Twins Trade Luis Arraez for Marlins' Pitcher Pablo López

[Riverbrian]

I'll reserve judgement until the off-season is complete. 

I will miss Luis Arraez. I'm a big fan and I thought he was a consistent source of helping the team win and I think he will need to be replaced. 

My expectation is another trade will happen down the line.

This time it will be a starter pitcher for a hitter. 

40 man is a little over full with starters at the moment and the starting lineup is a little light on top of the order guys at the moment.  

I'll keep eating my popcorn and watching. 

[Minfidel]

54 minutes ago, howeda7 said:

Bad move that will go over like a fart in Church with the fan base. Not that they care.

Check back with the fan base at the end of the season. 

[LA VIkes Fan]

This is a tough one, and not for baseball reasons. I don’t think there’s any question that the Twins got the better side of the trade from a talent perspective. Pitching is worth more than hitting for average, and starting pitching is worth a lot more. The BTV ratings are very one sided the Twins way. Getting a solid #2 starter and the Marlins #5 prospect is a great return for a high average/OBP guy with no power, no defensive value, and bad knees. 

Still…. I liked the guy and I’m sorry to see him go. I was hoping they could get Lopez for Kepler and a prospect. Maybe now we trade Kepler for a RH hitting 1B or a solid reliever. I wish we could have kept Arraez but I do understand the trade. 

[chpettit19]

4 minutes ago, Dman said:

Yeah I think I might have discounted Salas too much as he has really good speed and at 6'2" and 190 he is well built.  He has a plus hit tool and when I watched him in Beloit he looked like the best hitter on that team.  Plenty of work to do on his hit tool but he is at High A and only 19.  He is also a switch hitter which is nice.  Still quite a ways away but he has a chance to be pretty special so it looks like the Twins bet on the future a bit with this pick.  Man do they some really interesting shortstops from the DSL to High A now.

Miami had pretty interesting pitching prospects around the top 10 and our pitching pipeline is pretty low.  I kind of thought they would go pitcher but maybe Salas was just too good to pass up.  Will be interesting to see how this one works out.  I am starting to come around to this being a better deal for the Twins than I initially thought.

If he ends 2023 in AA at the age of 20 he'll be a pretty exciting option to have around. But I totally agree and would've thought one of those young arms in their system would've been the target. I'd rather have taken a young arm over Salas and Chourio. But Salas feels like he could be a faster version of Lee, and I'm real excited about Lee. Never mad when they add high upside guys currently playing up the middle.

Lots of cognitive dissonance feeling like they did well in an Arraez for Lopez deal, though. My brain likes it, but my heart doesn't!

[Battle ur tail off]

43 minutes ago, weitz41 said:

That is a substantial return for Arraez. Did I want him traded? No not really. But the FO got way more then I thought they would. Now get to work on some extensions with these pitchers we picked up in the last 12 month..Extend one or two and all these trades look way better!

 

It is substantial, but they targeted the wrong guys. The play here was the pry top of the rotation pitching potential away from them if you are trading the AL batting champ. Even if we'd have had to add, getting Luzardo, Cabrera or one of their top pitching prospects was the way. 

Instead we get a #3 starter and another top infield prospect. One or the other. Get Luzardo or Cabrea. Or take Lopez but insist on pitching a pitching prospect as well. 

[baul0010]

50 minutes ago, adorduan said:

I'm not a fan of this FO, but I love this trade, selling high on Arraez for good pitching.

It was the right move.  Arraez has been known to be on the block for at least a month.  If there was a better trade, they would have done that.  I am sure most front offices would not be willing to give up a lot for a guy with bat to ball skills and no power.   

We need Arraez to pass his physical.  Miami hopefully doesn't get buyers remorse before then.  I am sure Miami could fail his physical and then it would be next to impossible to get anything of value down the line.  

[Beast]

19 minutes ago, howeda7 said:

Lopez isn't directly replacing Archer or Bundy though. He's replacing either Maeda or Ober, which makes the upgrade pretty muted IMO.

Devon Smeltzer started 12 games, Cole Sands 3, Aaron Sanchez 3, Chi Chi Gonzalez 2.  

Only Ryan and Bundy threw more than 120 innings last year.  Nobody threw more than 150.  That’ll likely happen again.  There are plenty of innings to go around.  

[Whitey333]

Not sure how I feel.  I really like Arreaz but realize we need pitching.  Lopez is another pitcher we have that had a history of shoulder problems.  He's been on the DL at least three times for those.  I think we could have gotten more for the batting champion.  Now we will have one less player getting on base.  The two prospects we got one 17 and one 19 are just that.  Prospects.  Not likely to move the needle if at all for 4 years or more.  Why do I have this feeling like we got fleeced again?

 

[MN_ExPat]

21 minutes ago, howeda7 said:

Lopez isn't directly replacing Archer or Bundy though. He's replacing either Maeda or Ober, which makes the upgrade pretty muted IMO.

What?

[Unwinder]

Checking out some Marlins fan reactions, and they're just as mad as we are, so maybe it was a good trade. It looks like Lopez is also a charismatic fan-favorite.

[rwilfong86]

29 minutes ago, MN_ExPat said:

It's totally fair to be bummed (heck even mild depression would not be considered amiss), but this isn't and shouldn't be considered a horrible thing.  Yes, I AM bummed Luis is going to the Fish, but Lopez is considered a good pitcher and the two additional players in the deal really bring added value. 

At the end of the day, both teams walk away helping themselves get better and that is good for baseball as whole.

From everything I've seen Lopez is another #3 level starter. He isn't Alcantara or an ace. Prospects are prospects and equal no guarantee of any success. I disagree that the Twins come away better from this trade, but only time will tell. 

[mickster]

59 minutes ago, Puckett34 said:

I mean, on one hand Luis Arraez is a limited defensively, questionable knee's, and nil power in a position you need it (assuming he primarily plays 1B and DH).

You also acquire a #2-3 rotation player, a top 100 prospect, and a lottery ticket while only giving up the aforementioned Arraez.

On the other hand Arraez is a fan favorite and LUIS ARRAEZ.

I think in the long run this is a great trade for the Twins, but its gonna hurt for a bit.

Luis will be missed by the fans.   However, give to get.   I am still thinking Kepler will be tied with Austin for a RH OF.   This puts Miranda in play for 1B and Farmer at 3B until Royce comes back and slots in most likely at 3B.   Kiroloff, Polanco, Miranda and Correa around the IN.   With Lewis looking to move in at 3B and Lee could be 2B.   1B/DH will be Kirolff, Miranda, Gallo, with Correa taking a breather from the field at times along with Buxton.    the other piece is that 3/5 of the rotation is a FA after 2022.  Lopez and Paddack are locked in longer so there is some future stability projected

[CharlieDee]

My favorite Twin,  gone.

[HawksNest]

Edouard Julien, remember the name for those of you worried about losing Arraez.

Different sort of players in the sense that Julien will hit for a lower average but more power, he'll strike out more, but walk more as well. We're talking about a guy that has a career .437 OBP in the minor leagues and .922 OPS. That my friends is our Luis Arraez, positionless, high OBP replacement. 

[Doctor Gast]

Bryon Chourio looked pretty good in his 1st season in the DR league. He's young so it's hard to evaluate at this point. But he should give the Twins some value down the line.

[rwilfong86]

6 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

Not sure how I feel.  I really like Arreaz but realize we need pitching.  Lopez is another pitcher we have that had a history of shoulder problems.  He's been on the DL at least three times for those.  I think we could have gotten more for the batting champion.  Now we will have one less player getting on base.  The two prospects we got one 17 and one 19 are just that.  Prospects.  Not likely to move the needle if at all for 4 years or more.  Why do I have this feeling like we got fleeced again?

 

I feel the exact way. This front office hasn't been very good at making trades for pitchers so I have this sinking feeling it will be another fleece job.

[Yargwin]

Love the return. How long until Lopez's arm falls off, though? I loved watching Luis play, so the games will be just a little bit less fun without him. 

[weitz41]

32 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Julien profiles better at 1B, I think he has a very good chance of making the team if he shines in ST & Kiriloff doesn't.  Julien could very quickly help us  to get over Arraez

This is a great side effect of this trade. Also thinking down those lines. Gallo has played 1b in the past. A .220 hitter with 35 HR profiles as an at least average 1B offensively.

31 minutes ago, Deadfan said:

Wow so much armchair GMing here...... All we ever here about is comlaining about the Twins lack of a top end starter.....So we trade a guy with failing knees at the likely peak of his value for such a pitcher and now the chorus of complaints rain down? 

 

Yall are never gonna be happy apparently. Are you upset we got C4 as well>???

Truth!

[Sutter50]

35 minutes ago, Deadfan said:

Wow so much armchair GMing here...... All we ever here about is comlaining about the Twins lack of a top end starter.....So we trade a guy with failing knees at the likely peak of his value for such a pitcher and now the chorus of complaints rain down? 

 

Yall are never gonna be happy apparently. Are you upset we got C4 as well>???

Well said 

[DocBauer]

Removing emotion and the love and appreciation for Arraez, more than likely by 2024, the Twins were looking at Lee, Lewis, Martin, and Julien to join Correa, Polanco, Miranda, and Arraez. And that's not even including Kirilloff playing some/mostly 1B.

SOMEONE was going to go in a deal, either now, or next year. It turns out to be Arraez now.  And we can certainly debate the return for the Twins and future re-signings, prospect prognostication for the Miami kids brought back, etc.

But again, someone was getting moved. It was a question of who and when. Now, as I alluded to in my previous post, what about leadoff and 1B?

[howeda7]

11 minutes ago, MN_ExPat said:

What?

What's confusing? The rotation yesterday was Gray, Ryan, Mahle, Ober and Maeda. Today it's Gray, Ryan, Mahle, Lopez and either Ober or Meada. I get it was a general comment on the team, but bringing up Bundy or Archer in regards to this trade is irrelevant.

[jmlease1]

2 minutes ago, rwilfong86 said:

I feel the exact way. This front office hasn't been very good at making trades for pitchers so I have this sinking feeling it will be another fleece job.

I'd say the record is mixed: Joe Ryan was a great trade and a huge win. Maeda? Great that short season, before the elbow let go in 2021, but still might have been worth it. Jury is out on Paddack still; Rogers was bad for SD and worse for MKE so it's not like we really lost anything. (I'm sorry, I don't have much patience for people who insist that Rogers would have been a great closer last season if he hadn't been dealt. Doubtful, yo. very doubtful) Gray was a pretty good acquisition. Jury is out on Mahle; if he has a good year then we're in decent shape there, if he doesn't then they crapped out badly. Simeon Wood Richardson is looking very promising?

I think that's the most significant starting pitching deals they've made until Pablo Lopez...

[goulik]

So a little research tells me that based solely on WAR: 2022/Career

Gray 2.4/24.9

Ryan 2.2/2.6

Mahle 2.2/8.8

Ober 0.9/2.1

Paddack 0,2/2.3

Maeda 0.0/7.6

SWR, Winder, other prospects....

Pablo Lopez 3.0/8.5

This is an obvious upgrade and I don't get all the "Mid-Rotation" stuff when we have been told some of these he is better than are #2's. This is now our best pitcher based on last years numbers and will be at the top of our rotation for the next two years (the second of which will not have Gray, Maeda, and Mahle due to free agency)

Whether or not this is a great trade will always be determined 5+ years down the road but for right now, It looks to meet a need, upgrades a rotation, and maximizes value of a great player at his peak value. Seems like all the things we have been begging for... 

Unfortunately, this is the price of trading for high quality... You give up high quality and it hurts.

[Doctor Gast]

2 minutes ago, weitz41 said:

This is a great side effect of this trade. Also thinking down those lines. Gallo has played 1b in the past. A .220 hitter with 35 HR profiles as an at least average 1B offensively.

Truth!

Yes, Gallo could be a fall back 1B if Kiriloff doesn't work out. But I think it'd be harder for Gallo to help us get over Arraez

[HoskenPowell]

1 hour ago, MMMordabito said:

Vikings lose, Wild win streak ends, Arraez traded.

Well    anyone with eyes could see the Vikings were not going anywhere deep in the playoffs so no idea how anyone could/would cry over their loss.   Horrically bad defenses don't go deep into NFL playoffs...period.

[weitz41]

19 minutes ago, Battle ur tail off said:

It is substantial, but they targeted the wrong guys. The play here was the pry top of the rotation pitching potential away from them if you are trading the AL batting champ. Even if we'd have had to add, getting Luzardo, Cabrera or one of their top pitching prospects was the way. 

Instead we get a #3 starter and another top infield prospect. One or the other. Get Luzardo or Cabrea. Or take Lopez but insist on pitching a pitching prospect as well. 

I'd prefer Luzardo as well but a lot more risk involved. He was a top prospect and then wasn't due to his walk rate was really high the year Oakland traded him. Now I could be wrong but if I remember right Cabrera is a two pitch pitcher and has plenty of reliever risk. Lopez was the safest of the three and after signing Correa I doubt they want to hope the main piece of the trade works out. The prospects are frosting.

[Muppet]

29 minutes ago, Minfidel said:

Check back with the fan base at the end of the season. 

The way things have been going, that is likely to be Arraez hitting .330 for the Mariners and Lopez spending 75% of the year on the IL. 

[Nine of twelve]

38 minutes ago, Beast said:

Holy crap.  I did not see this coming.

Then you must not have been reading these forums for the last couple weeks.

[Doctor Gast]

People complain about our farm system. But these 2 prospect we got from MIA are not some bat/ no glove types. They're pretty athletic that can field as well as hit with speed.

[Nine of twelve]

34 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I'll reserve judgement until the off-season is complete. 

I'll reserve judgement until 10 years from now so we can find out what happens to all four players involved.