The Twins Continue to Deal in Distressed Assets

[Cody Christie]

Minnesota's front office continues to collect players with injury concerns. Will these distressed assets come back to haunt the Twins?

Image courtesy of Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have followed different trends since taking the Twins' front office reins. Those trends include the types of players they target in the draft process, using a patient approach in the offseason, and acquiring players that some may consider distressed assets. Some distressed assets have provided value for the Twins, but others have been unmitigated disasters. Can the Twins find a way to be successful while following this player acquisition trend?

Reasons for this Trend 
The current front office has placed a premium value on acquiring players on good contracts or with multiple years of team control. There is risk involved with long-term deals for free-agent players, and the Twins typically aren't swimming in the deep end of the free-agent market. However, there have been multiple instances when a player's value had dropped enough that the Twins were comfortable offering multi-year deals. Minnesota was willing to make the highest offer because the front office felt the player would provide enough value in the contract's early years to make up for the back end. 

On the pitching side, Minnesota has recently traded for multiple arms, and there have been injury concerns with some of those acquisitions. Trading for any pitching asset comes with some level of trepidation. Last season, Twins fans clamored for the team to acquire Frankie Montas, but he was traded to the Yankees and will start the 2023 season on the injured list because of a shoulder injury. Only some pitchers can perform at a high level after a trade. 

Also, the Twins value the prospects this regime has accumulated, so they have shown a hesitancy to deal top prospects for pitching assets. That made last year's trade deadline so intriguing because it looked like the front office was putting the team in the best position to win. Unfortunately, recent seasons haven't played out in the team's favor. 

Distressed Assets: Pitchers
Sam Dyson was one of this front office's first significant trade deadline deals in 2019. His Twins' tenure was disastrous as he allowed nine earned runs in 11 1/3 innings while making multiple trips to the Injured List. Eventually, he revealed that he had been pitching through shoulder discomfort for multiple weeks. The Twins tried to investigate if the Giants knew anything about his injury before the trade. There were no signs of his injury or poor performance before the trade, so this deal looks like bad luck for the Twins. He hasn't pitched in professional baseball since 2019 because of sexual assault allegations and a suspension. 

Leading into the 2020 season, the Twins traded for Kenta Maeda from the Dodgers. Los Angeles expressed concerns about Maeda's elbow when he initially signed in 2016, and that's why he signed an incentive-laden contract. He pitched nearly 590 innings with the Dodgers before being traded and showed no signs of his elbow being an issue. His first season in Minnesota couldn't have gone much better, as he posted a 2.70 ERA while leading baseball with a 0.75 WHIP. Maeda's performance declined in 2021, forcing him to undergo Tommy John surgery. He pitched over 760 big-league innings before his elbow gave out, so this wasn't a red flag before the trade. 

Minnesota recently finished an extension with Chris Paddack to keep him with the organization through the 2025 season and delay free agency by one year. The Twins acquired Paddack leading into the 2022 season after he dealt with a sprained UCL at the end of the 2021 season. He pitched well in limited action last season, and the Twins are hoping he can return in 2023 following his second Tommy John surgery. His extension gives the Twins some cost certainty and has the potential for Paddack to provide the team upside over the next three seasons. 

Tyler Mahle was arguably the Twins' most prominent trade deadline acquisition in 2022. The front office attempted to add a playoff-caliber starter to the rotation, but it came at a cost. Shortly before the trade, Mahle missed time with a shoulder injury, and those issues continued with the Twins. He couldn't help the team down the stretch, and now there are questions about his health entering the 2023 campaign. Mahle is a free agent at season's end, and the Twins hope his off-season regime has built up his shoulder enough to provide value at the rotation's front end. 

Distressed Assets: Position Players
Entering the 2020 season, the Twins planned to target free-agent starting pitching, but the market didn't work out in the club's favor. Instead, Josh Donaldson was still available because of lingering injury concerns and the fact that he was in his mid-30s. Minnesota hoped that Donaldson could be an asset to help push the team to postseason success. However, he didn't appear in either playoff game during his Twins tenure. Luckily, the Twins were able to trade Donaldson, which helped pave the way for signing Carlos Correa. 

Carlos Correa 's free agent journey has been well documented in recent weeks, but there's no question he remains with the Twins because of long-term health concerns. Minnesota offered a front-loaded contract that is very team friendly, but there are risks involved with any free-agent signing. Even Byron Buxton 's extension can be viewed as a distressed asset, because of his long-running injury concerns. The Twins' success is now tied to Correa and Buxton staying healthy. Minnesota's line-up should have two of baseball's best hitters if both players perform up to expectations. 

Are you concerned with Minnesota's trend of acquiring distressed assets? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

 

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[chpettit19]

So they didn't know Dyson was hurt before they traded for him, but he still counts as part of a purposeful trend of acquiring "distressed assets?" Not sure that really tracks.

Maeda had no injury concerns in 4 seasons in LA, but he still counts as part of a purposeful trend of acquiring "distressed assets?" Not sure that really tracks.

I'd argue Mahle wasn't a "distressed asset" either. At least the price they paid for him didn't suggest they were buying low on a "distressed asset" at all. But I'll give you that one even if I don't buy the premise.

That's 4 players (Mahle, Paddack, Donaldson, and Correa) in 6 seasons. Not sure I'd consider that a trend. Really it's just a handful of players that give fans something to complain about.

[EGFTShaw]

This is much ado about nothing.  Seriously.

Paddock?  Keeping a pitcher on staff while he recovers at $2.5M.  Big Mike was a good example of doing this. 

FrankieM - I was not on board with this, (and I am NOT the FO...LOL), but he didn't move the needle enough to warrant swinging a trade.  If I had Garret Cole, sure because the Frankie fills in a need of a quality 3-4 starter.

Donaldson - it wasn't his injuries that BIT the Twins.

Correa - this speculative bashing of Correa over 1 Drs report, (SFG and NYM used the same Dr), is ludicrous. 
Dyson - bad example as there was no indication of an injury.

The point of the thread was, at least as I interpreted it, was the Twins investing in players with a known injury history. 

The only ones listed here that really fits that premise is Paddock and it's for $2.5M for a player that could be an MLB starter and Buxton who everyone agrees that if he performs as at his injured rate is still a bargain.

[Major League Ready]

Pitchers get hurt.  Texas traded Clause for Kluber and got nothing.  SanDiego traded multiple players for Clevinger and got nothing.  Sale has been hurt.  Johnny Cueto was hurt or underperformed 5 of his 6 year contract, etc.  There is some luck involved.

[GKuehl]

I would add Buxton to this list because the only reason we were able to sign him to a deal for less than $300 million was his injury history. 

However, I don't think this is necessarily a troubling trend (if you want to call it a trend). Minnesota isn't a glamorous place that free agents flock to, and we're a mid-market team that can't usually swim in the deep end with the Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Red Sox, etc. We have to take calculated risks on players we otherwise might not be able to acquire at such rates. For every Mahle who came back to bite us, there's a Kenta Maeda who has been quite successful compared to his cost (both in terms of $ and Graterol going back to the Dodgers in that trade). 

[Craig Arko]

No, I am not concerned. 

[EGFTShaw]

I think what has BITTEN us over and over again is the idea of being able to pull miracles out of the scrap bin.

I'm all for bargain shopping and hoping you strike lightning in a bottle, but it cannot be your primary way of fixing your problems.

Starting last off season with Buxton, this is the first time I have seen the Twins in the course of 12 months seriously try to improve the team.

Say what you want about how C4 fell into our lap last spring, but if our FO had not been creative we would not have C4 now.  After the bad taste left by SFG and NYM, C4 and his family appreciate the MN Nice.  

And C4 is the trailblazer.  The Twins could continue, with proper restraint, this trend.

[Stew]

I don't like them grabbing players that have known issues. If they would have used the money available for Mahle, paddock, pagain, they would have had 19 million to spend on one starter. And they could have kept Taylor Rodgers. That in retrospect would have been enough to win there division.

[wsnydes]

There's two ways to look at this.  One, is that the FO is simply ignoring the injury history in hopes that the ppl layer stays healthy and the upside of a deal pans out.  The second is to recognize that players like this tend to come cheaper and yet still pose some upside should they stay, or even while, they stay healthy.  Either way, they're trying to capitalize on upside.  Given that many of these deals, particularly with pitchers, are short term deals they're trying to maximize the potential of catching lightning in a bottle while also minimizing long term risk.

Some of the players listed here don't really fit into this conversation, in my opinion.  There's always a risk for players to get injured.  It's exceedingly rare that a player has a long career without so injuries.  

I'm not sure I completely agree with the FO's approach on injury prone players, but I also don't think they're as careless about it as some suggest.

[awmonahan]

Yes, I am concerned. In order to win, this approach requires all or the majority of players with injury histories to have a healthy year. That is hard to do. I still think the best, most recent example of this is the Nationals in 2019. It almost took the stars aligning to keep Strasburg, Scherzer, Rendon and others healthy for that run, but they won the World Series. Since then....it's ugly. 

The good news is that the Twins have started to deal in higher-end players with injury histories, rather than the Sam Dysons of the world. You could conceivably put Buxton and Correa (Paddack and Mahle, not quite as much) in the category of players the Nationals won with, so at least the reward might now be worth the risk. 

There are still two points in this approach from the Twins that I do not understand:

1) You have to have a very good medical/training staff to take this approach. The Twins just changed theirs due to these concerns. Hopefully that fixes this problem. BUT, in a state that has some of the best quality ratings in healthcare its absurd it took this long (and is still pending results from the new team). I look at the T'Wolves and their partnership with Mayo Clinic and wonder if the Twins are missing something that a team with a pathetic history are doing right (admittedly, the T'Wolves certainly have their injury issues as well). 

2) If you are taking big risk/reward swings with your star players, it would be nice to minimize variance with your supporting players and bullpen. The Twins are not doing this. Instead, there's huge reliance on young, unproven players and little to no investment in the bullpen. 

Skipping or skimping on the above leaves the team open for a huge variance in results. I am tired of first round exits too, but you can't lose in the playoff if you don't make it at all. I get that there are budgets and a million priorities, but I think the overall approach to taking on players with injury histories could be more unified.

[Whitey333]

The Twins need to change their philosophy just a little IMO.  Taking gambles on injured or injury prone players is very risky and only seldom works out.  There will always be risks with players injuries and performance.  My beef is that this is done way too often.  This team needs some stability.  I kind of see the FO in a room with their fingers crossed hoping it all works.  My belief is if they continue poor play the FO will be taking their finger crossing philosophy to another place.

[h2oface]

This article totally distresses me.

[Cory Engelhardt]

I honestly don't really understand the premise this article surmises.

Dyson was pitching through pain with the Giants prior to the trade, but didn't have a physical prior to the deal. Were there ANY mention of him being hurt prior to the deal? I don't recall that. 

Maeda got hurt and needed tommy john more than a year after the deal happened, and was 2nd in cy young voting in 2020. This one REALLY seems like a stretch to say the least.

Paddack, there were questions, but we'll have to see how the next 3 years play out too no? They got him for one year of a reliever, and also got a prospect. I never had issue with the trade at the time and still don't.

Donaldson, yes they were able to sign him to a solid deal. I'm glad he is "helping" the Yankees now, and I'm glad they were aggressive in moving him after the first portion of his contract. 

Mahle, he had tired arm, but from all accounts he was healthy prior to the deal, his arm is still healthy, and he was ready to throw late September had the team not just fallen all the way off the cliff. He is healthy now, and should be in line for a strong 2023 season. To say he is hurt or dealing with anything is more guessing than anything, but no injury has actually happened. Even in the article you say "And now there are questions about his health going into 2023" Where in the world has that been reported?

Montas, he is a Yankee. 

[bloggymcbloggerson]

i am once again asking this fan base to stop worrying about everything for just one gd second

[Trov]

15 hours ago, Stew said:

I don't like them grabbing players that have known issues. If they would have used the money available for Mahle, paddock, pagain, they would have had 19 million to spend on one starter. And they could have kept Taylor Rodgers. That in retrospect would have been enough to win there division.

Please name the 1 starter they could have had for 19 million that would have put them over the top?  Also, how would Rodgers, who had a terrible season after May.  He got worse as the season went on, but okay having a guy with negative WAR would have helped us.  According to baseball reference, Pagan had -0.4 WAR, and Rogers had -0.7 WAR.  Logic would suggest Rogers would not have made the difference.

I also cannot think of a single starter we could have signed for 1 year 19 million that would have made a difference. If you can please let me know. 

[Trov]

First, if the team is targeting "distressed assets" as you put them, that is an issue.  However, as many have pointed out, outside of Paddock and Mahle I do not think that is really an issue.  You left out Big Mike who they signed to 2 year deal, knowing the first year was a rehab year, that is a much better example. 

If the Twins are using the fact that they can sign certain players that maybe they would not normally be in on because their is risk of injury then so be it.  Yes, we signed CC because other teams were not willing to take risk of 13 or 12 year deals, as they had offered, but that just opened the door.  Is he "distressed asset" because he has a potential red flag for injury then okay, but he has not shown any issue of that injury in his career.  

To me, the signing of Big Mike, and extension of Paddock is really the only instances where they spent bigger money on a player that may not give much value due to injury risk. The traded players are players that had history known or unknown but any guy, particular pitcher, could come up with injury.  Some people think a pitcher not having TJ is a red flag because most get it at one point in career now.  

[Cris E]

This isn't the problem you think it is for two reasons: most pitchers get hurt at some point so you just have to live with that, and contracts that price the injuries in can leave you the money to mitigate the gaps by having better backups on hand. 

Most pitching assets are distressed or soon will be. That is, MLB pitchers get seriously hurt all the time.  Jon Roegele, a SABR researcher writing for the Hardball Times in 2018, did an article on Tommy John surgery that said 26 percent of major league pitchers used in 2017 had undergone Tommy John surgery.  Today that percentage is 34%, and that's only the most serious elbow work, not shoulder, back, knee or hand injuries. His updated raw data is online here and it's fascinating. He's got every TJ surgery that he can confirm for MLB and MiLB players, including a list of unconfirmed and pending surgeries.  Pitchers break, and break badly, all the time. 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gQujXQQGOVNaiuwSN680Hq-FDVsCwvN-3AazykOBON0/edit#gid=0

As far as contracts go, Buxton was way below the market because he missed a ton of games and is expected to continue to miss games, but he'll get paid well when he stays healthy. Correa's deal was half the length that NYM and SFG were offering because of his health history. And even with those two studs on the roster we have acres of space on the payroll to accommodate whatever we need. We haven't spent it because we have a roster full of youth and uncertainty and it seems better to see what we have in the spring and go shopping again later rather than continue scraping the bottom of the barrel this month just because some fans can't wait for spring. 

At the bare minimum Maeda and Mahle are big additions to a rotation that was good when healthy last year. If they can improve on Bundy and Archer's work the whole roster changes starting with the bullpen workload. This focus on process has to leave room for things to work, not resolve themselves imediately.

[BuxtonBonanza]

I think most players in the modern era will have issues some more problematic than others so it is all a calculated risk. Correa is but so is DeGrom for the Rangers (pitched 38 games in the last 3 seasons) or Judge for the Yankees (who had a partially collapsed lung at one point!). I think the Twins have had particularly bad luck with Mahle and Paddock which does influence some of our perceptions but if a player has a few years of service time, they are probably dinged up one way or another before a trade or FA. 

[dex8425]

20 hours ago, Stew said:

I don't like them grabbing players that have known issues. If they would have used the money available for Mahle, paddock, pagain, they would have had 19 million to spend on one starter. And they could have kept Taylor Rodgers. That in retrospect would have been enough to win there division.

Rogers sucked last year so it's reasonable to conclude he may not have helped us at all. That trade didn't help either team. Maybe SDP benefited just by not having Pagan. 

[Stew]

Rodgers had more saves in the first half of the year than anyone the twins have had in a few years. He ended up with more than 30 saves. Almost all with sd. How many did our staff have total. Dont count the 20 plus that Lopez had with Baltimore.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

The Twins traded away Mr Balky knees….

maybe injuries are a part of the game?

[JD-TWINS]

On 1/19/2023 at 5:33 PM, EGFTShaw said:

This is much ado about nothing.  Seriously.

Paddock?  Keeping a pitcher on staff while he recovers at $2.5M.  Big Mike was a good example of doing this. 

FrankieM - I was not on board with this, (and I am NOT the FO...LOL), but he didn't move the needle enough to warrant swinging a trade.  If I had Garret Cole, sure because the Frankie fills in a need of a quality 3-4 starter.

Donaldson - it wasn't his injuries that BIT the Twins.

Correa - this speculative bashing of Correa over 1 Drs report, (SFG and NYM used the same Dr), is ludicrous. 
Dyson - bad example as there was no indication of an injury.

The point of the thread was, at least as I interpreted it, was the Twins investing in players with a known injury history. 

The only ones listed here that really fits that premise is Paddock and it's for $2.5M for a player that could be an MLB starter and Buxton who everyone agrees that if he performs as at his injured rate is still a bargain.

Mahle was on IL in early July of ‘22 in Cincinnati. I live in Cincinnati ……..really wanted Twins to focus on Luis Castillo!!!!! He is worth whatever we needed to add - exactly what everyone has been saying we need ALL off-season. Did anyone catch him down the stretch or in playoffs? ACE!

That said, Mahle is OK……probably similar to López, as long as he isn’t throwing too many pitches trying to strike out everybody he faces! IF he gets healthy, & others can get out to the mound, it should be a nice 2023.

Mahle - López - Ober - Gray - Ryan

150  -  180  -  120  -  140  -  170 

Hopeful starter innings pitched……52% of baseline year. Winder - 75 innings as starter …….Varland - 65 innings as starter ……..SWR - 60 innings as starter………..this gets us to 65% of total innings.

PEN:

Maeda - Jax - Megill - Duran - Moran - Thielbar - Alcala - FA ……. (Fulmer or Chafin) OR J. Lopez 

Winder - Varland - SWR with options in the Wings.

Hopefully, we continue to pursue pitching through Spring Training!

Gotta move Pagan - Celestino - Kepler & probably a guy like Martin or other IF prospect (not Lee nor Lewis). Gotta get a starter or an excellent reliever for this group!

[dxpavelka]

no

[Brandon]

Dyson doesnt belong in the article.  but you know who does?  Pineda.  the original injured pickup for the Twins.  They signed him to rehab.

Mahle is also  a little iffy.  

Donaldson's calves were well documented and that wasn't a problem here.  

Maeda was a risk but not with the way his contract was structured.  He does count though.  

Padduck Yep he was was a risk and is TJ'd again.  

Correa is not a distressed asset.  He has an ankle that may cause issues down the line.  but he hasn't missed time as a result and his contract reflects that risk with the lower number of years guaranteed.  

and I am not sure that Minnesota was all that close to acquiring Montas.  

Buxton's contract was reflective of his injury but yes this one counts.  

The contracts of the players who are of the injured variety have contracts to deal with the risk properly.  And the Team does have depth to handle some of the injuries.  Are these players the ones who were so injured we gave away the division last year?  

Do Ober and Alcala count?  what about Duran, he was injured the year before he came up?