Twins Trade Luis Arraez for Marlins' Pitcher Pablo López

[Major League Ready]

11 hours ago, rwilfong86 said:

Rogers was garbage for the Twins, I think had the Twins kept him, they would have had similar bullpen meltdowns as they experienced with Duffey and Pagan. My issue with this trade is Lopez is not an Ace. He is another #3 starter. If your team is full of #3 starters, you're probably not gonna see the postseason. He is better than Bundy and Archer yes, but I don't think he was worth dealing the reigning batting champ for.

Having a rotation of #3 starters gives you a good chance of making the post season.  The problem is matching up in the post season once you get there.

Arraez was just not good enough to get an Ace.  It takes a package that is really going to hurt to get an ace and we can't make team's agree.  They want to keep them as badly as we would like to acquire them.  The return of a very good pitcher a top 100 prospect and a third player with a high ceiling is a very good return.  Obviously, this trade has the potential to good badly just like any other trade.  However, the addition of two high ceiling prospects provides the potential for this trade to be very productive trade for the Twins.  I hate to lose Arraez but this is the type of deal, especially with Julien, Martin, and Lee getting close, that can make us better for many years.      

[rwilfong86]

8 hours ago, SwainZag said:

How can your issue with the trade be that Lopez isn't an ace?  Arraez should not bring back an ace.  There are like 10-12 aces in all of baseball.  I would agree I would love for the Twins to acquire one, but having issues with this trade because of that seems like an odd reason.

They're giving up too much in my opinion. They Basically traded a batting champion for a level of pitching quality they already have. So now the Twins have 10 starting pitchers that are all #3 to #5 starters. That's my point. They gave up their leadoff hitter and batting champion for another Sonny Gray. And I might add, another pitcher with a history of injuries. I can't understand how casual fans think this is a good trade. Most of my Marlins fan friends on Facebook think the Twins got fleeced. 

[rwilfong86]

8 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Having a rotation of #3 starters gives you a good chance of making the post season.  The problem is matching up in the post season once you get there.

Arraez was just not good enough to get an Ace.  It takes a package that is really going to hurt to get an ace and we can't make team's agree.  They want to keep them as badly as we would like to acquire them.  The return of a very good pitcher a top 100 prospect and a third player with a high ceiling is a very good return.  Obviously, this trade has the potential to good badly just like any other trade.  However, the addition of two high ceiling prospects provides the potential for this trade to be very productive trade for the Twins.  I hate to lose Arraez but this is the type of deal, especially with Julien, Martin, and Lee getting close, that can make us better for many years.      

He may not have been, but there were other pieces that could have been added to try to land an ace. And the prospects the Twins landed are just prospects. Most of my Marlins fan friends think the Twins got fleeced and I absolutely agree with them. 

[Jeff D.]

Another pitcher for Professor Baldelli to count pitches. Some of the comments on this trade speak about the balky knees of Arraez. That is true, but, funny. Mr. Buxton gets injured sneezing. The majority of the team is in and out with incredible ailments. Yet, Correa played over 130 games last year with an ankle that everyone is worried about and Arraez hit the daylights out of the ball with bad knees. I think we have some mixed up views on our mighty Twins. We lost a great hitter and picked up an average pitcher. If, by some miracle our projected starters all magically get healthy and stay that way this year we are going to be trading pitching next year (or the rest of this year) because we have too many arms. We all know how Professor B. loves to pull them.............

Go Twins!

Twins Geezer glumly signing out!

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, rwilfong86 said:

He may not have been, but there were other pieces that could have been added to try to land an ace. And the prospects the Twins landed are just prospects. Most of my Marlins fan friends think the Twins got fleeced and I absolutely agree with them. 

I pay much more attention to what the national guys think.  They are far more objective.  

[h2oface]

Another right handed #3 to pull in the 4th or 5th inning. 2 more redundant prospects that can't replace any of the hits for years, if ever. 

But hey.... we have a nearly 40 million dollar (with his salary and bonus share for the year) shortstop with a scandalous cheating resume, a 10 million dollar strikeout king instead. You gotta love that. 

Another Lopez to blow up on the Twins. Lopez squared. I can't wait. 

Falvey is just so desparate to make his mark. The pitching experts are still treading water with a team of #3s after 6 years.

[Riverbrian]

Last Year when the Twins traded Taylor Rogers for Paddack. There were many who were concerned about the loss of Rogers but I was OK with the deal because I thought it was a great value trade. I remember saying... you make that trade for a starter every time. 

Well... Here I am today... A great value trade was made... perhaps a better value trade than the Paddack deal. They made that trade for a starter... But, now the shoe is on the other foot because I'm not sure how they replace Arraez offensively much like others were not sure how they replace Rogers in the bullpen last year. 

I guess it's my turn. 

With that said... the season is still the off-season. The Twins have time to find a replacement for Arraez. As things currently stand Celestino would probably make the 26 man and that can't happen. He was not ready for that duty. We have more starters on the 40 man than we need. 

I think the Twins will be moving a starter for a hitter before it's all said and done. 

I'll reserve judgement until the off-season is concluded.  

[Nashvilletwin]

18 hours ago, weitz41 said:

Can't have too much pitching. Can't have too many short stop prospects when you want to trade for an ACE either.

Salas is not a SS prospect - maybe not even an infielder prospect. 

[Nashvilletwin]

18 hours ago, twins_89 said:

I'm fine with the deal. The overall value seems pretty solid and I think the Twins were overstocked on the infield with Kirilloff, Polanco, Correa, Miranda, Arraez, Gordon, and Farmer (plus Lewis, Lee, Austin and Julien potentially to being ready at some point this season).

The Twins have built some pretty good starting pitching depth for upcoming season. The team is still lacking a true #1 starter, but I'd rate the Twins #2-10 starters as being as good a group as there is in the Majors.

Kiriloff may never be back - the risk with his wrist is greater than the risk with Arraez’s knees. Miranda cooled off a lot last year and neither he nor Kiriloff is an upgrade at 1B. Polanco has peaked and may not be on this team by the trade deadline. Gordon and Martin are primarily outfielders. Farmer is a one year stop gap. Lewis, Lee and Julien all have promise for sure - but it’s still just promise. Arraez brought incredible differentiated value to this team and arguably was our second best position player (Buxton playing 80 games doesn’t count). 

[Nashvilletwin]

17 hours ago, beckmt said:

This one hurts, but Gray is 32 and will probably want more years/money than the Twins feel comfortable with.  Mahle had shoulder issues last year and will be at least midseason before Twins feel like possibly offering an extension and Maeda is 34 and Twins should see what he wants, and if doesn't work he walks at the end of the season.  Ryan to me is a #4 starter with some upside.  So where is your ongoing pitching coming from?  Some of the prospects will probably make it, but asking 3 of them for next year seems like a lot.

Julien will be here, and had no open spot. So they made one.  Now the question is what do the Twins do with Polonco? (Kepler is good as gone).  

This is the truth - Lopez protects the Mahle, Gray, Maeda strategy for ‘23 and is the hedge on the ‘24 rotation when none of them are resigned (for whatever reason - pay demands, injury, plain old stink).

[Nashvilletwin]

17 hours ago, CRF said:

Just read that according to their GM, the fish plan to play Arraez at 2nd and move Jazz Chisholm to CF. 

But his knees, right? Lol. 

[Nashvilletwin]

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

I pay much more attention to what the national guys think.  They are far more objective.  

The consensus of the “national press” is exactly reason #1 to question this trade. Group think and parroting one another does not make for good analysis. 

[mikelink45]

With Rod Carew and Luis Arraez setting the standard, I warn any future Twins that winning a batting title is the quickest way out of town.  I just came back from Panama and went by Rod Carew Stadium in Panama City many times.  Perhaps I will see a Luis Arraez stadium someday if I am allowed to return to Venezuela.  

 

[Squirrel]

33 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

With Rod Carew and Luis Arraez setting the standard, I warn any future Twins that winning a batting title is the quickest way out of town.  I just came back from Panama and went by Rod Carew Stadium in Panama City many times.  Perhaps I will see a Luis Arraez stadium someday if I am allowed to return to Venezuela.  

 

Joe Mauer begs to differ. Didn’t he win two, even?

[Squirrel]

3 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Salas is not a SS prospect - maybe not even an infielder prospect. 

That remains to be seen, but for now depends on which source you choose to believe

[Halsey Hall]

Having been at opening day 1961 and a fan ever since, this is the stupidest thing ever happened to the Twins.  Falvey best be ready for my ire when I get there in a couple weeks. I totally hate this move.  I wish Pohlads would sell.

[Shaitan]

17 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

Arraez was my favorite Twin along with Buxton but this is a fair trade. It tells me some things.

1. The Twins think Kirilloff is going to be healthy and ready to go coming out of spring training and he will play 1B.

2. Our long relief is going to be much better than last year as this pushes guys from being starters to there.

3. We think Julien, Martin and Lee are advancing well and one or two of them will be opening day starters in 2024.

4. You never have enough pitching (or SS's in the minors, wow).

5. The Twins training staff has doubts about Arraez's knees more than they doubt Polanco's back/ankle.

My big question, as others have asked, who is going to be our OBP guy so other guys have someone to drive in? I still think Kepler will be traded but, if not, you could have a really good late inning defensive lineup of Vazquez, Farmer (in for Miranda), Correa, Polanco, Kirilloff, Gallo, Buxton and Kepler.

I generally agree, except for #2.

The days of carrying using a roster slot on a designated long reliever are over. I think they're more likely to start with a 6-person rotation and then drop to 5 at the inevitable injury, just like they did last year.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

2 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

Last Year when the Twins traded Taylor Rogers for Paddack. There were many who were concerned about the loss of Rogers but I was OK with the deal because I thought it was a great value trade. I remember saying... you make that trade for a starter every time. 

Well... Here I am today... A great value trade was made... perhaps a better value trade than the Paddack deal. They made that trade for a starter... But, now the shoe is on the other foot because I'm not sure how they replace Arraez offensively much like others were not sure how they replace Rogers in the bullpen last year. 

I guess it's my turn. 

With that said... the season is still the off-season. The Twins have time to find a replacement for Arraez. As things currently stand Celestino would probably make the 26 man and that can't happen. He was not ready for that duty. We have more starters on the 40 man than we need. 

I think the Twins will be moving a starter for a hitter before it's all said and done. 

I'll reserve judgement until the off-season is concluded.  

Having no opinion generates no mouse clicks, so nobody quotes the guy who says he will reserve judgment.

Cheers to not knowing. 🍻 

[Mike Sixel]

21 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

Love this trade. What’s not being discussed enough is the massive upgrade of Lopez and full seasons of Ober/Mahle vs. 60 Bundy/Archer/Smeltzer starts last year. 

Truth. They just replaced a year of Bundy with a year of Lopez, and got a very good prospect and a lottery ticket? I can't believe they got a number 3 pitcher, a top prospect and another young guy in return. 

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, Nashvilletwin said:

The consensus of the “national press” is exactly reason #1 to question this trade. Group think and parroting one another does not make for good analysis. 

You must not follow them at all to think Keith Law has group think....

[Shaitan]

Lots of obsession with "batting champion" as a phrase. 

Arraez is great. But he hit .314. That's not exactly Puckett/Mauer/Carew territory.

[Mike Sixel]

5 hours ago, rwilfong86 said:

He may not have been, but there were other pieces that could have been added to try to land an ace. And the prospects the Twins landed are just prospects. Most of my Marlins fan friends think the Twins got fleeced and I absolutely agree with them. 

Which ace do you think is getting traded right now? I can't think of one.

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, Shaitan said:

Lots of obsession with "batting champion" as a phrase. 

Arraez is great. But he hit .314. That's not exactly Puckett/Mauer/Carew territory.

Two of those had power, and one stole bases..... Two of those were elite defenders. It isn't close.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

6 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Truth. They just replaced a year of Bundy with a year of Lopez, and got a very good prospect and a lottery ticket? I can't believe they got a number 3 pitcher, a top prospect and another young guy in return. 

I knew you’d come around :)

[h2oface]

1 hour ago, Squirrel said:

Joe Mauer begs to differ. Didn’t he win two, even?

3 superfan.

[Squirrel]

6 minutes ago, h2oface said:

3 superfan.

Wow ... you deem me a superfan. Thank you. I don't think I come close to that, but wow, how kind!

[h2oface]

28 minutes ago, Shaitan said:

Lots of obsession with "batting champion" as a phrase. 

Arraez is great. But he hit .314. That's not exactly Puckett/Mauer/Carew territory.

Carew won with .318 in 1972. That's pretty close. Mauer .328 in 2008.  Arraez still has some time as he is only 26 for 2023 season.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

1 hour ago, Nashvilletwin said:

The consensus of the “national press” is exactly reason #1 to question this trade. Group think and parroting one another does not make for good analysis. 

You are not wrong. We had Dick & Bert calling games on TV locally for a long time. You only need to listen to the out of town broadcasters on those rare occasions when the Twins were on a national telecast to know that outsiders don’t know the teams and markets as well as the locals.

So, same with the national baseball press. They are going to make up an opinion of the trade without knowing particulars and without caring how it turns out or being invested in its success or failure. If they turn out to be wrong, no one is going to come back and hold them to it or ask them what they did wrong. Because they have moved on to having an opinion on the next big thing they don’t really care about. Not that the local press is without their own faults…

[Joey Self]

I thought about this overnight. 

I still don't like it. 

JcS

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

31 minutes ago, Shaitan said:

Lots of obsession with "batting champion" as a phrase. 

Arraez is great. But he hit .314. That's not exactly Puckett/Mauer/Carew territory.

Another way to put it is that .314 is actually Arraez’s second worst season batting average. 

Are hits overrated now? Interesting. Well what about hits plus walks? 

Arraez is 14th in MLB in OBP since his debut in 2019. For context, the top of that list includes guys like Trout, Judge, Bryce Harper, Freddie Freeman, Juan Soto, who are the top five. Arraez is in the next tier with Goldschmidt, Betts, and other guys like that. Correa ranks 32nd in OBP since 2019.

Granted, OBP is not the only hitting tool, and Correa is a better overall hitter than Arraez. But OBP is extremely important, it’s the “not making outs” tool that I remember people on this site used to make a big deal about. (until now)