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Have the Twins Improved the Roster this Winter?


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The offseason is quickly nearing its close and we are something like a month away from pitchers and catchers reporting for Spring Training. Although the offseason is not done for the Minnesota Twins, and Derek Falvey still has work to do, can the argument be made that the roster is already better?

Image courtesy of © Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Coming into the winter, it was beyond evident that Carlos Correa was the chief focus for the front office. We saw them come up short on initial dollars, and then things came full circle when his re-signing saved the offseason. Save may need to be used loosely as we still have plenty of areas to see Minnesota improve, but through three major signings, it’s worth wondering if they have already accomplished that goal over 2022.

Christian Vazquez over Gary Sanchez
Minnesota gambled on Sanchez being better in a new situation. His greatest asset may have been helping the Twins dump Josh Donaldson, and while that was beneficial, his play was not so much. His 89 OPS+ tied a full-season career low, and although his framing skills took a step forward, he was still relatively atrocious defensively. The Twins hoped that Sanchez could regain his 2019 All-Star form, but that was not meant to be.

There is no certainty that Vazquez is a better player offensively, but there should also be no question about who has a safer floor. Vazquez was coming off winning a World Series with the Houston Astros and posted a 99 OPS+. Minnesota hopes to avoid his 77 OPS+ in 2021, but the 95 OPS+ dating back to 2019 makes him virtually league average. He’s a solid defender and a great clubhouse presence. Even if marginally, the Twins should stand to benefit here.

Joey Gallo over Max Kepler
Presumably, the Twins will eventually whittle down their outfield. At the moment, they are extremely left-hand-heavy, and there are probably too many mouths to feed when it comes to playing time. With Gallo being signed for a one-year deal, he could start in left field or at first base, but the assumption would be that Minnesota makes a move to deal Kepler. Gallo had a down 2022 but has extreme athleticism, and his 117 OPS+ from 2017-2021 is much more productive than Kepler’s 101 OPS+.

The problem for Kepler has never been on defense. He’s a similar Gold Glove-caliber talent in right field, but he has only ever put it together with the bat once. Outside of his Bomba Squad breakout year, Kepler has insisted on hitting the ball with less-than-ideal trajectories. He continues to give himself little room for opportunity at the dish, and his time in Minnesota trying to work through it has run its course. This may be a wash if Gallo bottoms out again, but Minnesota stands to gain on this move big time.

Carlos Correa over Everyone
Initially, this could have been argued as Correa over Kyle Farmer. You could have even included internal options such as Jorge Polanco and Nick Gordon, but Minnesota would never entertain those. Correa being brought back isn’t a gain, as he manned the position a season ago, but there is no denying that anyone playing this role instead would have been a lesser option.

The Twins have a shortstop on a Hall of Fame trajectory for his second year with the Twins. He’s now acclimated to a new team and city while being able to further expand on a leadership process he took alongside Byron Buxton. It wasn’t the most likely of ways to bring him back, but Minnesota got it done.

Rocco Baldelli’s team has not yet added the starting pitcher they covet, but Kenta Maeda being back for 2023 is a win. The bullpen has yet to be filled out, and Michael Fulmer has departed, but both Jorge Lopez and Emilio Pagan were retained as acquired holdovers. As a whole, and even having made just three key moves, you should be able to argue that Minnesota is better than they were a year ago. Health will remain important again, and finishing this offseason by continuing to add is a must, but the Twins will be relevant in the Central again.


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I fully expect more moves, but at this point I’d consider the following…

- Correa obviously a push since we had him last season.

- Vasquez a plus over Sanchez.

- Farmer a push with the loss of Gio Urshela.

Therefore, slight improvement 

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I think it’s a tenuous argument that they’re improved at this point since the OF is a question mark at all 3 positions just like it was at the end of last season.

Vazquez should be a good improvement over Sanchez/Jeffers.

The pitching staff may or may not be better depending on health of Maeda and Mahle and whether Joe Ryan can keep living on high fastball count. I have the most confidence in Ober and Gray. If Ryan continues to improve and the other two are healthy, we’ve got something. That’s a lot f ifs. Bullpen could use at least Fulmer and Chafin.

I’d add Profar to play LF (Nash Walker pointed out how Twins LF were 24th in WAR last year), trade for CJ Cron at 1B, sign Duvall for a big lefty masher and consider moving Kepler, Polanco, Kirilloff, Larnach (not all of them) for more pitching, hopefully Pablo Lopez and his 3.52 ERA over the last 3 years

1. Arraez 2B

2. Profar LF

3 Correa SS

4 Miranda 3B

5 Buxton CF

6 Cron 1B

7 Gallo RF

DH Gordon

C Vázquez

Play ball!

7

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17 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

I fully expect more moves, but at this point I’d consider the following…

- Correa obviously a push since we had him last season.

- Vasquez a plus over Sanchez.

- Farmer a push with the loss of Gio Urshela.

Therefore, slight improvement 

Bigfork guy makes a lot of sense ...

Bullpen still needs help , I'm not sold on a few ...

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I agree.  Just a slight improvement.  At this point not nearly enough to even win the central division.  After investing about 25% of payroll into one player I hope whatever payroll money is left will be spent wisely.  As it stands today this team has way too many holes on its roster to be a serious contender.  I am expecting some meaningful additions to the team.

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The only improvement has been Vazquez over Sanchez. If both Gallo and Kepler play instead of one over the other then they went backwards in the hitting department. It was good to get rid of the hole in the lineup when Sano went down and thus not re-signed but Gallo will fill his shoes easily by providing that hole once again. Farmer might be slight upgrade over Urshela only due to his versatility and ability to play catcher in a pinch. They've done nothing to improve the pitching however it might BE better due to improved health, which isn't a given with this team. We'll see.

 

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I would say marginal improvement, a new trainer will help and Vázquez/Farmer/Gallo are decent pickups. Correa being back is huge confidence-wise, I’d say they need to make a substantial move in the pitching staff to have a A+ off-season, get an Ace and a good high-end reliever.

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I don’t understand the comments that we have not upgraded our starting pitching.  Correct me if I’m wrong, but Mahle and Maeda were not in the rotation for most of ‘22. This year they both should break camp with the team.  Also, Ryan and Ober are both a year older with more experience - they both should enter this season with the expectation to be better than where they were at the beginning of last season.

We will see how healthy Maeda and Mahle turn out to be, but there is no way this year’s rotation out of camp isn’t significantly better on paper than last year’s. 

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The team looks good going into spring training.  I would like to see 1 more major league reliever signed and if we trade Kepler in a deal for a starting pitcher that would put the finishing touches on a solid offseason.  Really the big need for this coming season is avoiding injuries.  Though we do have lots of depth to handle injuries except the pen……

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Yes, the Twins have a better team today than they had at the beginning of last season and they have also improved their roster since the season ended. There is still an opportunity to make the squad better too.

Gary Sanchez played better than I expected but if Christian Vasquez can stay healthy all year the pitchers will love him;  possibly the biggest improvement.

The injured have healed over the past few months and good health alone should be the Twins best hope. Signing Correa and trading for Farmer were also improvements. I'm not a fan of Joey Gallo but he can be effective if he can hit .240. The pitching staff should be improved too because they have gained experience, and again, the return to health of Mahle, Maeda, and Alcala should make a difference. Is it also possible that Ober and Winder pitch through an entire season free of injuries?

Improvement is needed because the gap between Cleveland and Minnesota was significant last year and this coming season will also include a more balanced schedule. The teams in the AL Central will need to step it up, which is why the Twins need to complete one or two good trades.

 

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If the players stay on the field and play, then we improve just because of that. It wouldn't be hard to improve the performance of Mahle and Paddack (and Maeda) from nothing to something. Can Pagan get worse? Three years running as one of the worst relievers in MLB says yes. "Tell me about the rabbits stuff again, George......" And don't forget the long term core contract - Randy Dobnak will finally be ready again, right?. I don't see a big improvement. The FO is going on hope and potential, and hoping for health. If Buxton stays on the field, Kepler isn't traded and benefits from the no shift rules, Correa actually plays well all year..... it could be great. 

Gallo for Kepler? I don't see it. Gallo has replaced Sano at the plate. Not too exciting

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3 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Yes, the Twins have a better team today than they had at the beginning of last season and they have also improved their roster since the season ended. There is still an opportunity to make the squad better too.

Gary Sanchez played better than I expected but if Christian Vasquez can stay healthy all year the pitchers will love him;  possibly the biggest improvement.

Just curious.... did you expect him to have worse than the worst season of his career?

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I'd say the pitching and catching is improved. Maybe the BP depending on where Maeda ends up. Assuming good health, which after last years I wouldn't want to plan on. Mahle, Maeda and Lopez should be upgrades over Bundy, Archer and Smith. Vázquez is a defensive improvement over Sanchez.

Gallo is essentially an outfield version of Sano. This move I can not get behind...Yes I know he plays better defense. He may take at bats away from the other 6? left handed corner outfielders. If the plan is to trade an outfielder or two, Adding another redundant outfielder can not improve their trade value... Plus we still IMO need a right hand power bat and may have been better off keeping Sano around than signing Gallo.

So depending on health I think the pitching is improved. Infield (no urshela) probably worse. Outfield better defense worse offense.

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When someone comes out with analysis of the data available to show the effect of the shift ban  you can pass judgement on Kepler and Gallo

There is another month for the Twins to make trades, and do the bullpen gem mining. So far they have a better catcher. Pretty much the difference will be relative health of the team and bounce backs from injury. 

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It should go without saying the Twins are in a better position now then the beginning of last year, first Archer and Bundy aren't on the team, but there is more reasons, Duran being a know commodity , Gordon proving he is a capable major league player, Miranda being up, a set spot for Arraez (1B or DH), Laranch and AK having to fight to a starting spot or even a major league job. What Moran, SWR, Varland did last year, Having Lopez and Mahle all year. Every team should be better at this point than they were last year or the FO should be fired. The real questions ares can Rocco be a better manager and can the players stay healthy. Both of them I am unsure of.

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I think part of the question is what are you comparing the Twins to when you ask if they've improved this winter. If it's against opening day from last year it's an interesting question: do you include the deadline deals or not? Re-signing Correa doesn't improve the team from last opening day, of course, but having Mahle & Lopez certainly do...but weren't brought in over the winter. 

If you're comparing it to where the Twins were at the end of the season, then you don't get any better by re-signing Correa...but having healthy players again certainly improves the team a heck of a lot.

Vazquez looks like an upgrade over Sanchez; Gary really struggled at the plate (in comparison to where he was hoped to be) and while I don't expect much more from Vazquez the defense will almost certainly be quite a bit better. Farmer over Urshela? Kinda feels like a push, but gives the infield better balance, as Farmer is much more capable at SS than Urshela. Gio's a better hitter, but is sliding down the defensive scale. Gallo...who knows with Gallo. potentially better than Kepler? Probably better than Larnach or Kirilloff's production last year at the plate, but might not be better at the plate than either. Will be better defensively. Getting Maeda back could be significant, but wasn't exactly a winter move...he just got healthy like a lot of guys and is available again.

This was a playoff team last season before the injuries wrecked the squad. We were playing our 10th choice in the OF towards the end of the season and except for Wallner weren't even playing prospects out there. This team looks better than last year's opening day squad (fewer questions in the bullpen, deeper rotation, similar lineup) and is definitely better than the squad we had at the end of the year where they fell apart after leading the division for much of the year.

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6 hours ago, h2oface said:

Just curious.... did you expect him to have worse than the worst season of his career?

I watch way too much baseball, the Twins and snippets from other teams as well. Sanchez was really brutal behind the plate for the Yankees, to the point where several pitchers demanded a different catcher when they started. The issue was growing. One had to feel bad for Sanchez because he plays whenever he is asked to play and rarely sits due to an injury. Gary looked renewed as a player for the Twins compared to his last two Yankee years. My comment is specific to his catching. I actually think he was acceptable last season and  appreciated that he was available all year. Christian Vasquez, however, should be a major upgrade behind the plate. 

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Moving on from Sanchez was a big plus..............losing Urshela was a big negative.   Have yet to address pen , guy like Chafin would be a big signing I believe.   Getting Maeda back could be a massive improvement if he's healthy and effective.  Defensively at 3b we will be going backwards with Miranda.  And like a poster above stasted , how could Pagan possibly be worse??????

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29 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

I watch way too much baseball, the Twins and snippets from other teams as well. Sanchez was really brutal behind the plate for the Yankees, to the point where several pitchers demanded a different catcher when they started. The issue was growing. One had to feel bad for Sanchez because he plays whenever he is asked to play and rarely sits due to an injury. Gary looked renewed as a player for the Twins compared to his last two Yankee years. My comment is specific to his catching. I actually think he was acceptable last season and  appreciated that he was available all year. Christian Vasquez, however, should be a major upgrade behind the plate. 

I think this is fair. After seeing things coming out of NY on Sanchez, I was expecting him to be really dreadful behind the plate. So while he wasn't great back there, I think he would have been acceptable if his hitting had come back around and ticked up a bit from 2021. instead he fell off further at the plate, and if he's not slugging then he's just not that good of a player. Vazquez has pretty good odds of turning in roughly the same offensive performance (not great, but fine for a catcher) with significantly better defense.

Was hoping for a better bounce from sanchez, and really thought getting him out of NY was going to help. he certainly seemed happier? he also seems like a good dude, so hopefully he lands somewhere where they can work with his swing and get him back on track a bit.

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I like trading for cron at first. Profar would improve left field. Lopez would be my top pitcher to get. I would try to hang on to arraez if possible. But Kepler, larnach, pagain, farmer and some minor league players could be traded.  Bring back Fulmer and add chafin to the bullpen. Try to keep kirloff and gordon. I think that would improve the team.

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On paper, this is the same team that was in first place a large chunk of the year with a whole lot of talent on the DL.  Vasquez, Gallo, and Farmer are all moves to improve or raise the floor.

Yes, there is a lot of "prove it" coming off the DL, especially with the pitching staff.  But if those guys just perform at their pre-injury level, your improvement is right there,

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8 hours ago, h2oface said:

If the players stay on the field and play, then we improve just because of that. It wouldn't be hard to improve the performance of Mahle and Paddack (and Maeda) from nothing to something. Can Pagan get worse? Three years running as one of the worst relievers in MLB says yes. "Tell me about the rabbits stuff again, George......" And don't forget the long term core contract - Randy Dobnak will finally be ready again, right?. I don't see a big improvement. The FO is going on hope and potential, and hoping for health. If Buxton stays on the field, Kepler isn't traded and benefits from the no shift rules, Correa actually plays well all year..... it could be great. 

Gallo for Kepler? I don't see it. Gallo has replaced Sano at the plate. Not too exciting

h2  thank you for working John Steinbeck's writing into your response. That was awesome. 

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The question is, "Did the Twins improve the roster so far, over the winter offseason?" It is the Twins at the end of the 2022 season vs. the Twins now. Have the Twins improved over the winter? At the end of 2022 the Twins did not have a SS. Period. The Twins only had Jeffers at catcher, and no other prospects for catcher. Period. The OF was in shambles due to injuries.  Two key pitchers Maeda and Mahle are closer to being healthy. Kirilloff is closer to being healthy. Lewis and Paddock are closer to being healthy. Martin had a good fall season. And Buck is back. Hell yes the Twins are better now than when the 2022 season ended. 

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We assume it is Gallo over Kepler, as we assume he will get moved, but it should be Gallo over other 4th OF options.  Not saying Gallo is 4th OF, but he will start any of the 3 positions, pushing someone out or down the list.  If he can regain his Texas form, he will be a boon to our offense, but at least he can put up big defense either way. 

Correa is a push because he is who we had last year.  

Is Farmer better than Urshela that is the only other real addition we have had.  Maybe the one we should talk about is the change in medical staff, if they can keep our team on the field and healthy that will make a huge difference. 

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6 hours ago, weitz41 said:

I'd say the pitching and catching is improved. Maybe the BP depending on where Maeda ends up. Assuming good health, which after last years I wouldn't want to plan on. Mahle, Maeda and Lopez should be upgrades over Bundy, Archer and Smith. Vázquez is a defensive improvement over Sanchez.

Gallo is essentially an outfield version of Sano. This move I can not get behind...Yes I know he plays better defense. He may take at bats away from the other 6? left handed corner outfielders. If the plan is to trade an outfielder or two, Adding another redundant outfielder can not improve their trade value... Plus we still IMO need a right hand power bat and may have been better off keeping Sano around than signing Gallo.

So depending on health I think the pitching is improved. Infield (no urshela) probably worse. Outfield better defense worse offense.

Think of Gallo as a replacement for Kepler. Gallo has a career OPS that is 50 points higher than Kepler. He has 2 Gold Gloves (at least 1 in RF) to Kepler's couple of nominations. So, slight improvement. It was obvious, last year, that having Kepler and Sano in the lineup wasn't a good thing. Removing Sano, some improvement. Slightly improving the Kepler hole is a good thing. Yes, they need a right-handed bat in the outfield, but finding an improvement over Garlick shouldn't be that difficult. I don't know about you, but, to me, Sano didn't seem to be coachable or motivated, and he surely can't play in the outfield.

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Two quick points here:

1] The Twins just aren't done making moves yet. So I believe the OP is 2-3 weeks early.

2] I don't feel "this winter" is accurate as I believe the topic really should be "have the Twins improved over the opening day roster from last year? Again, with the caveat, the Twins aren't done yet.

That being said up front, they are ABSOLUTELY better than the opening day 2022 roster.

While "return to good health" almost dominates any further discussion, having Mahle and Maeda over Bundy and Archer is a huge improvement. Then, we add Winder, Varland, and SWR to the discussion after some ML experience and continued growth and experience and the rotation is seemingly in much better hands.

Duran is now a proven stud. Lopez doesn't have to maintain the incredible and almost impossible 1st half he had with Baltimore to be very good. Jax really found a home in the pen and has room to grow. Moran, while a little inconsistent, flashed and showed he can be part of the pen in a good and potentially excellent way if he can harness/develop his slider more. This time last year, Duran, Jax, and Moran were all question marks. I'm seeing a path where Sands, Henriquez, Winder, Dobnak, even Varland and SWR could all be possibilities at some point as middle/long men. (A couple milb signings MIGHT surprise and do well in this role as well). Based on his talent and 2nd half of 2021...and a few brief glimpses early in 2022...I think Alcala could end up making a big difference. I would attempt a pretty bad and humorous gig if the Twins would drop another $6/7-13/14M by add one or two available arms to the pen to NOT have to count on a couple of the young arms right out of the gate...and be rid of Pagan for whatever they can get for him. But I like this pen better than the one that began 2022.

Is the infield better? I liked Urshela a lot, but see the reasoning for moving on. IMO, Miranda will be better, and OK, at 3B with a better bat. Overall push there. But Farmer provides a nice role player we didn't really have last year. Arraez did a fine job at 1B. A healthy Polaco is a very, very good ballplayer. IF Kirilloff is really ready to go...from day one or not...he really changes the complexion of the infield. (While helping in the OF as well). Overall, the infield is no worse, but maybe better with Farmer on hand, and definitely better with a healthy AK.

Sanchez was not as bad as I expected defensively. But his offense left a ton to be desired. I think Vasquez IS an improvement due to defense and game calling. He also provides "help" and experience for Jeffers the way Castro did for Garver a few years ago. Hopefully, like Garver before him, Jeffers can relax a little bit, continue to grow in his game, and start to reach his offensive potential with less pressure and build on his 500 career AB.

Right now, TODAY, I see little to no improvement in the OF. I see POTENTIAL improvement in the OF BEYOND just better health in regard to Larnach, AK, and even Buxton, BUT, don't see IMMEDIATE improvement. I'm not sold on Gallo. But numbers are numbers over several seasons. Gallo is a different hitter than Kepler. But despite his horrendous 2022, Gallo still has a higher OB%! SLG%, and career OPS over Kepler. (50 point advantage in OPS). And Gallo is an excellent defender. He's AT LEAST a slight improvement over Max if we get the previous 2017-2021 version of him. There's a gamble there, to be sure, but a potential payoff. But for the 3rd year in a row, where is the RH option to just balance the OF? Martin isn't ready. Celestino has been pushed twice to the ML club when nit ready and could really use time to round off some rough edges and fully develop his potential. And Garlick...at least temporarily removed from the roster...has been lone RH bat with power and production  WHEN HEALTHY enough to do so on a 25-35% opportunity to face LHP. Is it really so hard to find a single, decent, RH OF and bat who can play decent defense, be good against LHP, and not just embarrass themselves against RHP once in a while?

I DO think the roster, right NOW, is better than the one that began 2022. But I also say, again, we're going to have this exact same OP when ST begins and some additional changes have been made. Just crossing my fingers until then those moves included a decent RH bat option, one more quality pen arm, and a "wait and see" attitude as to whether a SP option is made that actually makes sense for potential improvement. 

 

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16 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Two quick points here:

1] The Twins just aren't done making moves yet. So I believe the OP is 2-3 weeks early.

2] I don't feel "this winter" is accurate as I believe the topic really should be "have the Twins improved over the opening day roster from last year? Again, with the caveat, the Twins aren't done yet.

That being said up front, they are ABSOLUTELY better than the opening day 2022 roster.

While "return to good health" almost dominates any further discussion, having Mahle and Maeda over Bundy and Archer is a huge improvement. Then, we add Winder, Varland, and SWR to the discussion after some ML experience and continued growth and experience and the rotation is seemingly in much better hands.

Duran is now a proven stud. Lopez doesn't have to maintain the incredible and almost impossible 1st half he had with Baltimore to be very good. Jax really found a home in the pen and has room to grow. Moran, while a little inconsistent, flashed and showed he can be part of the pen in a good and potentially excellent way if he can harness/develop his slider more. This time last year, Duran, Jax, and Moran were all question marks. I'm seeing a path where Sands, Henriquez, Winder, Dobnak, even Varland and SWR could all be possibilities at some point as middle/long men. (A couple milb signings MIGHT surprise and do well in this role as well). Based on his talent and 2nd half of 2021...and a few brief glimpses early in 2022...I think Alcala could end up making a big difference. I would attempt a pretty bad and humorous gig if the Twins would drop another $6/7-13/14M by add one or two available arms to the pen to NOT have to count on a couple of the young arms right out of the gate...and be rid of Pagan for whatever they can get for him. But I like this pen better than the one that began 2022.

Is the infield better? I liked Urshela a lot, but see the reasoning for moving on. IMO, Miranda will be better, and OK, at 3B with a better bat. Overall push there. But Farmer provides a nice role player we didn't really have last year. Arraez did a fine job at 1B. A healthy Polaco is a very, very good ballplayer. IF Kirilloff is really ready to go...from day one or not...he really changes the complexion of the infield. (While helping in the OF as well). Overall, the infield is no worse, but maybe better with Farmer on hand, and definitely better with a healthy AK.

Sanchez was not as bad as I expected defensively. But his offense left a ton to be desired. I think Vasquez IS an improvement due to defense and game calling. He also provides "help" and experience for Jeffers the way Castro did for Garver a few years ago. Hopefully, like Garver before him, Jeffers can relax a little bit, continue to grow in his game, and start to reach his offensive potential with less pressure and build on his 500 career AB.

Right now, TODAY, I see little to no improvement in the OF. I see POTENTIAL improvement in the OF BEYOND just better health in regard to Larnach, AK, and even Buxton, BUT, don't see IMMEDIATE improvement. I'm not sold on Gallo. But numbers are numbers over several seasons. Gallo is a different hitter than Kepler. But despite his horrendous 2022, Gallo still has a higher OB%! SLG%, and career OPS over Kepler. (50 point advantage in OPS). And Gallo is an excellent defender. He's AT LEAST a slight improvement over Max if we get the previous 2017-2021 version of him. There's a gamble there, to be sure, but a potential payoff. But for the 3rd year in a row, where is the RH option to just balance the OF? Martin isn't ready. Celestino has been pushed twice to the ML club when nit ready and could really use time to round off some rough edges and fully develop his potential. And Garlick...at least temporarily removed from the roster...has been lone RH bat with power and production  WHEN HEALTHY enough to do so on a 25-35% opportunity to face LHP. Is it really so hard to find a single, decent, RH OF and bat who can play decent defense, be good against LHP, and not just embarrass themselves against RHP once in a while?

I DO think the roster, right NOW, is better than the one that began 2022. But I also say, again, we're going to have this exact same OP when ST begins and some additional changes have been made. Just crossing my fingers until then those moves included a decent RH bat option, one more quality pen arm, and a "wait and see" attitude as to whether a SP option is made that actually makes sense for potential improvement. 

 

Who will DH? A mishmash of whoever is healthy or the American League batting champion?

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