Twins Trade Luis Arraez for Marlins' Pitcher Pablo López

[Muppet]

The best pitchers in the league will still lose games if their team can't score any runs. Last year the Twins were bad at pitching, which overshadowed the terrible hitting. They have not made themselves any better in the offseason.
We can now be sure that Arraez will be a HOFer. 

[dose17]

This is a great trade, although won't be popular.

 

We have a new best pitcher.  26 years old with team control and a nice start to his career.

 

We can replace the value Arraez gives us internally.  Arraez moving along makes room for Lewis and/or Lee when they are ready, with Miranda moving over to 1B to share that with Kirilloff.  

[JDubs]

I hate hate hate to see Arraez go. He's definitely my favorite current player and his at bats are appointment television. But between his already extremely-limited defensive abilities and the ticking time bomb of his knees, this feels like the exact sell-high point of his career. And getting back a legit #2 pitcher and global-100 prospect and intriguing 3rd guy just for Arraez sure seems like a steal. It's a deal I hate to love because I'll miss Arraez so much, but it looks really good for the Twinkies.

[jmlease1]

6 minutes ago, howeda7 said:

Trading your best hitter for a mild upgrade to your rotation doesn't improve the 2023 club no matter what. We have no set DH and Larnach and Gallo are not locks to be healthy or effective. A healthy Kiriloff would have gotten full playing time Arreaz or no Arreaz. But I'm sure the A ball prospects we got will be exciting for whoever is running the team in 2028 after Falvey is long gone (hopefully.)

I love Arraez, but I just can't get behind the notion that he's the Twins best hitter. Correa is a better hitter, and healthy I think several other twins are as well (though admittedly some of them have to prove it still, like Kirilloff).

Lopez is a good pitcher and definitely makes the rotation deeper. the question is whether or not he passes the "better than Sonny Gray" test. I think it's unclear. He was more valuable than Gray last season because he was a workhorse and didn't miss a bunch of starts. but the ERA+ was only 108 compared to Gray's 125. Could Lopez get back to those kind of numbers? he's done it before.

That said, this really makes it unlikely that anyone is getting starts for the Twins on scholarship. And after sitting through 77 starts from law firm of Bundy, Archer, Smeltzer, and Winder last season, a rotation of Gray, Mahle, Lopez, Ryan, and Maeda looks much more fun.

I'll miss Arraez. I loved his contact skills and ability to get hits. He was surprisingly good at 1B last season for a dude with little experience there and being pretty short. but we may have seen one of Arraez's best season, because I don't know that he's ever going to add any more power, he's not very good against LHP, and his knees are worse than mine (and I'm old).

It's an interesting deal. I don't love it because I was an Arraez guy. But Lopez is a good pitcher, and getting the #4 Marlins prospect on top of it could be important. (the other player looks like a lottery ticket to me, but sometimes those pan out)

[JDubs]

I hate hate hate to see Arraez go. He's definitely my favorite current player and his at bats are appointment television. But between his already extremely-limited defensive abilities and the ticking time bomb of his knees, this feels like the exact sell-high point of his career. And getting back a legit #2 pitcher and global-100 prospect and intriguing 3rd guy just for Arraez sure seems like a steal. It's a deal I hate to love because I'll miss Arraez so much, but it looks really good for the Twinkies.

[I wish the twins were good]

22 minutes ago, theBOMisthebomb said:

Boo! This stinks if true. 

From mlb trade simulator:

           Total value: 59.30

Lopez	SP	38.8
Salas	SS	20.5

Total value: 26.6

Name	Position	MTV ($Ms)
Arraez	2B	26.6

[chpettit19]

I've been against an Arraez for Lopez deal as I didn't think that was a fair trade for the Twins straight up. I didn't have expectations that they could return Lopez, a top 100 global prospect, and another 17 year old flier. I hate losing Arraez and will have to get the MLB.tv package again so I can still watch his ABs. But this seems like a pretty good trade for the Twins. Even if I'm not a Lopez believer. Hopefully he proves me wrong.

[rwilfong86]

Yep this is a loss. An average pitcher for the batting champion and fan favorite. At least I didn't get an Arraez jersey yet. Oh well. 

[SwainZag]

IF Lopez can pitch like the 1st half Lopez of last year this trade is a great one.  He threw 180 innings last year, and it was his first year throwing more than the 111 he threw in 2019.  The hope is he wore down throughout the season and he can continue to build on that 1st half.  

Luis was my favorite Twin, I really, really seeing him go. 

[howeda7]

15 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

I love Arraez, but I just can't get behind the notion that he's the Twins best hitter. Correa is a better hitter, and healthy I think several other twins are as well (though admittedly some of them have to prove it still, like Kirilloff).

Lopez is a good pitcher and definitely makes the rotation deeper. the question is whether or not he passes the "better than Sonny Gray" test. I think it's unclear. He was more valuable than Gray last season because he was a workhorse and didn't miss a bunch of starts. but the ERA+ was only 108 compared to Gray's 125. Could Lopez get back to those kind of numbers? he's done it before.

That said, this really makes it unlikely that anyone is getting starts for the Twins on scholarship. And after sitting through 77 starts from law firm of Bundy, Archer, Smeltzer, and Winder last season, a rotation of Gray, Mahle, Lopez, Ryan, and Maeda looks much more fun.

I'll miss Arraez. I loved his contact skills and ability to get hits. He was surprisingly good at 1B last season for a dude with little experience there and being pretty short. but we may have seen one of Arraez's best season, because I don't know that he's ever going to add any more power, he's not very good against LHP, and his knees are worse than mine (and I'm old).

It's an interesting deal. I don't love it because I was an Arraez guy. But Lopez is a good pitcher, and getting the #4 Marlins prospect on top of it could be important. (the other player looks like a lottery ticket to me, but sometimes those pan out)

Whether he's a better hitter than Correa is not really the point. This makes the offense significantly worse while making the pitching marginally better. The 2023 team is not improved by this trade. The 2028 team might be, but then what are we doing signing Correa and holding onto Gray/Mahle etc.? Are we trying to win now or not? Contending teams don't trade the reigning AL batting champ and they don't trade their closer on Opening Day. This front office perpetually doesn't know if it's coming or going.

[MN_ExPat]

3 minutes ago, rwilfong86 said:

Yep this is a loss. An average pitcher for the batting champion and fan favorite. At least I didn't get an Arraez jersey yet. Oh well. 

It's totally fair to be bummed (heck even mild depression would not be considered amiss), but this isn't and shouldn't be considered a horrible thing.  Yes, I AM bummed Luis is going to the Fish, but Lopez is considered a good pitcher and the two additional players in the deal really bring added value. 

At the end of the day, both teams walk away helping themselves get better and that is good for baseball as whole.

[DocBauer]

Reponses:

1]BOOOO!

2] Who the hell hits leadoff.

3] Wait, who plays 1B if Kirilloff isn't really good to go?

4] Is Lopez really an improvement over what we have?

5] Another 2yr controlled arm? Any chance of an extension? 

And then I calmed down a bit and reflected.

1] I LOVE Arraez. Probably my favorite player. Been championing his value despite limited power! But I didn't think he'd go straight up for a solid, mid rotation arm with some upside like Lopez. I thought it would take a throw in or 2ndnof some sort.

2] Young and unproven, but the Twins got 2 other prospects thrown in? Including Miami's #5 prospect? I never saw that coming.

I am NOT happy today. But from a purely logical perspective, this trade makes sense. Both teams added and gave up. I'm just not sure about the 2yr window with Lopez. If he's re-signed and has a nice career as a Twins they probably "win" this deal, as we always seem to have to declare one. If he's 2 and gone, I think Miami ends up "winning", FWIW.

BIG question marks at 1B and a table setter for the lineup. What's next?

 

[I wish the twins were good]

10 minutes ago, I wish the twins were good said:

From mlb trade simulator:

           Total value: 59.30

Lopez	SP	38.8
Salas	SS	20.5

Total value: 26.6

Name	Position	MTV ($Ms)
Arraez	2B	26.6

I had assumed this whole time it was Miami that was trying to pry Arraez+ out of the Twins for Lopez, but it was the Twins. And they got a legit high end prospect too. The Twins would have been crazy not to do this. They can replace Arraez' production with players already in the organization (his personality of course - irreplaceable, so perhaps call it a win for Miami in the intangibles department..)

[MN_ExPat]

1 minute ago, howeda7 said:

Whether he's a better hitter than Correa is not really the point. This makes the offense significantly worse while making the pitching marginally better. The 2023 is not improved by this trade. The 2028 team might be, but then what are we doing signing Correa and holding onto Gray/Mahle etc.? Are we trying to win now or not? Contending teams don't trade the reigning AL batting champ and they don't trade their closer on Opening Day. This front office perpetually doesn't know if it's coming or going.

Yes, yes they do.  If they didn't, this wouldn't be baseball.

[Steve Lein]

Hate it. I've been all over the boards stating that Pablo Lopez was the one supposedly available Miami starting pitcher I would NOT trade Luis Arraez for. I care very little that they also got an A-ball "top prospect" back at this point.

[Doctor Gast]

47 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Will they try to extend him?  

Does this result in Martin or Julien making the team this spring.

Julien profiles better at 1B, I think he has a very good chance of making the team if he shines in ST & Kiriloff doesn't.  Julien could very quickly help us  to get over Arraez

[Vanimal46]

Love this trade. What’s not being discussed enough is the massive upgrade of Lopez and full seasons of Ober/Mahle vs. 60 Bundy/Archer/Smeltzer starts last year. 

[Deadfan]

Wow so much armchair GMing here...... All we ever here about is comlaining about the Twins lack of a top end starter.....So we trade a guy with failing knees at the likely peak of his value for such a pitcher and now the chorus of complaints rain down? 

 

Yall are never gonna be happy apparently. Are you upset we got C4 as well>???

[Doctor Gast]

I wish Arraez all the best in MIA. And thank you for your entertaining ABs.

[howeda7]

2 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Love this trade. What’s not being discussed enough is the massive upgrade of Lopez and full seasons of Ober/Mahle vs. 60 Bundy/Archer/Smeltzer starts last year. 

Lopez isn't directly replacing Archer or Bundy though. He's replacing either Maeda or Ober, which makes the upgrade pretty muted IMO.

[howeda7]

5 minutes ago, MN_ExPat said:

Yes, yes they do.  If they didn't, this wouldn't be baseball.

What other contending team has done this recently?

[wavedog]

There is no one I enjoyed batting more than Luis Arraez and I will certainly miss watching him play for the Twins but I like this trade.   We are selling high and I do worry about Arraez durability which his knees, in addition although his defense was good at first he was playing out of position.  I was kind of wondering if we would move Polanco and shift Arraez to 2nd.  In any case, I like all 3 players we received in the deal.  We get a starting pitcher for at least 2 years and you can never have enough pitching and while very young  - like the prospects we got with some speed and plate discipline - not close to Luis Arraez plate discipline for sure but better than we are used to seeing from others here.   Interested to see how many games Kiriloff will be able to start at 1B and who might share the position with him - Miranda with Farmer playing 3B when Miranda plays 1B?  

[PseudoSABR]

4 minutes ago, howeda7 said:

Lopez isn't directly replacing Archer or Bundy though. He's replacing either Maeda or Ober, which makes the upgrade pretty muted IMO.

Starting pitchers are known for their health, right?  Lopez will certainly be replacing starts by the 6, 7, 8 guys as well; it's disingenuous not to admit that. 

[Beast]

Holy crap.  I did not see this coming.

I love watching Arraez.  But, I don’t trust his body to hold up through a long career.  Pretty good return.

[Dman]

27 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I've been against an Arraez for Lopez deal as I didn't think that was a fair trade for the Twins straight up. I didn't have expectations that they could return Lopez, a top 100 global prospect, and another 17 year old flier. I hate losing Arraez and will have to get the MLB.tv package again so I can still watch his ABs. But this seems like a pretty good trade for the Twins. Even if I'm not a Lopez believer. Hopefully he proves me wrong.

Yeah I think I might have discounted Salas too much as he has really good speed and at 6'2" and 190 he is well built.  He has a plus hit tool and when I watched him in Beloit he looked like the best hitter on that team.  Plenty of work to do on his hit tool but he is at High A and only 19.  He is also a switch hitter which is nice.  Still quite a ways away but he has a chance to be pretty special so it looks like the Twins bet on the future a bit with this pick.  Man do they have some really interesting shortstops from the DSL to High A now.

Miami had pretty interesting pitching prospects around the top 10 and our pitching pipeline is pretty low.  I kind of thought they would go pitcher but maybe Salas was just too good to pass up.  Will be interesting to see how this one works out.  I am starting to come around to this being a better deal for the Twins than I initially thought.

[howeda7]

Just now, PseudoSABR said:

Starting pitchers are known for their health, right?  Lopez will certainly be replacing starts by the 6, 7, 8 guys as well; it's disingenuous not to admit that. 

That's true. But then it's an upgrade over Winder/Varland/SWR. Archer and Bundy are irrelevant. They're not here, and no other cheap crappy veteran was going to make the starts Lopez will now make. If he makes 30 starts, probably 20 of them are in place of Maeda or Ober with the rest Winder etc.

[cHawk]

48 minutes ago, howeda7 said:

Trading your best hitter for a mild upgrade to your rotation doesn't improve the 2023 club no matter what. We have no set DH and Larnach and Gallo are not locks to be healthy or effective. A healthy Kiriloff would have gotten full playing time Arreaz or no Arreaz. But I'm sure the A ball prospects we got will be exciting for whoever is running the team in 2028 after Falvey is long gone (hopefully.)

Losing Arraez does weaken the offense but he’s by no means our “best hitter” when we have Carlos Correa.

[wsnydes]

9 minutes ago, howeda7 said:

Lopez isn't directly replacing Archer or Bundy though. He's replacing either Maeda or Ober, which makes the upgrade pretty muted IMO.

True, but that pushes Maeda and/or Ober down the rotation one more slot so they're an upgrade over whatever pitcher du jour occupied that spot.  The impact is a trickle down thing.

[HawksNest]

I get that folks are upset to see Arraez go, I am too, but if we remove the emotion or "fan" glasses from the situation and consider the context of the move, etc. then it makes clear that this is a pretty good move for the Twins.

Arraez was a joy to watch, but let's face it, he was an undersized, positionless, slap hitter, with bad knees that has battled injuries every season. 

I think some of you are underselling how good Pablo Lopez really is. The guy had a 2.92 ERA last year if you remove his starts against the Mets (for whatever reason, the Mets REALLY had his number last year). 

This stretches the rotation even deeper and for the first time I can remember, we have 5 LEGIT starting pitchers (I know non of them are aces).

We also add a top 100 prospect that likely slides into a top 5 spot in our organization. 

[wsnydes]

Just now, cHawk said:

Losing Arraez does weaken the offense but he’s by no means our “best hitter” when we have Carlos Correa.

Or a healthy Buxton.