have had something to do with him being traded.

I don't trust Reusse's evaluations, by most ratings Reuse has overrated Arraez & underrated Lopez. and way underrated this trade. For getting this return for Arraez, this FO was able to convince MIA of what they thought of Arraez's worth, which was immense.

All of us will miss Arraez, but this trade has filled a great need at front-line SP from a surplus of our 1B/ DH position. This trade is by far has been this FO best trade.

[rwilfong86]

14 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

All of us will miss Arraez, but this trade has filled a great need at front-line SP from a surplus of our 1B/ DH position. This trade is by far has been this FO best trade.

They filled a great need for another #3 starter when they have an entire rotation full? I think this could easily go down as the worst trade this FO makes. Trading an All-Star, Silver Slugger, and Batting Champion who is the best contact hitter with the lowest K rate in baseball for an average starting pitcher and 2 prospects who are at least 4 years away is another fleece job. At the end of the day, Miami is a better team, the Twins really aren't. They're still the #3 team in the AL Central.

[chpettit19]

29 minutes ago, rwilfong86 said:

They filled a great need for another #3 starter when they have an entire rotation full? I think this could easily go down as the worst trade this FO makes. Trading an All-Star, Silver Slugger, and Batting Champion who is the best contact hitter with the lowest K rate in baseball for an average starting pitcher and 2 prospects who are at least 4 years away is another fleece job. At the end of the day, Miami is a better team, the Twins really aren't. They're still the #3 team in the AL Central.

What makes Salas "at least 4 years away?"

[Squirrel]

7 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

What makes Salas "at least 4 years away?"

Not only that, but by adding Salas, it's another piece we can use in a trade. It was a good move. Lopez wasn't the pitcher I'd have gone after, as I've said, but, I think the Twins made a good value trade.

[Trov]

The FO has made it clear, if they cannot sign a player they will trade them to get some value out of them.  Berrios was in the same situation.  Fans may prefer us to just pony up more cash, but I for one is a fan of the moves.  

[rwilfong86]

18 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

What makes Salas "at least 4 years away?"

He's 19 years old in High A right now, I'll be shocked if he is on a Major League roster before 2025. Subscribe to Patreon and listen to the "Gleeman and the Geek" podcast episode from Friday, they go over the possible ETA of the prospects from this trade making the majors. Best $1 you will spend all week.

[Roaddog]

57 minutes ago, rwilfong86 said:

They filled a great need for another #3 starter when they have an entire rotation full? I think this could easily go down as the worst trade this FO makes. Trading an All-Star, Silver Slugger, and Batting Champion who is the best contact hitter with the lowest K rate in baseball for an average starting pitcher and 2 prospects who are at least 4 years away is another fleece job. At the end of the day, Miami is a better team, the Twins really aren't. They're still the #3 team in the AL Central.

I think you're overrating Arraez and underrating Lopez and others

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, rwilfong86 said:

He's 19 years old in High A right now, I'll be shocked if he is on a Major League roster before 2025. Subscribe to Patreon and listen to the "Gleeman and the Geek" podcast episode from Friday, they go over the possible ETA of the prospects from this trade making the majors. Best $1 you will spend all week.

Ok. But 2025 isn't 4 years away. It's 3 seasons away. If he's debuted in the majors at the age of 21/22 this trade would be a massive win for the Twins.

[rwilfong86]

1 minute ago, Roaddog said:

I think you're overrating Arraez and underrating Lopez and others

I respectfully disagree. Considering the change with the shift, I think Arraez value will be even higher next year with his ability to hit the ball where he wants. Lopez has a history of injuries and fell apart down the stretch. Ultimately only time will tell, but after 2023 we will probably have an idea of who won this trade.

[Dman]

I get where PR is coming from.  We all love watching Arraez bat.  The guy most prospect watchers didn't think would make it to MLB let alone win a batting title. The guy who is always humble and hard working.  The guy who can really make a pitcher work but Reusse only focused on one side of the story if you ask me.

Reusse didn't mention Arraez's knee issue's.  Didn't mention keeping him healthy meant keeping him at 1st and DH more and resting him versus lefties when possible.  He didn't mention that the over all average OPS of 1st baseman was essentially the same as Arraez. Didn't have a plan for what to do with Arraez when Lewis, Lee and Jullien come up.  He also is someone who always, always complains about Twins pitching and he didn't address that in his article either.

He didn't mention that Trade values and most outlets thought the value the Twins got back was rated as significant and likely an overpay.  That even the Rookie Miranda had a 750 OPS after having a really tough start to his MLB career so it isn't like Luis's 785 OPS is elite.  His production can be replaced easier than then the Twins can find Pitchers of Lopez's caliber.

I get Arraez is a unique hitter and I have loved, loved everything about him, but I still think this trade made the Twins a stronger team now and in the future.

 

[rwilfong86]

Just now, chpettit19 said:

Ok. But 2025 isn't 4 years away. It's 3 seasons away. If he's debuted in the majors at the age of 21/22 this trade would be a massive win for the Twins.

Okay, probably 3 years for Salas and 4 for Chourio. Better? It would be great if he has a Jose Miranda level rise through the minors. If in 5 years this trade becomes a franchise turning point for the Twins like some of their trades from previous generations that led to sustained periods of winning I will happily eat crow.

[chpettit19]

Just now, rwilfong86 said:

Okay, probably 3 years for Salas and 4 for Chourio. Better? It would be great if he has a Jose Miranda level rise through the minors. If in 5 years this trade becomes a franchise turning point for the Twins like some of their trades from previous generations that led to sustained periods of winning I will happily eat crow.

If Chourio makes the bigs at all it'll be quite impressive. I don't bank on any 17 year old who hasn't even debuted in full season ball making the bigs. He's just a nice lottery ticket to have. But I think 3 years for Salas seems reasonable. As far as prospects go, he's got as good a shot as any. My hope is that he ends 2023 in AA. If he does that he's a big time prospect and on the doorstep. A Miranda style season this year would be incredible and I'd very much like it.

I'm not a Lopez believer. Cognitive dissonance has me trying to see the positives in him now that he's on the Twins, but I was very much against a 1 for 1 swap of Arraez for Lopez. But adding a borderline (some evaluators have him in, some don't) top 100 global prospect in the deal makes it reasonable to me. Really hope Julien tears Spring Training apart and is the leadoff hitter for the Twins sooner than later. Assuming there's no other trades that bring in a leadoff hitter type.

[Wizard11]

6 minutes ago, rwilfong86 said:

Okay, probably 3 years for Salas and 4 for Chourio. Better? It would be great if he has a Jose Miranda level rise through the minors. If in 5 years this trade becomes a franchise turning point for the Twins like some of their trades from previous generations that led to sustained periods of winning I will happily eat crow.

Will you eat crow if Arraez’s knees blow out and he is lost for the season?

[rwilfong86]

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

If Chourio makes the bigs at all it'll be quite impressive. I don't bank on any 17 year old who hasn't even debuted in full season ball making the bigs. He's just a nice lottery ticket to have. But I think 3 years for Salas seems reasonable. As far as prospects go, he's got as good a shot as any. My hope is that he ends 2023 in AA. If he does that he's a big time prospect and on the doorstep. A Miranda style season this year would be incredible and I'd very much like it.

I'm not a Lopez believer. Cognitive dissonance has me trying to see the positives in him now that he's on the Twins, but I was very much against a 1 for 1 swap of Arraez for Lopez. But adding a borderline (some evaluators have him in, some don't) top 100 global prospect in the deal makes it reasonable to me. Really hope Julien tears Spring Training apart and is the leadoff hitter for the Twins sooner than later. Assuming there's no other trades that bring in a leadoff hitter type.

Salas in AA by the end of 2023 would be a reasonable goal. I live 2.5 hours from Wichita so that would be a fun "scouting trip" to make.

[rwilfong86]

1 minute ago, Wizard11 said:

Will you eat crow if Arraez’s knees blow out and he is lost for the season?

I will eat crow if that happens, and he doesn't hit .300 again.

[Squirrel]

10 minutes ago, rwilfong86 said:

Okay, probably 3 years for Salas and 4 for Chourio. Better? It would be great if he has a Jose Miranda level rise through the minors. If in 5 years this trade becomes a franchise turning point for the Twins like some of their trades from previous generations that led to sustained periods of winning I will happily eat crow.

You are also forgetting the potential to trade him sooner. If he continues to be a highly rated prospect that is capital that can be used in a trade.

[chpettit19]

15 minutes ago, rwilfong86 said:

I respectfully disagree. Considering the change with the shift, I think Arraez value will be even higher next year with his ability to hit the ball where he wants. Lopez has a history of injuries and fell apart down the stretch. Ultimately only time will tell, but after 2023 we will probably have an idea of who won this trade.

Wouldn't the change in the shift rules hurt Arraez's value? He wasn't shifted on to start with so he's not going to hit any better than he did simply because of the shift (he might hit better, but the shift wouldn't be why). But other guys will. If the rest of the league is now hitting for a higher average because of the shift ban, doesn't it make Arraez hitting for average a less valuable commodity?

[Mike Sixel]

24 minutes ago, rwilfong86 said:

He's 19 years old in High A right now, I'll be shocked if he is on a Major League roster before 2025. Subscribe to Patreon and listen to the "Gleeman and the Geek" podcast episode from Friday, they go over the possible ETA of the prospects from this trade making the majors. Best $1 you will spend all week.

 

[mnfireman]

15 minutes ago, rwilfong86 said:

Salas in AA by the end of 2023 would be a reasonable goal. I live 2.5 hours from Wichita so that would be a fun "scouting trip" to make.

Salas has played at 2 levels so far every year as a pro, and I would expect him to do so again this year. He played 48 games at High A last year and the Marlins High A team is in the same league as the Twins High A team, so he's seen a lot of the competition already. The development/advancement of Lee, Julien, Lewis, & Martin may hinder his advancement though.

1 hour ago, rwilfong86 said:

At the end of the day, Miami is a better team, the Twins really aren't. 

Miami is talking about moving Chisholm to CF and playing Arraez at 2B, I don't think that makes them a better team. Also, they traded a starter who gave them 32 starts and 180 innings and are moving forward based on health and potential. If we are going to go forward based on health and potential, I like Kirilloff, Joulien, Lewis, Larnach and Polanco, teamed with Farmer and Miranda over Arraez to cover the UT/DH role.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

2 hours ago, mnfireman said:

Didn't remember the contract offer last off-season, but found the MLBTR link: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/05/twins-luis-arraez-avoid-arbitration.html

What’s the Twins record on team-friendly extensions? How have those players done? 

[rwilfong86]

1 minute ago, mnfireman said:

Salas has played at 2 levels so far every year as a pro, and I would expect him to do so again this year. He played 48 games at High A last year and the Marlins High A team is in the same league as the Twins High A team, so he's seen a lot of the competition already. The development/advancement of Lee, Julien, Lewis, & Martin may hinder his advancement though.

Miami is talking about moving Chisholm to CF and playing Arraez at 2B, I don't think that makes them a better team. Also, they traded a starter who gave them 32 starts and 180 innings and are moving forward based on health and potential. If we are going to go forward based on health and potential, I like Kirilloff, Joulien, Lewis, Larnach and Polanco, teamed with Farmer and Miranda over Arraez to cover the UT/DH role.

The logjam of middle infielders could be a hindrance to his advancement and could open the door for a trade of someone from that prospect list.

I thought the Red Sox were nuts for moving Kike Hernandez from 2nd to CF and that's actually turned out good for them, the Chisholm move could follow that example and depending on if the Marlins end up singing Gurriel, we could see Arraez more at 1st or DH if Jazz can't play CF.

[se7799]

2 hours ago, rwilfong86 said:

They filled a great need for another #3 starter when they have an entire rotation full? I think this could easily go down as the worst trade this FO makes. Trading an All-Star, Silver Slugger, and Batting Champion who is the best contact hitter with the lowest K rate in baseball for an average starting pitcher and 2 prospects who are at least 4 years away is another fleece job. At the end of the day, Miami is a better team, the Twins really aren't. They're still the #3 team in the AL Central.

I'm sorry, but I strongly  disagree  with this take.  Why do you consider Lopez to only have a cieling of a number 3 starter?  How many #3 starters throw 180 innings these days?  To say we got fleeced is just not true.  Salas is not 4 years away either.  So you are telling me you peg the Twins for 3rd place?  I am wondering if you envisioned a 1st or 3rd place finish prior to the trade?

[IA Bean Counter]

I have no concerns with Arreaz wanting a bigger contract and getting paid what he feels he is worth.  Even still this is a very good trade possibly great trade.  If López is a #2 pitcher for us for the next two years it is worth trading Arreaz along with the two prospects. I expect Arreaz to regress with being in a stronger division.  A .290 -.300 average hitter is still good but with no power it is not worth López potential.  Arreaz was a great Twin and I hope he proves me wrong and gets the payday he deserves. 

[rwilfong86]

7 minutes ago, se7799 said:

I'm sorry, but I strongly  disagree  with this take.  Why do you consider Lopez to only have a cieling of a number 3 starter?  How many #3 starters throw 180 innings these days?  To say we got fleeced is just not true.  Salas is not 4 years away either.  So you are telling me you peg the Twins for 3rd place?  I am wondering if you envisioned a 1st or 3rd place finish prior to the trade?

Download Patreon and listen to the "Gleeman and the Geek" podcast episode from Friday. It will be the best $1 you spend all week. The Twins were the 3rd best team in the division before the trade, and are still the 3rd place team in the division after the trade. The 2 better teams in the division, have rotations with #1 and #2 starters. Could Lopez be a #1 or #2 starter? Or Joe Ryan or Sonny Gray? It is possible but highly improbable. On a contending team, the best of the Twins starters would be #3 or lower. The Marlins were probably the worst team in the NL East and are now the second worse team in the division lol which for their fans it's worth celebrating.

[SkyBlueWaters]

2 hours ago, rwilfong86 said:

They filled a great need for another #3 starter when they have an entire rotation full? 

Respectfully, I think you overrate the rotation before the deal was made. We don't know that Maeda or Paddack will come back from injury and pitch well enough to be close to front-end starters.

I certainly don't put Mahle or Ober toward the front of our rotation. If the point is to last deep in the playoffs, I don't see the Twins currently as having pitching the matches up well enough with the ace or 2nd starter of most playoff teams. Put another way, look at the rotations for teams that made it to the LCS of either league last year. Do you see Sonny Gray or Joe Ryan (and I like them both, and root for them) as better than the top two pitchers for HOU, PHI, NYY or SDP?

Maybe with a good year one of them could be a number 2 or 3 starter on a playoff caliber team. Before this deal, we had two guys who are solid number three playoff-caliber starters. And behind that a collection of 4th and 5th options.

I don't know that Pablo Lopez will be a front-end starter for us, but at this point he's certainly a candidate, and we're now deeper in front-end options than we were. My hunch (and it's only that) is that there weren't many teams willing to deal away front-end talent.

We got what was available. Good luck to Arraez! I'll root for him (until he plays the Twins). But he turned down the contract offer before, and preferred arbitration this winter; clearly seemed ready to move on when he could, and we parlayed his talent into the best starting pitching talent the FO could find.

In nine months' time, toward the end of the season, we'll know if the gamble this deal represents is paying off in the short-term. Right now, I think it was worth the risk.

p.s. MLB.com has put out its list of top 10 prospects for both LHP and RHP. We don't have  guy on either list.

[rwilfong86]

1 minute ago, SkyBlueWaters said:

Respectfully, I think you overrate the rotation before the deal was made. We don't know that Maeda or Paddack will come back from injury and pitch well enough to be close to front-end starters.

I certainly don't put Mahle or Ober toward the front of our rotation. If the point is to last deep in the playoffs, I don't see the Twins currently as having pitching the matches up well enough with the ace or 2nd starter of most playoff teams. Put another way, look at the rotations for teams that made it to the LCS of either league last year. Do you see Sonny Gray or Joe Ryan (and I like them both, and root for them) as better than the top two pitchers for HOU, PHI, NYY or SDP?

Maybe with a good year one of them could be a number 2 or 3 starter on a playoff caliber team. Before this deal, we had two guys who are solid number three playoff-caliber starters. And behind that a collection of 4th and 5th options.

I don't know that Pablo Lopez will be a front-end starter for us, but at this point he's certainly a candidate, and we're now deeper in front-end options than we were. My hunch (and it's only that) is that there weren't many teams willing to deal away front-end talent.

We got what was available. Good luck to Arraez! I'll root for him (until he plays the Twins). But he turned down the contract offer before, and preferred arbitration this winter; clearly seemed ready to move on when he could, and we parlayed his talent into the best starting pitching talent the FO could find.

In nine months' time, toward the end of the season, we'll know if the gamble this deal represents is paying off in the short-term. Right now, I think it was worth the risk.

p.s. MLB.com has put out its list of top 10 prospects for both LHP and RHP. We don't have  guy on either list.

I would say their rotation is full of #3 starters at best which is the take I've given on other posts here on this and other treads.